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News: - I got the job. - I am now very busy. - I haven't forgotten my roots, so I have updated my local files with 2017 data and will soon push an update to all of the apps. In the meantime, here are some observations. Best 2017 by Game Score* (typical quality of whole games, rushing only) 1. Alvin Kamara 2. Kareem Hunt 3. Alex Collins 4. Mark Ingram 5. Todd Gurley 6. Dion Lewis 7. Corey Grant (this year's Antone Smith) 8. Aaron Jones 9. Kenyan Drake 10 Austin Ekeler Worst 2017 by Game Score* 142. Jonathan Stewart 141. Doug Martin 140. Adrian Peterson 139. DeAndre Washington 138. Samaje Perine 137. Jamaal Williams 136. Leonard Fournette 135. DeMarco Murray 134. Chris Ivory 133. Matt Forte Best 2017 by Expected Points Added* (contribution to team, in expected points of the state of play before and after the carry) 1. Alvin Kamara 2. Dion Lewis 3. Kareem Hunt 4. Mark Ingram 5. Zeke 6. Corey Grant 7. Aaron Jones 8. Duke Johnson 9. Todd Gurley 10. Jordan Howard (Breida, Collins, Fournette, Rex, Lynch also had good showings this year) Worst 2017 by Expected Points Added* 142. Jerick McKinnon 141. Adrian Peterson 140. Jonathan Stewart 139. Chris Ivory 138. Thomas Rawls (oof) 137. DeMarco Murray 136. Jay Ajayi 135. Ameer Abdullah 134. Matt Forte 133. Shane Vereen Best 2017 by Success Rate* (proportion of rushing plays with a positive EPA) 1. Gilly 2. Dion Lewis 3. Todd Gurley 4. Alfred Morris 5. Devonta Freeman 6. Zeke 7. Alvin Kamara 8. Wayne Gallman 9. Duke Johnson 10. Mark Ingram Worst 2017 by Success Rate* (proportion of rushing plays with a negative EPA) 142. Paul Perkins 141. Chris Ivory 140. Ameer Abdullah 139. Elijah McGuire 138. Bilal Powell 137. Kerwynn Williams 136. Doug Martin 135. DeMarco Murray 134. Thomas Rawls 133. Chris Johnson *adjusted for variance and sample size using Best Linear Unbiased Prediction Forever_Peace fucked around with this message at 03:51 on Jan 4, 2018 |
# ? Jan 4, 2018 01:28 |
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# ? May 15, 2024 03:29 |
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Alvin Kamara Leonard Fournette Christian McCaffrey Joe Mixon Kareem Hunt Matt Breida
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# ? Jan 4, 2018 03:01 |
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Rip rawls Maybe cable will get canned and we get a real o line next year
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# ? Jan 4, 2018 03:55 |
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Data stack and all apps updated with 2017 data Reminder here on how to use the apps. List of apps here. Raw data can be downloaded here.
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# ? Jan 6, 2018 21:30 |
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Dion Lewis:. Best running back of all generations, or just his generation?
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# ? Jan 6, 2018 21:32 |
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Hierarchical clustering of players who took a rushing attempt in 2017 (cluster relationships determined by data going back to 2009, plus combine measures). Inputs: - run distribution - average game score and variance in game scores - active run share (usage when playing) - run/pass balance - inside/outside run ratio - speed score (weight-adjusted 40 time) and draft weight
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# ? Jan 6, 2018 22:06 |
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Gumbel2Gumbel posted:Dion Lewis:. Best running back of all generations, or just his generation? Lol. He had a pretty good year. Current comps for his career so far:
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# ? Jan 6, 2018 22:11 |
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Denver defense: still good against the run.
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# ? Jan 6, 2018 22:13 |
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Were the panthers the best? Who was worst? Have you been able to isolate standout defensive guys by tracking them if they switch teams, or is that too team-scheme-dependent and maybe premature on data collection too? I know the seahawks D fell apart this year from injuries, did runners get noticeably better against us over the season?
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# ? Jan 7, 2018 10:56 |
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got any sevens posted:Were the panthers the best? Who was worst? Have you been able to isolate standout defensive guys by tracking them if they switch teams, or is that too team-scheme-dependent and maybe premature on data collection too? I know the seahawks D fell apart this year from injuries, did runners get noticeably better against us over the season? The appropriate way to isolate particular players is with the player tracking type work, which I unfortunately don't have access to (though I was eventually able to cajole Matt Harmon into pursuing some of my ideas on low-hanging fruit to pick for running back stacks, like "clock time behind the line of scrimmage per run" as a measure of LevBell-like patience). The distribution plots do give an indication about which unit is important to the defense, though. Teams with good D-Lines tend to suppress the length of runs in the 1-5 yard range, while teams with good run-stopping linebackers and strong safeties tend to cut off the proportion of long runs (~7+) in a "bend don't break" style defense. The Quick Hit on defenses talks a bit about this (on website). I did, however, re-run my CAPARE model after your question. This stands for "Context- and Player- Adjusted Rushing Expected yards". As a reminder: 1) We're only looking at defense against rushing attempts by running backs (and exclude attempts by quarterbacks and wide receivers). 2) We're excluding 4th down rushing attempts (because they tend to be strange - the goal usually isn't to gain "yards" plural, but to fall forward for just one yard). 3) We're ranking teams based on the strength of the statistical evidence in favor of their difference from the league average, not necessarily their estimated impact on average yards per carry against. 4) We're controlling for context effects on each and every single rushing attempt, including adjustments for down and distance, field position, and score differential for each half (and overtime). 5) We're adjusting for the estimated quality of the running backs being defended against. For running backs with small sample sizes, we assume that they are probably about average, while for running backs with larger sample sizes, we increasingly rely on their track record (in technical terms, we include a "random effect" term for running backs). By this measure, 2017 was actually a really great year for run defenses. Five of the top-20 run defenses since 2009 were from this past year, and MIN just missed the list. This included: 4. ARI 8. PHI 11. TEN 13. CLE 18. DEN 21. MIN #1 overall is still Denver 2015, and it isn't remotely close. Worst defense this year was the Rams, but nobody was even close to the worst from previous years. NO 2012, CHI 2013, TB 2011 are still the three worst in the database. Forever_Peace fucked around with this message at 16:57 on Jan 7, 2018 |
# ? Jan 7, 2018 16:30 |
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follow-up: here's Carolina this year, since you asked. Blue is league-average since 2009, red is Carolina. This is typical of a great D-Line. Average defense stops about a fifth of all runs for no gain. Carolina stopped about a quarter.
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# ? Jan 7, 2018 20:18 |
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I just saw that the nfldb and nflgame github repos were marked unmaintained by the owner. So sad. Did anyone take over on a new fork, or is there a good alternative free, python-friendly nfl data source now? There’s a couple kaggle datasets of questionable quality.
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# ? Mar 10, 2018 04:01 |
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Oh man, that sucks! All the teams moving around are almost certain to break the update mechanism without manual workarounds. I don't know of anything else that is free, unfortunately.
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# ? Mar 12, 2018 16:09 |
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Forever_Peace posted:Oh man, that sucks! All the teams moving around are almost certain to break the update mechanism without manual workarounds. Hey, how good was the Eagles' committee this year? I heard it was surprisingly good for who was working it
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# ? Mar 12, 2018 16:16 |
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quote:There is approximately a 15% chance that Adrian Peterson actually broke Dickerson's record, but it was not noticed due errors accumulated by rounding the lengths of rushes to integer values. http://dumbmatter.com/2013/01/did-a...surement-error/
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# ? May 4, 2018 14:25 |
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Ignores red zone differences. How many rushes did each man have that were measured to fractions of a yard, and/or crossed the goal line? e. actually "how many" isn't important. Just, the analysis should exclude yards that were measured precisely and only apply a curve to yards that were rounded. It might be quite a chore, but presumably the "precise" yards can be counted by looking at all rushes beginning or ending within the 1 yard line, right? Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 23:14 on May 4, 2018 |
# ? May 4, 2018 23:11 |
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Forever_Peace posted:Sorry guys. =( The next chapter has been 90% done for quite a while, but a couple of data science job opportunities opened up that I wanted to pursue, which has been eating a lot of my time. You arouse me, mentally and sexually. I hope you get that job!
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# ? May 5, 2018 02:16 |
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# ? May 15, 2024 03:29 |
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Is Melvin Gordon bad or is the line still just lovely?
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# ? May 8, 2018 23:23 |