Climate Change: Post up your Phd. dissertation, coward

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navyjack: Jul 15, 2006

How are u posted:

I've always figured that Alaska will come out in a pretty OK spot. Yeah, things are going to get really hosed up really quick with the accelerated rate of change in the Arctic, but once that shakes out it should be in pretty nice climate zone, no?

Isn�t Alaska going to be a giant, horrible swamp when the permafrost melts?

# ? May 4, 2018 07:46

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# ? May 13, 2024 22:27

yaffle: Sep 15, 2002; Flapdoodle

navyjack posted:

Isn�t Alaska going to be a giant, horrible swamp when the permafrost melts?

I assumed most of it would wash away leaving behind a gravelly muddy wasteland with starving bears.

# ? May 4, 2018 07:52

StabbinHobo: Oct 18, 2002; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

ahh the "how can i profit off this" bargaining phase

you can't. you can't know what will happen in any given micro-climate, and you can't know how the communities/govts/infrastructure will react. remember land doesn't have value just because of weather, its mostly down to civil infrastructure and surrounding industry. if you were capable of accurately predicting any of that you'd already be filthy rich.

if you want to profit off of climate change it really easy: work for an oil and gas company or defense contractor , live in a single family detached house, own and drive one or more gasoline burning vehicles daily, fly around the world for vacation regularly, and eat plenty of red meat. most of us are *already* maxxing out the "gently caress you, i'll get mine" line of reasoning, thats what got us here.

# ? May 4, 2018 12:57

Nocturtle: Mar 17, 2007

StabbinHobo posted:

ahh the "how can i profit off this" bargaining phase

If you don't have any good ideas just say so!

call to action posted:

I learned about HVDC in this thread and it sounds like such a good idea, of course we can't have it

Not only is a national HVDC transmission system probably not going to happen, but even baby-steps towards such a system are viciously opposed by established commercial interests:

Press Herald posted:

Unexpected foes emerge to CMP�s plan to build transmission line to Canada
Updated March 28, 2018
New opposition is ramping up to Central Maine Power�s proposal to build a 145-mile transmission line through western Maine, coming from interests who own fossil-fuel power plants in the state, as well as those who want to build wind and solar farms.

Recently:

Press Herald posted:

Opponents file arguments with state to scuttle or reshape CMP plan for 145-mile power line
Updated May 2, 2018
Opponents of a plan to build a 145-mile transmission line through western Maine filed their objections with state regulators Monday in a bid to kill or at least reshape the major regional energy project proposed by Central Maine Power�s parent company.

In testimony filed with the Maine Public Utilities Commission, critics of the plan to bring hydropower from Quebec to Massachusetts argued that:

� Maine power plants, including Wyman Station in Yarmouth, could close, and hundreds of jobs and more than $5 million in property tax revenue would be lost.

� Several Maine wind and solar projects could be canceled, too, because the line would be designed like an interstate highway from Canada with no on-ramps in Maine for other generated power.

� Despite being labeled a clean project, the line wouldn�t really lower carbon emissions that accelerate climate change because no new hydropower facilities would be built, meaning fossil-fuel power plants outside New England would be called on to backfill demand in New York state and elsewhere created by the diversion of power to Massachusetts.

Upgrading transmission infrastructure to increase renewable usage is apparently controversial.

# ? May 4, 2018 13:59

plushpuffin: Jan 10, 2003; Fratercula arctica; Nap Ghost

It seems like it would be easier and more of a sure thing to bet against areas that will get hosed up. Florida, Bangladesh, etc.

Is it possible to short real estate?

# ? May 4, 2018 15:59

Stairmaster: Jun 8, 2012

https://twitter.com/JaxAlemany/status/992393456470327296?s=19

Hmmm

# ? May 4, 2018 16:03

Feral Integral: Jun 6, 2006; YOSPOS

Stairmaster posted:

https://twitter.com/JaxAlemany/status/992393456470327296?s=19

Hmmm

Yeah this summer is going to be really really rough for the poor folks in that region https://www.democracynow.org/2018/5/4/headlines/india_death_toll_from_extreme_weather_rises_to_127

# ? May 4, 2018 16:23

VideoGameVet: May 14, 2005; It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

Stairmaster posted:

https://twitter.com/JaxAlemany/status/992393456470327296?s=19

Hmmm

Approaching that 95�F wet-bulb temp, not good.

# ? May 4, 2018 17:24

Freakazoid_: Jul 5, 2013; Buglord

navyjack posted:

Isn�t Alaska going to be a giant, horrible swamp when the permafrost melts?

There's already mosquito swarms thick enough to drain the life out of any unprotected mammal in certain parts. Imagine that but every day of the year at twilight, rolling into anchorage like a horde of tiny vampires, sucking the life out of every living thing not completely sealed in their home.

# ? May 4, 2018 21:43

plushpuffin: Jan 10, 2003; Fratercula arctica; Nap Ghost

So the future for Alaska is 30 Days of Night?

# ? May 4, 2018 22:31

Thug Lessons: Dec 14, 2006; I lust in my heart for as many dead refugees as possible.

VideoGameVet posted:

Yet another fruitless debate with a "renewable energy won't work" idiot on FB.

I find this debate confusing, but the "idiot" seems to be trying, fruitlessly, to explain capacity factor to you. Here it is in comic form.

Nuclear advocates will sometimes oversell nuclear's capacity factor, because it's not necessarily a good thing it's 90% of nameplate capacity. It's only that high because it's very difficult to turn nuclear plants on and off to follow load. But that said, your FB friend is still essentially right, because the nameplate capacity translates to different amounts of energy produced depending on the source.

# ? May 7, 2018 16:54

Thug Lessons: Dec 14, 2006; I lust in my heart for as many dead refugees as possible.

Potato Salad posted:

The "end of life" tweets have nothing to do with a conversation about civilization. Aggravation of violence is not predicated by full biosphere collapse.

AR5 authors on conflict aggravation sing a different song. A psychopath deflects a discussion about human concerns with the answer "Not all life will be destroyed."

Like fishmech, you're clearly very well technically read.

I didn't deflect on anything. I responded to an article claiming climate change will cause "the end of most life" by posting a response from an IPCC scientist calling it alarmist and unscientific. Now you're changing the subject to something different because the old claim was shot down.

# ? May 7, 2018 17:04

VideoGameVet: May 14, 2005; It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

Thug Lessons posted:

I find this debate confusing, but the "idiot" seems to be trying, fruitlessly, to explain capacity factor to you. Here it is in comic form.

Nuclear advocates will sometimes oversell nuclear's capacity factor, because it's not necessarily a good thing it's 90% of nameplate capacity. It's only that high because it's very difficult to turn nuclear plants on and off to follow load. But that said, your FB friend is still essentially right, because the nameplate capacity translates to different amounts of energy produced depending on the source.

There is this thing called storage and as I claimed, much of the cost of nuke/coal/gas is externalized to the public in the form of taxes and fees to clean up and treat the outcomes (like building sea walls eventually).

# ? May 7, 2018 19:57

Hello Sailor: May 3, 2006; we're all mad here

VideoGameVet posted:

There is this thing called storage and as I claimed, much of the cost of nuke/coal/gas is externalized to the public in the form of taxes and fees to clean up and treat the outcomes (like building sea walls eventually).

You probably should have read the linked wikipedia article.

# ? May 7, 2018 20:38

Cingulate: Oct 23, 2012; by Fluffdaddy

VideoGameVet posted:

There is this thing called storage and as I claimed, much of the cost of nuke/coal/gas is externalized to the public in the form of taxes and fees to clean up and treat the outcomes (like building sea walls eventually).

Thank god storage grows on carbon-eating trees! Which also somehow make solar produce energy at night?

And eventually having to build sea walls is not in fact an externality of nuclear power plants.

# ? May 7, 2018 20:39

VideoGameVet: May 14, 2005; It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

Cingulate posted:

Thank god storage grows on carbon-eating trees! Which also somehow make solar produce energy at night?

And eventually having to build sea walls is not in fact an externality of nuclear power plants.

It is not, but my inflated SDG&E bill is. Due to the utilities inability to keep the SONGS plant operating.

The nuke folks need to stop blaming the hippies and get their act together

... and Germany was stupid to turn them off while still burning coal.

# ? May 7, 2018 21:40

VideoGameVet: May 14, 2005; It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

Back to the fun:

The last time atmospheric carbon dioxide was this high humans didn't exist

The average concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 410.31 parts per million (ppm) for the month of April, according to the Keeling Curve measurement series made at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii.

This marks the first time in the history of the Mauna Loa record that a monthly average has exceeded 410 parts per million. This also represents a 30-percent increase in carbon dioxide concentration in the global atmosphere since the Keeling Curve began in 1958. In March, Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego observed the 60th anniversary of the data series, the first measurements of which were 315 ppm.

The last time atmospheric carbon dioxide levels were this high, millions of years ago, the planet was very different. For one, humans didn�t exist.

# ? May 7, 2018 21:56

Trabisnikof: Dec 24, 2005

Thug Lessons posted:

I find this debate confusing, but the "idiot" seems to be trying, fruitlessly, to explain capacity factor to you. Here it is in comic form.

Nuclear advocates will sometimes oversell nuclear's capacity factor, because it's not necessarily a good thing it's 90% of nameplate capacity. It's only that high because it's very difficult to turn nuclear plants on and off to follow load. But that said, your FB friend is still essentially right, because the nameplate capacity translates to different amounts of energy produced depending on the source.

While that comic is overall correct, note that capacity factors have been shifting since it was made:

https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_6_07_b

[Using 2017 Year]

Nuclear - 92%
Hydro - 45%
Wind - 36%
Solar PV - 27%
Solar Thermal - 22%
Landfill Gas - 70%
Geothermal - 76%
Coal - 53%
Gas Combined Cycle - 55%
Gas Peaker - 9%

We can also expect hydro's capacity factor to decline as climate change and downstream/upstream needs force dams to operate for hydrological needs over power generation.

# ? May 7, 2018 21:57

Thug Lessons: Dec 14, 2006; I lust in my heart for as many dead refugees as possible.

VideoGameVet posted:

There is this thing called storage and as I claimed, much of the cost of nuke/coal/gas is externalized to the public in the form of taxes and fees to clean up and treat the outcomes (like building sea walls eventually).

None of that has anything to do with what I said.

# ? May 7, 2018 22:13

jeeves: May 27, 2001; Deranged Psychopathic
Butler Extraordinaire

How are u posted:

I've always figured that Alaska will come out in a pretty OK spot. Yeah, things are going to get really hosed up really quick with the accelerated rate of change in the Arctic, but once that shakes out it should be in pretty nice climate zone, no?

People who are preppers tend to forget the massive amount of climate refuges that are going to spill into everywhere should poo poo go down.

# ? May 7, 2018 23:00

Evil_Greven: Feb 20, 2007; Whadda I got to,
whadda I got to do
to wake ya up?

To shake ya up,
to break the structure up!?

Just going to drop these here...
https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/993573935513001984
https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/993533996830097409

# ? May 7, 2018 23:34

ToxicSlurpee: Nov 5, 2003; -=SEND HELP=-; Pillbug

jeeves posted:

People who are preppers tend to forget the massive amount of climate refuges that are going to spill into everywhere should poo poo go down.

Pfft, just buy more guns and build more walls.

# ? May 7, 2018 23:42

Cingulate: Oct 23, 2012; by Fluffdaddy

jeeves posted:

People who are preppers tend to forget the massive amount of climate refuges that are going to spill into everywhere should poo poo go down.

That�s what the guns are for ..?

VideoGameVet posted:

It is not, but my inflated SDG&E bill is. Due to the utilities inability to keep the SONGS plant operating.

The nuke folks need to stop blaming the hippies and get their act together

... and Germany was stupid to turn them off while still burning coal.

No real disagreement here

It�s a shame. There was nothing to be done: everything looked like not doing that would have cost Merkel the election, which would have left red-green to turn them off even faster. And now our co2 emissions haven�t changed for a decade or two. We really hate nuclear.

# ? May 8, 2018 08:23

double nine: Aug 8, 2013

here's a hopeful lecture.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPjdwH4MWJE

(disclaimer: hope is a lie)

# ? May 8, 2018 18:32

this broken hill: Apr 10, 2018; by Lowtax

if it be your will
if there is a choice
let the rivers fill
let the hills rejoice
let your mercy spill on all these burning hearts in hell
if it be your will
to make us well

# ? May 9, 2018 03:31

call to action: Jun 10, 2016; by FactsAreUseless

it's weird how, even though it hasn't happened yet, there is actually a plausible possibility of one of guy mcpherson's predictions coming true (blue/blue-ish ocean in the arctic, or at least free of multiyear ice)

# ? May 9, 2018 16:13

double nine: Aug 8, 2013

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/994245615939825667

# ? May 9, 2018 17:59

VideoGameVet: May 14, 2005; It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

Yes, I know. Storage required but ...

A recent report from Lazard shows how the costs of producing electricity from various sources are changing. Energy from utility-scale solar plants � plants that produce electricity that feeds into the grid � has seen the biggest price drop: an 86% decrease since 2009.

The cost of producing one megawatt-hour of electricity � a standard way to measure electricity production � is now around $50 for solar power, according to Lazard's math. The cost of producing one megawatt-hour of electricity from coal, by comparison, is $102 � more than double the cost of solar.

https://www.businessinsider.com/solar-power-cost-decrease-2018-5?r=US&IR=T

# ? May 9, 2018 21:21

Thug Lessons: Dec 14, 2006; I lust in my heart for as many dead refugees as possible.

I don't think LCOE really does a good job comparing sources of energy because different sources aren't fungible. Wind and solar don't do the same thing as a coal or gas plant, and neither do the same thing as nuclear. In addition to storage you're going to have to factor in the cost�and emissions�of gas peakers operated to make up for intermittency . They're not shown on that graph but they're one of the most expensive sources of electricity.

# ? May 9, 2018 21:36

VideoGameVet: May 14, 2005; It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

Thug Lessons posted:

I don't think LCOE really does a good job comparing sources of energy because different sources aren't fungible. Wind and solar don't do the same thing as a coal or gas plant, and neither do the same thing as nuclear. In addition to storage you're going to have to factor in the cost�and emissions�of gas peakers operated to make up for intermittency . They're not shown on that graph but they're one of the most expensive sources of electricity.

I'm wondering what the addition of stuff like "pumped storage" incorporated into a simulation of use would do to the pricing.

Also, if you're not worried about Kwh/kg you can come up with some interesting batteries.

# ? May 9, 2018 21:41

Thug Lessons: Dec 14, 2006; I lust in my heart for as many dead refugees as possible.

VideoGameVet posted:

I'm wondering what the addition of stuff like "pumped storage" incorporated into a simulation of use would do to the pricing.

Also, if you're not worried about Kwh/kg you can come up with some interesting batteries.

Pumped water storage? It's great if you have the geography for it. It's like hydro or geothermal in that if you have the resource, great, but you can't just mass-produce it. Meanwhile you can put a gas peaker or batteries almost anywhere.

# ? May 9, 2018 21:46

VideoGameVet: May 14, 2005; It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

Thug Lessons posted:

Pumped water storage? It's great if you have the geography for it. It's like hydro or geothermal in that if you have the resource, great, but you can't just mass-produce it. Meanwhile you can put a gas peaker or batteries almost anywhere.

Yep. Hence my mention of batteries. Once you don't care about weight so much, the cost per KWh of storage can drop.

# ? May 9, 2018 21:48

Thug Lessons: Dec 14, 2006; I lust in my heart for as many dead refugees as possible.

I'm skeptical of any claims like that until industry can deliver it, but if they can, great. Storage is useful for every power source; it's just solar and wind where it's absolutely necessary, at large scale, to follow demand load and to make up for intermittency.

# ? May 9, 2018 22:03

Chadzok: Apr 25, 2002

Thug Lessons posted:

Pumped water storage? It's great if you have the geography for it. It's like hydro or geothermal in that if you have the resource, great, but you can't just mass-produce it. Meanwhile you can put a gas peaker or batteries almost anywhere.

There's a new(ish) system around using, basically, trains on hills/ramps which is essentially the same sort of thing and can be used pretty much anywhere and scaled indefinitely. The efficiency is pretty good too.

# ? May 9, 2018 22:58

Evil_Greven: Feb 20, 2007; Whadda I got to,
whadda I got to do
to wake ya up?

To shake ya up,
to break the structure up!?

Flywheels exist

Also there once was an all-electric car that used a flywheel internally due to limitations at the time.

# ? May 9, 2018 23:00

VideoGameVet: May 14, 2005; It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

Evil_Greven posted:

Flywheels exist

Also there once was an all-electric car that used a flywheel internally due to limitations at the time.

I actually remember this magazine issue.

Only registered members can see post attachments!

# ? May 9, 2018 23:04

Bob Ross Nuke Test: Jul 12, 2016; by Games Forum

VideoGameVet posted:

Yes, I know. Storage required but ...

A recent report from Lazard shows how the costs of producing electricity from various sources are changing. Energy from utility-scale solar plants � plants that produce electricity that feeds into the grid � has seen the biggest price drop: an 86% decrease since 2009.

The cost of producing one megawatt-hour of electricity � a standard way to measure electricity production � is now around $50 for solar power, according to Lazard's math. The cost of producing one megawatt-hour of electricity from coal, by comparison, is $102 � more than double the cost of solar.

https://www.businessinsider.com/solar-power-cost-decrease-2018-5?r=US&IR=T

Wind will tick up, unfortunately. There are several factors at play in the wind industry right now, the major one being a shortage of qualified blade technicians and a large number of blades EOL'ing their warranties for B-level repairs from the manufacturer.

Or, in simpler terms: It's no longer cheap to fix blades, and blades get hosed up real bad on a regular basis.

# ? May 10, 2018 02:20

StabbinHobo: Oct 18, 2002; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

flywheels are just dipshit "i read a blog" internet nonsense. there was only one company that even tried, they got enough blogspam PR that people have heard of it, but they failed. the end.

# ? May 10, 2018 03:16

Owlofcreamcheese: May 22, 2005; Can't post for 9 years!; Buglord

StabbinHobo posted:

flywheels are just dipshit "i read a blog" internet nonsense. there was only one company that even tried, they got enough blogspam PR that people have heard of it, but they failed. the end.

flywheels are a thing that is commonly used like everywhere for like forever for all sorts of things. like 2000 year old potters wheels kept running with a flywheel

# ? May 10, 2018 03:47

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# ? May 13, 2024 22:27

Lambert: Apr 15, 2018; by Fluffdaddy; Fallen Rib

StabbinHobo posted:

flywheels are just dipshit "i read a blog" internet nonsense. there was only one company that even tried, they got enough blogspam PR that people have heard of it, but they failed. the end.

Wow, didn't realize they had blogs back in the fifties! https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gyrobus

# ? May 10, 2018 06:54

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