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TenementFunster posted:~cucked~ Well it is a win-win both of them, US power in the region is diminished, regime change is off the table, and the North Korean economy is almost certainly going to be doing better. In addition, North Korea has the intellectual/infrastructure base to rebuild pretty much anything they need to give up. In addition, it probably will help Chinese-SK relations and may pull SK into more of a neutral position (especially since the SK-Japan rivalry isn't going to end). It very well may be in the next couple of years the only real local bulwarks against Chinese influence are going to be Japan and India (and both defensively minded).
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May 14, 2018 15:31
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Vladimir Putin posted:Yeah I think removing troops from the peninsula is a loss for the US. The Army's presence is already a token force. Aside from joint training they aren't doing poo poo that helps anyone except for Korean titty bar proprietors. Trading a few Army camps for stability is a win.
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May 14, 2018 15:33
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The US is going to be so hurt by the possibility of not maintaining troops in South Korea. We be practically on our knees before the ChiComs.
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May 14, 2018 15:34
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sexpig by night posted:but probably a win for the region as a whole. Sometimes actually walking the whole 'superpower' walk means you take an L to maintain global stability.
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May 14, 2018 15:41
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I think the issue is less the troops themselves, but that US influence on the peninsula is obviously going to decline with peace as the US-ROK alliance becomes more moot (especially if the US ever sides with Japan over the ROK). As it is kind of embarrassing that after years if not decades at this point of banging on about North Korea being the most malevolent country in the world...we make peace with them largely on their terms. and Jong-Un goes from obese madman to forward-thinking statesman.
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May 14, 2018 16:04
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Honestly I think the US-ROK relationship will probably improve without the pressure of constant US-DPRK rhetorical sparring.
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May 14, 2018 16:10
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I’m skeptical of those terms. Trump is the stupidest man alive, but he’s surrounded by warmongers, and this amounts to unilateral surrender.
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May 14, 2018 16:14
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Tacky-rear end Rococco posted:I’m skeptical of those terms. Trump is the stupidest man alive, but he’s surrounded by warmongers, and this amounts to unilateral surrender. Yeah, I am personally just ignoring the details at this point and going with the fact that North Korea could give quite a bit away on paper and this retain their critical goals (making regime change impossible while having at least some economic sanctions lifted).
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May 14, 2018 16:24
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Ardennes posted:I think the issue is less the troops themselves, but that US influence on the peninsula is obviously going to decline with peace as the US-ROK alliance becomes more moot (especially if the US ever sides with Japan over the ROK). I don’t think the US-ROK alliance is going to be threatened until reunification. After all SK still has a nuclear armed neighbor that will probably build up its army as soon as it gets its legs underneath. A reunification would lead to a total reordering of the alliance as the primary goal has been completed and then you really have to determine what the relationship looks like going forward. Edit: also if we make peace on NK terms it’s mostly because of more or less blackmail that they instigated. By the looks of what’s on paper the US is not really liking the ballistic missile program which was started by NK honestly as a way to reach the US with a nuke. Vladimir Putin fucked around with this message at 16:47 on May 14, 2018 |
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May 14, 2018 16:43
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mobby_6kl posted:I doubt everyone else in the region shares that view. yes I don't think the entire region is one massive hivemind, but at the very least there's a fairly significant chunk of SOUTH Koreans who'd be rather happy to see us leave, and that's probably worth acknowledging.
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May 14, 2018 16:49
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sexpig by night posted:yes I don't think the entire region is one massive hivemind, but at the very least there's a fairly significant chunk of SOUTH Koreans who'd be rather happy to see us leave, and that's probably worth acknowledging. If they are saying that because the straight up hate America then that’s understandable. If they are saying that because they think the situation with NK would improve once the US is gone then that’s more confusing.
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May 14, 2018 16:59
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Vladimir Putin posted:If they are saying that because the straight up hate America then that’s understandable. If they are saying that because they think the situation with NK would improve once the US is gone then that’s more confusing. Which is why Japan foists the Marines off on Okinawa.
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May 14, 2018 17:03
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Rent-A-Cop posted:There is a third option and it's that military bases are annoying to live near and full of filthy foreigners. Yeah I don’t disagree. But that’s saying the cost-benefit weighs on getting rid of those annoying foreigners vs the strategic position of NK/SK. Seoul is right up on the border with NK and it is a fantastic futuristic and beautiful city. But whoever decided to locate the capital and the largest and most prosperous city in SK so close to the border wasn’t thinking right. It’s pretty much in a war zone and in my opinion the only way that anybody would have agreed to build such a beautiful infrastructure (foreign and domestic investment) would be if they were sure that it was out of a danger zone of being reduced to rubble. As of the decades after hostilities in the Korean War to now, the guarantor of that was essentially America. So getting rid of those foreigners I think costs you a bit of strategic outlook.
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May 14, 2018 17:09
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Vladimir Putin posted:I don’t think the US-ROK alliance is going to be threatened until reunification. After all SK still has a nuclear armed neighbor that will probably build up its army as soon as it gets its legs underneath. I mean how about if North Korea doesn't start immediately building an army and simply works with the south? What if North Korea, now secure in its own survival and with a growing economy, instead uses peace to its advantage by building more ties with South Korea than return to belligerence? Also, obviously there would have to be a re-ordering, but with what future goal? I mean if the North was still a threat it would be something, but the South kind of has everything they want from the US including a free-trade pact at this point. If anything it may be in South Korea's best interests to lean a little more to China which is going to be (if not already) is the economic powerhouse of the region. Also Seoul was the largest city in South Korea by far after 1953...I doubt they really could move it especially considering how little South Korean infrastructure had into the 1970s. If anything the South Koreans honestly want peace (according to the polls) especially since they will only lose if there is a war and they are probably willing to "look past" the DPRK's faults to a certain degree. If anything Kim showed if you want to get anything from the US, get an ICBM that can land a nuke on Washington DC. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 17:23 on May 14, 2018 |
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May 14, 2018 17:09
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Vladimir Putin posted:
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May 14, 2018 17:12
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Seoul also was, like, you know, the capital of the Joseon Dynasty starting in 14th century. Shocking that the South Koreans decided to use it as their capital at all really.
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May 14, 2018 17:16
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A real thinker that one is.
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May 14, 2018 17:18
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Ardennes posted:I mean how about if North Korea doesn't start immediately building an army and simply tries to reach economic parity (it will take a while)? What if North Korea, now secure in its own survival and with a growing economy, instead uses peace to its advantage by building more ties with South Korea than return to belligerence? If NK reached economic parity with SK that would be a huge loss for SK. Because that would essentially turn the tables. NK would be economically powerful and it would have nuclear weapons and wouldn’t have to resort to ICBM development to dictate terms to SK. Essentially they would switch places from where they are now. That’s my opinion. Can they live just side by side as two separate nations in peace? Maybe. But look at the history of it and the ruling party of NK. I don’t think that is a high possibility. On the flip side, the biggest goal/dream of SK would be to get rid of Kim and reunite as one country. I think they should be driving towards that vs just going to all these smaller goals which may or may not be what they want in the long run.
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May 14, 2018 17:20
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Yeah I am aware of the history of Seoul prior to the Korean War. My point is that there’s no way it would have been able to reach that level of modern development without some guarantor of defense by virtue of its location so close to the border.
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May 14, 2018 17:21
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Vladimir Putin posted:Yeah I am aware of the history of Seoul prior to the Korean War. My point is that there’s no way it would have been able to reach that level of modern development without some guarantor of defense by virtue of its location so close to the border. Uh, that's a bold statement to make without actual backing.
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May 14, 2018 17:23
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sexpig by night posted:yes I don't think the entire region is one massive hivemind, but at the very least there's a fairly significant chunk of SOUTH Koreans who'd be rather happy to see us leave, and that's probably worth acknowledging.
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May 14, 2018 17:25
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Vladimir Putin posted:If NK reached economic parity with SK that would be a huge loss for SK. Because that would essentially turn the tables. NK would be economically powerful and it would have nuclear weapons and wouldn’t have to resort to ICBM development to dictate terms to SK. Essentially they would switch places from where they are now. That’s my opinion. If anything an economically stable North Korea probably would have less reason to want to invade the South, especially since each side would essentially only lose in another war. quote:Can they live just side by side as two separate nations in peace? Maybe. But look at the history of it and the ruling party of NK. I don’t think that is a high possibility. On the flip side, the biggest goal/dream of SK would be to get rid of Kim and reunite as one country. I think they should be driving towards that vs just going to all these smaller goals which may or may not be what they want in the long run. The biggest goal/dream of the SK popululation isn't reuniting the peninsula through force, it just isn't. Most South Koreans want peace and maybe see Kim as ridiculous but don't actually want to fight a war. As for NK being trustworthy, we will see but I suspect much of the belligerence of the North during the 1990s/2000s was due to its clear vulnerability and weakness. It was very clear they were falling behind and really couldn't match the Western technology they would have faced in a war. Now, war seems to be off the table along with regime change, and if anything there is now a incentive for Kim to pretty much let the money roll in.
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May 14, 2018 17:29
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I didn’t say reunite the country through force. It is to reunite the county. Again looking back through history this is an artificial separation of a country through the oddities of the Cold War. It would be absolute tragic if that were to be set in stone forever. There’s an argument that most SK don’t want reunification because of the cost. If that’s so then they are just as stupid as the average American and would rather live in immediate comfort than realize the long term prospects for their people. I sincerely doubt that is so. But I suppose if it is they deserve everything they get.
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May 14, 2018 17:35
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Vladimir Putin posted:I didn’t say reunite the country through force. It is to reunite the county. Again looking back through history this is an artificial separation of a country through the oddities of the Cold War. It would be absolute tragic if that were to be set in stone forever. The only honest way to get rid of Kim is (or at least war) force, and it is off the table. Many South Koreans probably would be up for some type of loose confederation at this point, but getting rid of Kim/regime change just isn't part of that plan now. If anything the plan for reunification is simply for economic and political connections to grow between both governments over time.
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May 14, 2018 17:47
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Ardennes posted:The only honest way to get rid of Kim is (or at least war) force, and it is off the table. I think the political/economic connections approach is tempting but ultimately it’s not going to lead anywhere. For there to be a reunification there’s going to be by definition one government. That government will not be the Kim family and will not be any of the poo poo they’ve been doing to stay in power. I have to admit that there’s a chance, though small, that KJU will come around with greater ties and just agree to cede power and for reunification to go forward. But I don’t see that as being high, especially if the NK/SK split is sort of set in stone indefinitely.
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May 14, 2018 17:58
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https://twitter.com/TimothyS/status/996393060656394240quote:The Moon Jae-in administration has promulgated a series of labor friendly policies such as shortening the country's statutory maximum working hours to 52 a week from the current 68 from July. 
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May 15, 2018 15:20
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Moon is a good egg.
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May 15, 2018 15:31
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woops North Korea cancelled tomorrow's talks with ROK and threatening June's with Trump over military exercises!
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May 15, 2018 19:36
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https://twitter.com/TimothyS/status/996481242542551041quote:The summit agreement, billed the Panmunjom Declaration, called for formally ending the 1950-53 Korean War within the year and pursuing "complete denuclearization" of the Korean Peninsula. They're not wrong. Hopefully Moon finds a way to call off the exercises.
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May 15, 2018 21:28
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Chomskyan posted:https://twitter.com/TimothyS/status/996481242542551041 You really don't seem to get that North Korea has never planned to make serious changes just as the US hasn't, huh.
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May 15, 2018 21:49
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Nothing quite like demanding a showing of good-will prior to negotiations to demonstrate your willingness to come to the table. This does seem to put Trump in quite a precarious position. Does he bend to Un and cancel a military exercise, or does he risk his theoretical bizzaro universe Nobel?
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May 15, 2018 22:26
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Kawasaki Nun posted:Nothing quite like demanding a showing of good-will prior to negotiations to demonstrate your willingness to come to the table. I think he cancels and goes for the Nobel. He can’t help himself. Plus he’s got to beat Obama.
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May 15, 2018 22:45
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Kawasaki Nun posted:This does seem to put Trump in quite a precarious position. Does he bend to Un and cancel a military exercise, or does he risk his theoretical bizzaro universe Nobel?
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May 15, 2018 22:52
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Jeffrey Lewis thinks North Korea's just getting pissed that Trump's people keep talking about how they bullied the North Koreans to the table, and are reminding everyone that they aren't coming to the table on their knees. They seem to have been more understanding about near term exercises at one point, unless the South Koreans were just trying to paper things over by making poo poo up:
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May 15, 2018 23:10
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Invite North Korea to participate in the joint exercises as a show of camaraderie.
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May 15, 2018 23:14
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chitoryu12 posted:Invite North Korea to participate in the joint exercises as a show of camaraderie. 'we tried to invite them but they said something about needing gas money and it got really awkward...'
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May 15, 2018 23:16
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Max Thunder sounds like a gay porn star but you do you US military
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May 15, 2018 23:32
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https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/15/politics/trump-south-korea-olympics/index.html People said any potential signs of a conflict didn’t count unless the US started evacuating families. Turns out Trump was planning to do just that.
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May 15, 2018 23:35
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Sinteres posted:Jeffrey Lewis thinks North Korea's just getting pissed that Trump's people keep talking about how they bullied the North Koreans to the table, and are reminding everyone that they aren't coming to the table on their knees. They seem to have been more understanding about near term exercises at one point, unless the South Koreans were just trying to paper things over by making poo poo up: I doubt the South Koreans made it up. It's simply that North Korea changed their mind to find a pretense to halt talks which they know is very unlikely to be addressed. Which was a thing that's been done very often on all sides when push comes to shove on real peace in Korea.
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May 16, 2018 02:03
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