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brucio posted:Has Eric Grenier ever had an accurate seat projection without giving himself tons of wiggle room? He's giving the OPC 45-80 seats lol One time the election result fell outside his terrible projection even with the enormous wiggle room and he responded by saying "see this proves how right my projection was" lol
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May 30, 2018 14:53
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brucio posted:Has Eric Grenier ever had an accurate seat projection without giving himself tons of wiggle room? He's giving the OPC 45-80 seats lol No, because his whole shtick is digital haruspicy. He hasn't got the data to predict whether the sun will rise tomorrow. vyelkin posted:One time the election result fell outside his terrible projection even with the enormous wiggle room and he responded by saying "see this proves how right my projection was" lol 90% accuracy in the last election, where he predicted anything from a Conservative majority to a Liberal minority.
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May 30, 2018 14:57
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Is Eric Grenier like our version of Nate Silver but with even less confidence in himself?
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May 30, 2018 15:03
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Grenier tries to apply the same analysis to our system that Silver does in the States but it doesn't work in a system with small ridings that flip around between Libs and Cons constantly.
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May 30, 2018 15:05
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I think a bigger factor is the fact that there are 3+ viable parties and it's much harder to predict where votes are going to go
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May 30, 2018 15:27
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Le Saboteur posted:Is Eric Grenier like our version of Nate Silver but with even less confidence in himself? Unfortunately, no. Grenier has even more confidence in himself.
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May 30, 2018 15:33
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brucio posted:I think a bigger factor is the fact that there are 3+ viable parties and it's much harder to predict where votes are going to go A bigger factor is that the US has an enormous number of regular state-level polls and Nate Silver uses state-level polls to predict Senate and presidential races because they're decided by individual states, whereas in Canada all we get are nation-wide or province-wide polls where the sample sizes are too small to make any granular predictions at low levels, so when you try to extrapolate a province-wide result to an individual riding result your margin of error is like +/- 40%.
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May 30, 2018 15:35
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I read a Grenier article recently and it was the most facile kind of statistical analysis imaginable. He compared the federal Liberals polling dip to the historical performance of parties at a similar point in their mandate, and concluded that five of the last seven governments were more popular at this juncture than the Libs. Then he quickly added that most of those governments became less popular later, and that unpopular governments usually bounce back somewhat. It was literally just "here are some vague patterns with absolutely no analysis of the underlying cause and zero predictive power, carefully phrased so that I seem to predict nothing and everything at the same time".
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May 30, 2018 15:39
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vyelkin posted:A bigger factor is that the US has an enormous number of regular state-level polls and Nate Silver uses state-level polls to predict Senate and presidential races because they're decided by individual states, whereas in Canada all we get are nation-wide or province-wide polls where the sample sizes are too small to make any granular predictions at low levels, so when you try to extrapolate a province-wide result to an individual riding result your margin of error is like +/- 40%. Same reason why Silver doesn't do congressional races.
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May 30, 2018 15:40
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Helsing posted:I read a Grenier article recently and it was the most facile kind of statistical analysis imaginable. He compared the federal Liberals polling dip to the historical performance of parties at a similar point in their mandate, and concluded that five of the last seven governments were more popular at this juncture than the Libs. Then he quickly added that most of those governments became less popular later, and that unpopular governments usually bounce back somewhat. How triggered do you get when you hear the phrase "If an election were held today..."
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May 30, 2018 15:43
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PCPO has moved on to the "literally just making things up about our opponents" stage https://twitter.com/OntarioPCParty/status/1001576646502121478
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May 30, 2018 15:48
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lmao https://twitter.com/TGranicAllen/status/1001839166122901504
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May 30, 2018 15:57
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infernal machines posted:PCPO has moved on to the "literally just making things up about our opponents" stage I think one of the funniest things about the Ontario PC party twitter is that their tweets regularly get ratioed.
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May 30, 2018 15:58
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The next time I hear the phrase “in the national interest” i’m fit to fly into a rage. Is there anything more patronizing to voters and ultimately hypocritical than this bullshit?
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May 30, 2018 16:00
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 https://twitter.com/Mrmikeus/status/1001842017448570880
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May 30, 2018 16:12
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Le Saboteur posted:Is Eric Grenier like our version of Nate Silver but with even less confidence in himself? Grenier is shittier Nate Silver, both in his capabilities and also because there aren't enough polls to make a reliable model simple analysis is that the election is swingy: NDP theoritically has a popular vote margin of victory but much shittier voter distribution so PC government is very likely (reminds you of something eh)
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May 30, 2018 16:13
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also apparently the NDP candidate in my riding is crazy alternative medicine magnets will cure your cancer person welp the NDP srsly did not vet their candidates well enough probably because they figured they had no chance in the 905 before a month ago Typo fucked around with this message at 16:16 on May 30, 2018 |
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May 30, 2018 16:13
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Typo posted:Grenier is shittier Nate Silver, both in his capabilities and also because there aren't enough polls to make a reliable model For example Grenier just updated his Tracker with 3 positive polls for the NDP and their chances of winning a majority went down 2-3 points due to bad regional breakdowns in the southwest and Toronto. With our polling generally being pretty weak and sample sizes so small I just don't know how you can trust regional breakdowns that much.
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May 30, 2018 16:16
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Postess with the Mostest posted:This is best if you picture kathleen wynne hitting the drum make sense to me imo, Wynne is just trying to hold on to the centrist liberal base at this point, she's accepted that she's completely lost the left and now the NDP is the anti-FORD party you can't get them back xtal posted:Has the Liberal campaign been this explicitly anti-labour before? Appalling it's the optimal strategy for the liberals: also wynne will not be the party leader after this election so nobody is gonna remember this whenever FORD fucks up enough to be ousted from power Typo fucked around with this message at 16:27 on May 30, 2018 |
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May 30, 2018 16:25
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brucio posted:That took no cojones. They will still vote PC. He says he's going to scrap sex ed and that's what they want. I'd say he hired her just to fire her and appease both the socons and the pc voters who find them repugnant but that's be giving him way too much credit.
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May 30, 2018 16:33
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He fired her because he doesn't give a flying gently caress about the Socons now that he's won the party leadership, because they're fringe even within the PCPO. And as you say, what are they going to do, except vote Alliance/Trillium/whatever in the few ridings where someone is running?
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May 30, 2018 16:38
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infernal machines posted:And as you say, what are they going to do, except vote Alliance/Trillium/whatever in the few ridings where someone is running? Stay home, I hope. Or inject more crazy into the OPC conversation space. 
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May 30, 2018 17:10
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Cast my vote for the NDP in Etobicoke Centre. Fords mistress will probably win here but if by any chance my candidate does win I will be disappointed if she doesn’t introduce a private members bill to drone strike rebellious gun nuts. Also what’s the deal with these weird scanner/shredder ballot box machines? How does that work? Is ford going to get 110 percent of the popular vote or something?
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May 30, 2018 18:06
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Kraftwerk posted:Cast my vote for the NDP in Etobicoke Centre. I swear they had those machines in the last election I voted in as well.
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May 30, 2018 18:09
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Where are you getting information on PC internal polling? Or is it just surmising based on the material they're putting out?
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May 30, 2018 18:28
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"anyone who isn't conservative is ~Radical~"
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May 30, 2018 18:31
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Silver Spooner posted:Where are you getting information on PC internal polling? Or is it just surmising based on the material they're putting out? When I posted about PC internal polling it was just me making a couple connections between the PCs suddenly fear mongering about polls and the fact that Patrick Brown decided to twist the knife all of a sudden in a highly published interview all occurring within days of each other. It looks suspiciously like something might be there but who knows. Le Saboteur fucked around with this message at 18:37 on May 30, 2018 |
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May 30, 2018 18:32
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Silver Spooner posted:Where are you getting information on PC internal polling? Or is it just surmising based on the material they're putting out? They're acting the way parties act when they have bad internal polling but nobody actually knows anything.
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May 30, 2018 18:36
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https://twitter.com/charlesadler/status/1001607727817224193 EXTREMISM
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May 30, 2018 18:51
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There's a sort of irony to the fact that "radical" LGBT people basically created the society that someone like this can exist in. Like it's kind of rad that being gay is something that few people need to hide now, but it sort of sucks that because we've earned that, there's people who will try to speak on behalf with no perspective or empathy for those who still do need to hide, or don't have equal standing/treatment.
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May 30, 2018 18:58
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Oxyclean posted:There's a sort of irony to the fact that "radical" LGBT people basically created the society that someone like this can exist in. Well that and Allen's whole "gay people getting married sickens me" thing, seems like that might be a bit of a problem, but whatever.
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May 30, 2018 19:06
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Oxyclean posted:There's a sort of irony to the fact that "radical" LGBT people basically created the society that someone like this can exist in. being a gay conservative is like black republicans post-1960s or so: it's something the right trots out every cycle as their heros so they can say I have gay/black friend
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May 30, 2018 19:08
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Oxyclean posted:There's a sort of irony to the fact that "radical" LGBT people basically created the society that someone like this can exist in. Also, we need more radical LGBT people to help push the boundaries even further. It's not like we can go overboard on this -- taking the radical LGBT agenda to its conclusion would result in a world where people can be open about their gender and sexuality without fear of being judged. That sounds pretty loving good to me, who are the people who have a problem with this agenda?
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May 30, 2018 19:09
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https://www.ontariopc.ca/plan_for_the_people OPCP platform is up. Oh boy.
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May 30, 2018 19:10
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Was it really that hard to have that done a month ago at least? I'm glad they didn't but still it's impressive how arrogant and/or stupid they are.
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May 30, 2018 19:12
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I wonder if they thought they could try for a late boost in the polls by releasing their platform closer to the election date.
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May 30, 2018 19:14
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 The green butt plug bullet points are a nice touch.
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May 30, 2018 19:21
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That is a terrifying background to put on your platform. Lets just get really fuckin close in there so we can see the lines and pores.
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May 30, 2018 19:23
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infernal machines posted:Well that and Allen's whole "gay people getting married sickens me" thing, seems like that might be a bit of a problem, but whatever. PT6A posted:Also, we need more radical LGBT people to help push the boundaries even further. It's not like we can go overboard on this -- taking the radical LGBT agenda to its conclusion would result in a world where people can be open about their gender and sexuality without fear of being judged. That sounds pretty loving good to me, who are the people who have a problem with this agenda? The people who seem to have a problem with it mostly just seem like (lovely) people who either don't believe in this sort of thing or think it's PC histarics, and LGBT folk are already totally treated fine and equal.
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May 30, 2018 19:25
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