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hummingbird hoedown
Sep 23, 2004


IS THAT A STUPID NEWBIE AVATAR? FUCK NO, YOU'RE GETTING A PENTAR

SKILCRAFT KREW Reppin' Quality Blind Made Products
The banner color at the top of the screen accurately reflects if the stock is up or down for the day overall. But even bigger stocks with higher volume don't make any sense. AAPL shows Puts as gaining value as well when it's clearly not the case. Does anyone else with Robinhood see this and get confused?

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greasyhands
Oct 28, 2006

Best quality posts,
freshly delivered
Robinhood is made by a few silicon valley brats who have no idea what they're doing. Their data is frequently hosed up- it's great for small accounts and free commission but don't use it for research

Jack Daniels
Nov 14, 2002

greasyhands posted:

Robinhood is made by a few silicon valley brats who have no idea what they're doing. Their data is frequently hosed up- it's great for small accounts and free commission but don't use it for research

mods - please put this in the OP somewhere :thanks:

proctorbot
Jan 27, 2005
BUT CAN IT FEEL??!?!
$HUYA earnings on tuesday... getting horny.... "It's Twitch, but CHINA! ESPORTS! CHINA!"

DocuSign earnings on Thursday. "CLOUD! BUSINESS!" Everyone loves cloud. I feel like this is a good company.... thinking about getting some slightly OTM calls :getin:

It's going to be really cool when this current tech bubble pops.

EAT FASTER!!!!!!
Sep 21, 2002

Legendary.


:hampants::hampants::hampants:
I couldn't pick any positions I wanted at the start of this month so I put my long play money in my 2050 instead.

I'm so sorry STM, I've failed you. :smith:

LLCoolJD
Dec 8, 2007

Musk threatens the inorganic promotion of left-wing ideology that had been taking place on the platform

Block me for being an unironic DeSantis fan, too!
I got back in on some CGC. I couldn't resist. The vote happens on June 7th.

Dwight Eisenhower
Jan 24, 2006

Indeed, I think that people want peace so much that one of these days governments had better get out of the way and let them have it.
I honestly can't stop rolling VIX calls.

I don't have a good theory for what's gonna blow up, but I'm highly confident that the theta decay is worth eating to be ready for it.

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord

quote:

AMD 2018-Jul-20 12 Call
STC 15 @ 0.61 Limit
April 27, 2018 at 09:46 AM EST

Time bias, feels bad man :razz:

dougdrums
Feb 25, 2005
CLIENT REQUESTED ELECTRONIC FUNDING RECEIPT (FUNDS NOW)

Dwight Eisenhower posted:

I don't have a good theory for what's gonna blow up, but I'm highly confident that the theta decay is worth eating to be ready for it.
The last two days of last week I definitely got that, "Ok, where do I put my money now? What's cheap?" vibe.

Turns out it was just GDDY puts though.

Dwight Eisenhower
Jan 24, 2006

Indeed, I think that people want peace so much that one of these days governments had better get out of the way and let them have it.

dougdrums posted:

The last two days of last week I definitely got that, "Ok, where do I put my money now? What's cheap?" vibe.

Turns out it was just GDDY puts though.

I worded it poorly, so I mean I have no idea of what's gonna cause widespread economic destruction, but I think it's coming soon enough that the inevitable theta decay implied by holding VIX calls is worth eating because they'll go deep ITM soon enough to be a net gain

jvick
Jun 24, 2008

WE ARE
PENN STATE
My SPY puts last week closed Thursday +7%, opened -20% on Friday, was able to get out -10%.

Money has been rolled to $AMD $15 PUTs for Jun 15 and Jul 20.

dougdrums
Feb 25, 2005
CLIENT REQUESTED ELECTRONIC FUNDING RECEIPT (FUNDS NOW)
Yeah I bought some GLD calls about a few weeks ago for similar reasons -- one of those "worse before it's better" trades -- but I already sold them all except this JUN $131 strike that's still hangin' out before its inevitable fate. I was thinking about VIX calls last week, but the spread is always weird to me so I just bought the puts. I'm not sure there will be anything "permanent", but there seems to be a general uncertainty ...

Oh man I wanna buy AMD puts but I'm a big wuss :ohdear:

LLCoolJD
Dec 8, 2007

Musk threatens the inorganic promotion of left-wing ideology that had been taking place on the platform

Block me for being an unironic DeSantis fan, too!
NTDOY down to about $46/share. Perhaps investors are skittish about potential Sony/Microsoft bombshells at E3? If no Switch killers/rivals are announced at E3 (Microsoft and Sony go first), I may buy some Nintendo if the share price remains depressed before the Nintendo E3 presentation.

Lysandus
Jun 21, 2010
I bought some Apple calls this morning and sold them during lunch up 80%. WWDC is fun day.

Woodchip
Mar 28, 2010
Out of Cron, into Tesla jul 290 puts

Sexual Lorax
Mar 17, 2004

HERE'S TO FUCKING


Fun Shoe
0/2 for -3.5% on SPY scalps today. Bad entry, went the wrong way, I dumped the Calls for Puts for a small loss, and the fucker turned around on me again. Rather than chase my entire way through my dry powder, I'm going to give myself a time out to think about what I've done.

fougera
Apr 5, 2009
What is there to think about?

Sexual Lorax
Mar 17, 2004

HERE'S TO FUCKING


Fun Shoe

fougera posted:

What is there to think about?

Whatever it is kids think about when they're in time out, obviously.

Harry
Jun 13, 2003

I do solemnly swear that in the year 2015 I will theorycraft my wallet as well as my WoW

Dwight Eisenhower posted:

I worded it poorly, so I mean I have no idea of what's gonna cause widespread economic destruction, but I think it's coming soon enough that the inevitable theta decay implied by holding VIX calls is worth eating because they'll go deep ITM soon enough to be a net gain

I remember reading that when gas prices were falling something like $80 billion dollars a month were put back into the tax payers pockets. Now that they've gone up, a year of that might be the cause. Same thing happened in 2006-2007.

I decided to mess around with options on robinhood since I blew up my fidelity options account and also got reamed by fees. Was going to buy MU calls this morning, but got a generic error message blocking me from doing anything. Proceeded go from down 7% to up .4%. All ready getting a taste of getting screwed out of my plays.

greasyhands
Oct 28, 2006

Best quality posts,
freshly delivered

fougera posted:

What is there to think about?

Goddamnit... I zigged when I should have zagged. Next time, when the opportunity presents itself, I will zag. Unless it seems like I should zig. *draws line between 2 points, ponders*

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


Lysandus posted:

I bought some Apple calls this morning and sold them during lunch up 80%. WWDC is fun day.
Haven’t been in AAPL for months, forgot about WWDC, rip

Syrinxx
Mar 28, 2002

Death is whimsical today

fougera posted:

What is there to think about?
clearly he upsed when he should have downsed

Agronox
Feb 4, 2005

Josh Lyman posted:

Haven’t been in AAPL for months, forgot about WWDC, rip

AAPL is just a buy and hold kind of thing. If you watch it trade it can be maddening.

Dwight Eisenhower
Jan 24, 2006

Indeed, I think that people want peace so much that one of these days governments had better get out of the way and let them have it.

Harry posted:

I remember reading that when gas prices were falling something like $80 billion dollars a month were put back into the tax payers pockets. Now that they've gone up, a year of that might be the cause. Same thing happened in 2006-2007.

I decided to mess around with options on robinhood since I blew up my fidelity options account and also got reamed by fees. Was going to buy MU calls this morning, but got a generic error message blocking me from doing anything. Proceeded go from down 7% to up .4%. All ready getting a taste of getting screwed out of my plays.

It's a poor candidate, we're still not at the 07-08 prices, and doubly so when corrected for inflation. I think a good blow up will be presaged by an highly impactful event that undermines conventional wisdoms that are propping up the market and is emotionally shocking, causing investor panic. Some bad candidates:

- A student loan debacle. Where's the actual shock here? This is a problem, and it's a boil a frog problem. It could maybe be the catalyst for a sharp decrease in retirement contributions, leading to retirement fund managers suddenly having fewer dollars to play, but that would have to coincide with boomers leaving the contribution market.
- Boomer retirement. It's not happening in broad strokes, because boomers are so saddled with debt that they continue working into retirement ages.
- Tech bubble explosion. The FANG-explosions isn't going to happen because these companies have real revenues and have been demonstrating real revenues for years.

What kinds of conventional wisdom do we have that are vulnerable to unexpected events?

- The supremacy of US investment. With Trump flinging poo poo on international trade, the advantages of investing in the US market are precarious. If he pokes the wrong country, or tariffs have an unexpected consequence, I anticipate this will presage a large scale failure.
- Real Estate has overcorrected back into an overbought seller's market. This won't blow up like it did last time, but a housing price crash that then leads to secondary effects like e.g. the bay area suddenly having tons of tech workers underwater on their mortgages could gently caress things up royally.
- Some hot conflict. There's enough precariousness on the verge of violence I do think this is worth being concerned about.
- An actual repeat of 07-08 with different finance instruments. Our lovely legislature has thrown open the gates to the mid-00s financial activities that hosed multiple banks over. With those short-sighted activities now openly embraceable, we can get another blowup, and this time the recipes for how to get a bunch of money quickly are well known. The only restraints here are the broad economic consequences, which many people making the decisions won't give a gently caress over. What market will be the focus of this financial malfeasance? Throw a rock in a random direction: between huge negative equity auto loans for near-decade terms, the overbought real estate market, and the student loan problem, there's plenty of good candidates. I don't like student loans as a risk factor, but if people start emigrating from the US to escape their student loans it could rapidly go sour. If Dear Leader pisses off the wrong country, they could potentially gently caress the U.S. by baiting individuals with terrible student loan debt to immigrate.
- A subtle interest rate threshold that precipitates a huge amount of money leaving stocks. If "low risk" returns reach the point where people want to leave stocks in aggregate, it could pull down all kinds of secondary and tertiary derived financial structures with it.

I can't call what will fail, and I think it's likely that whatever does fail isn't on this list. I am skeptical that we've reached an economic utopia where large failures don't occur anymore, and we've gone a historically remarkably long time without one.

Agronox
Feb 4, 2005

I honestly think that barring some geopolitical blowup or constitutional crisis, China will probably lead us into the next recession, particularly their real estate sector.

It’s hard to get a good read on it but it sounds like a classic massive land bubble with Chinese characteristics.

Woodchip
Mar 28, 2010
Short C after bouncing off resistance at 67.5

Cheesemaster200
Feb 11, 2004

Guard of the Citadel

Agronox posted:

I honestly think that barring some geopolitical blowup or constitutional crisis, China will probably lead us into the next recession, particularly their real estate sector.

It’s hard to get a good read on it but it sounds like a classic massive land bubble with Chinese characteristics.

I agree. I keep thinking China is going to have their 1929 moment that signals the end of their "rapid growth of an agricultural society transitioning to industry" phase of development.

The boomers are already retiring (refer to labor participation rate vs. unemployment rates).

Student loans are a political problem, but not currently a financial one. If anything, it is holding back growth as spending is curbed due to repayments. If the next administration lifts the restriction on bankruptcy however...

FANG stocks are frothy, and I could see Trump yielding an anti-trust hammer against them. However that would likely just result in them under-performing the market. They are backed up by earnings, but the multiples on many of them are still very high. You also have the SNAP, TSLA and TWTR stocks of the world which have no earnings and are being powered by hopes and dreams. I could see a loss of faith there leading to a 6-12 month bear market.

Harry
Jun 13, 2003

I do solemnly swear that in the year 2015 I will theorycraft my wallet as well as my WoW

Dwight Eisenhower posted:

It's a poor candidate, we're still not at the 07-08 prices, and doubly so when corrected for inflation. I think a good blow up will be presaged by an highly impactful event that undermines conventional wisdoms that are propping up the market and is emotionally shocking, causing investor panic. Some bad candidates:

It doesn't matter if it's not as high due to inflation, credit card balances are way up as well as student loans. Americans are running at 0 margin once again so any meaningful price increase is going to put a squeeze on them. It probably won't cause a blow up until next year though.

quote:

- A student loan debacle. Where's the actual shock here? This is a problem, and it's a boil a frog problem. It could maybe be the catalyst for a sharp decrease in retirement contributions, leading to retirement fund managers suddenly having fewer dollars to play, but that would have to coincide with boomers leaving the contribution market.
The blow on this is decades away, if ever. While it's a large amount, the US government can take this one to the chin pretty easily.

quote:

- Boomer retirement. It's not happening in broad strokes, because boomers are so saddled with debt that they continue working into retirement ages.
On the other hand this will unlock money in 401k funds and probably be spent, hopefully not all on healthcare.

quote:

- Tech bubble explosion. The FANG-explosions isn't going to happen because these companies have real revenues and have been demonstrating real revenues for years.
Agreed.

What kinds of conventional wisdom do we have that are vulnerable to unexpected events?

quote:

- The supremacy of US investment. With Trump flinging poo poo on international trade, the advantages of investing in the US market are precarious. If he pokes the wrong country, or tariffs have an unexpected consequence, I anticipate this will presage a large scale failure.
I would say the issue with this is where do we go? China is still very antagonistic towards non-citizen investment. Pretty much only allowing it up until they can steal the tech. EU is very antagonistic towards tech, and have their own banking issues due to the northern part basically carrying the southern part. Africa and South America are continuing to do their thing and won't be power houses anytime soon.

quote:

- Real Estate has overcorrected back into an overbought seller's market. This won't blow up like it did last time, but a housing price crash that then leads to secondary effects like e.g. the bay area suddenly having tons of tech workers underwater on their mortgages could gently caress things up royally.
I think this can unwind itself pretty easily. Certain localalities might get hosed over, but doubtful it will be that big of a deal.

quote:

- Some hot conflict. There's enough precariousness on the verge of violence I do think this is worth being concerned about.
- An actual repeat of 07-08 with different finance instruments. Our lovely legislature has thrown open the gates to the mid-00s financial activities that hosed multiple banks over. With those short-sighted activities now openly embraceable, we can get another blowup, and this time the recipes for how to get a bunch of money quickly are well known. The only restraints here are the broad economic consequences, which many people making the decisions won't give a gently caress over. What market will be the focus of this financial malfeasance? Throw a rock in a random direction: between huge negative equity auto loans for near-decade terms, the overbought real estate market, and the student loan problem, there's plenty of good candidates. I don't like student loans as a risk factor, but if people start emigrating from the US to escape their student loans it could rapidly go sour. If Dear Leader pisses off the wrong country, they could potentially gently caress the U.S. by baiting individuals with terrible student loan debt to immigrate.
- A subtle interest rate threshold that precipitates a huge amount of money leaving stocks. If "low risk" returns reach the point where people want to leave stocks in aggregate, it could pull down all kinds of secondary and tertiary derived financial structures with it.
The only thing that's risky is the auto loan business, which might tank a company or bank or two. The interest rates rising do worry me, but it's been telegraphed for 2 years at this point and the fed seems to be keeping a close eye on it. Immigration is actually pretty hard to most countries, and the type of people wanting to bail the US because of student loans most likely aren't the type to be accepted by others. Why would a doctor give up a huge US salary because of student loans so he can make half as much and get taxed 20% more?

I'm not saying a large failure won't happen, but at the moment there don't appear too many obvious triggers. That doesn't mean a 10-20% recession won't happen, but a 50% crash seems unlikely.

1st_Panzer_Div.
May 11, 2005
Grimey Drawer

Dwight Eisenhower posted:

- Real Estate has overcorrected back into an overbought seller's market. This won't blow up like it did last time, but a housing price crash that then leads to secondary effects like e.g. the bay area suddenly having tons of tech workers underwater on their mortgages could gently caress things up royally.

I disagree with everything you said except there is some housing price bubbling. Nowhere near 08 levels, nor is the collapse immanent, but it is stressing to bubble.

Should we be bullish on AMD? Like its just not failing, ever.

Dwight Eisenhower
Jan 24, 2006

Indeed, I think that people want peace so much that one of these days governments had better get out of the way and let them have it.

Cheesemaster200 posted:

You also have the SNAP, TSLA and TWTR stocks of the world which have no earnings and are being powered by hopes and dreams. I could see a loss of faith there leading to a 6-12 month bear market.

I actually like this hypothesis best. If TSLA's financial fuckery comes to a head I think that would be the exact domino getting knocked over to bring a lot down.

I'm also reluctant to call the limit of how far Elon Musk's reality distortion field can carry his various schemes.

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord

1st_Panzer_Div. posted:

I disagree with everything you said except there is some housing price bubbling. Nowhere near 08 levels, nor is the collapse immanent, but it is stressing to bubble.

Should we be bullish on AMD? Like its just not failing, ever.

AMD is hot stuff, some growth in enterprise should send the shorts packing

e: I keep flipping weed for 30-35 cents today. The sell wall is enormous :henget:

Risky Bisquick fucked around with this message at 18:07 on Jun 5, 2018

Sexual Lorax
Mar 17, 2004

HERE'S TO FUCKING


Fun Shoe
2/2 on SPY scalps today for +7.1% on the account. :taco:

crazypeltast52
May 5, 2010



CALM up like 6% today on... the CFO retiring?

hostile apostle
Aug 29, 2006
:stadia::stadia::stadia::stadia::stadia:
Stadia didn't outlive SA but it did outlive Lowtax - Happy Birthday Stadia! #ad
:stadia::stadia::stadia::stadia::stadia:
From r/WSB

quote:

First time buying options, did I do it right?

Elephanthead
Sep 11, 2008


Toilet Rascal

Looks right.

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


There are no July 2020 leaps for MU #fakenews :colbert:

Jamfrost
Jul 20, 2013

I'm too busy thinkin' about my baby. Oh I ain't got time for nothin' else.
Slime TrainerS
Hold CGC forever, right?

Elephanthead
Sep 11, 2008


Toilet Rascal

Jamfrost posted:

Hold CGC forever, right?

Don't want to miss any gains.

LLCoolJD
Dec 8, 2007

Musk threatens the inorganic promotion of left-wing ideology that had been taking place on the platform

Block me for being an unironic DeSantis fan, too!

Jamfrost posted:

Hold CGC forever, right?

I'll let you know if I sell. Then it'll be a guaranteed $50 billion market cap in 5 years.

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Crack
Apr 10, 2009
Is it worth buying some weed stocks before tomorrow? I was thinking of buying CGC but maybe it's too late?

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