- wandler20
- Nov 13, 2002
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How many Championships?
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Here, feast on a dumb ESPN Insider article:
quote:NFL - Offseason grades for all 32 teams, from NFL executives
by Mike Sando
Los Angeles Rams
Grade: A-
The Rams worked the system impressively. Acquiring Brandin Cooks, Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib by trade and Ndamukong Suh off the discard pile shielded those acquisitions from the formula for compensatory draft choices. When Sammy Watkins and Trumaine Johnson left the team for massive paydays, the Rams moved into position to receive two 2019 third-round comp picks. Well done.
That work and the Rams' ability to maneuver their way into 11 selections in the 2018 draft produced high marks from executives, despite obvious risks.
"They asked Sean McVay about adding some risky players, and he said, 'My defensive coordinator [Wade Phillips] has more swag than all of them,'" an exec said. "That is very empowering."
Trading away credible veterans Alec Ogletree and Robert Quinn while embracing players such as Peters, Talib and Suh did not go over well with everyone. It was notable, too, that other core players, notably Aaron Donald, had not yet received extensions.
"I think of [Eagles GM] Howie Roseman and the dream team and I think Howie learned from that," another exec said. "There is a difference between acquiring talent and building a team. I think they did more acquiring talent than anyone else. But I could very well see all the pieces work and them having a lot of success. Suh is fine -- even people with the Dolphins will tell you he is just kind of his own guy, not a bad guy. I'm not sure I want Peters around Talib, however."
Another exec called Peters misunderstood -- good at heart, but emotional to a fault.
"They have Wade Phillips, so they should be able to rein that in the next two years and get the best from him," this exec said. "Now, it could blow up, but if the purpose of these grades is to look at who acquired talent, the Rams have to be up there."
One big question: Where will the outside pass-rush come from?
New England Patriots
Grade: A-
The Patriots, like the Rams, worked the compensatory pick system to their favor, putting themselves in position to add two third-rounders in 2019, plus later-round picks. Why overpay declining talent in free agency when you can acquire veteran personnel via trade, then pick up comp choices in early rounds as a reward for your restraint in the unrestricted free agent (UFA) market?
The Patriots let declining left tackle Nate Solder leave, replacing him with first-round pick Isaiah Wynn. They acquired cornerback Jason McCourty after losing Malcolm Butler. They used their other first-rounder for running back Sony Michel after losing Dion Lewis, and then they replaced receiver Danny Amendola with sixth-rounder Braxton Berrios, who evaluators see as a viable slot option. They also picked up right tackle Trent Brown from San Francisco.
Solder, Butler and Lewis signed for $143 million combined. Their replacements will command a fraction of that sum.
"Sony Michel has the potential to have an Alvin Kamara-type season," an exec said. "He has major medical concerns, but New England tends to draft and replace those guys, turning them out every four years, anyway. My biggest concern with Wynn is durability and that he is an average athlete, but they have one of the best line coaches and one of the best quarterbacks for getting rid of the ball, so they will be fine."
This exec thought the McCourty acquisition was the biggest one for the Patriots.
"You are getting a starter at a position of need for much cheaper than Butler -- a steal, even if it is just for one year and then Duke Dawson replaces him," the exec said.
This offseason would feel better for New England if Tom Brady were attending voluntary workouts and outwardly thrilled with his situation. But Brady will show up when it matters, and when he does, Josh McDaniels will still be his offensive coordinator after nearly leaving for Indy. Julian Edelman, Dont'a Hightower, Marcus Cannon and Derek Rivers will be back from injuries once the season starts, further strengthening New England.
"Brady thinks what he's doing is better for him because he is meticulous," an exec said. "But the nature of the NFL game is that when you are not there, you are not taking every opportunity to prepare yourself as well as you could have. What happens if his play dips? Remember, they change wideouts all the time. It can eat at the core of your team. It feels like the last year or two."
Arizona Cardinals
Grade: B+
While head coach and quarterback are two of the most important roles in an organization, sometimes it seems as though no one has any idea how to project success for either one. We're left to evaluate the process, and in the Cardinals' case, there was much to like. They named Steve Wilks head coach after what appeared to be a legitimate search, and they landed arguably the most pro-ready quarterback in the draft without overextending.
Other teams trading up to select quarterbacks in the top half of the first round paid hefty premiums. The Giants gave up three second-rounders. The Bills leveraged Cordy Glenn and multiple early picks (including one that had cost the team No. 1 wideout Sammy Watkins a year earlier).
Arizona gave up merely third- and fifth-rounders in moving up five spots for Josh Rosen. "Not only did they not pay a premium," an exec marveled, "they didn't even pay market value!"
And while coaches and evaluators question Rosen's personality and attitude, all the quarterbacks in this class carried question marks through the process.
"If you were to poll coaches or scouts who evaluated all the quarterbacks, very few from a pure talent standpoint would say, 'Yeah, Josh Allen is a better talent than Josh Rosen,'" an exec said. "Most would tell you Rosen is a better talent, just pure watching him on film. Yet, what Buffalo had to give up to get Allen is crazy compared to what Arizona had to give up to get Rosen."
Another exec said he would give the Cardinals an "A" grade for the offseason if the market for Sam Bradford hadn't pushed his price tag so high. Even with the protections Arizona built into the contract, Bradford would cost the team more than $17 million even if he lasted just half the season. That deal was made before Arizona knew it could land a quarterback in the draft.
Baltimore Ravens
Grade: B+
The Ravens get high marks for their 2017 offseason work, largely because their selection of Lamar Jackson with the 32nd overall pick represented good value and a chance to reap the rewards of inexpensive labor at the QB position. It won't happen this season, but it could happen once Eric DeCosta replaces Ozzie Newsome as GM in 2019 as part of a succession plan announced in February.
Baltimore had a 54-26 (.675) record and won a Super Bowl when quarterback Joe Flacco was playing on his rookie contract. The Ravens are 40-40 since Flacco signed a contract extension lucrative enough to reduce the team's flexibility and, in turn, its margin for error in personnel decisions. Flacco's Total QBR on his 2008-12 rookie deal (56.3) was similar to his QBR since then (52.7), but the team's offensive and defensive efficiency have plummeted as the roster has eroded.
"They let really good players walk out the door because they don't want to pay them -- like Ryan Jensen this offseason," an exec said. "If I were Baltimore, I would have let him walk, too, but you are losing a quality starting-level center, so they have to fill in, and you need rookies to develop. Those rookies haven't developed frequently enough of late, and now, all of a sudden, you have holes. Maybe they will be able to take the next step forward."
Minnesota Vikings
Grade: B
The Vikings finally stabilized their quarterback situation for the long term. The three-year, $84 million price paid for Kirk Cousins makes them a fascinating case study.
"They went out and said, 'We've talked ourselves through the professional tape and Kirk Cousins makes more throws in more situations than Case Keenum, so he is going to give us that little nudge we need to win those games when the defense is not at its best,'" an exec said. "I believe he is capable of doing that. The rest is fit, and I'm not going to get into whether he's aloof and what his teammates think of him and whether that is why [Redskins president] Bruce Allen didn't like him and called him 'Kurt' during his press conferences."
The difference between the price for Cousins and what former starter Case Keenum is getting from Denver is about what it would have taken to keep running back Jerick McKinnon, but he never seemed to be a priority. Meanwhile, the Vikings have already re-signed linebacker Eric Kendricks.
"They still have Anthony Barr, Danielle Hunter and Stefon Diggs to pay, and then with Kirk, he is a good player, but he simply cannot finish games consistently," an exec said. "He was not a finisher at Michigan State and he is not a finisher in the league."
Is that really true? Since 2015, Cousins trails only Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson and Tom Brady in QBR during the final 7:30 of games when his team trailed by as many as eight points. There's still a perception that Cousins implodes at the most critical junctures. However, two other execs said they would have done what the Vikings did, albeit with some reservations.
"Not that I think Kirk Cousins is worth all that money, but in terms of upgrading the quarterback position, keeping their team intact and starting to extend their own guys, they did well," one of these execs said. "They re-signed Kendricks and now they are working on the other three guys. I think they can pull it off. They've got the cap room over the next few years. They could always pick two of the three guys to extend and trade the other one."
"They still have Anthony Barr, Danielle Hunter and Stefon Diggs to pay, and then with Kirk, he is a good player, but he simply cannot finish games consistently. He was not a finisher at Michigan State and he is not a finisher in the league." An NFL exec
Cleveland Browns
Grade: B
This offseason was sitting on a tee for the Browns. It looks like they hit a solid double. They get an "A" grade for their maneuvering in the veteran market and a "C" for their work in the draft. Their surprising decision to retain head coach Hue Jackson is a wait-and-see move that doesn't shift the grade either way in the short term.
"They took a short quarterback [Baker Mayfield] and an undersized corner [Denzel Ward] in the top five picks, which is not ideal," an exec said. "It's not that I don't like either player, I just don't think they should've been selected there. I thought you could get your quarterback and then either Saquon Barkley or Bradley Chubb, in whatever order. If you take a corner fourth, I'm used to seeing players like Patrick Peterson with the right combination of elite athleticism and size."
This exec thought six victories was a realistic floor for the Browns in 2018. He applauded them for showing restraint in free agency despite having ample cap space at their disposal. However, another exec noted that veterans weren't eager to sign with Cleveland, a reality driven home when the Browns failed to factor in the Alex Smith trade-and-sign discussions. This exec liked how Cleveland used the trade market to acquire Jarvis Landry, Tyrod Taylor and Damarious Randall.
"They did a really good job in free agency of getting a veteran in every meeting room," another exec said. "But the Ward selection felt like an owner's directive to get the local kid. He is just a different type of corner than the other corners they were signing. You could have had Chubb and Myles Garrett side-by-side on your defense and you passed it up? I don't get that."
Washington Redskins
Grade: B
Washington botched the Kirk Cousins negotiations years ago. That won't count against them here. They recovered admirably by acquiring Alex Smith from the Chiefs.
"Kansas City got a good young corner [Kendall Fuller] and a third-round pick that turned into a guy named Malik Jefferson [selected by Cincinnati after another trade]," an exec said of the Smith trade. "Washington would make that trade every day of the week for a starting quarterback who is everything you want as a leader and is showing no signs of slowing down."
Cousins or Smith? There is some debate over which one is better, which suggests they're roughly comparable. But through the nature of their contracts, only one of them -- Cousins -- will be seen as a disappointment if he fails to reach the Super Bowl with his new team.
"You are talking about grizzled Alex Smith with 15,000 different coordinators, actually getting better as his career goes on," an exec said. "Washington gets a better leader. Do they get a better player? I think that is strong enough to nudge him to being a better player. He is not a Hall of Famer, but like Kurt Warner, he can be good at 35, 36."
Los Angeles Chargers
Grade: B
Extending cornerback Casey Hayward and landing safety Derwin James with the 17th overall pick drew rave reviews, but heads shook when the Chargers lost another important player, tight end Hunter Henry, to a season-ending knee injury.
"The sheer number of serious injuries they've had across multiple coaching staffs makes you wonder if there is something systemic in their training," an evaluator said. "It's not marginal players always getting hurt, either. It is good players like [Chris] Watt a few years ago, Keenan Allen, Forrest Lamp, now Henry. What is in the water there?"
Another exec cautioned against overreaction, noting that medical experts who addressed teams at the combine said sample sizes were too small to draw conclusions over a few additional injuries here or there. Numbers charted by the ACL Recovery Club showed the Chargers among 15 teams with more than one torn ACL in 2017. Baltimore (five) and Philadelphia (four) had the most. The Chargers had two, as did six other teams.
"They will miss Henry, but their line should be better with Lamp returning," an exec said. "Their lack of depth always catches up to them, and I still feel that is going to end up killing them with injuries."
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Grade: B
The Buccaneers re-signed receiver Mike Evans, tight end Cameron Brate and cornerback Brent Grimes. They added veteran toughness on their lines, with center Ryan Jensen and defensive tackle Mitch Unrein. They helped their pass rush with Jason Pierre-Paul and Vinny Curry. They addressed their run defense with first-round pick Vita Vea.
"I was critical of their moves last offseason because of the types of guys they were adding," an exec said. "They tried to go the complete opposite this year. I like the fact that they did not make a bad mistake worse. They actually said, 'We screwed it up. Let's remedy it. Let's get rid of some of these guys and move on from these pass-rushers.'"
Multiple evaluators questioned whether Vea possesses enough pass-rush ability to justify his selection with the 12th overall choice.
"But if that is what they have been struggling with, all they are saying is, 'We want to keep our linebackers clean' because they have two really, really good linebackers," one of these execs said. "I respect that, but I just wasn't a fan of Vita Vea that early. The back they got in the second round, Ronald Jones, was explosively fast, but they still don't have a bell-cow type of guy. Not many teams do."
Denver Broncos
Grade: B
Think how much different outside expectations might be if the Broncos had paid $28 million per year for Kirk Cousins. Keenum outplayed Cousins last season but hasn't over their careers. If all goes to plan for Denver, Keenum will be a better value than Cousins, at $18 million annually.
"Keenum is not going to carry a team, but he is not going to have to," an exec who is optimistic on Denver said. "He is just going to have to score 21 points a game and not lose it for them. I liked the [running back] Royce Freeman pick. I liked the [receiver] Courtland Sutton pick. I think the defense will trust the offense this year and know they are not going to be in bad situations, so the defense will be able to be more aggressive."
Keenum should help the Broncos improve upon their 32.2 QBR from last season, which ranked 363rd out of 384 teams since 2006, one spot ahead of the winless 2008 Lions. Keenum had a 40.6 QBR in his first 24 starts before breaking out with a 69.0 QBR in 14 starts last season.
The Broncos' ability to land the draft's highest-rated pass-rusher, Bradley Chubb, with the fifth overall pick is what boosted their offseason grade into the upper ranks. One exec thought Keenum and Chubb could help Denver push deep into the AFC playoffs, possibly to the conference championship game, but there was enough uncertainty to give others pause.
"You add Chubb, and yeah, they are going to have one of the best pass-rushing sets in the league," an exec said. "I also really like Sutton, who makes it easier to move on from their receivers' contracts in the future. But the offensive line has questions. The running game is a question. If Keenum plays the way he did last year, they could be really good. They just feel like an 8-8 team to me."
New York Jets
Grade: B
The Jets did what had to be done to land their franchise quarterback in Sam Darnold. That one move could make 2018 the offseason that boosts their organization for the next decade. Yet, are the Jets set up well to support a young quarterback? They employ an exceptional mentor in Josh McCown, but they are not stacked at wide receiver or tight end. Their new offensive coordinator, Jeremy Bates, is unproven and doubling as quarterbacks coach on a staff with a defensive-minded head coach.
"Darnold throws too many interceptions in today's football and had nine fumbles in his [final collegiate season]," an exec said, "so you are starting with teaching him how to take care of the ball, which is harder in the NFL. It's a huge task to get a rookie QB ready -- like raising a child, except a bunch of hostile defenders are trying to stop you. When things are going poorly on third down, [Bates] starts spending more time scripting and [studying] video and less time getting the meeting ready."
Cornerback Trumaine Johnson was the Jets' big signing in free agency. His five-year, $72.5 million deal gives him a $14.5 million average that is second in the NFL, behind that of Josh Norman ($15 million). Johnson ranks fifth among corners, with 10 interceptions the past three seasons (seven in 2015).
"Getting Trumaine Johnson is good for them because now they have two safeties and a starting corner," an exec said. "That will make a significant difference. Quarterback-wise, I think they are in a better situation now than if they would have gotten Kirk Cousins. You give up draft capital [trading up for Darnold], but you help your defense with the savings, and they signed Terrelle Pryor, too. I think that is a smarter way of doing it."
San Francisco 49ers
Grade: B-
The 49ers are known for signing team-friendly contracts. They potentially rang up another one with the deal for cornerback Richard Sherman, but the contracts they've signed for offensive players since Kyle Shanahan became head coach do not fit the mold as neatly. The deals for quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and running back Jerick McKinnon were examples this offseason.
"The one move that really bothered me was when they extended [Daniel] Kilgore, then went into free agency and decided they wanted Weston Richburg instead," an exec said. "It's not like they got Richburg for a great deal, so the question is, if Richburg was your guy to get, why did you even sign Kilgore? Why wouldn't you just wait? It seemed very impetuous on both sides. It might be good outcome, but that is really bad process."
The five-year, $137.5 deal for Garoppolo appears player-friendly in the short term before shifting into team-friendly mode down the line, provided Garoppolo plays well. One exec thought paying a premium for Garoppolo would have made more sense if the 49ers needed the franchise tag to retain a different player.
"It's really important to have Garoppolo there for camp, and there is a price to pay for that," this exec said. "I don't think it was what they ended up paying."
Indianapolis Colts
Grade: B-
A slow-and-steady approach to roster building has not spared the Colts from turbulence. From Josh McDaniels' about-face to Andrew Luck's continuing shoulder drama to the much more serious news regarding linebacker Edwin Jackson's death on Super Bowl Sunday, this Colts offseason has not gone to plan. What happens is important. How a team handles what happens matters, too.
"The best thing about the McDaniels situation was [GM Chris] Ballard addressing the fans and the city head-on in that press conference," an exec said. "He was direct, he handled it, he made McDaniels the villain and got some pressure off his back. Time will tell if Frank [Reich] is a good coach, but you do get a coordinator who just won a Super Bowl, so I don't think you can beat him up too bad."
Execs liked the Colts' ability to command three second-round picks from the Jets in a move that dropped Indy from third to sixth in the draft order. However, they were divided over Ballard's decision to use the sixth pick for a lower-impact position, despite universally high marks for the guard Indy selected, Quenton Nelson.
"I don't like a guard at six," one exec said. "He won't rush the passer or lock down a receiver. And who will he block in their division? They don't play Aaron Donald. J.J. Watt plays end most of the time. Why put money and premium picks into guards?"
Luck's health is one reason.
"I like the offensive linemen they took, but it's like five years too late," another exec said. "I like what they are doing overall. They are picking well. Let's just wait and find out what is going to happen with Andrew and then decide how we are going to build it. That is wise, taking a long-term approach."
Chicago Bears
Grade: B-
This Bears offseason comes down to whether Matt Nagy is the right choice as head coach. Most execs liked the decision to select Roquan Smith eighth overall, despite some concerns over positional value for a 3-4 inside linebacker that early. They were less thrilled about the offensive skill players Chicago added in free agency. They loved the decision to use the transition tag for cornerback Kyle Fuller despite some questions about the price paid.
"Chicago is a possible 'A' grade for me," an exec said. "Nagy has a good mind, he's a leader, he is gregarious, he is everything you are going to want in a head coach. They brought in players who fit what he wants to do, with the only real bad contract being the Taylor Gabriel one."
The 5-foot-8 Gabriel signed for $6.5 million per year, with $14 million guaranteed. One exec predicted Gabriel will have a harder time producing late in the season as weather and field conditions worsen. He thought Gabriel belonged on a team with an indoor stadium.
"And then on Fuller, a year ago, they were trying to trade him," this exec said. "Now he is worth $14 million? Using the transition tag was brilliant -- it was the only way they were going to sign him -- but teams just don't have financial discipline. They're scared."
One exec said he'd rather be Chicago than Buffalo based on how the teams are set up, but even if the Bears are in a better spot, are they better than fourth in the NFC North this season?
"I don't know if I would jump on the Bears bandwagon so fast," an evaluator said. "The guard situation scares the heck out of me with Kyle Long unsure. You have Allen Robinson coming off injury, Leonard Floyd coming off injury, Kyle Long coming off injury, and then I'm not sure they have the DBs to cover the receivers in that division. I think they are still the fourth team in the NFC North."
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Jacksonville Jaguars
Grade: B-
Re-signing Blake Bortles, breaking the bank for guard Andrew Norwell, casting aside multiple receivers and giving Donte Moncrief way more money than expected will define this Jaguars offseason.
"It's such a great story that they extended the quarterback because when you look at their options, do you really want to sink $17, 18, 19 million into a free agent?" an exec asked. "Do you want to pay Cousins what he got? No. Are you better off drafting one high? Not this year. It's a really good exercise in not getting so aggressive that you screw it up. And after the success they had, they can survive re-signing Bortles politically. You can be excited about other things on the team."
The one-year, $9.6 million deal for Moncrief was not one of them. One exec placed it among the worst deals in recent memory. Another marveled that the deal could wind up giving Indianapolis a 2019 fourth-round compensatory pick.
"I don't know if you go all-in for a guard, although Norwell is a good player," an exec said. "They want to build their team from a physical standpoint, ground and pound. I don't think they got better at receiver, but that is not how they are built, so I get it. I don't think Bortles is going to take them where they want to go, but if you trust the defense and trust the running game, you can only have him be a manager. More power to you. They were damned if you do, damned if you don't."
"Do you want to pay Cousins what he got? No. Are you better off drafting one high? Not this year. It's a really good exercise in not getting so aggressive that you screw it up. And after the success they had, they can survive re-signing Bortles politically. You can be excited about other things on the team." An NFL exec
Atlanta Falcons
Grade: B-
The Falcons didn't need to do anything rash as a team, given that they have one of the NFL's better rosters. They extended quarterback Matt Ryan, had receiver Calvin Ridley fall to them in the draft and arguably did not do enough to replace defensive linemen Dontari Poe and Adrian Clayborn.
"It is not like they have a glaring weakness, but defensive line depth wins Super Bowls, and that is a concern for Atlanta," an exec said. "I think [third-round pick Deadrin] Senat will be a decent rotational piece, but I don't see him as a starter right now. If I am going to beat Atlanta, pound them up the middle, wear them down."
Stability on the coaching staff was one welcome and probably underrated change this offseason compared to 2017.
"Dan Quinn appears invested in [offensive coordinator Steve] Sarkisian, and that could pay off this year," an exec said. "I see them as taking a while to get used to Sarkisian and Sarkisian needing time to get used to the personnel. The continuity will serve them well, and the receiver they got [Ridley] will be a good complement because he played in a pro-style offense with a real particular head coach [Nick Saban] who makes you very much responsible for executing your technique."
New Orleans Saints
Grade: B-
While Minnesota was paying top-of-the-market money for a second- or third-tier quarterback in Cousins, the Saints were getting a hometown discount for Drew Brees. The savings helped them sign linebacker Demario Davis, cornerback Patrick Robinson and safety Kurt Coleman in hopes of further bolstering an improving defense.
"The big question is, with them leveraging next year's first-round pick for [Marcus] Davenport, will that be worth it?" an exec asked. "I don't think so, but we will see."
Davenport joins a defense that ranked in the 54th percentile in ESPN's efficiency metric in 2017. That was only 19th in the NFL, but it was the fourth-best showing for New Orleans in the 12-season Sean Payton era. The Payton/Brees teams have gone 69-27 (.719) in the six seasons when their defenses have finished above the 42nd percentile (the rest of the league has a .554 win rate in those season, an indication of the value Brees and the Saints' offense has added).
"The pieces they added are not game-changers, but they should add to what they have," an exec said.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Grade: B-
The offseason came and went without significant changes to the Steelers' roster. That's a good thing for a contending team that should be strong again in 2018.
Two decisions stand out: firing offensive coordinator Todd Haley after six seasons, and using a third-round pick for potential Ben Roethlisberger successor Mason Rudolph.
"The Tier 1 quarterback often gets to arrange the coaching staff," an exec said. "Whether it's Bruce Arians or Todd Haley or me or you, Ben is coming back against Jacksonville [regardless of play-calling]. That is just how that works. He makes the throws against loaded coverage and slices the ball in with two inches to the back of the end zone either way."
If promoting quarterbacks coach Randy Fichtner into a dual role was seen as a move to appease Roethlisberger, adding another drafted quarterback to the meeting room seemed to agitate the Super Bowl-winning QB. The three quarterbacks on the roster behind Roethlisberger were drafted by Pittsburgh in the third or fourth rounds.
"I thought Mason Rudolph would have been a good value in the second round," an exec said. "I think he was a really good value play for Pittsburgh."
wandler20 fucked around with this message at 15:57 on Jun 6, 2018
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Jun 6, 2018 02:47
