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Telephones
Apr 28, 2013
He is afraid of assassination.

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sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth

Telephones posted:

He is afraid of assassination.

it's probably genuinely this. Like he knows this is gonna be a jackoff session and he probably genuinely is worried that someone is gonna pull poo poo after the Libya talk and morons like Lindsay going around all "BUT SIGN MY WAR PLAN JUST IN CASE GUYS". Why hang around outside of home when you know it's gonna be a simple 'yea peace, that's good' thing.

SeANMcBAY
Jun 28, 2006

Look on the bright side.



I’m still kinda expecting Trump to pull out even though I know he’s in Singapore already now.

Some Guy TT
Aug 30, 2011

So I thought this was interesting.

David Craig posted:

On the eve of President Trump’s historic meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, world leaders are uneasy about what may transpire in Singapore, and U.S. foreign policy experts are openly divided.

But what about the people who have the most to gain—or to lose—regarding tensions between the United States and North Korea? In a poll of South Koreans and Americans commissioned by the Charles Koch Institute and RealClearPolitics, the two groups dovetailed in a number of key areas:

•A vast majority of Americans (70 percent) say that Trump should meet with North Korea’s leader. In South Korea, this optimism is even higher, at 81 percent.
•Regarding Trump’s ultimate objective -- denuclearization of the peninsula – 46 percent of South Koreans believe that it will be achieved, compared to 31 percent of Americans.
•About one-fourth of respondents in South Korea and the U.S. believe relations are already improving between their country and North Korea.

Although there were differences regarding the strategy to deal with North Korea, both Americans and South Koreans believe that engagement is key. Attitudes diverge regarding sanctions to garner positive outcomes: Americans are more likely to favor this approach than are South Koreans, who are less likely to believe such leverage will produce positive results.

If North Korea fails to denuclearize, both Americans and South Koreans believe that a combination of sanctions and nuclear deterrence are key going forward, but South Koreans favor the latter over the former. In either case, only a small minority of either Americans or South Koreans say that war or preemptive strikes should be part of any strategy toward North Korea.

The two allies also diverge over North Korea’s motives for pursuing nuclear arms. Perhaps surprisingly, more Americans feel threatened, believing that the Kim regime has the intent to use the weapons to attack. Three-fourths of South Korean respondents believe that North Korea is using its nuclear capability as a tactic to relieve the current sanctions regime.

As a former member of the military and a student of strategy and international relations, I was struck by another key area of divergence -- the prospect of withdrawing U.S. troops from the peninsula. Forty-five percent of South Koreans want U.S. troops to remain in their country indefinitely -- more than twice the percentage of Americans who feel this way.

South Koreans also believe that an end to the 65-year-old armistice is more important than denuclearization as a condition for a withdrawal of U.S. forces.

As a reminder that even geopolitics is local, the pollsters asked residents in each country, “Which country do you think is the greatest threat to your country’s safety?”

Among Americans, the “winners” in this dubious category were North Korea and Russia in a dead heat – with both at 24 percent. China was third at 12 percent, with Iran next at 8 percent.

In South Korea, the answers were North Korea (46 percent); China (30 percent); Japan (18 percent); the United States (14 percent). Russia came in a distant fifth at 2 percent. Iran barely registered.

The poll of 1,000 respondents in the United States and 700 in South Korea was conducted June 4-6 by Survey Sampling International. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points for the larger group and plus or minus 3.7 for the smaller group.

We've heard a lot about how South Koreans overwhelmingly back the new direction of negotiating with North Korea instead of just pretending like they don't exist. But this is the first time I've seen anyone cite an American poll indicating that American citizens have similarly massive levels of support. Evidently all the talk in the media about how Trump is a big dummy for trying to talk to the new Hitler hasn't been persuasive. At least outside the twenty-four percent who are convinced North Korea is our achnemesis.

Incidentally, let's all take a moment to appreciate that even after some eighteen months of endless coverage about how Russians are destroying American democracy, they somehow manage to only rate the same percentage as North Korea does in a poll where some thirty percent of respondents apparently couldn't be bothered to name any country at all. Also of note in the latter poll- it would seem that South Koreans do think of China as being more threatening than Japan. Although the latter's lack of a standing army probably has a lot to do with that.

edit: and yes I know the source is somewhat questionable but right-wingers are about the last people you'd expect to see admitting that war is unpopular and bad.

Some Guy TT fucked around with this message at 13:15 on Jun 11, 2018

Vladimir Putin
Mar 17, 2007

by R. Guyovich
If we are to take the poll as being accurate then the results about the desire to have American troops in SK makes sense from a strategic standpoint but doesn’t really correspond to what you’d think intuitively.

And that bit about sanctions vs nuclear deterrent and SK preferring the latter. Does that mean they think the best way to contain NK is to have an even larger threat capability in their back pocket?

chitoryu12
Apr 24, 2014

Some Guy TT posted:

Incidentally, let's all take a moment to appreciate that even after some eighteen months of endless coverage about how Russians are destroying American democracy, they somehow manage to only rate the same percentage as North Korea does in a poll where some thirty percent of respondents apparently couldn't be bothered to name any country at all. Also of note in the latter poll- it would seem that South Koreans do think of China as being more threatening than Japan. Although the latter's lack of a standing army probably has a lot to do with that.

Probably because the 1/3 of the country that voted for Trump:

A: Doesn't believe that Russia manipulated the 2016 election.

B: Doesn't care if they did because they love Russia and their strongman ex-KGB president for life and want Trump to be more like that.

C: Both.

Red and Black
Sep 5, 2011

https://twitter.com/TimothyS/status/1006192409988849665

https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1006227697293578240

https://twitter.com/jeremyscahill/status/1006201611847438336

Vladimir Putin
Mar 17, 2007

by R. Guyovich
The anxiety about nuclear exchange is not warranted and is way off base

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
Trump is the only reason anyone ever worried about a nuclear exchange with NK in the first place.

RandomPauI
Nov 24, 2006


Grimey Drawer
Or, a more likely fear, the US dragging South Korea into a war.

Telephones
Apr 28, 2013

Vladimir Putin posted:

The anxiety about nuclear exchange is not warranted and is way off base

TRUMP!!!

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

chitoryu12 posted:

Probably because the 1/3 of the country that voted for Trump:

A: Doesn't believe that Russia manipulated the 2016 election.

B: Doesn't care if they did because they love Russia and their strongman ex-KGB president for life and want Trump to be more like that.

C: Both.

That still leaves a third of the US unaccounted for.

Maybe its that media alone isn't as good at drumming up national rage as we'd thought. Maybe the president needs to be involved to make the campaign effective.

Willo567
Feb 5, 2015

Cheating helped me fail the test and stay on the show.

Vladimir Putin posted:

The anxiety about nuclear exchange is not warranted and is way off base

I think the anxiety is warranted, as NK's missiles can hit anywhere in the U.S., and would be catastrophic not only to us, but South Korea and Japan

I don't think it's gonna to lead to armagaeddon

Red and Black
Sep 5, 2011

https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1006249503240966150

https://twitter.com/adamjohnsonnyc/status/1006325144569221121?s=21

Red and Black fucked around with this message at 01:10 on Jun 12, 2018

Negostrike
Aug 15, 2015


Why is this thread dead as gently caress now? :psyduck:

https://twitter.com/OllieConnolly/status/1006344503253487623

Red and Black
Sep 5, 2011

Ah, there it is. The dreaded photo op

Telephones
Apr 28, 2013
They're both so grotesque...

patonthebach
Aug 22, 2016

by R. Guyovich
Holy poo poo. He actually did it.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002
Admittedly, their statement is so vague, who knows if any real steps will actually be taken (expected some canceled military exercises). I mean, North Korea obviously wants something a bit more secure than US security guarantees (which don't really mean much.)

Spacewolf
May 19, 2014
If this actually works, I will revise my opinion of Trump and conclude he's not a complete idiot.

He'll still be evil, etc, but not an idiot.

If it does not work, though...then I will cry at having gotten my hopes up.

Pollyanna
Mar 5, 2005

Milk's on them.


Hahaha, it’s never going to work.

tino
Jun 4, 2018

by Smythe
So is the dictator conversion over, can we nominate them for Oscar and get it over with.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Pollyanna posted:

Hahaha, it’s never going to work.

As far as North Korea actually giving up literally everything (the NYT recommends they also give up any enrichment or civilian reactors...basically more harsh than the Iranian deal), I doubt it. It is possible some concessions will be made, it is unclear if the war can be concluded.

It is also a big question of what SK will do if talks stall.

Red and Black
Sep 5, 2011

https://twitter.com/commondreams/status/1006502391422881792?s=21

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost
Good: The summit didn't blow up into full-blown anger.
Meh: The statement says even less than past statements, and commits neither country to much of anything.
Bad: I guess if the US gets upset when they realize DPRK didn't really agree to anything and thus accuses the DPRK of lying etc, poo poo could get bad later on.
Also Bad: Living in the DPRK unless you're in the elite.

Piell
Sep 3, 2006

Grey Worm's Ken doll-like groin throbbed with the anticipatory pleasure that only a slightly warm and moist piece of lemoncake could offer


Young Orc

Ardennes posted:

As far as North Korea actually giving up literally everything (the NYT recommends they also give up any enrichment or civilian reactors...basically more harsh than the Iranian deal), I doubt it. It is possible some concessions will be made, it is unclear if the war can be concluded.

It is also a big question of what SK will do if talks stall.

The sum total of what the agreement says regarding nuclear.
"3. Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work towards complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. "

It commits them to actually doing absolutely nothing, has no actual terms that they have to do, and includes no inspections or verification that they do anything. Furthermore, there is this.

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1006430228846206976

Considering that Trump already said he was going to stop doing military drills with South Korea (without telling the South Koreans, naturally), it's pretty clear that Trump got played.

https://twitter.com/BillNeelyNBC/status/1006475992821465088

tino
Jun 4, 2018

by Smythe
I will still holding out on a plot twist that Kim gets nerve gassed before he board the returning plane.

icantfindaname
Jul 1, 2008


Lol Trump said he plans to pull out of joint exercises with the ROK. The South Koreans may end up with some buyers remorse for this summit if Trump does indeed go with his instincts and do all he can to pull the US out of South Korea in exchange for nothing

Pollyanna
Mar 5, 2005

Milk's on them.


Piell posted:

The sum total of what the agreement says regarding nuclear.
"3. Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work towards complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. "

It commits them to actually doing absolutely nothing, has no actual terms that they have to do, and includes no inspections or verification that they do anything. Furthermore, there is this.

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1006430228846206976

Considering that Trump already said he was going to stop doing military drills with South Korea (without telling the South Koreans, naturally), it's pretty clear that Trump got played.

https://twitter.com/BillNeelyNBC/status/1006475992821465088

That last bit is what’s :laffo: about it. Trump totally got played and NK managed to dunk on him soooo bad.

icantfindaname
Jul 1, 2008


We may get to see Dems running to the right of Trump on a Cold Warrior platform and attacking him for being soft on our geopolitical enemies for real after this

Red and Black
Sep 5, 2011

The US got nothing in return for ending its joint exercises

Except, you know, North Korea ending its missile testing, blowing up its nuclear test site, and signing two bilateral agreements pledging to denuclearize

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

Chomskyan posted:

Except, you know, North Korea ending its missile testing, blowing up its nuclear test site, and signing two bilateral agreements pledging to denuclearize

:laffo:

The only thing the US gets in return for ending joint exercises, if they remain ended, is that some members of the US military have a little bit more free time. If I'm Private First Class Fuels Things, that's probably a pretty good deal, I guess.

patonthebach
Aug 22, 2016

by R. Guyovich
I know everything trump does is automatically bad because partisan politics. But how is a meeting with a madman dictator where they continue to pledge denuclearization a bad thing?

This has gone pretty great considering.

Some Guy TT
Aug 30, 2011

icantfindaname posted:

We may get to see Dems running to the right of Trump on a Cold Warrior platform and attacking him for being soft on our geopolitical enemies for real after this

So one step closer to my nightmare scenario of having to vote for Trump because the Democrats nominate some idiot who campaigns on reigniting tensions on the Korean peninsula. I guess I can take solace in the fact that a lot of unambiguously good things would have to happen for that to become a reality, but still. What do they think they're going to gain by running to the right of Trump on the Korea issue? Most Americans don't even know why we have troops stationed in perpetuity on the Korean peninsula in the first place, and absolutely no one is going to give a poo poo about the end of those pointless military exercises. That's the closest thing this deal has to a "loss" for Trump. Elsewhere it's a nothing at worst.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
Because that pledge means jack poo poo at best.

Although I'll grant you that it could've gone way, way worse.

Vladimir Putin
Mar 17, 2007

by R. Guyovich

icantfindaname posted:

Lol Trump said he plans to pull out of joint exercises with the ROK. The South Koreans may end up with some buyers remorse for this summit if Trump does indeed go with his instincts and do all he can to pull the US out of South Korea in exchange for nothing

Moon may have been the biggest dope of the trio. The whole thing is a shitfest. How the gently caress are you going to negotiate something about NK/SK relations and SK isn’t even at the table. Total shitfest

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

patonthebach posted:

But how is a meeting with a madman dictator where they continue to pledge denuclearization a bad thing?

The main way it's "bad" or, probably more accurately, just a big nothing-event, is that absolutely no one feels like defining what denuclearization means. So you have people arguing back and forth about a term of ambiguous meaning, and that meaning fluctuates heavily depending on what team you're cheerleading for.

Vladimir Putin
Mar 17, 2007

by R. Guyovich

patonthebach posted:

I know everything trump does is automatically bad because partisan politics. But how is a meeting with a madman dictator where they continue to pledge denuclearization a bad thing?

This has gone pretty great considering.

Because of how awful Trump is y’all are getting confused about what is a good outcome. Is a good outcome one in which Trump gets humiliated? What if he secures a lasting peace and he gets a Nobel Peace prize. OH NO! Trump gets a Nobel Peace prize legit and may go down in history as a great leader ! But what about Kim? He’s awful too! But is he as bad or worse than trump? What if he wins that’s good because Trump sucks but bad because Kim is a cruel dictator who has concentration camps!!!


Let me give everyone a cheat sheet. The true and long term threat to lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula is NK and it’s nuclear program. Their whole game is nuclear blackmail and they want as much as they can by scaring the poo poo out of everyone. They will never give up their nuclear program short of being offered something that insane like complete control over SK.

Therefore the pledge to end joint exercises is a bad outcome. Getting a meeting with the US without the presence of SK is a total poo poo show and a bad outcome. Even agreeing to meet with NK without working out in advance what you will talk about is a bad outcome. The agreement was totally vague and committed neither nation to anything which is also a bad outcome.

Xombie
May 22, 2004

Soul Thrashing
Black Sorcery

patonthebach posted:

But how is a meeting with a madman dictator where they continue to pledge denuclearization a bad thing?

We've literally gotten nothing for this. Kim, on the other hand, has gotten good press, the end of joint military exercises, and everyone forgetting that he's running a brutal fascist state where mass execution and imprisonment are commonplace.

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tino
Jun 4, 2018

by Smythe

Chomskyan posted:

The US got nothing in return for ending its joint exercises

Except, you know, North Korea ending its missile testing, blowing up its nuclear test site, and signing two bilateral agreements pledging to denuclearize

Fat Kim probably will freeze nuke testing for 2 years just to be a nice guy to orange turd, PROBABLY. Probably will do a test right before he hand white house to next prez just to rub it in.

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