|
I find this whole thing so baffling and hilarious. Trump saluting the general while Kim has this  look on his face is just unbelievable.Anyways, B.R. Myers reemerged again for a piece on "trends in South Korea's nationalist-left discourse." One takeaway is the speed at which the ROK and DPRK will attempt to go for a confederation, with the ROK even making moves to ending the Mutual Defense Treaty with the United States. http://sthelepress.com/index.php/2018/06/10/trends-in-south-koreas-nationalist     
|
#
?
Jun 15, 2018 09:48
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 21, 2024 11:31 |
|
|
mobby_6kl posted:Jesus christ people, it's not that talking to NK is bad, it's that Trump can't talk with Trudeau without creating a huge incident so entrusting this task to the administration of Donald "Nuclear Button" Trump and John "Libya Model" Bolton is loving terrifying. Personally I'd rather Trump be talking to Kim than threatening him with tweets every other week. The latter scenario strikes me as being a much worse way to do things, with much bigger potential for the situation to go horribly wrong. BrutalistMcDonalds posted:Anyways, B.R. Myers reemerged again for a piece on "trends in South Korea's nationalist-left discourse." One takeaway is the speed at which the ROK and DPRK will attempt to go for a confederation, with the ROK even making moves to ending the Mutual Defense Treaty with the United States. I really do appreciate B.R. Myer's reasonably sourced pessimism. I'm not going to prognosticate on the outcome of the next South Korean elections, but those are really the biggest unknown quantity going forward. The main question is whether the current conservatives will even exist that far ahead. For now they remain the only serious opposition party, but their performance two days ago was so god-awful that at some point whoever's bankrolling them has to wonder whether the center-right party would be a better investment. After the Summit, North Korea shows Trump in a striking new light. I'm posting this mainly because I'm gratified that Time, no fan of the North Korean regime, is making the exact same point I made a couple of days ago regarding North Korean coverage of Trump and the United States. That's such a "no duh" interpretation of the event I'm still mystified why anyone felt the need to contradict me. In more usual fare for Time, I also looked at President Trump downplays North Korea human rights abuses. This part stuck out at me- quote:Last year, Human Rights Watch called the pariah state “one of the most repressive authoritarian states in the world.” Between 80,000 and 120,000 political prisoners are believed to be languishing in North Korea’s prisons, according to a 2014 U.N. Commission of Inquiry on Human Rights in North Korea. The report accused the totalitarian state of committing crimes against humanity, including extermination, murder, enslavement, torture, rape, forced abortions and other sexual violence, enforced disappearance and knowingly causing prolonged starvation. I didn't realize that number was so low. That's about .4% of the total population. Which sounds really bad until you remember that .9% of the total population of the United States is in prison. Like, geez, we're not even tied?
|
|
#
?
Jun 15, 2018 10:30
|
|
|
By the way I'd like to apologize for my psycho behavior over the last couple of days. There was more winning than I was expecting around election time and I was not mentally equipped to handle that much winning. Now I know what force it is that drives sports fan to go on crazy rampages after days when you'd think they'd be really chill and happy.
|
|
#
?
Jun 15, 2018 11:14
|
|
|
The two Korea's are going to want to move super fast on this. If Trump's legal problems accelerate and something ends up mattering then the next President is going to reverse all the progress we've seen so far. Honestly I hope this works out for the two countries and on their terms. gently caress geopolitics.
|
|
#
?
Jun 15, 2018 12:30
|
|
|
mobby_6kl posted:Jesus christ people, it's not that talking to NK is bad, it's that Trump can't talk with Trudeau without creating a huge incident so entrusting this task to the administration of Donald "Nuclear Button" Trump and John "Libya Model" Bolton is loving terrifying. This. I would absolutely love it if the Korean War was ended and we were on the road to peacefully reunification, but Trump is not the guy to entrust with it. At any given moment he may wreck peace talks with sudden outbursts or ignorant demands, make huge empty threats, try to turn empty threats into real threats if he’s afraid of not being taken seriously, etc. Trump should be kept as far from the political process as is humanly possible. If anyone can turn peace negotiations into nuclear war, it’s that orange baboon.
|
|
#
?
Jun 15, 2018 12:40
|
|
|
It's kind of damned if you do, damned if you don't situation, though. It's hard to just say "let's not touch Korea" for the entirety of an administration's term. First, it's not practical. Second, it's just not inside the power of outside observers/voters to tell the President not to engage in foreign policy. It's a fundamental job/responsibility/privilege of a president and the president's admin to do so. What makes me more cynical is that the current admin has been impatient on many items, this stuff takes time, and even if the president absolutely believes he can get a peaceful, good deal out of this, he's surrounded by at least two very hawkish people, particularly on the subject of North Korea, Secretary Pompeo and John Bolton. So if poo poo does go off track, they're not exactly the calm, de-escalatory foreign policy types. Secretary Mattis, on the other hand, has expressed no public desire for conflict and the DOD's moves in the region have been very modest, as far as anything that could look like preparation for war compared with regular proficiency/training. On the other hand, I'm not one of the alarmists who thinks we're going to instantly run back to war if things break down. Probably a lot of bluster and tough talk and sanctions etc. But assuming no reunification plan or general acceptance of North Korea into the regular sphere of world politics, we're back on the track that has been predicted for over a decade or two now: DPRK continues to hone missile capabilities and nuclear capabilities (They've already done so essentially right on time based on analysis of their weapons programs and expected progress). This is not so KJU can launch some suicidal mad-man first strike (I think that idea is bunk and either born of ignorance or hawkish desire for preemptive war). It would be to preserve the regime through making it unpalatable to do more than sanctions and harsh words rather than a military strike on the DPRK or its leadership. https://twitter.com/armscontrolwonk/status/1007403290601054208?s=21 mlmp08 fucked around with this message at 14:25 on Jun 15, 2018 |
|
#
?
Jun 15, 2018 13:07
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/tainaka_m/status/1007143454772641792?s=21 https://twitter.com/johncarlbaker/status/1007384236905631745 Red and Black fucked around with this message at 16:03 on Jun 15, 2018 |
|
#
?
Jun 15, 2018 14:44
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/johncarlbaker/status/1007647537065615360
|
|
#
?
Jun 15, 2018 17:14
|
|
|
Why would they end the MDT? Does SK honestly believe that China will leave them alone, or that they can stave off or challenge China's attempts to become regional hegemon?
|
|
#
?
Jun 15, 2018 17:37
|
|
|
Some Guy TT posted:That's a very curious set of dual goals you have there, considering the extent to which the American empire justifies its existence by claiming they are the If you take anything Donald Trump has said at face value you are deeply stupid. I'm not jumping for joy because the best we can hope for is that he does something good on accident.
|
|
#
?
Jun 15, 2018 17:56
|
|
|
Grapplejack posted:Why would they end the MDT? Does SK honestly believe that China will leave them alone, or that they can stave off or challenge China's attempts to become regional hegemon? No one has floated the idea yet of ending mutual defense agreements. There’s talk of suspending one or some of the most visible and performative US/ROK military exercises.
|
|
#
?
Jun 15, 2018 18:04
|
|
|
Tacky-rear end Rococco posted:If you take anything Donald Trump has said at face value you are deeply stupid. I'm not jumping for joy because the best we can hope for is that he does something good on accident. It's completely insane. People have watched a pathological liar and conmen lie every single day for over a year and a half. Sometimes even lie for absolutely no discernable reason about the smallest things. They have watched him act in the most anti-worker, hawkish and dishonest manner possible. They have watched him hire Pruitt, DeVos, Sessions or Bolton. And still, after all this, people genuinely consider that he might legalize weed, negotiate with NK or protect American workers. A huge part of the population has completely disconnected from observable reality.
|
|
#
?
Jun 15, 2018 18:55
|
|
|
Galaxy Brain: Starting Korean War 2 to own the chuds
|
|
#
?
Jun 15, 2018 19:14
|
|
|
Is this the most disgusting way of profiting off the fears people have about North Korea? https://twitter.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/1007684229608570880
|
|
#
?
Jun 15, 2018 19:36
|
|
|
Willo567 posted:Is this the most disgusting way of profiting off the fears people have about North Korea?
|
|
#
?
Jun 15, 2018 19:41
|
|
|
Willo567 posted:Is this the most disgusting way of profiting off the fears people have about North Korea? He wrote it well before all of this, it just turns out to be matching reality to a large degree.
|
|
#
?
Jun 15, 2018 21:12
|
|
|
Mozi posted:He wrote it well before all of this, it just turns out to be matching reality to a large degree. lol
|
|
#
?
Jun 15, 2018 21:13
|
|
|
You know it's funny - in all of this about whether it's better that Trump is at least trying to negotiate vs. him being an idiot, no one seems to be mentioning the elephant in the room. No, not the possibility of the talks failing and leading to him lashing out (though that's a real fear), and no, not the possibility of things leading to a hot conflict if he hadn't changed gears from saber-rattling. Not that those aren't both legit, but they've been discussed plenty whereas one thing hasn't. It's this: we know Trump is a pathological liar, and that if there's a thing he likes more than "deals," it's reneging on deals whenever he feels like it. This is a really bad combination for diplomacy. So the concern is not just that he fails, but that he fails in a way that makes DPRK less likely to come to the table in the future, and that wastes the work that Moon Jae-in has done - much in the same way that Bush's cowboy diplomacy ruined not just the Agreed Framework but also poisoned the well for the talks that came after. Trump has a similar "opportunity" to gently caress things up in a way that probably doesn't lead to outright war but that does make the situation worse than it was before. The people of RoK, and Moon Jae-in in particular, obviously have reason to be happy that tensions have relaxed, but I'd bet that possibility is always in the back of Moon's mind, too. He'd be an idiot for it not to, and he's not an idiot. All in all him negotiating is still better than the alternative, but it's perfectly rational to still have concerns about the what and the how of that process because of Trump's personality, lack of attention to detail, and general ignorance. There's also the part where some of the stuff he's said is absolutely atrocious in terms of its effect on human rights advocacy, but that ship sailed January 20, 2017, so that's really just more part of the overall pattern.
|
|
#
?
Jun 15, 2018 21:33
|
|
|
Mozi posted:He wrote it well before all of this, it just turns out to be matching reality to a large degree. Tell me when he started writing this, because I only just heard about it when the summit was briefly canceled I'm just tired of these so called experts telling us we're all about to die every single time something with North Korea comes up. Seriously, look at this fucker praising Trump and Pompeo, two men who have escalated tensions with NK https://twitter.com/NarangVipin/status/1006988757210419200 And then earlier today he posted this poo poo https://twitter.com/NarangVipin/status/1007723863969554438 I seriously hate these fuckers. So goddamned hypocritical
|
|
#
?
Jun 15, 2018 21:50
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/nknewsorg/status/1007472783561981952 https://twitter.com/minseon_ku/status/1007477616167849984?s=21 Red and Black fucked around with this message at 00:46 on Jun 16, 2018 |
|
#
?
Jun 16, 2018 00:05
|
|
|
Yandat posted:These are the adults in the room and since Drumpf violated the flag code and saluted a Korean general, this is nothing but a humiliation for the American Empire - and also for some reason, that would be a bad thing. are you okay?
|
|
#
?
Jun 16, 2018 08:18
|
|
|
Willo567 posted:Tell me when he started writing this, because I only just heard about it when the summit was briefly canceled It's been a common concern since the election and many people have written about it. He doesn't have the mental capacity to understand what he is negotiating about and the sycophants around him have no reason to tell him. What is the village idiot, who is known to be extremely petty and go into fits of rage, going to do once he finds out that the magic beans aren't real and so on. The fear has died down a lot though since people realized that he is too lazy to do anything that would involve actual work or stress. He just goes and takes a nap once he tires himself out screaming, and that's that 
|
|
#
?
Jun 16, 2018 11:15
|
|
|
The problem is that Trump has no long-term strategy or even medium-term contingency plans. All he cares about is making this look good for the upcoming midterms, and his big plan for that is apparently to just straight-up lie and oversell the outcome of the summit. "We've forged a special friendship and the nuclear threat is gone! Kim will be disarming soon. Yes of course we'll have inspections." Yeah OK. Lying about what NK has committed to just ups the stakes if reality becomes increasingly uncomfortable. Is the plan to just lie forever, blame other people, and sell failure as success in typical Trump fashion? "A satellite isn't a nuclear missile, we're going to get denuclearization." "OK that's an ICBM but we can shoot those down so there is no nuclear threat, by the way this is all Bill Clinton's fault and Obama didn't do anything and there was nothing we could do." ... Maybe. Going by his recent interview, his real strategy is less "fire and fury" and more "please don't nuke us." The upshot is that if all he cares about is optics and not actually stopping NK's nuclear program, then he's probably not going to go to war over it.
|
|
#
?
Jun 16, 2018 14:40
|
|
|
North Korea Issue is Not De-nuclearization But De-Colonization
|
|
#
?
Jun 16, 2018 14:55
|
|
|
OneEightHundred posted:The upshot is that if all he cares about is optics and not actually stopping NK's nuclear program, then he's probably not going to go to war over it. The big concern before the talks was that he would think he'd be able to do like he did in Syria and show them who's boss by firing a few cruise missiles their way. He did that to Syria despite initially supporting a pro-Russian and anti-interventionist view of the situation in that country, as his impulsiveness led him to go after Syria and even Russia because it seemed like a good idea at the time. The most predictable thing about Trump is that he's always unpredictable and can always be swayed to radically different ideas from month to month, and even encouraged to make terrible decisions because he easily gets manipulated by the last guy in the room and doesn't consider the long-term implications of any decision. If this results in the North Korea negotiations collapsing, he may very well take it poorly enough that he considers a dumbass move like this, especially if the hawks in his administration like Bolton start pressuring him.
|
|
#
?
Jun 16, 2018 14:56
|
|
|
Grapplejack posted:Why would they end the MDT? Does SK honestly believe that China will leave them alone, or that they can stave off or challenge China's attempts to become regional hegemon? Sino-Korean relations aren't like Sino-Japanese relations; Korea isn't "Japan but smol"; there's a positive historical relationship and a common history of fighting Japan, and positive trade relations. A unified Korea is a long term interest to China if it means the pulling out of all US troops in a sort of Finlandization.
|
|
#
?
Jun 16, 2018 16:56
|
|
|
Raenir Salazar posted:A unified Korea is a long term interest to China if it means the pulling out of all US troops in a sort of Finlandization. Also it would mean less chance of a sudden very much undesired humanitarian crisis on China's border if war breaks out or the DPRK collapses from within.
|
|
#
?
Jun 16, 2018 17:02
|
|
|
Personally, I don’t think Beijing worry about the sudden humanitarian crisis angle that much. it’s a good long term job opportunity, plus it keeps reminding the Korean minority in Manchu and other minorities that CCP is actually not bad government big brother.
|
|
#
?
Jun 16, 2018 17:48
|
|
|
tino posted:Personally, I don’t think Beijing worry about the sudden humanitarian crisis angle that much. it’s a good long term job opportunity, plus it keeps reminding the Korean minority in Manchu and other minorities that CCP is actually not bad government big brother. yea I think people really over-guess how much China's government gives a poo poo about Koreans as, you know, humans rather than political tools. The hypothetical collapse event leading to mass migration just means China gets a poo poo load of new labor and of course they'll be first in line to 'rebuild' North Korea. Plus it's a possible way to say 'look already existing Korean minority, we open our arms to your brothers in their time of need'. Like, it's not IDEAL sure, I think they'd rather a stable, non-occupied, unified Korea than anything else like most people, but Beijing really isn't biting its collective nails in terror at the possible North Korean flood.
|
|
#
?
Jun 16, 2018 20:48
|
|
|
While such political ambitions are indeed true, you have to consider the logistical issue - the European refugee crisis has seen roughly 5 million displaced people apply for asylum on European soil. This has managed to throw Europe into a political clusterfuck that is severely straining the union due to the non-border states not bothering to help the border states actually finance and otherwise care for said people. Now take North Korea, which has an actual land border with China rather than the deadly seas between Africa/Syria and Europe. Assuming some massive NK collapse such evacuation of a nation of an estimated 25million people would be significant - obviously those farther from the Chinese border would either stay and suffer or attempt to flee south. But remember a failed state of 25 million people is not something you can just throw some aid packages at and 'solve' a crisis.
|
|
#
?
Jun 16, 2018 20:59
|
|
|
China ain’t going to take 5 million North Koreans in Dongbei, the North Korean refugee camps and Chinese peacekeepers are going to stay in North Korean. For 20 years.
|
|
#
?
Jun 17, 2018 00:17
|
|
|
Raenir Salazar posted:Sino-Korean relations aren't like Sino-Japanese relations; Korea isn't "Japan but smol"; there's a positive historical relationship and a common history of fighting Japan, and positive trade relations. A unified Korea is a long term interest to China if it means the pulling out of all US troops in a sort of Finlandization. There's pretty much 0 reason to think China would treat such a Korea any better than it treats all of its other neighbors. Frankly if the USA pulled out of East Asia or pulled back Chinese hostility toward Japan would probably decrease and they might very well team up in re-imperializing the Koreans, if not formally and explicitly then tacitly. If your view of how imperialism works is based on primordial and unchanging nationalist grievances then maybe that makes sense, but you're simply wrong if that's the case I'm sympathetic to seeing the American alliance system in East Asia as a form of imperialism, but I also think that South Korea's relationship with the US is objectively probably the best deal / geopolitical status that's possible for it. It gets to demand equal status to Japan and implicitly gets American protection from all three of its neighbors. The left in South Korea may not like that, but it's the cold hard truth IMO icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 06:03 on Jun 17, 2018 |
|
#
?
Jun 17, 2018 05:19
|
|
|
‘No, no, we’re actually the good imperialists, honest!’ This is what neo-Cons actually believe
|
|
#
?
Jun 17, 2018 05:49
|
|
|
icantfindaname posted:There's pretty much 0 reason to think China would treat such a Korea any better than it treats all of its other neighbors. Frankly if the USA pulled out of East Asia or pulled back Chinese hostility toward Japan would probably decrease and they might very well team up in re-imperializing the Koreans, if not formally and explicitly then tacitly. If your view of how imperialism works is based on primordial and unchanging nationalist grievances then maybe that makes sense, but you're simply wrong if that's the case How China treats its neighbours has been dependent on the geopolitical context and the political motivations of the Chinese leadership. Current Sino-Korean relations are fairly decent, they are major trading partners, and quick allies when it comes to calling out Japan. I'm not discussing accusations of American imperialism, they aren't particularly relevant to how China would treat a hypothetical unified Korea; probably with glee; they'll need massive investment from the PRC and will be dependent on the PRC as their largest trading partner in that eventuality (And it seems increasingly likely that the US won't or can't step in to compete with the PRC). Realistically from the PRC perspective a unified Korea has so many upsides that if they can successfully finlandize Korea that would be up there with unification with Taiwan in terms of foreign policy accomplishments. The Korean perspective can't be neglected or dismissed, Korea would have real substantial reasons sharing a land border to want positive relations; as long as Korea is willing to make work I have no reason to assume China won't at least try to also make it work when they have so many fields of mutual interest and the number of US troops on the peninsula isn't very large to begin with. I think it's naive to just assume that China will keep stepping on racks indefinitely.
|
|
#
?
Jun 17, 2018 07:18
|
|
|
icantfindaname posted:I'm sympathetic to seeing the American alliance system in East Asia as a form of imperialism What's different about the East Asia alliances from NATO? Or are the US-European alliances imperialism too?
|
|
#
?
Jun 17, 2018 16:30
|
|
|
Raspberry Jam It In Me posted:What's different about the East Asia alliances from NATO? Or are the US-European alliances imperialism too? Because those are agreements imposed on the little people by western powers and the local comprador class while NATO is an alliance of imperialists and colonialists themselves
|
|
#
?
Jun 17, 2018 16:51
|
|
|
Raenir Salazar posted:How China treats its neighbours has been dependent on the geopolitical context and the political motivations of the Chinese leadership. Current Sino-Korean relations are fairly decent, they are major trading partners, and quick allies when it comes to calling out Japan. I'm not discussing accusations of American imperialism, they aren't particularly relevant to how China would treat a hypothetical unified Korea; probably with glee; they'll need massive investment from the PRC and will be dependent on the PRC as their largest trading partner in that eventuality (And it seems increasingly likely that the US won't or can't step in to compete with the PRC). Realistically from the PRC perspective a unified Korea has so many upsides that if they can successfully finlandize Korea that would be up there with unification with Taiwan in terms of foreign policy accomplishments. The Korean perspective can't be neglected or dismissed, Korea would have real substantial reasons sharing a land border to want positive relations; as long as Korea is willing to make work I have no reason to assume China won't at least try to also make it work when they have so many fields of mutual interest and the number of US troops on the peninsula isn't very large to begin with. All good points. I guess I'm wondering what impediments there are to picking up reunification efforts in China, if any?
|
|
#
?
Jun 17, 2018 18:00
|
|
|
An issue I see in this thread is that a lot of posters are too caught up in the classic military version of imperialism. China and most modern powers don't do that anymore. Chinese imperialism is economic imperialism; neo-colonialism, to use the more popular term. Vietnam found that out very quickly once the US left and they were allowed to reunify; if Korea believes they would somehow be able to avoid this they're fools. E: I should specify that I'm happy they've figured something out with the peninsula but there are a lot of issues that need to be resolved or examined and Trump is doing none of them. Grapplejack fucked around with this message at 21:56 on Jun 17, 2018 |
|
#
?
Jun 17, 2018 18:50
|
|
|
Raspberry Jam It In Me posted:It's been a common concern since the election and many people have written about it. He doesn't have the mental capacity to understand what he is negotiating about and the sycophants around him have no reason to tell him. What is the village idiot, who is known to be extremely petty and go into fits of rage, going to do once he finds out that the magic beans aren't real and so on. The fear has died down a lot though since people realized that he is too lazy to do anything that would involve actual work or stress. He just goes and takes a nap once he tires himself out screaming, and that's that I know people have made their predictions about what will happen if talks break down, but this fucker is literally playing up peoples fears to sell his lovely nuclear war fanfiction. That's why I'm pissed off https://twitter.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/1008413726515519489 Like seriously, what the gently caress?! And this isn't the first time this asshat has done this either https://www.washingtonpost.com/outl...m=.fd14e2a62aa7 Willo567 fucked around with this message at 19:40 on Jun 17, 2018 |
|
#
?
Jun 17, 2018 19:38
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 21, 2024 11:31 |
|
|
Grapplejack posted:An issue I see in this thread is that a lot of posters are too caught up in the classic military version of imperialism. China and most modern powers don't do that anymore. Chinese imperialism is economic imperialism; neo-colonialism, to use the more popular term. Vietnam found that out very quickly once the US left and they were allowed to reunify; if Korea believes they would somehow be able to avoid this they're fools. However nations can choose as to whether some position on the varied spectrum of possible economic imperialism is tolerable. Canada is unquestionable within the economic imperialism of the US; and sometimes takes steps to not be 100% there, preferring sometimes EU imperialism or Chinese imperialism, for some in-discrete amount of 'imperialism' (since this isn't quantifiable). Practically speaking, being under "American Imperialism", is an relatively acceptable state of affairs compared to a large number of alternate possibilities that may not be preferable. Korea could very well find some inevitable degree of "Chinese imperialism" to be an acceptable tradeoff in exchange for unification; additionally it isn't like Korea doesn't have plenty of options to diversify itself to at least have a solid shot at counterbalancing its economy so the US, Japan, Taiwan, and the EU all have solidly large and proportional amounts of influence, but China is going to be able to tilt that seesaw towards it is something I don't think the Korean political class has any doubt about its happening; it's a question of degree and what can be done to get the most advantageous economic benefit as a result. In an ideal world for Korea they could rely on the US to "meet" Chinese influence and deals, but c'est la vie.
|
|
#
?
Jun 19, 2018 00:20
|
|