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Penny at 1.02 for sure and I say this as a Carson fanboy. Unless you are worried about.... Mike Davis
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Jun 21, 2018 18:13
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Penny at 2 even with that terrible line they did nothing to fix during the draft?
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Jun 21, 2018 18:18
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RCarr posted:Penny at 2 even with that terrible line they did nothing to fix during the draft? You are drafting purely on available opportunities. Guice isn't getting it because they already said Thompson is their 3rd down back. Michel (ha have fun in that NE backfield). Chubb (same thing here... Duke is 3rd down back since he was just signed to an extension and Hyde is still the starter). Freeman (they already said Booker is going to be handling majority of the work) RoJo (change of pace back who is already announced to be getting max 10-15 carries) Kerryon (Blount on the goal line and Riddick on 3rd down) Penny has the clear cut path to being the teams #1 RB and 3rd down back. Bad line or not, would you rather take someone who gets 15-20+ touches a game, or someone with a better line who gets 5-10 touches a game?
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Jun 21, 2018 18:28
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Also this is dynasty so you have to think about talent, and about opportunity for the next few years, not just 2018. Who is going to stand out enough (and rise to that challenge) to still be a valuable starter for your team in 2020 and beyond? First round rookie draft picks should pay off long-term, not just short-term.
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Jun 21, 2018 18:32
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Alfalfa posted:You are drafting purely on available opportunities. Not sure I fully agree with this - 1) Guice is the best beck and has a path to 15-20 touches easy (cuz we like to rush the ball). 2) They've also commented positively on Guice's capacity to catch the ball, and CThomp has a tendency towards missing games. 3) Most recent info on RoJo suggests 15-20 touches per week, not 10-15. I personally have Penny/Guice on the same tier, then RoJo and Michel.
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Jun 21, 2018 18:35
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Yeah I want the guy with the most talent, regardless of if he will be the highest scoring fantasy player of the group this year. Unless whoever I draft is a dud, I will have them on my team for 5+ years minimum.
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Jun 21, 2018 18:35
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Alfalfa posted:You are drafting purely on available opportunities. I flip flop between Penny and Guice as my 1.02 (both are 1st round talents in decent situations), so don't totally disagree, but you're putting way too much stock in what's being said about rookies in June. More specifically, Chubb, Freeman, and Rojo are all good bets to get decent work this year. We saw just last year Dalvin Cook take over from Latavius Murray, despite even in late July that not being a sure thing, so way too early to count out Chubb as the starter. For Freeman, you're really worried about Booker? That job is wide open. And for Jones, again, you're counting it as set in stone that Peyton Barber is going to be the undisputed lead back?
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Jun 21, 2018 18:46
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sourdough posted:I flip flop between Penny and Guice as my 1.02 (both are 1st round talents in decent situations), so don't totally disagree, but you're putting way too much stock in what's being said about rookies in June. More specifically, Chubb, Freeman, and Rojo are all good bets to get decent work this year. Seattle didn't trade up into the 1st to grab Penny if they were worried he couldn't produce in their offense. Chubb, Rojo, and Guice will provide some value but the backfields are too crowded. If you are drafting 1.02 you aren't looking for a rookie to get decent work. You are looking for a rookie that has the opportunity to have a solid fantasy impact their rookie year & beyond. Especially in RCarr's league where there is no Taxi discounted salary and that pick is 8+% of your cap for the next few years.
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Jun 21, 2018 19:03
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The "20 Team League" thread from last season is locked. That's coming back for 2018, right? I am hoping we switch to auction this year. It would be super fun, and way more fair in a 20-team league. Wouldn't take that much longer, and you can peace out and autodraft (with pre-set values) after blowing your wad on your top players.
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Jun 23, 2018 23:31
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pmchem posted:The "20 Team League" thread from last season is locked. That's coming back for 2018, right? It will. Not sure if Jetsguy talked with Darkwolf yet because he expressed interest in becoming the commissioner last season. But one way or another the 20 team league will be back. But as much as I love auction drafts, I doubt it would ever work for that league. That draft would take forever to hold.
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Jun 25, 2018 00:46
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I will politely disagree; while it would be long, it’s already long as a snake. I run a 14-team auction league and the draft hums along. You don’t have all 14/20 people bidding on every player. The field quickly thins down to 2-4 serious bidders, and then to 2. After the big money players are gone it’s like any other draft.
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Jun 25, 2018 02:12
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pmchem posted:I will politely disagree; while it would be long, it’s already long as a snake. I run a 14-team auction league and the draft hums along. You don’t have all 14/20 people bidding on every player. The field quickly thins down to 2-4 serious bidders, and then to 2. After the big money players are gone it’s like any other draft. Hard to do this online, but one thing that really sped up my large (14+) team auctions irl is having people sit around the table and go clockwise either bidding or passing. Once you pass, you're out. Stops that whole "going... going... <bid>" crap from happening several times per player.
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Jun 25, 2018 20:53
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Drunk Nerds posted:Hard to do this online, but one thing that really sped up my large (14+) team auctions irl is having people sit around the table and go clockwise either bidding or passing. Once you pass, you're out. Stops that whole "going... going... <bid>" crap from happening several times per player. ESPN supports that. It does require the drafters actually clicking 'pass' (if they're not already autodrafting). People without the remaining budget to bid on a player are automatically out of the running, too.
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Jun 25, 2018 23:43
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pmchem posted:ESPN supports that. It does require the drafters actually clicking 'pass' (if they're not already autodrafting). People without the remaining budget to bid on a player are automatically out of the running, too. That's right, that speeds things up. The way my irl auction does it is we go player by player, "hey, you bidding or passing," and if you don't bid, you're out. "Going once... going twice..." really takes up a ton of time if you do it 3-5 times per player for 192 + players. Our first auction was 6 hours before we implemented it, then subsequent ones have always been about 4 hours.
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Jun 26, 2018 00:09
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Am I better off with Chris Carson for $2 or a 5th round rookie pick for $1 in my ppr dynasty salary cap league?
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Jun 26, 2018 18:53
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RCarr posted:Am I better off with Chris Carson for $2 or a 5th round rookie pick for $1 in my ppr dynasty salary cap league? Carson
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Jun 26, 2018 19:30
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Alfalfa posted:Carson I basically agree unless there's some rookie who fell who really shouldn't have.
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Jun 26, 2018 20:25
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5th round in dynasty has most people not even drafting any more and is scarcely better than a free agent pickup.
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Jun 27, 2018 22:41
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    Edited for correct order of my point Spoeank fucked around with this message at 22:50 on Jun 29, 2018 |
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Jun 29, 2018 22:09
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3 games is not a useful data set, but also, sure
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Jun 29, 2018 22:42
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Leperflesh posted:3 games is not a useful data set, but also, sure I put those in the wrong order. I was talking with/without zeke and that he didn't crater without dez (to stem the tide on that potential argument)
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Jun 29, 2018 22:50
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I expect typically your #1 WR is less important than your bellcow back, yes
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Jun 29, 2018 23:09
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Leperflesh posted:I expect typically your #1 WR is less important than your bellcow back, yes For a QB's passing numbers?
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Jun 30, 2018 00:08
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Here's the point of my post, which I thought was going to be clearer than it was: Dak was performing just fine last season until Zeke went bye-bye with the suspension. Dak's numbers were not all that different without Dez when he was out. Dak is going around kickers and DSTs and may be a good value pick because his struggles in the second half last year seem to be due to defenses being able to tee off on him without zeke.
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Jun 30, 2018 00:20
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Spoeank posted:Here's the point of my post, which I thought was going to be clearer than it was: Dak was performing just fine last season until Zeke went bye-bye with the suspension. Dak's numbers were not all that different without Dez when he was out. Dak is going around kickers and DSTs and may be a good value pick because his struggles in the second half last year seem to be due to defenses being able to tee off on him without zeke. Don’t worry. I got what you meant by the original post. Gonna take a few weeks/months for others to shake the rust off.
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Jun 30, 2018 00:22
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Alfalfa posted:Don’t worry. I got what you meant by the original post. Same
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Jun 30, 2018 00:30
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sourdough posted:For a QB's passing numbers? Maybe? You practice and plan routes and plays with a bunch of WRs and the team has TEs and catching RBs as well. But you only have a depth chart of RBs of like 4, and 2-4 are often specialists. Plus your RB1 pass blocks on option plays, especially if he's a bellcow three-downs type back who has to be able to do that well to take that role. Maybe when there's a big fall off from your WR1 to your WR2, that could be more significant? Like, probably Ben's passing without Antonio Brown are probably worse than when he's missing LeVeon Bell instead, but actually I'd be real interested in whether that is the case or not, now I'm thinking about it.
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Jun 30, 2018 00:40
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Spoeank posted:Dak is going around kickers and DSTs That's because in 1QB leagues that's what a qb outside the top 3 or 4 is worth
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Jun 30, 2018 01:15
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except kickers and D/STs should be taken in the final two rounds of your draft, if you're forced to take them during the draft at all, so your QB1 or evne your QB2 in a 1QB team should be taken before them, always.
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Jun 30, 2018 01:24
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Leperflesh posted:Like, probably Ben's passing without Antonio Brown are probably worse than when he's missing LeVeon Bell instead, but actually I'd be real interested in whether that is the case or not, now I'm thinking about it. Friend, all this information, and more can be found with the RotoViz Splits App on their site. That's where those DakStats(tm) came from The only problem is AB84 has missed 1 game since Lev Bell entered the league. https://i.imgur.com/hkpFx2S.png https://i.imgur.com/Ctr57S0.png
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Jun 30, 2018 01:29
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IcePhoenix posted:That's because in 1QB leagues that's what a qb outside the top 3 or 4 is worth No way. Top 3 go by round 5. Next 5 typically go by round 9. Rest of the starters should be gone by 12 the latest
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Jun 30, 2018 01:30
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Leperflesh posted:except kickers and D/STs should be taken in the final two rounds of your draft, if you're forced to take them during the draft at all Sure, and you can add QBs to that and just make it last three quote:so your QB1 or evne your QB2 in a 1QB team should be taken before them, always. lol rostering a QB2 In a league with 25 ypp, bonus points at 300, 400, and 500 yard milestones, -1 int, -1 sack, -2 lost fumbles, the difference between the 4th QB (roethlisberger) and the 12th QB (bort) was ~38 points. That's like 2.5 points per week (assuming 15 games) between the top third and complete bottom of the "QB1" listing. It's nothing.
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Jun 30, 2018 04:31
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The strategy of waiting til the 3rd to last round to grab a QB is great when you're thinking about it. But there's a 100% chance in a draft with your RL friends that's not gonna end up happening when dumb asses in your league start grabbing back up QB's in the 10th round and you're stuck with Sam Bradford in the 12th if you go according to your plan. Most everyone here can agree that waiting on a QB is the best route, but people here don't mainly draft with goons which lots of times renders our strategies moot outside this forum. Looking back at my drafts last year, in nearly all my redraft leagues I was p much forced to grab a QB earlier than i wanted too just so i wouldn't end up with a bottom half QB. Now in the end, this will just benefit us as we're able to pick lots more value at WR/RB, so thank god for dumb friends. VietCampo fucked around with this message at 04:55 on Jun 30, 2018 |
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Jun 30, 2018 04:42
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Obviously you have to adjust your strategy based on your league, yeah. But I generally have a list of QBs I'm happy with I draft one when the list gets down to two or three (unless I know with certainty that nobody will pick another QB). The last couple years I've been able to wait until the last round to do so.
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Jun 30, 2018 05:09
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Unfortunately the thread archived so I can’t post this in GoonTier: I made the decision to quit fantasy football across the board. If anyone wants to step up and keep this league going, let me know and I’ll help you out. I am permanently shamed, limping into the sunset as a relegated tier b plebe.
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Jun 30, 2018 17:58
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Good stat I just heard from Mike Tagliere: no team had top ten RB, top ten TE and two top 30 WR last season. By current ADP Kareem Hunt: RB8 Travis Kelce: TE2 Tyreek Hill: WR11 Sammy Watkins: WR30 That's a lot to put at Mahomes' feet
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Jun 30, 2018 21:04
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Spoeank posted:Good stat I just heard from Mike Tagliere: no team had top ten RB, top ten TE and two top 30 WR last season. How often has it ever happened?
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Jun 30, 2018 21:13
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I'm gonna square that when I get home because I had the same question.
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Jun 30, 2018 21:18
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Does anyone know a good source of historical fantasy data, pairing pre-season predictions/rankings with actual end-of-season results, over many years? If we find a suitable source I'll make some pretty pictures and calculate some numbers for the thread.
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Jun 30, 2018 22:52
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:How often has it ever happened? I pulled these numbers off FFToday, using Yahoo! standard scoring, going back to 2005. Here are the teams, by year, that had a top-ten RB, top-ten TE and two top-thirty WRs 2017 - none 2016 - none 2015 - none 2014 - Chicago 2013 - Chicago, Denver (they had 3 top-30 WRs) 2012 - none 2011 - Atlanta 2010 - none 2009 - Indianapolis, Minnesota 2008 - Houston 2007 - none 2006 - none 2005 - none Misc nonsense: In 2012, the Ravens had two within the top 31; in 2011, the Saints, Chargers and Eagles had two within the top 35.` It owns that only two QBs have pulled it off twice, and the only one to do it B2B was Smokin' Jay Spoeank fucked around with this message at 02:52 on Jul 1, 2018 |
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Jun 30, 2018 23:09
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