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Shear Modulus posted:it sounds like hes trying to run as a faux progressive but is just way less savvy at it than say gillibrand or khanna or even harris, and thinks people will still be fooled by saying youre progressive without any specifics His beagle-murdering platform is extremely progressive
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Jul 14, 2018 03:18
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Ghost Leviathan posted:A
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Jul 14, 2018 03:25
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Shear Modulus posted:yeah mailers and TV ads are done by dem consultants who charge handsome fees but theres very little room for a consultant to insert himself between a campaign and facebook Years ago my wife was involved with a local election campaign where she did a bunch of direct mailers from Vistaprint, did the design, labels and postage herself and each mailer was around $700. Well the local party kicked in a few bucks for another direct mailer, but it had to be through this consultant whom they consistently worked with, some bigwig in the state party who apparently was relevant 20 years ago. When I eventually saw the lit piece it was clearly from this template he used all the time, looked like poo poo, basically a wall of text, and the cost was $2500, and he had done one for multiple candidates. So figure $2500 x 7 worth of grifting. That's when I learned, firsthand, that consultants are bullshit, but it's a sweet gig if you can get it.
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Jul 14, 2018 03:55
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unbutthurtable posted:this man looks like a cartoon Pretty sure that's a Tintin character.
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Jul 14, 2018 04:00
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SKULL.GIF posted:lmao that hillary's emails actually were a national security issue and probably cost the election There was an interview on Sam's show with Mary Wheeler, who is a part of that site. She has some interesting speculation on how this all could play out. One of the more notable points she made was the Steele Dossier was disinformation bait by the Russians. Sam does says the "pee" tape is real at the end though. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klEe6ryBXbc&t=1321s
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Jul 14, 2018 04:03
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"https://www.repository.law.indiana.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1287&context=ilj posted:Indeed, the fact that nothing has been done suggests that this might be the right answer. This is from some paper which I was looking through in consideration of the idea of banning lame duck pardons for presidents in their second term. They make enough good points that they convinced me the legitimate pardons outweigh the few illegitimate pardons and make it a bad idea, but that'd be less urgent with a death penalty exemption added into it. Anyway, it seemed like a quote which belonged in the suck zone
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Jul 14, 2018 04:07
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https://twitter.com/yungneocon/status/1017951576831426560?s=19
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Jul 14, 2018 04:13
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Yeah my instinctive reaction to the headline was literally "this but unironically"
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Jul 14, 2018 04:28
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https://twitter.com/kibblesmith/status/1017968382220611585?s=19 https://twitter.com/calumcrupach/status/1017975487954595842?s=19
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Jul 14, 2018 04:40
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https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1017902010526588930
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Jul 14, 2018 04:46
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if running private email servers to circumvent the weaknesses of publicly-run servers was such a bad idea, there wouldn't have been a precedent for Clinton to follow
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Jul 14, 2018 04:48
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and yet it happened because podesta tried to log into freerussianringtones.com.ru
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Jul 14, 2018 04:49
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some older but i believe unposted virgin succ https://twitter.com/mediaite/status/1017903065934987265?s=21
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Jul 14, 2018 04:55
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Wraith of J.O.I. posted:some older but i believe unposted virgin succ being partisan is giving the other partisan party a gift, got it
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Jul 14, 2018 04:56
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Wraith of J.O.I. posted:some older but i believe unposted virgin succ you would know a thing or two about gift-giving wouldn’t you eric
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Jul 14, 2018 04:56
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the dread eye turns onto Whiskey Juvenile and Galactic Acid https://twitter.com/Shialabeefsteak/status/1017318854593134594
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Jul 14, 2018 04:58
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CheeseSpawn posted:There was an interview on Sam's show with Mary Wheeler, who is a part of that site. She has some interesting speculation on how this all could play out. One of the more notable points she made was the Steele Dossier was disinformation bait by the Russians. Sam does says the "pee" tape is real at the end though. emptywheel is Marcy Wheeler's nom de blog and she has been a really good reporter on the Mueller investigation, and also NSA spying and intelligence courts hell yeah give that goon who set it up a medal
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Jul 14, 2018 05:00
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SKULL.GIF posted:the dread eye turns onto Whiskey Juvenile and Galactic Acid https://twitter.com/wokeimperialist/status/1017615818480287744
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Jul 14, 2018 05:05
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Office Pig posted:you would know a thing or two about gift-giving wouldn’t you eric yeah was gonna make that joke jesus loving christ gently caress you holder
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Jul 14, 2018 05:11
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SKULL.GIF posted:lmao that hillary's emails actually were a national security issue and probably cost the election So what is being implied here that the Russians stole the data and messed with it to gently caress with the Dems campaign strategy?
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Jul 14, 2018 05:16
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I'm glad the US is agitating towards civil war when one side is armed and the other is anti-gun. Should be some good live streams out of this in a decade or so.
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Jul 14, 2018 05:20
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Wraith of J.O.I. posted:some older but i believe unposted virgin succ This loser won't even be the 2020 Jeb!. He'll be the Gilmore.
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Jul 14, 2018 05:33
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Ramrod Hotshot posted:So what is being implied here test applications here would be "here is what our data says and here is the result when we run it through x model" basically, they knew every strategy the DNC was running from a demographics standpoint. so they snapshotted result models. this means that, (and im being EXTREMELY generous here), hillarys models could have predicted a huge wisconsin/florida win in her favor and thats why they focused all of their attention on extremely specific parts of these states. they basically could have used the dncs predictive models against them by finding the weakest link in them -- for example, finding the weakest districts and running voter disenfranchisement campaigns and finding her least enthused voters and running direct negative ad campaigns there. that is from my best understanding, the best possible result they could have achieved with this hacking. that said, she should have, i dunno, loving showed up to wisconsin. anime was right has issued a correction as of 05:46 on Jul 14, 2018 |
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Jul 14, 2018 05:42
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Ramrod Hotshot posted:So what is being implied here not even that, just that the Russians stole the data for Hillary's campaign strategy and told the Trump campaign so they'd know where the Hillary campaign would (and wouldn't) be focusing its resources meanwhile, hillary was flat-out refusing to allow people to campaign in Michigan because she thought it would just draw the Trump campaign's attention there
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Jul 14, 2018 05:48
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Ramrod Hotshot posted:So what is being implied here https://nplusonemag.com/online-only/online-only/confirmation-bias/ the clinton campaign determined the structure of their entire campaign off of an algorithm called Ada. this program took a bunch of polling data, ran simulations and created a plan on where to campaign and how much resources to allocate per state. this output of this program was treated as sacred writ from everything i've heard about the election, and followed slavishly. despite this high tech system, it failed miserably and was the main reason clinton failed to campaign in the midwest. at best, they only stole ada, and were able to use it to learn exactly where clinton was spending their money at any given moment, a pretty huge advantage worst case scenario is they messed with the algorithm subtly, causing Ada to misallocate resources. an alternative version of this is that the russians didn't touch the sourcecode, but were able to alter how ada allocated resources by altering input variables under their control. for instance, if ada used trump's advertising levels per state as an input, you could easily run a bunch of simulations to find the combination of advertising spending levels that minimizes funds spent by clinton in michigan and wisconsin. find the distribution of advertising inputs that does this, set those spending levels and clinton's ada algorithm will mirror your copy and pull resources away from michigan and wisconsin. note that this would have been much less of an issue for a campaign that didn't rely 100% on unverifiable computer algorithms, and say took input from local campaign offices on how to allocate resources. always have people doing sanity checks on the results of these types of programs.
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Jul 14, 2018 05:49
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the power of this kind of hacking is that the person with the highest amount of money spending more and more on data means that if hillary spent, say, half of her money on data models that actually worked and the trump campaign had access to these, then they do not need to spend these millions, they can instead purchase ads based on these models -- this is a far more efficient way to run a campaign. it also might mean trump showed up to specific areas because hillarys own data gave them that sort of information. he was notably focused on areas that won him the election. between stuff like CA and not lighting their own money on fire, he could have done this himself, mind you. but it also means he could have had models based on RNCs voter databases + the DNC's "weakest link" voters, allowing for a more complete data campaign. in essence even though trump basically cheated in this scenario, he still ran a better campaign with these tools. also if the russians/CA were doing this sort of poo poo, it means hillarys money advantage was not nearly as strong as it appeared.
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Jul 14, 2018 05:51
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It still seems like the Hillary campaign was doing the bare minimum of effort. I've mentioned that the money advantage of establishment Democrats may be downright detrimental now because of the obligatory consultant class it comes with demanding they spend it all on their preferred method of advertising and usually grift massive amounts for themselves in the process.
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Jul 14, 2018 05:53
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Wraith of J.O.I. posted:some older but i believe unposted virgin succ As an attorney general who refused to prosecute wall street criminals, he knows about not giving anything.
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Jul 14, 2018 05:55
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here's what wheeler says https://mobile.twitter.com/emptywheel/status/1017948112080564224
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Jul 14, 2018 06:01
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:As an attorney general who refused to prosecute wall street criminals, he knows about not giving anything. digging into old 2009-2014 stuff on this topic For nationalization of the banks: http://inthesetimes.com/article/18816/big-banks-too-big-to-fail-nationalize-democratize-finance Against nationalization of the banks: http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/10/05/why-we-were-right-not-to-nationalize-the-banks/ We can't nationalize the banks when they fail, because we'd absorb the losses. We can't nationalize the banks when they're doing great, because maybe they've got their act together this time and they've stopped taking unconscionable risks, even while the government was saying they're still too big to prosecute. Executives are "too insulated" from responsibility and responsibility is "diffuse" so you can't prosecute the bad apples, so really, no one is responsible. galenanorth has issued a correction as of 06:11 on Jul 14, 2018 |
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Jul 14, 2018 06:03
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new Sorry to Bother You movie is anti-succ
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Jul 14, 2018 06:03
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loving lol doubtful Unless it was hard to hack due to mcaffee updating once or something.
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Jul 14, 2018 06:10
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the GoD123 password was a mix of upper and lower case as opposed to just lower case
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Jul 14, 2018 06:14
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Also Russia having access to the ADA models does nothing for the fact that Clinton hit cruise control on her campaign robot, told her husband to shut his presidency winning mouth, and hosed off for like 6 months only to lose. Russia didn't hack Clinton, unless that's why she kept collapsing or something
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Jul 14, 2018 06:15
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ThndrShk2k posted:Also Russia having access to the ADA models does nothing for the fact that Clinton hit cruise control on her campaign robot, told her husband to shut his presidency winning mouth, and hosed off for like 6 months only to lose. I remember how after the DNC Hillary right up till the 9/11 thing like spent over a month almost entirely doing fundraisers in The Hamptons, LA, SF, and New York. Trump was speeding around the country, but she was so sure she had this in the bag. Also I think she was for the most part doing the same thing after Bernie conceded.
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Jul 14, 2018 06:20
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Crowsbeak posted:I remember how after the DNC Hillary right up till the 9/11 thing like spent over a month almost entirely doing fundraisers in The Hamptons, LA, SF, and New York. Trump was speeding around the country, but she was so sure she had this in the bag. Also I think she was for the most part doing the same thing after Bernie conceded. i agree that the clinton campaign's overconfidence was a bigger factor in their loss than russian hacking. that said, this is like 3 watergates stapled together already. the ineffectiveness of nixon's plumbers didn't stop impeachment (not that the current crowd of democrats has the spine to do that anyway.)
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Jul 14, 2018 06:32
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the democrats are refusing to say its watergate. they are following along with trumps narrative that the russian govt did the whole thing by themselves and that there was NO COLLUSION
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Jul 14, 2018 06:37
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The truth is that the Dems by pretty much allowing CNN and especially MSNBC start claiming poo poo about Trump being a Russian agent destroyed any actual real believability to Russian collusion in the Trump campaign.
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Jul 14, 2018 06:46
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lol if you dont want this, just lol
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Jul 14, 2018 06:48
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It's a smoke but no fire situation. There's a lot of circumstantial evidence that implicates Trump, but nothing that directly ties him to collusion the same way Nixon personally formed the plumbers. By misrepresenting facts and overblowing the real impact that any of it may have had, it's just impossible to care about any of it - unless it's an excuse for why the Democratic party doesn't have to change anything.
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Jul 14, 2018 06:49
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