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kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Could be anybody from disgruntled hardliners in the Oromia and Amhara opposition cluster to disgruntled Tigray People's Liberation Front aligned hardliners who lost the internal power struggle and are uncomfortable with his reforms.

There's a decent enough list of suspects tbh

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Toplowtech
Aug 31, 2004

If we don't limit ourself to interior enemies, it could also be the Egyptian secret services who don't want a stronger government south of the Nile.

Toplowtech fucked around with this message at 15:42 on Jun 24, 2018

ANYTHING YOU SOW
Nov 7, 2009

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:

How so? Given the typical nature of state institutions in Africa I figured these reforms (and more FDI) would be a good thing, but I also don’t know too much about the Ethiopian case specifically.

There are well performing state owned companies in Ethiopia - Ethiopian airlines is most prominent example, it is profitable and biggest airline in africa. It has been important factor in success of horticultural industry and is growing quickly and moving into manufacturing components. If it was owned by foreign investors would it still be taking these risks rather than just focusing on returning easier profits to the owners?

I'm definitely not an expert but have read Made in Africa: Industrial Policy in Ethiopia by Arkebe Oqubay (important figure in government who has apparently been kept on by Abiy), which outlines the developmental state model(probably somewhere between the Chinese and South Korean models) they have been following.

Poor quality institutions is a problem, but if a government cannot run a SOE well, then it probably can't privatize and regulate it effectively either.

awesmoe
Nov 30, 2005

Pillbug

Grouchio posted:

Alright who's the bloke who tried to blow up Abiy?

my b

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD
Jul 7, 2012

ANYTHING YOU SOW posted:

I'm definitely not an expert but have read Made in Africa: Industrial Policy in Ethiopia by Arkebe Oqubay (important figure in government who has apparently been kept on by Abiy), which outlines the developmental state model(probably somewhere between the Chinese and South Korean models) they have been following.
Thanks, adding this to my amazon list.

So it sounds like the attempt on Mnangagwa's life may have been a Grace Mugabe thing, surprising no one.

Toplowtech
Aug 31, 2004

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:

Thanks, adding this to my amazon list.

So it sounds like the attempt on Mnangagwa's life may have been a Grace Mugabe thing, surprising no one.
Yeah, the G40 group. Things should become "interesting".

Aurubin
Mar 17, 2011

Anyone know why Eritrea and Eithiopia suddenly decided to stop shooting at one another?

Toplowtech
Aug 31, 2004

Aurubin posted:

Anyone know why Eritrea and Eithiopia suddenly decided to stop shooting at one another?
Abiy Ahmed said last month that Ethiopia would abide by a 2002 UN-backed ruling, made after a two-year frontier war, and hand back disputed border territory, including the flashpoint town of Badme, to Eritrea. Which is like 95% of the reasons Eritrea was at war.

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD
Jul 7, 2012

God, what a surreal video.

Doc Neutral
Jan 31, 2014
Possible civil war brewing in Cameroon between the francophone led and dominated government and the anglophone region.

:nms:Video of mothers and their children being executed by what seems to be armed men in camo who're either part of the army or some kind of militia.:nms:

Toplowtech
Aug 31, 2004

That poo poo has been going on for years and it always confuse me because Cameroon got its share of idiots blaming a French government plot for every bad news and the bad weather. But the second someone dare to speak English during a protest about the perceived oppression of the anglophone by the francophone population, the military go full rear end in a top hat and bullets start flying. :derp:
The government also spent a lot of money setting up bilingual (english and french) universities, schools and administrations but in practice they have very very few people speaking both French and English(but a lot speak a pidgin mixing both), it's more of a Nigeria-aligned Protestant group versus Cameroon-reactionary Catholic group thing, if you ask me, with their inability to understand each other as a great excuse to murder people.

Edit: you would think the Nigeria-Cameroon tensions over the Golf of Guinea's Oil would go down because the price of oil is going down those days and the war was in the 90s but from time to time tensions flare horribly.

Toplowtech fucked around with this message at 22:06 on Jul 14, 2018

Kurtofan
Feb 16, 2011

hon hon hon
How did english cameroon get lumped with french cameroon anyway

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Kurtofan posted:

How did english cameroon get lumped with french cameroon anyway

It was all originally the German colony of Kamerun but after the First World War it was divided between France and Britain until independence, when they reunited except for a slice that became part of Nigeria.

Thanks, colonialism!

Vincent Van Goatse fucked around with this message at 00:01 on Jul 15, 2018

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
What a country. So are there also German-speaking areas or communities left over? Wikipedia doesn't go into this.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

mobby_6kl posted:

What a country. So are there also German-speaking areas or communities left over? Wikipedia doesn't go into this.

I don't think there are.

20 Blunts
Jan 21, 2017
I was just about to post about Cameroon in this thread but I didn't know if there was much interest.

My partner was briefly working in central Cameroon earlier this summer. There is sort of the feeling that what is going in the west (Anglophones in Douala and "Ambazonia") is contained to the west. Same story with Boko Haram in the far north east. Perhaps its complacency.

I believe the next presidential elections are set for October, and whatever happens then could set off more political movement and the situation might develop more rapidly. Right now these incidents keep occurring but it doesn't seem like anything is going in one direction or another. There were also some wish-washy reports coming out that terrorists who stole government uniforms had committed some atrocities...so yeah, its not pretty. From what I understand longtime president Biya is very much a "law and order" leader and a vast majority of the country is not only stable but pretty safe and doing alright. I mean, back during the Ebola outbreak Cameroon had the infrastructure to fight back with great success.

The other thing that is weird...we hear about an Anglophone v. Francophone Cameroon but there should be the qualification "...as second-language" with that. Most people parlay in indigenous tongue but only need to speak the European language on business or official matters. Its a super diverse and beautiful country.

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

I don't think there are.

Funny story from my partner - she found a substantial Romanian community and a Romanian-run Italian restaurant in north Cameroon. Apparently the Romanian government gives some perks for doing that? The way she describes it you can run into a lot of cultural surprises in the country.

20 Blunts fucked around with this message at 01:05 on Jul 15, 2018

Kurtofan
Feb 16, 2011

hon hon hon

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

I don't think there are.

Yeah germany lost all their colonies after ww1

Saladman
Jan 12, 2010
I don’t think Cameroon was ever actually settled by colonial powers in any significant way, unlike say, Namibia, where German is still widely spoken by descendants of both whites and blacks.

Also lol at the "election" in October. I’m a time traveler so I’ll ruin the surprise: Biya wins in a landslide.

I had some friends who worked in Yaoundé for 5-6 years and went and visited them a while ago and we did a road trip around the western highlands. Lovey area but even at that time we were warned to stay away from the "English speaking” areas because of unrest, and this was 2011, so we didn’t get any closer than Dschang which was lovely. Dschang was a German colonial founded town but in 3 days there I didn’t see a single white person in any restaurant or hotel so if any of their descendants are still around, they’re an absurdly tiny minority, like Egyptian Jews or whatever.

Also iirc the ethnic groups span across the theoretical “linguistic” borders. The Bamenda people, I’m pretty sure, span across that region and Bamenda is a common native language in that area. I’m not sure how many other common major linguistic groups there are but it’s not like Papua New Guinea, so fighting over a colonial second language (from a power that wasn’t even in control all that long in the first place) seemed to me like that is probably not the real issue, but a plaster face over underlying problems. I never really looked into it though.

Also one kind of fun thing: you can tell which cities are founded (and probably majority settled by) Bamenda people because the city names overwhelmingly start with the letters/sound “Ba”.

Toplowtech
Aug 31, 2004

Kurtofan posted:

Yeah germany lost all their colonies after ww1
Funnily enough, because of the German colonies loss, i have seen some anti-colonial Africans expressing their preference in dealing with modern day Germany because i quote "they don't have a colonial culture, unlike your country :france:". Which i have always found extremely weird and quite forgiving toward uncle Wilhelm's Herero and Namaqua genocide. Of course, that argument is pushed by modern German corporations so i guess it's mostly the free market loving Africa again.

Saladman posted:

so fighting over a colonial second language (from a power that wasn't even in control all that long in the first place) seemed to me like that is probably not the real issue, but a plaster face over underlying problems. I never really looked into it though.
The linguistic divide being only the visible top of the poo poo iceberg of less visible tribal, national and economic conflicts is actually a lot of people impressions of the whole situation. It also make each group easier to separate and make it easier to explain in the news.

Toplowtech fucked around with this message at 09:49 on Jul 15, 2018

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

Toplowtech posted:

Funnily enough, because of the German colonies loss, i have seen some anti-colonial Africans expressing their preference in dealing with modern day Germany because i quote "they don't have a colonial culture, unlike your country :france:". Which i have always found extremely weird and quite forgiving toward uncle Wilhelm's Herero and Namaqua genocide. Of course, that argument is pushed by modern German corporations so i guess it's mostly the free market loving Africa again.

I mean France was thrown into disarray just during the last election season when Macron suggested apologizing for the history of colonialism. Germans have been pretty good at shedding the legacy of militarism and colonialism compared to the French and Brits, AFAIK, though a narrative about being historically less imperialistic would be false.

Toplowtech
Aug 31, 2004

steinrokkan posted:

I mean France was thrown into disarray just during the last election season when Macron suggested apologizing for the history of colonialism. Germans have been pretty good at shedding the legacy of militarism and colonialism compared to the French and Brits, AFAIK, though a narrative about being historically less imperialistic would be false.
Well it's maybe because i am French and i find your 'thrown into disarray" slightly excessive (we can do far worse disarray-wise then the little bullshit polemic to which you are referring) but the thing is the "disarray" was mostly minor protests by the Harkis, descendants of pro french algeria muslims now living in France(who are considered descendants of traitors by many modern Algerians*) which found themselves betrayed by Macron attempt to heal the old rifts. When we lost Algeria tons of Muslims Algerian who believed in French Algeria were forced to come to France and let's say we don't have the best history in accepting large Muslim population well.

* and some Frenchmen of Algerian descent, i remember Zidane calling them as such. Ignore the fact Algeria massacred 100k-150k of them while De Gaulle did nothing.

Toplowtech fucked around with this message at 11:12 on Jul 15, 2018

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Kurtofan posted:

Yeah germany lost all their colonies after ww1
They did but (white?) people still speak German in Namibia for example.

Saladman
Jan 12, 2010

mobby_6kl posted:

They did but (white?) people still speak German in Namibia for example.

A lot of Germans also moved to Namibia after it became part of South Africa as well. Part of my wife's family is Namibian, and that branch of the family left Germany in the mid 1920s in the midst of the German economic collapse.

A lot of black Namibians also speak German as a second language and it is quite commonly heard and used across the country, or at least the parts of the country that tourists go to (which is basically everywhere except the densely populated farming area north of Etosha). It's a small percentage of the population, but the German-descended Namibians have such outsized economic power in private business, and Germans make up such a huge proportion of tourists, that it's still a relevant language. For whatever reason it seems to be far, far more relevant among white Namibians' private lives than either Afrikaans or English (e.g. the Windhoek carnival is primarily German) but this could also be a viewership bias of my own, given my views through my vicarious connection to Namibia and my single three week trip through the country.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

Toplowtech posted:

Well it's maybe because i am French and i find your 'thrown into disarray" slightly excessive (we can do far worse disarray-wise then the little bullshit polemic to which you are referring) but the thing is the "disarray" was mostly minor protests by the Harkis, descendants of pro french algeria muslims now living in France(who are considered descendants of traitors by many modern Algerians*) which found themselves betrayed by Macron attempt to heal the old rifts. When we lost Algeria tons of Muslims Algerian who believed in French Algeria were forced to come to France and let's say we don't have the best history in accepting large Muslim population well.

* and some Frenchmen of Algerian descent, i remember Zidane calling them as such. Ignore the fact Algeria massacred 100k-150k of them while De Gaulle did nothing.

Thanks, that's more convoluted than the media portrayed it here to say the least.

Toplowtech
Aug 31, 2004

steinrokkan posted:

Thanks, that's more convoluted than the media portrayed it here to say the least.
To be honest the whole opposition to the recognition of colonialism as a criminal activity is pretty common fight in French right-wing circles but confusing it to the relatively small bullshit opposition to Macron's "Algeria was 50 years ago, let change thing" event is kinda missing the giant elephant next to it.
See apologia of colonialism in France isn't new but it kinda got worse after Chirac reelection in 2000 against Lepen, the hard right of the UMP(nowadays Les Republicains) including some former members from Le club de L'horlogue, the GUD and Occident ended up getting some place in the Ministry of Interior and the Foreign Affair under Chirac. They went for Sarkozy in the 2008 years and with the Sarkozy's constant attempt to get the FN voters, it ended up with a loving law celebrating the "benefits and positive side of Colonialism" because there is nothing like roads and hospitals to justify not applying basic human rights to a large part of the local populations.

Toplowtech fucked around with this message at 20:57 on Jul 15, 2018

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Toplowtech posted:

Funnily enough, because of the German colonies loss, i have seen some anti-colonial Africans expressing their preference in dealing with modern day Germany because i quote "they don't have a colonial culture, unlike your country :france:". Which i have always found extremely weird and quite forgiving toward uncle Wilhelm's Herero and Namaqua genocide. Of course, that argument is pushed by modern German corporations so i guess it's mostly the free market loving Africa again.

At least they made the Giraffe's run on time

Famous old time cartoon, racist and sexist
Germans in the top quarter, English in the 2nd, French in the bottom left, Belgians in the bottom left
http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b222/Sarmatia1871/ZZZZKolonialmaechte.jpg

Toplowtech
Aug 31, 2004

Zimbabwe election: Troops fire on MDC Alliance supporters
The Zanu-PF really changed when they put the crocodile in charge instead of the old man's wife.

Nick Biped
May 22, 2004

In the wrong hands, the stapler is a deadly weapon.

So in a sadly predictable result, the Crocodile pulls off the win in Zimbabwe. Not a landslide, but still by enough votes to avoid a run-off.

Zimbabwe election: Emmerson Mnangagwa wins election

Everything I've read sounds like it was probably fairer than when Mugabe was in charge, but there was still a fair bit of intimidation and shenanigans to make an MDC victory a really uphill battle from the start. Just hope it doesn't get too ugly now. The MDC supporters are already quite riled up.

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

Is unemployment less than 90% in Zimbabwe now?

pantslesswithwolves
Oct 28, 2008

Joseph Kabila announced that he won’t be seeking a third term in DRC’s upcoming elections. I’m actually pretty shocked by this; all the political maneuvering up until now suggested he would run for a (unconstitutional) third term.

RagnarokZ
May 14, 2004

Emperor of the Internet

pantslesswithwolves posted:

Joseph Kabila announced that he won’t be seeking a third term in DRC’s upcoming elections. I’m actually pretty shocked by this; all the political maneuvering up until now suggested he would run for a (unconstitutional) third term.

Looks like he might just do a Putin, leaving some patsy in the pretty office for a while.

Anyone know if DRC term limits are American-style or Russian-style?

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

BBC's Africa Eye project published the following video today about an execution video that was published a few months ago from Cameroon, where soldiers executed two women and two very young children in a loving horrific video, because they were supposedly Boko Haram:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbnLkc6r3yc

The BBC investigation came together with the help of my team at Bellingcat, started out as a workshop project trying to geolocate the video, and turned into a collaborative investigation between Bellingcat, the BBC, Amnesty International, and a bunch of keen amateurs from Twitter, resulting in the above video.

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD
Jul 7, 2012

Sub-Saharan Africa: Murdered by Ambazonians (poor taste, yes yes)

RagnarokZ posted:

Looks like he might just do a Putin, leaving some patsy in the pretty office for a while.

Anyone know if DRC term limits are American-style or Russian-style?
How do you mean? There are several available maneuvers he could use to replace Shadary with himself after the elections, Putin style. Question is, why bother going through with the whole election process anyway if you're going to face the same amount of international/regional criticism/pressure in the end anyway? My guess is that he'll just continue to rule the country de facto through Shadary while holding no de jure position at all.

e: on the subject of Cameroon, here is a very enlightening and balanced look at the current situation from DW. The presidential election results will supposedly be released on the 22nd. Everyone already knows it’s been rigged in Biya’s favor but still very worrying that there could be an uptick of violence in Yaounde and the southern region after the announcement. The whole country is a powder keg right now.

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD fucked around with this message at 18:36 on Oct 19, 2018

Cat Mattress
Jul 14, 2012

by Cyrano4747
Trump emboldens bloodthirsty fascists everywhere:

https://twitter.com/johnupton/status/1058447229973917696

Toplowtech
Aug 31, 2004

Cat Mattress posted:

Trump emboldens bloodthirsty fascists everywhere:

https://twitter.com/johnupton/status/1058447229973917696
Well, the whole Nigeria+Cameroon area is going to be a bloodbath if they all follow Trump's escalation doctrine.

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

Toplowtech posted:

Well, the whole Nigeria+Cameroon area is going to be a bloodbath if they all follow Trump's escalation doctrine.

I'm for one am shocked that the former head of a military junta would be shitastic on human rights.

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD
Jul 7, 2012

What's the D&D opinion on lifting sanctions against Eritrea? I get that there is apparently no evidence they've been supporting al-Shabaab, but they're still pretty lovely on human rights, if perhaps not uniquely so among sub-Saharan countries, press freedom being a notable exception. Although, considering how closed-in they are, sanctions might not be the best solution to that problem? Looking at the way Ethiopia is reforming, that gets to happen in the context of a (misplaced) "Africa Rising" narrative they've enjoyed for a while. Idk.

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

I wouldn't know either. I know next to nothing about ETH-ETR relations or civil war history so I couldn't tell you. But there's this:

Ethiopian Police Arrest Ex-Director of Renaissance Dam in Connection to June's PM Assassination Attempt

Which mean that construction on the Dam will no longer stall.

RagnarokZ
May 14, 2004

Emperor of the Internet

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:

What's the D&D opinion on lifting sanctions against Eritrea? I get that there is apparently no evidence they've been supporting al-Shabaab, but they're still pretty lovely on human rights, if perhaps not uniquely so among sub-Saharan countries, press freedom being a notable exception. Although, considering how closed-in they are, sanctions might not be the best solution to that problem? Looking at the way Ethiopia is reforming, that gets to happen in the context of a (misplaced) "Africa Rising" narrative they've enjoyed for a while. Idk.

Eritrea's Junta are loving psychotic lunatics who run their country like a giant prison camp, gently caress them.

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KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD
Jul 7, 2012

I don't think anyone refers to the government as a junta per se, just a one-man authoritarian state under Afwerki, who does indeed suck rear end.

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