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sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Alfalfa posted:

QB's also drafted that early typically are for QB desperate teams that don't have any resemblance of a starter ahead of them which is why they had the #1 or a top 5 pick to begin with.

See Goff, Wentz, Winston, Mariota, Bortles, Luck, Griffin, Newton, Bradford - those are all the QB's drafted in the top 5 since 2010.

None of them had an above average QB to start over them.

None of those teams went and traded for a QB to start while they learned.

I excluded Trubs because Mike Glennon was a stupid idea anyways.

Goff had last year's #2 by QBR stud Case Keemum ahead of him and the plan was definitely to have him sit, but he played half the year anyway. Wentz was expected to sit all year, but Eagles were fine to trade away Bradford and go to him instead. Gus Bradley said they'd keep Bortles off the field til 2015 during the 2014 off season. Trubs and Glennon definitely count, especially as proof of the cap hit unimportance theory :v: Tyrod doesn't seem to be viewed as more than a low end QB by actual NFL teams for whatever reason, certainly not above average or he'd be getting locked down to a big deal and getting paid.

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Ben Nevis
Jan 20, 2011

Leperflesh posted:

I'm kind of stunned at someone deciding not to keep each of those veterans, though. Maybe some of your leaguemates are idiots?

There are hard limits as to how long guys can be kept. Each of those guys was at the end of their time limit. There are other guys that may get thrown back, 3rd QB type guys, but not many.

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

If you're 10th maybe you should also draft Mahomes and ride that stud all the way to the winner's circle baby

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



sourdough posted:

Lol, it's almost like I said it's a completely different situation. Cap hit doesn't mean much was the point, spoeank brought it up.

I know you used that caveat, but why bring it up in the first place? You are saying cap hit doesn't matter, but historically in the NFL, the guy getting paid the most gets the most opportunities to succeed. I'm not saying it's right, just that NFL teams don't like admitting they made a mistake.

quote:

QBs drafted that early just don't sit out their rookie years, there's no mental gymnastics required. If you want to write an article laying out the reasons to expect otherwise for Baker (or Darnold), I'd be happy to read it. Go figure out if there are any comparable situations in the past decade or two and see what happened.

I agree with this. What I don't agree with is using this as a blanket statement saying all the quarterbacks will start. I think you have to look at the individual circumstances.

I think Rosen will see time, because Bradford is made of glass and Glennon is made of rear end. I think Darnold will see playing time, because I don't think McCown is good enough to hold him off. I think Josh Allen will see playing time because Buffalo will desperately try to find someone who isn't completely terrible.

With Tyrod, he doesn't turn the ball over much and is just good enough that I think he'll hold Mayfield.

quote:

Edit: Also, I'm surprised how quickly everyone (not just you) seems to be writing off Flacco. If the Ravens were so enamored with Jackson, they wouldn't have waited til pick 32 to try to trade back up and grab him. Long term, Jackson is a nice prospect, but having everyone pass on him, including the Ravens themselves for an old rookie TE, doesn't bode well for him in the short term. Rosen also is much more likely to sit as long as Bradford can stay healthy. Which, ya know, probably won't be long, but he did play 29 out of 32 games in 2015-2016.

They liked him enough to trade up into the first round to get him. Also, Flacco is pretty bad and I think I actually just wrote that player profile quickly hitting on why.

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it
https://www.fantasypros.com/2018/07/very-deep-sleeper-cordarrelle-patterson-fantasy-football-2018/

man we hit this part of the offseason early

Spermy Smurf
Jul 2, 2004
Every kicker is going to outscore that guy.

Benne
Sep 2, 2011

STOP DOING HEROIN
That is way too many goddamn words to write about Cordarrelle Patterson in tyool 2018

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Benne posted:

That is way too many goddamn words to write about Cordarrelle Patterson in tyool 2018

"Don't draft."

There. Got it in two.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!
It feels mean to pick on a Very Deep Sleeper list. He's deliberately picking out bottom of the barrel-types.

Patterson is going to be great for that one time he hits as a super-cheap DFS play.

Spermy Smurf
Jul 2, 2004
I just reread that article and I am not sure where to rank Patterson now.

Gurley
Zeke
DJohnson
Bell
Brown
Patterson
Julio
OBJ
Hopkins


Or should Julio be above Patterson? I cant decide between those two.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Tiptoes posted:

It feels mean to pick on a Very Deep Sleeper list. He's deliberately picking out bottom of the barrel-types.

Patterson is going to be great for that one time he hits as a super-cheap DFS play.

The article basically says that Patterson was used by Bad Coaches in the past, but that Belichik is a Good Coach who should make a WR run the ball more and create some kind of hybrid offensive weapon. Like fantasy gem Tavon Austin.

It's the kind of article that the writer gets to point to if he's right and nobody remembers if he's wrong. It's more fantasy than football.

If you want a deep sleeper, grab Keelan Cole.

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

The article basically says that Patterson was used by Bad Coaches in the past, but that Belichik is a Good Coach who should make a WR run the ball more and create some kind of hybrid offensive weapon. Like fantasy gem Tavon Austin.

It's the kind of article that the writer gets to point to if he's right and nobody remembers if he's wrong. It's more fantasy than football.

If you want a deep sleeper, grab Keelan Cole.

I mean hell if you're digging that deep, John Brown, Trent Taylor and DaeSean Hamilton are going after him on fantasypros ADP and have some sort of sleeper appeal you can justify in fewer than 1,500 words (mostly because they haven't disappointed us for half a decade yet).

Benne
Sep 2, 2011

STOP DOING HEROIN
I just read that guy's Kenneth Dixon article and it's some real galaxy brain poo poo

"OK so Dixon's been a total fuckup and in the coach's doghouse and might not even make the team ... but what if Alex Collins is bad??? What then, huh???"

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

The article basically says that Patterson was used by Bad Coaches in the past, but that Belichik is a Good Coach who should make a WR run the ball more and create some kind of hybrid offensive weapon. Like fantasy gem Tavon Austin.

It's the kind of article that the writer gets to point to if he's right and nobody remembers if he's wrong. It's more fantasy than football.

If you want a deep sleeper, grab Keelan Cole.
https://www.fantasypros.com/2017/08/very-deep-sleeper-keelan-cole-fantasy-football/

I don't think the guy expects to hit on everyone and knows he's going to miss on a lot. He had previously published takes on Derek Carrier and Luke Willson in this series. I just think there's value to turning over every rock in fantasy.

Benne
Sep 2, 2011

STOP DOING HEROIN

Tiptoes posted:

https://www.fantasypros.com/2017/08/very-deep-sleeper-keelan-cole-fantasy-football/

I don't think the guy expects to hit on everyone and knows he's going to miss on a lot. He had previously published takes on Derek Carrier and Luke Willson in this series. I just think there's value to turning over every rock in fantasy.

There's "turning over every rock" and then there's pulling takes out of your rear end to talk up a first-round bust who has yet to reach 500 receiving yards in five years

"Duuurrrr Belichick will know how to use this guy, because Phillip Dorsett really worked out didn't he"

Spermy Smurf
Jul 2, 2004
To be fair Dorset blows on special teams. Patterson is an excellent gunner and has more return yards than anyone else since he has been in the league.

Still a lovely hot take.

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Tiptoes posted:

https://www.fantasypros.com/2017/08/very-deep-sleeper-keelan-cole-fantasy-football/

I don't think the guy expects to hit on everyone and knows he's going to miss on a lot. He had previously published takes on Derek Carrier and Luke Willson in this series. I just think there's value to turning over every rock in fantasy.

It's absolutely fine to turn over every rock but some rocks just have bugs and dirt underneath them.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Benne posted:

There's "turning over every rock" and then there's pulling takes out of your rear end to talk up a first-round bust who has yet to reach 500 receiving yards in five years

"Duuurrrr Belichick will know how to use this guy, because Phillip Dorsett really worked out didn't he"

quote:

“I don’t know what you’ve been through in the past, but, basically, we get the job done here,” Patterson says Belichick told the wide receiver. “We’re gonna make you the player that you should be.”
I never doubt the Great Dark Lord.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Tiptoes posted:

https://www.fantasypros.com/2017/08/very-deep-sleeper-keelan-cole-fantasy-football/

I don't think the guy expects to hit on everyone and knows he's going to miss on a lot. He had previously published takes on Derek Carrier and Luke Willson in this series. I just think there's value to turning over every rock in fantasy.

Sure, but that article is from 2017. By the time Cole was relevant I can't imagine anyone would have kept him. I suppose articles like that look good in hindsight, or as a way to validate a waiver wire pickup, but it also feels like a fantasy shotgun approach. As I see it sleepers at this point in time are about players you would consider drafting, not players you might see break out at some point during the season and you can snag off the waiver wire. I can't recall anyone predicting that Cole would break out last season, least of all from Week 13 through Week 16. As I see it a sleeper is a player you can draft outside of when people have picked up their starters, when you're filling your bench, but will still perform before you drop him for the waiver wire. So double digits grabs, essentially.

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it
folks,,,
https://twitter.com/JOSH_GORDONXII/status/1021398682619572225
https://twitter.com/JOSH_GORDONXII/status/1021399020399464454
https://twitter.com/GlennMooreCLE/status/1021405006564679681
https://twitter.com/MaryKayCabot/status/1021405504537579520


Edit
https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1021406517763899392
https://twitter.com/Rotoworld_FB/status/1021406486797447169

Spoeank fucked around with this message at 15:48 on Jul 23, 2018

Ben Nevis
Jan 20, 2011
And here I thought this was going to be his year.

corn on the cop
Oct 12, 2012

Break what must be broken, once for all, that's all, and take the suffering on oneself.

― Corey Dostoyevsky
Rule #1 of Fantasy Football:

It is never, under any circumstances, Josh Gordon's year.

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it
we go live to Josh Gordon Twitter

RCarr
Dec 24, 2007

Dude cannot get out of his own way. RIP

pubic works project
Jan 28, 2005

No Decepticon in history, and I say this with great surety, has been treated worse or more unfairly.
NOOOOOOOOO JOSH....!!!!

89
Feb 24, 2006

#worldchamps
I just think it's nice of him to do a few hours before the Fish Bowl draft

Spermy Smurf
Jul 2, 2004
He might be doing it to avoid having cameras stuffed in his face for Hard Knocks.

Could be nothing.

RCarr
Dec 24, 2007

Spermy Smurf posted:

Could be nothing.

I envy your naivety.

Poque
Sep 11, 2003

=^-^=
"League sources told ESPN's Adam Schefter that Gordon is seeking additional counseling before camp opens to deal with his mental health and anxiety. The wide receiver has said that he typically used alcohol or marijuana when he was anxious, something he cannot do without another violation of the NFL's substance abuse policy."

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Poque posted:

"League sources told ESPN's Adam Schefter that Gordon is seeking additional counseling before camp opens to deal with his mental health and anxiety. The wide receiver has said that he typically used alcohol or marijuana when he was anxious, something he cannot do without another violation of the NFL's substance abuse policy."

Good on him if that's the case. This is a big moment and learning to self cope without self medicating could be tough for someone who has spent their entire life doing the latter.

Alfalfa
Apr 24, 2003

Superman Don't Need No Seat Belt

Poque posted:

"League sources told ESPN's Adam Schefter that Gordon is seeking additional counseling before camp opens to deal with his mental health and anxiety. The wide receiver has said that he typically used alcohol or marijuana when he was anxious, something he cannot do without another violation of the NFL's substance abuse policy."

Aka he really bailed to Montreal to party with his boy $$$ Manziel celebrating his trade.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


From: https://deadspin.com/its-remarkably-easy-to-beat-nfl-drug-testing-1695935246

quote:

NFL players are tested for recreational drugs once a year, during a window mandated by the collectively bargained substance-abuse policy. That window opens in the spring (this year, coincidentally, it’s on 4/20) and ends early in the preseason. But largely because of the cost of dispatching drug testers, the vast majority of players are tested during training camp, when they’re all in one place. All a player usually needs to do is make sure he pisses clean by the time he reports to camp, and once he’s tested, he can smoke as much as he wants for the next year.

Gordon needed a quick stint in a place the NFL can't test him (rehab/counseling/whatever) in order to piss clean when he reports to camp. Timeline TBD by whatever drug he's dodging a test for.

Alfalfa
Apr 24, 2003

Superman Don't Need No Seat Belt

pmchem posted:

From: https://deadspin.com/its-remarkably-easy-to-beat-nfl-drug-testing-1695935246


Gordon needed a quick stint in a place the NFL can't test him (rehab/counseling/whatever) in order to piss clean when he reports to camp. Timeline TBD by whatever drug he's dodging a test for.

Don’t think that applies to previous offenders though. They are opened to anytime anyplace I believe.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


Alfalfa posted:

Don’t think that applies to previous offenders though. They are opened to anytime anyplace I believe.

Good point. I guess he really, really needed a place to hide from testers!

Spermy Smurf
Jul 2, 2004
Or people smoke up all day erry day at minicamp and he wanted to avoid it because he is an :angel:

Drunk Nerds
Jan 25, 2011

Just close your eyes
Fun Shoe
Just let motherfucker smoke weed for physical pain. God I hate this country.

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it
https://twitter.com/JackAsspuria/status/875739134899372032

try bulkin up your hands amari

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Amari's biggest problem was winning contested catches, at least according to Matt Harmon on Reception Perception. If that's no longer an issue... :stare:

Chernabog
Apr 16, 2007



I don't think I could bring myself to draft Cooper again.

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pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


Chernabog posted:

I don't think I could bring myself to draft Cooper again.

I saw that picture and all the hype in 2017 and drafted him then.

Maybe at a discount in 2018. But man, 2017 was painful.

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