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The single best thing that the TXDP could do right now is figure out some way to convince everyone in Texas that they've actually got a plan and that it's worth bothering to vote. Fighting for every seat and getting candidates that are actually exciting to people would be a big step forward for that, but I think the biggest impediment right now is just that people who would vote democrat in elections look around them and feel like they're alone, and the party can't find it's rear end with both hands and a map, so there's no point in bothering. If we could just get people over that hump, I think you'd see enthusiasm pick up pretty quickly and we might even be able to start building up momentum for the "Texas turned blue" moment they want so bad.
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Jul 24, 2018 23:54
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https://twitter.com/JoeyCarreraKVIA/status/1021890487169503237 https://github.com/online-pol-ads/FBPoliticalAds/blob/master/docs/Facebooks-archive.pdf BrutalistMcDonalds fucked around with this message at 00:00 on Jul 25, 2018 |
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Jul 24, 2018 23:57
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I think they're in a fairly good place despite themselves though. We're not going blue proper but 07 is, if not going to flip properly, going to be a hilariously close fight because Culberson genuinely seems to not give a poo poo and Lizzie is a charismatic white woman with the federal DNC liking her so much they ratfucked her only real rival with a better platform, Beto being a fairly popular guy against a literal slime monster, and other areas have some good races too. People are going to be interested in what's happening regardless of what actually shakes out on election day and that can be exploited to build support.
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Jul 24, 2018 23:59
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Keeshhound posted:The single best thing that the TXDP could do right now is figure out some way to convince everyone in Texas that they've actually got a plan and that it's worth bothering to vote. Fighting for every seat and getting candidates that are actually exciting to people would be a big step forward for that, but I think the biggest impediment right now is just that people who would vote democrat in elections look around them and feel like they're alone, and the party can't find it's rear end with both hands and a map, so there's no point in bothering. If we could just get people over that hump, I think you'd see enthusiasm pick up pretty quickly and we might even be able to start building up momentum for the "Texas turned blue" moment they want so bad. sexpig by night posted:Focus on local power structures rather than trying to get the brass ring and assuming power will flow down Zil posted:Focus on local elections and not just governor. Y'all say this but the thing is this year the slate for Democrats is the opposite (except for Beto). There are lots of good local candidates and the statewide ones are mostly awful. I think they're running more legislative candidates this year than in a long, long time.
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Jul 25, 2018 00:10
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There are a lot of good state representative and state senate candidates that simply aren't getting a lot of press or are up against a tough opponent. It doesn't help that the party obsesses over US-23 and a couple of other congressional races. A couple off the top of my head are: James Talarico Steven Kling John Bucy So yes, there are a bunch of exciting candidates but keep in mind: 1. Texas is a huge state, and resources are limited. As a facet of this, time and money are limited, so you may not see resources flow into certain districts. 2. Texas Republicans are not going to vote for a moderate simply because they're a moderate. They are going to vote Republican unless a candidate shows up at their door asking for their vote. 3. There has been no investment in grassroots infrastructure in these districts. Groups like Battleground Texas never came through with actual organizing, and are rife with failure. A lot of elected officials feel no dedication from the party, because they had to pull themselves into their seat without that infrastructure available. 4. Politics is based on networks entirely. Who are you gonna give your statewide's funds to, the first time candidate running in Midland who may not even have a campaign manager, or the the guy trying to flip a seat in the Dallas city and suburbs, who has folks working for him that you know personally? 5. These networks are filled with awful old people who like to fight each other. In my opinion, the only way to flip this state is to get enough grass roots to the point where the Texas Legislature is able to commit to electoral reform, and then boosting turnout to the point where you can attract decent statewide candidates. Then you avoid things like Julian Castro skipping Texas entirely and trying to run for president. TropicalCoke fucked around with this message at 00:29 on Jul 25, 2018 |
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Jul 25, 2018 00:23
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I know this is somewhat a petty and small thing but whoever is managing the TDP Instagram needs to fuckin' step up their game. Their posting is weak as poo poo and embarrassing.
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Jul 25, 2018 00:52
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Badger of Basra posted:Y'all say this but the thing is this year the slate for Democrats is the opposite (except for Beto). There are lots of good local candidates and the statewide ones are mostly awful. I think they're running more legislative candidates this year than in a long, long time. I agree? I think that should be a much more public focus though, there should be TONS of TDP voter registration drives, like, weekly, all over the state. They should be pimping out their people every chance they can. I completely agree our slate this year IS quite good, but we're letting "Patrick refuses to debate, lol chicken" be the focus rather than 'gently caress Patrick if you build up this base we can fight that idiot even if he keeps his seat'.
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Jul 25, 2018 01:05
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Just to be clear because I think I'm not. I don't think the TDP is garbo and needs to be carved out with machetes. I think it's mainly an issue of leaders and local activists both wanting good things but the leaders possibly losing the forest for the trees. I think, as far as red state dem parties go, we actually have a solid one.
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Jul 25, 2018 01:06
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Right. To an extent I can't blame them too much, because it is tough being a blue staffer in this state. There's only so much you can do, and in an organization like a political party, there is a distinct hierarchy and not much deviation from marching orders allowed. And a lot of the good ones leave as soon as possible. It does feel like Beto has a better shot of building something than we've had in a while.
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Jul 25, 2018 01:10
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i mean its generally the case everywhere in the country that the dem leadership arent interested in it being a political party so much as an old boys club
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Jul 25, 2018 01:18
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https://twitter.com/KVUE/status/1022083186912837635 uh
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Jul 25, 2018 14:12
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sounds like animal hoarding tbh
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Jul 25, 2018 16:28
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There's a reason why animal cops was based out of Houston.
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Jul 25, 2018 16:29
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Anyone have links/ contact information for any organizations doing voter registration and out reach in Texas, specifically the Austin/central Texas area?
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Jul 25, 2018 17:25
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League of Women Voters is always doing non-partisan voter registration and engagement. I worked for them in college organizing and directing voter engagement and registration in college and got several thousands of people registered. They run pretty lean, so just showing up and being willing to do something will get you far.
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Jul 25, 2018 20:37
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Dameius posted:League of Women Voters is always doing non-partisan voter registration and engagement. I worked for them in college organizing and directing voter engagement and registration in college and got several thousands of people registered. They run pretty lean, so just showing up and being willing to do something will get you far. Seconding. I am in LWV Austin area and we are always recruiting for different events. We have voter deputy registrar sign-ups for events though, but if you get on the mailing list it's easy to sign-up. Right now LWV Austin and the Tax Office are trying to get people to do door-to-door outreach (with a coordinated system they have), and their next training is August 4th. https://www.signupgenius.com/go/5080944a9ad2da4f49-doortodoor1 Indivisible Texas and JOLT Texas (Focused on Latino voters) also do voter registration events. You do have to be a voter deputy registrar for the county of the person you're registering, but getting into a class or testing out is easy. Feel free to PM me for more information.
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Jul 26, 2018 05:51
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https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1022466953288593409 Good ad.
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Jul 26, 2018 15:00
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That is a really good ad.
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Jul 26, 2018 15:14
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Cant wait for Cruz's ad where an ominous voice warns that "Beto voted to kill babies at 24 weeks old" and "is too liberal for Texas"
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Jul 26, 2018 15:20
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https://www.mystatesman.com/news/st...dMQJuSS0EG2S6N/ One of the most promising things I've seen this cycle to give me some hope that Beto can actually win this thing. It's also hilarious that Cruz has "challenged" Beto to debates when he's been dodging them for a while now. The idea that he's "challenging" rather than accepting a challenge indicates just how shook his campaign is. Incumbents don't debate challengers who don't pose a real electoral threat. They have have nothing to gain and everything to lose so if Cruz is "challenging" Beto to a debate he must have some scary arsed internal poling.
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Jul 26, 2018 21:05
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when surveyed voters were informed of ted cruz's past and current status of being ted cruz, support declined precipitously
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Jul 26, 2018 21:17
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if beto wins dems are gonna take him and doug jones as 100% validation that after twenty years of being obliterated at every level, running as "not the republican" is the winning strategy
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Jul 26, 2018 21:24
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 I mean, not exactly centrist
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Jul 26, 2018 21:25
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zoux posted:
weren't people just saying itt he abandoned that position as soon as he won the primary? i dont live in texas anymore so all my knowledge of the campaigning is secondhand
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Jul 26, 2018 21:30
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Shear Modulus posted:weren't people just saying itt he abandoned that position as soon as he won the primary? "On the Senate side, Democrat Beto O'Rourke, who handily won his March primary, will face Sen. Ted Cruz. Cruz built his reputation on shutting down down the government in a failed bid to stop Obamacare in 2013. O'Rourke says he supports strengthening the Affordable Care Act now but starting on a path to an eventual single-payer health system." Maybe people disagree with that approach but it's hardly Pelosi's "Single payer will never happen"
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Jul 26, 2018 21:32
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i guess hes straddling the line, but "strengthen obamacare" has 100% become the new codeword for "single payer never" among the right wing of the dems as an aside, obamacare is going to be an albatross around the dems' neck for the forseeable future, since the total lack of cost controls further exacerbated by republicans killing the mandate and trump killing subsidies are going to make the 20-something% y/y premium increases the (lower end of) the new normal, and the convenient announcement of the rate increases at the start of open enrollment is baking in a guaranteed October Surprise for dems every year. purely on a practical level if the dems dont want to lose 5+ percentage points in the last week before election day every year they should be open to scrapping obamacare for something that doesnt say "obamacare make your health insurance go up 20%" ASAP
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Jul 26, 2018 21:51
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Yea he needs to sack up and go, at least, full medicare-for-all again. Obamacare is bad and while I don't think he's using it that way it has become code for the HRC dead ender 'single payer will never ever happen' crowd. Stop trying to have it both ways and just go single payer. But yea comparing him to Jones is pretty dumb. Jones is functionally just a very very very mildly socially liberal republican, Beto actually does at the very least have a normal national dem platform. Also, good ad, I guess they're going hard in the 'young charismatic tall cute guy is basically Texas' Kennedy' route for his branding. Not a bad idea.
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Jul 26, 2018 22:06
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Especially vs. an oily fish monster. I still think it's a long shot but I can't fault Beto for not putting in the work. He's run the best campaign by a D in Texas that I can recall.
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Jul 26, 2018 22:21
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The part where he says "Dallas" was clearly filmed in Fort Worth  sexpig by night posted:Also, good ad, I guess they're going hard in the 'young charismatic tall cute guy is basically Texas' Kennedy' route for his branding. Not a bad idea. BrutalistMcDonalds fucked around with this message at 22:32 on Jul 26, 2018 |
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Jul 26, 2018 22:30
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zoux posted:Especially vs. an oily fish monster. yea his first ad literally being 'no guys I actually DO want to win this unlike most other national level D's here' is a really good tone to set. I'm not gonna start shopping for victory wine yet but it's at least good enough to make Ted sweat.
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Jul 26, 2018 22:43
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Shear Modulus posted:as an aside, obamacare is going to be an albatross around the dems' neck for the forseeable future, since the total lack of cost controls further exacerbated by republicans killing the mandate and trump killing subsidies are going to make the 20-something% y/y premium increases the (lower end of) the new normal, and the convenient announcement of the rate increases at the start of open enrollment is baking in a guaranteed October Surprise for dems every year. purely on a practical level if the dems dont want to lose 5+ percentage points in the last week before election day every year they should be open to scrapping obamacare for something that doesnt say "obamacare make your health insurance go up 20%" ASAP An albatross around the...Democrats? 
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Jul 26, 2018 23:42
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VitalSigns posted:An albatross around the...Democrats? Would love to go into that 46% of R's houses (and the 10% of D's wtf) and just gently caress everything up, rip out plumbing, remove walls and punch holes in the roof. "Well you were the ones that bought/built this house originally so this is your fault really"
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Jul 27, 2018 00:00
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No Safe Word posted:Would love to go into that 46% of R's houses (and the 10% of D's wtf) and just gently caress everything up, rip out plumbing, remove walls and punch holes in the roof. "Well you were the ones that bought/built this house originally so this is your fault really" I'm actually shocked that it's only 46%. You can't even get a majority of your own voters to blame their problems on someone else? And a black guy at that? Uh-oh... VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 01:11 on Jul 27, 2018 |
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Jul 27, 2018 00:08
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Huh, I would have thought that the Republicans would have been able to successfully blame the democrats or the concept of government programs in general for all the problems with the latest government program they sabotaged, like they'd been doing successfully for the past several decades. My opinion has been that the huge rate increases near end of October and beginning of November in 2016 were one of the more underreported factors to Hillary falling apart in the home stretch. Of course it is impossible to disentangle from the comey memo that happened at the same time, but unlike the comey memo the Obamacare rate spikes were invisble to the media class who has never had to deal with that.
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Jul 27, 2018 00:14
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I get the feeling that post Helsinki the soft attached Republicans are starting flake off the Pro-Trump train. Not that they will suddenly start voting Dem, or anything like in the DCCC's wild fever dreams, but just that they'll become disaffected, discouraged, non-participating voters. Or to put it in Prester Jane terms, Helsinki acted as a catalyst for a rapid, party wide, compaction cycle.
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Jul 27, 2018 00:34
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Shear Modulus posted:Huh, I would have thought that the Republicans would have been able to successfully blame the democrats or the concept of government programs in general for all the problems with the latest government program they sabotaged, like they'd been doing successfully for the past several decades. That's their usual line, but Trump didn't run on that (and the Republicans who did run on taking away your health care and also Medicare all got annihilated). Trump ran on "I've got a big beautiful health care plan to give you everything you want, it's a secret, but you know it's the best because I'm the best at business". It's darkly amusing that 30 years of Republicans telling their voters that government doesn't work because politicians are stupid and businessmen are the best at everything finally resulted in voters drawing the logical conclusion: instead of rejecting government altogether they said "ok we'll just elect a businessman to make government work"
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Jul 27, 2018 01:10
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Just got canvassed by text by the Beto campaign, first time I've ever been contacted by a D candidate for office. In the last couple of weeks, a lot of the handicappers have been moving safe R seats to lean or likely, GOP is having to contest races everywhere and their summer fundraising was reportedly disastrous. A lot of right leaning pollsters skeptical of the blue wave scenario have started to allow that perhaps even the Senate is in play for Democrats. I don't know how impactful Helsinki was, I don't know if this 12 billion bailout will mollify GOP voters in the midwest, it'll take a week or so for those to start to move the polls.
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Jul 27, 2018 01:10
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Dameius posted:I get the feeling that post Helsinki the soft attached Republicans are starting flake off the Pro-Trump train. Not that they will suddenly start voting Dem, or anything like in the DCCC's wild fever dreams, but just that they'll become disaffected, discouraged, non-participating voters. Well everyone also all thought this was happening before the election and that Trump being an insane rapist would make republicand stay home in november 2016 and that didn't happen at all. I also haven't seen anything in the past month or so saying that trump isnt still getting 85+% approvals among republicans.
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Jul 27, 2018 01:22
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nothing matters unless the stock market starts dropping
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Jul 27, 2018 01:32
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R's do not want to have the government get bigger / watch their taxes rise. They have been inculcated that Democrats would do this (which they would). Any question that they would vote based on their conscience was utterly destroyed in November 2016.
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Jul 27, 2018 01:33
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