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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:ADP for Collins in half PPR is around 4.01 according to FFC. The 5 in front of him are Gordon, Diggs, Guice, Rodgers, and Fitzgerald. After him are Cooper, Ertz, Ajay, Penny, and D. Thomas. In HPPR, I'd take him over Rodgers (too early for a QB), maybe Josh Gordon, certainly Ajayi, Penny, and DT. Cooper and Ertz are dice rolls for me. PFF is... interesting. They are using video to make their determinations. They grade every play, and have two analysts grade each play, and then a third compares the two and resolves differences. Their grading system is also something they made in collaboration with NFL coaches, so there should be some meat to it, and it's adjusted based on play situation (e.g. where the player lines up). And then season grades are created based on individual game grades, but not as a simple average -- recognizing that consistently performing well is harder than doing so rarely, etc. I *believe* the receiving grade includes pass blocking, so the logic could be that he is a bad pass blocker (or that 23 receptions on 36 targets as a RB is not great, given the expected difficulty of catching those? CMC sits at around a 70% reception rate while Collins was around 62%). In 2016, Vic Beasley lead the league in sacks but was the 31st rated EDGE defender, largely because of how they evaluated the quality of those sacks, and that it was more like 15-20th in pressures/etc. They claim to rate based on the performance, not the production -- an incomplete that the defense should have intercepted counts as much against the QB as an interception. That doesn't mean that players can't improve (or regress), but the focus is on how they performed. If they performed well, but weren't lucky, they should have a better score than someone who performed poorly and was lucky, regardless of yards/TDs/etc. Trying to use Harris' rankings for a comparison is a bit hard -- there's no real NFL tape on Dixon as a lead back. He was the COP back in a timeshare last we saw. How then do you compare his tape, realistically, to Collins? If the goal is to use tape to try to evaluate the two of them. Alternatively, Harris' FF rankings has Collins as BAL's top RB, but as RB33. How does that make sense? Even a poor player will put up points with volume. Like I said, Bal supported 2x RB2s last season in spite of a dreadful passing game.... why would you assume the guy you have as the top back there is RB33? That doesn't make sense unless you assume that all 3 backs are getting less than 30% of the volume, but you can't be assuming that if the next BAL back is RB50-some...
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Aug 5, 2018 21:46
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This all originated from a question of who to keep between Robinson and Collins. Spoeank made the argument that Collins usage was "locked in", and I countered that folks like Chris Harris seem to think that might not be a sure thing based on their film study and perceptions of Collins' talent. I still argue that Robinson is a better keeper. Not only is the long term potential better (Collins was only put on a one year contract), but they're all pretty close in terms of keeper value. Actually if you go by raw ADP Gordon is the highest value. I might keep Gordon on upside.
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Aug 5, 2018 21:47
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:This all originated from a question of who to keep between Robinson and Collins. Spoeank made the argument that Collins usage was "locked in", and I countered that folks like Chris Harris seem to think that might not be a sure thing based on their film study and perceptions of Collins' talent. I still argue that Robinson is a better keeper. Not only is the long term potential better (Collins was only put on a one year contract), but they're all pretty close in terms of keeper value. Actually if you go by raw ADP Gordon is the highest value. I might keep Gordon on upside. I get that, and I agree with Spoeank. Robinson is on a new team, with a new OC, a (sophmore) QB with a lower completion % than Bortles last season, pretty much the same overall, that wasn't allowed to go downfield last season, is one of 3 new targets (Burton, Arob, Miller), has a great line with a good bruising RB, and wants to put the ball in the hands of their scatback more often. The situation doesn't scream desirable to me. His last (only) 1k+ yard season is 2015, he's never caught over 60% of his targets in a season, and his catch rate has declined every year (59->53->49). Note -- this means that Bortles was less accurate throwing to arob than he was on average. On the other hand, scarcity makes RBs likely to get a 50%+ share -- which Collins is -- more desirable. Gordon for upside is an option, certainly.
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Aug 5, 2018 21:56
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89 posted:We are all gonna be self quoting our posts in 2-3 months about how wrong we were about everything, as usual, as we trot out Alfred Blue as our RB1 again. Absolutely. Somehow, behind that line, he'll become the highest graded player in PFF history. Zauper posted:In HPPR, I'd take him over Rodgers (too early for a QB), maybe Josh Gordon, certainly Ajayi, Penny, and DT. Cooper and Ertz are dice rolls for me. Harris isn't making the argument that you should compare the tape of Dixon to Collins. He's making the argument that the tape he saw of Collins lead Harris to view Collins as a below average player. He's not comparing Collins to Dixon, he's comparing Collins to the rest of the RBs he's evaluated. And based on his evaluation Collins is barely flex-worthy. He fully acknowledges that Collins could have a top-20 season and make Harris look foolish, but he's drafting as if that's not going to happen. The reason Dixon is even listed is because last year Harris compared him to Kareem Hunt. Is someone going to get points in Baltimore? Sure. But this time last year we were making the argument that it was Terrance West being who was being drafted in the 8th (FFC PPR drafts).
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Aug 5, 2018 22:09
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Zauper posted:I get that, and I agree with Spoeank. Robinson is on a new team, with a new OC, a (sophmore) QB with a lower completion % than Bortles last season, pretty much the same overall, that wasn't allowed to go downfield last season, is one of 3 new targets (Burton, Arob, Miller), has a great line with a good bruising RB, and wants to put the ball in the hands of their scatback more often. The situation doesn't scream desirable to me. His last (only) 1k+ yard season is 2015, he's never caught over 60% of his targets in a season, and his catch rate has declined every year (59->53->49). Note -- this means that Bortles was less accurate throwing to arob than he was on average. On the other hand, scarcity makes RBs likely to get a 50%+ share -- which Collins is -- more desirable. I agree that there's a risk in Robinson. I'd probably go Gordon since I'm high on Cleveland's offense this year (oh God). I just think that people are assuming a surety in Collin's role that isn't necessarily there when you consider how he's been treated (dropped by Seattle, only a one year deal in Baltimore) and film evaluation from folks like Harris. On the other hand Warren Sharpe is super high on Collins, arguing that Baltimore is facing a more run-friendly slate of opponents in 2018 and that as RB20 (based on ADP when the book was published) he's being drafted too low. Sharpe also argues that Collins had a very high run success rate, ranked 4th behind Elliott, Lewis, and Gurley. gently caress. I might have talked myself into Collins.
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Aug 5, 2018 22:18
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In unrelated news, has anyone else read Joe Pisapia's Fantasy Black Book? I got it on a lark this year for some beach reading and so far I'm underwhelmed.
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Aug 5, 2018 22:19
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Harris isn't making the argument that you should compare the tape of Dixon to Collins. He's making the argument that the tape he saw of Collins lead Harris to view Collins as a below average player. He's not comparing Collins to Dixon, he's comparing Collins to the rest of the RBs he's evaluated. And based on his evaluation Collins is barely flex-worthy. He fully acknowledges that Collins could have a top-20 season and make Harris look foolish, but he's drafting as if that's not going to happen. The reason Dixon is even listed is because last year Harris compared him to Kareem Hunt. Right, he's making the argument that based on his eyes, there is no RB in Baltimore that will perform in the top 32 for RBs. That's literally what his fantasy rankings mean - he thinks the top RB in BAL will be a mid RB3. That doesn't make any sense, and logic says Collins is getting enough volume to be a RB2, minimum. West also didn't lose the job, he got injured. Unless you're talking about our TE Reed, injuries can't be predicted. It's also a demonstration of part of why the eye test is flawed. PFF looks at every play with multiple people and thinks Collins was the best RB at running the ball. Harris looks at [some number of plays] and thinks he was the 33rd best. Sharpe looks at [some number] and thinks Collins had the 4th highest success rate. Go with your guy. e: for clarity, I think there was a lot of uncertainty around Collins' role heading into the draft. When Baltimore didn't draft a RB, that signaled they were happy with Collins as their lead back to me. Yes, there's opportunity for Dixon to take it from him. It's not like he's as locked in as guys like Bell, Zeke, etc -- but if he were, he wouldn't be a 4th rounder. Zauper fucked around with this message at 22:26 on Aug 5, 2018 |
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Aug 5, 2018 22:22
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Zauper posted:Right, he's making the argument that based on his eyes, there is no RB in Baltimore that will perform in the top 32 for RBs. That's literally what his fantasy rankings mean - he thinks the top RB in BAL will be a mid RB3. That doesn't make any sense, and logic says Collins is getting enough volume to be a RB2, minimum. West also didn't lose the job, he got injured. Unless you're talking about our TE Reed, injuries can't be predicted. I don't agree that he's making that argument. He's not saying that the top RB in Baltimore will be a mid RB3. He's saying that he doesn't think Collins is talented and that there are 32 RBs he likes more. If you listen to the podcast they talk a lot about how arguments based on potential workload ("logic says" as you put it) are nearly impossible to get right and that instead it's better to focus on talent evaluation via film. Now the fact that PFF and Warren Sharpe are presumably watching the same film and seeing something different tells me there's an interesting discrepancy there. I shot Harris an e-mail; maybe he'll answer it on his podcast. If Baltimore was happy enough with Collins to not draft a RB, why did they only sign him to a one year deal?
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Aug 5, 2018 22:44
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:In unrelated news, has anyone else read Joe Pisapia's Fantasy Black Book? I got it on a lark this year for some beach reading and so far I'm underwhelmed. I haven't but I have mutual friends with him and we've interacted on facebook. I speaks in generalities and you get the feeling he made his opinion first then backfilled his reasons why. I'm not surprised the book is underwhelming. I fell rear end backwards into RPV and didn't build a whole following around it. He seems like an elder statesman who has a seat at the table but there are at least 25 guys I'd rather listen to analysis from, off the top of my head.
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Aug 5, 2018 22:55
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:I don't agree that he's making that argument. He's not saying that the top RB in Baltimore will be a mid RB3. He's saying that he doesn't think Collins is talented and that there are 32 RBs he likes more. If you listen to the podcast they talk a lot about how arguments based on potential workload ("logic says" as you put it) are nearly impossible to get right and that instead it's better to focus on talent evaluation via film. Now the fact that PFF and Warren Sharpe are presumably watching the same film and seeing something different tells me there's an interesting discrepancy there. I shot Harris an e-mail; maybe he'll answer it on his podcast. Because they're willing to evaluate him as the lead back and decide if they need one in the '18 offseason? Seems pretty reasonable. I'm not sure how to read a list of fantasy football ranks other than 'I expect these guys to outperform these other ones' https://www.harrisfootball.com/rbranks. Looking at this, it seems to me that he expects Crowell or Mack to outperform Collins, both of which I'm hugely skeptical of. I don't know if they're better players -- maybe? -- but I think they have far less clear paths to value. If you're ranking players for fantasy football, why would you rank them on anything other than expected fantasy value? Shouldn't it just be 'ranks' if it's not intended for use in FF? Like, that just seems silly to me. If you ignore workload in your evaluations, you are leaving a huge -- and arguably the most important -- factor off the table for evaluating value. And that seems crazy to me. I'm pretty sure volume is the single stat most correlated with production, unsurprisingly. Why would you then avoid projecting volume, or factoring for it when looking at value? Ravens bloggers all pretty consistently think Collins is locked in as the lead back, and it's certainly his role to lose. Sure, you're not going to get it exactly right for anyone, but it's so important.. Potentially worth mentioning that he also has Arob ranked as his WR23. Gordon is WR25. If you accept his rankings, I'd probably rather have RB33 (with RB1 upside) than WR23 (with WR1 upside) anyway. But I have to assume that Gordon is WR25, or Reed in TE9, or etc... based on factors around things other than pure skill. So it seems off. But we're way off topic, so I'll stop here.
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Aug 5, 2018 23:09
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So, my league is moving to expanding our IDP and adding an offensive flex position. Used to, you could kinda work the wire for defense and be fine. But, now I'm worried about positional scarcity. Was 2LB, 1DB, 1DL. Now it's 3LB, 2DL, 2DB It's a 10 man league. Here's the scoring system: http://imgur.com/gallery/6CtS4RI Should I add priority to any position you normally wouldn't? I guess with 3 WRs, I need to have great starters. But, since we have so much scoring on sacks and tackles for loss (cause the way the NFL considers some sacks both), do I need to load up on elite DL?
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Aug 5, 2018 23:23
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Blountes and Fortes has one team available for our dynasty league. You will be one of two of the teams listed below. Team one Team two Team one has the first pick. Team two has the fourth pick. You and our other new owner will see if you can agree on which team you are happy with. Both teams have strong building pieces. Rosters will need to be trimmed to 16 players. Please check out the thread if you are interested. Blountes and Fortes
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Aug 5, 2018 23:34
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I'm probably going to go Collins because RB's are so desirable in our league, if he has even a decent first few weeks, I could move him for something way more than Arob. Flip that and no chance. I'm one of the few who has the ability to keep 2 RB1's since you can have a keeper from 1-3 rounds (ADP as of today) and then another keeper from rounds 4+. Then you give up that round pick. Bell is my other RB
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Aug 5, 2018 23:38
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Alfalfa posted:I'm probably going to go Collins because RB's are so desirable in our league, if he has even a decent first few weeks, I could move him for something way more than Arob. That's probably the best argument for it.
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Aug 5, 2018 23:47
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Spoeank posted:I haven't but I have mutual friends with him and we've interacted on facebook. I speaks in generalities and you get the feeling he made his opinion first then backfilled his reasons why. I'm not surprised the book is underwhelming. I fell rear end backwards into RPV and didn't build a whole following around it. What gets me about RPV is that the Black Book markets it as something fairly simple (the difference between a player's score and the average for that player's position divided by the average), yet the "actual" RPV formula is full of secret sauce that incorporates stuff he doesn't talk about. Then on top of that the individual blurbs don't really have much content to them. It's honestly less content than a magazine, and I'm not really sure what about it is worth the purchase price. At least the Harris Almanac has some in-depth analysis and some funny moments. My favorite is that he declares Leonard Fournette to be the most overvalued RB... and then ranks him the RB6.
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Aug 5, 2018 23:53
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Zauper posted:Because they're willing to evaluate him as the lead back and decide if they need one in the '18 offseason? Seems pretty reasonable. We haven't had a lot of in-depth conversations in this thread so I appreciate the discussion. No reason to stop; the topic is fantasy football and I'm all for discussing it. It's inconsistent to state that the Ravens like him enough not to draft any RB talent, yet don't like him enough to offer him anything other than a one year contract while they evaluate him. That's actually a perfectly good example of the kind of thing that Harris is arguing against in his book. In general we suck at predicting workload, particularly for RBs. Look at last year's ADP (FFC PPR). Jay Ajayi and DeMarco Murray were last first round picks. Isaiah Crowell was a third rounder. Of the 25 RBs drafted in the first 5 rounds 6 are on a different team or retired. Bilal Powell (5.01) was a sure thing in NY, Rob Kelley (6.07) the lead in Washington. Paul Perkins (7.11) was projected to be the lead back in NY. He started four times. Harris argues that rather than try to project workload outside of the obvious bellcow situations, we should focus on drafting talented players who will capture the workload through their efforts. Now what's interesting with Collins is that you have multiple parties with wildly different evaluations. PFF loves him. Warren Sharpe is a big fan. Yet Harris has him basically undraftable outside of a flex spot. That's interesting enough to make me question things and wonder what's going on. Is workload important? Hell yeah. For RBs it's by far the most important factor, and that's one of the reasons people have rookie RBs drafted higher than anywhere else. There's a trend of teams drafting RBs early and then using them. Something like 80% of rookie RBs drafted in the first round end up as RB1s. It's also why you have four bellcows going as the first four players off the board, and a fifth projected bellcow going right after them. But the sample size of the NFL and the massive amount of variability each year makes it extremely difficult to have any idea of what's going on in most backfields. Historically talent demands carries, so Harris argues evaluate the talent and draft good players. Is it the best way to do things? Who knows. I probably sound like such a fanboy. Honestly I just enjoy his podcast and think the almanac is worth buying. I didn't mean to come off as a Harris truther.
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Aug 6, 2018 00:17
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It's perfectly fine to be skeptical of Collins, he's really not a special talent on paper and this wouldn't be the first time people fell for a Ravens RB coming off a fluky career year (hello Justin Forsett). The problem is we're all assuming Kenneth Dixon -- a guy who's shown next-to-nothing in the pros, has been in the coach's doghouse for a while, and is probably closer to getting cut than making a meaningful impact -- is the next man up, which is crazy to me.
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Aug 6, 2018 00:44
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I’m skeptical of Collins and this keeper decision could blow up in my face if he fumbles, Dixon flashes, and Buck is there as well. I’m just less skeptical of Collins and his situation than ARob and his competition for targets and scheme.
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Aug 6, 2018 00:51
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:We haven't had a lot of in-depth conversations in this thread so I appreciate the discussion. No reason to stop; the topic is fantasy football and I'm all for discussing it. quote:That's actually a perfectly good example of the kind of thing that Harris is arguing against in his book. In general we suck at predicting workload, particularly for RBs. Look at last year's ADP (FFC PPR). Jay Ajayi and DeMarco Murray were last first round picks. quote:Isaiah Crowell was a third rounder. Of the 25 RBs drafted in the first 5 rounds 6 are on a different team or retired. Bilal Powell (5.01) was a sure thing in NY, Rob Kelley (6.07) the lead in Washington. Paul Perkins (7.11) was projected to be the lead back in NY. quote:Harris argues that rather than try to project workload outside of the obvious bellcow situations, we should focus on drafting talented players who will capture the workload through their efforts. Now what's interesting with Collins is that you have multiple parties with wildly different evaluations. PFF loves him. Warren Sharpe is a big fan. Yet Harris has him basically undraftable outside of a flex spot. That's interesting enough to make me question things and wonder what's going on. Here's the thing; all the players you called out as examples wound up with majority timeshares. The issue is that they didn't go a great job of producing in that limited timeshare. The difference is that Collins was in a limited timeshare last season - what did I say, ~45%ish - and produced like an RB2. As long as you assume his volume and performance stays the same year over year, you should expect him to be a mid RB2. He has the potential for significant upside if his timeshare grows, though. Ravens bloggers are speculating that Dixon, currently injured, might be getting cut for UDFAs. Collins solidly outperformed Buck last year. After that, I guess there are the UDFA RBs... but it really does seem like, absent injury, Collins is a shoe-in for volume. Zauper fucked around with this message at 01:06 on Aug 6, 2018 |
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Aug 6, 2018 00:58
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I'm just here to add that Dixon was supposed to win out due to superior talent since he's been in the league and has burned me everytime i've fallen for that scam. Don't be like me If you think he'll be worth a diddly, he's probably going undrafted and you can just grab him then as insurance. VietCampo fucked around with this message at 01:02 on Aug 6, 2018 |
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Aug 6, 2018 00:58
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Congrats to Corey Coleman for somehow getting a QB downgrade from the Browns
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Aug 6, 2018 02:46
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Benne posted:Congrats to Corey Coleman for somehow getting a QB downgrade from the Browns Imagine being stuck with what the Browns had for the last 2 years and then once that started to look promising, you get traded to the 2018 Bills.
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Aug 6, 2018 02:55
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Confidence in Gordon tho?
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Aug 6, 2018 04:02
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Question regarding using MFL for a live draft. If you have a hard salary cap, will it prevent owners from drafting a player that puts them over the cap? Is it possible to skip over a draft pick, or will it force the owner to auto draft someone?
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Aug 6, 2018 14:36
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Man, third year playing and I'm having some issue figuring out who I want as a keeper in my PPR league. McCoy is very much up in the air in regard to if he will be effective this year(as well as the possible suspension), J. Garapolo(qb) L. McCoy(RB) M. Ingram(RB, sspd) J. Crowder(wr) A. Theilen(wr) J. Doyle(te) M. Lynch(RB) T. Hill(wr) M. Gillislee(RB) C. Wentz(qb) My options are feeling a bit anemic. What do you guys suggest. Part of me is just thinking of just holding onto Wentz just in case he has fully recovered.
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Aug 6, 2018 15:12
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What is the penalty for keeping someone, if there is one? Thielen is probably your best option.
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Aug 6, 2018 15:18
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No penalty.
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Aug 6, 2018 15:30
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I'd keep Thielen. Hill or McCoy are possibilities, if you are higher on either of them than most.
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Aug 6, 2018 15:40
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I’m keeping Thielen in PPR league
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Aug 6, 2018 16:10
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This is the latest you'll ever be able to draft Shady But...best case scenario, he makes a magestic 60 yards a game cause of stacked boxes, 6 TDs. And he finally stays down after his freak injuries he always comes back for in the 3rd quarter.
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Aug 6, 2018 16:22
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So I'm doing a dynasty start up for my office. What sites that are not MFL are good for dynasty?
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Aug 6, 2018 17:09
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There was a thread on reddit about Sleeperbot having Dynasty built in to their leagues now. Taxi squads and stuff too. I dunno, never used it.
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Aug 6, 2018 17:34
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Sataere posted:So I'm doing a dynasty start up for my office. What sites that are not MFL are good for dynasty? fleaflicker is great if you want to create an office-wide malware infestation. Sleeperbot supposedly made dyno leagues now? e: re above -- not sure if they have taxi squads or not. their scoring customization options are fairly minimal, no IDP, and something else but forget what. Fin, more or less.
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Aug 6, 2018 17:35
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Sataere posted:So I'm doing a dynasty start up for my office. What sites that are not MFL are good for dynasty? Unfortunatelty, MFL is the best.
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Aug 6, 2018 17:36
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Benne posted:Congrats to Corey Coleman for somehow getting a QB downgrade from the Browns Sweet, that's good news actually! Coleman was going to get like 10 targets in Cleveland. Legit happy about it as someone that owns him in way too many dynasty leagues.
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Aug 6, 2018 17:44
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https://twitter.com/ByNateTaylor/status/1026493090880778241 Same as it ever was
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Aug 6, 2018 19:40
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Spoeank posted:https://twitter.com/ByNateTaylor/status/1026493090880778241 What is dead may never die.
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Aug 6, 2018 20:25
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Hip issue is what he had rookie or 2nd year, right? Had surgery and all?
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Aug 6, 2018 20:49
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despite being a (suffering ) Browns homer, with the Coleman trade, your Browns late round sleeper is Antonio Calloway. *its in writing now, you know its truth.
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Aug 7, 2018 17:18
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CoolHandMat posted:despite being a (suffering ) Browns homer, with the Coleman trade, your Browns late round sleeper is Antonio Calloway. Draft Profile posted:However, his character concerns are at a point where they could derail any opportunity for a career. Yup, that's a browns wide receiver.
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Aug 7, 2018 17:21
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