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Penny stock ARYC about to announce their government contracts. Will go up 1,000% in the next year Enjoy (might go down instead though)
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Aug 10, 2018 18:36
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Rastor posted:I understand the hate for market timing but this is literally the timing/gambling thread Is it? Back in the day this thread's OP had a disclaimer of "don't invest in penny stocks you idiots, we will all mock you if you start talking about it". Somewhere between then and now, this place has become the "penny stock gambling thread" and I don't know why. People here constantly push newcomers into the long term investment thread because for an ignorant person looking for a long term return in their savings, that is the best (and least risky) way to achieve it. However that does not mean every other investment path or "stock trading" activity needs to be limited to naked options on penny stocks and idiotic speculation. As I have said before, there is a lot in between. It is just riskier for people with limited capital to properly diversify a portfolio, which makes ETFs and mutual funds the better option for pretty much everyone.
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Aug 10, 2018 18:51
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Cheesemaster200 posted:Somewhere between then and now, this place has become the "penny stock gambling thread" and I don't know why. Probably because of the overwhelming and indisputable evidence that buying and holding a 3 fund portfolio will significantly outperform literally all active management on 30 year time line?
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Aug 10, 2018 19:02
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:Probably because of the overwhelming and indisputable evidence that buying and holding a 3 fund portfolio will significantly outperform literally all active management on 30 year time line? Past performance does not guarantee.... Something  (Btw, it is absolutely not "literally all") greasyhands fucked around with this message at 19:09 on Aug 10, 2018 |
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Aug 10, 2018 19:06
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:Probably because of the overwhelming and indisputable evidence that buying and holding a 3 fund portfolio will significantly outperform literally all active management on 30 year time line? That's almost entirely due to fees though. Also, I think it's 80%.
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Aug 10, 2018 19:09
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:Probably because of the overwhelming and indisputable evidence that buying and holding a 3 fund portfolio will significantly outperform literally all active management on 30 year time line? Indeed it does, but here we are. By that logic everyone in this thread should be in the long term investment thread. However we are still here, presumably because we are willing to take additional risk to try to prove ourselves the exception. What I don't understand is why "Stock Trading" has to be limited to micro-cap lottery tickets. Why the dichotomy on the risk spectrum? Why does everyone need to either be invested in funds or trading penny stock options?
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Aug 10, 2018 19:09
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Again, because anyone smart enough to analyze the winners and losers of the world's organizations has reached the same conclusion of index investing. Gambling is fun for the entire intelligence spectrum so that's why this is an active, penny stock focused thread. Penny stocks are awesome.
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Aug 10, 2018 19:12
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On the subject of wise vs stupid, what’s the shortest term you guys tend to pick things up for? I want to screw around with a small account basically gambling for my own amusement.
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Aug 10, 2018 19:13
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Harry Potter on Ice posted:lol retirement? funds? A post about me
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Aug 10, 2018 19:15
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I don't really understand why you would call this a penny stock thread in the first place... There's all kinds of stuff being invested in and talked about in here. HMNY is the meme of the moment but that's just fun to watch and talk about.
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Aug 10, 2018 19:15
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Comrayn posted:On the subject of wise vs stupid, what’s the shortest term you guys tend to pick things up for? I want to screw around with a small account basically gambling for my own amusement. Earnings are usually fun if you pick the right stock.
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Aug 10, 2018 19:17
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Cheesemaster200 posted:Why the dichotomy on the risk spectrum? Why does everyone need to either be invested in funds or trading penny stock options? Is that really happening though? I’ve been pounding the table for literally six years in this thread for AAPL and many of the other popular picks (SAFM, AMD, etc.) are well out of the pennies. I just ignore the penny posters, they usually go bust and flame out after a few months and disappear anyway.
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Aug 10, 2018 19:19
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Agronox posted:
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Aug 10, 2018 19:27
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greasyhands posted:The "Ive noticed a pattern and have started trading it" new posters that disappear after a month are the best thing about this thread I want to gamble a little, but with the understanding that I'm not going to probably beat the market.
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Aug 10, 2018 19:34
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I'm not particularly convinced this is the penny stock thread. It's just people who are actively embracing the concept of losers. (That other thread maybe pretends you won't lose) So first I'll explain why I think cashing out sucks, and then I'll explain what one could choose to do instead. Cashing out sucks because of the taxes and the economics of it. And I'm talking economics of it from the perspective of motivations of human behavior. First let's talk taxes. If you cash out today and then, miraculously, get to buy back in for the same price in November, then you are paying taxes on your gains for cashing out now, and have your money tied up in <whatever portfolio> come November. You can cash out part of it to pay those taxes, but then you're taxed on what you cash out next April, etc. It's a tax liability that you don't have to incur, but choose to incur for your opinion that the market will crash soon. More insidiously, having incurred this CERTAIN liability of taxes, you are now faced with two choices: - Buy back in without covering your tax liability. Maybe at a comparative net loss to staying in. Now you have to admit you're a loser to get back into the market. This is a difficult mental exercise for many people. - Wait for the crash "you know is coming" and don't buy back in. Now you continue to miss out on growth. I've been following this thread for literal years and every year someone comes into this thread and says they're going cash so they'll be prepared for the impending crash. Did those posters from 2014 get their crash to buy in at? Let's look at a few indices: SPX: Open 8/11/2014 - 1933.43 Open 8/10/2018 - 2839.64 NDX: Open 8/11/2014 - 3899.98 Open 8/10/2018 - 7409.05 RUT: Open 8/11/2014 - 1136.48 Open 8/10/2018 - 1689.32 At a very rough level, 30% of each index's value has accrued in the past 4 years, while people have been calling for an impending crash. I am NOT arguing that a crash is not going to happen. I AM arguing that you don't know when a crash is going to happen, or how big it would be. Each could drop 25% of it's value and still be ahead of where people who cashed out 4 years ago and sat in cash got. So, not only don't you know when the impending crash will happen, but you also don't know if it will crash enough to be net beneficial for sitting in cash. But if you go cash now, you got a lot of crow to eat to get back into the market. What can you do instead? You could buy into SDS, QID, or RWM to get gains off the above three indexes falling. You gotta do the math to find the right balance point for hedging your own portfolio. You can buy VIX calls or otherwise expose yourself to it's growth. The last major crash saw it flirt with 90, and the shocks we've seen have pushed it up over 30. You can pack on a lot of exposure to gain from that crash. And it will cost you the theta of those calls to maintain your insurance policy. Or, I guess you can sit in cash, secure in the knowledge that even if your anticipated crash doesn't come in Q3 2018, by then you'll have at least gained enough wisdom to get back in while the getting is good.
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Aug 10, 2018 19:37
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I also think it is important to put the last "crash" into perspective. The 2008 financial crisis was pretty bad when it happened, but it doesn't look like it in the rear-view mirror. People always say stocks are a 5-year time frame, and funnily enough that is what it took to remake the losses; less with dividends. That aside, until the statement of "I would rather have my money in bonds" makes logical sense to me, I think the market has more to run (barring some catastrophic event). Given that we are at 2-3% inflation and the 10-year can't break 3%, I would argue that would be for the foreseeable future.
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Aug 10, 2018 19:48
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I think it’s great that someone comes onto here and explains why he’s taking everything off the table, and then other posters counterpoint/ridicule. II happen to think the reasoning is flawed too.
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Aug 10, 2018 19:49
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I'm just here to buy the occasional lottery ticket.
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Aug 10, 2018 20:11
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It's all gambling with spare cash, it gives me something to root for between meetings.
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Aug 10, 2018 20:23
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greasyhands posted:https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-banks-made-millions-in-fees-selling-collapsing-moviepass-shares-2018-8 This is a good read. Great example of how utterly useless and potentially even deceptive analyst ratings are. Also a good reminder of how far detached the world of the retail investor is from the real money players.
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Aug 10, 2018 20:37
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Another EOD mini-dump on the Russell 2000. Thats 4 in a row.
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Aug 10, 2018 21:12
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:Hi! I mean do you want me to preface everything that I say with "With the 5% of my money that I'm loving around with short term trading, I'm doing..." or talk about which Vanguard funds I haven't touched in 3 years? Or that 80/20 growth/income split that I've got that I wont change for another 5 years sure is something right? Where should I talk about the short term trading aka gambles that I'm trying out?
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Aug 10, 2018 21:13
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TBH I assumed he misclicked and thought this was the Long Term Retirement thread. He has good, sound advice, but it's not applicable in the Funny Money thread! Putting it all on 6, 9, 4, 20 and Green this weekend 
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Aug 10, 2018 21:14
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Again, what is the difference between "funny money" or "spare cash" and savings? I do not see the difference. Is this just a mental justification that you are throwing away money? Dwight Eisenhower's overview on timing the market is just as applicable to an index fund as it is to an actively managed portfolio of three different stocks. Regardless of what percentage of your portfolio you are "loving around with", your intent is probably still to maximize your return on your capital. This means that investment rules applicable to fund investing are also applicable here, if not more so. Not having immediate need of cash and wanting to invest it more aggressively is not the same thing of throwing risk management out the window and hoping for the best on some whimsical gamble.
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Aug 10, 2018 22:13
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I'm sure it's a personal matter, but for me it's Savings -> use 99% of available funds to buy and hold VTSAX and VTIAX for 30+ years. Expectation of stable value appreciation for eventual retirement Funny Money -> use 1% of available funds to buy/hold/sell/short/call/put individual company stocks. Expectation of worse performance than Savings, with a remote potential for a big win
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Aug 10, 2018 22:19
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Cheesemaster200 posted:Again, what is the difference between "funny money" or "spare cash" and savings? I do not see the difference. Is this just a mental justification that you are throwing away money? This is not an investing thread, this is a trading thread. Investing and trading are not the same thing. The goal of investing is to maximize your return on your capital. The goal of trading is to gamble.
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Aug 10, 2018 22:20
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If one truly believes Bogle Index and Hold is the optimal strategy then opportunity cost means any variation from it whatsoever carries negative EV anyway so why not maximize the marginal fun utility of dollars that would be just as wasted in a slightly less minmaxed index fund?Rastor posted:This is not an investing thread, this is a trading thread. 
shame on an IGA fucked around with this message at 22:23 on Aug 10, 2018 |
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Aug 10, 2018 22:21
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Here's a link to the investing thread, this is not the investing thread: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=2892928
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Aug 10, 2018 22:21
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Cheesemaster200 posted:Again, what is the difference between "funny money" or "spare cash" and savings? I do not see the difference. Is this just a mental justification that you are throwing away money? Sure. It's a mental justification that I'm throwing away money that I'm happy to keep doing. The fact that I'm beating the market right now doesn't make it too hard to swallow.
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Aug 10, 2018 22:34
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Rastor posted:I understand the hate for market timing but this is literally the timing/gambling thread I use my IRA as my gambling fund. Short term gains? Pffft, no worries. 
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Aug 10, 2018 22:41
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:Penny stock ARYC about to announce their government contracts. Will go up 1,000% in the next year http://arrayit.com
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Aug 10, 2018 23:09
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numberoneposter posted:im having fun clicking around their website You'll LOVE their facebook! https://www.facebook.com/Arrayit
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Aug 10, 2018 23:10
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numberoneposter posted:im having fun clicking around their website Definitely took me a sec to realize that lady was sneezing and not something else...
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Aug 10, 2018 23:14
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Chris this does not seem like a good buy.
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Aug 10, 2018 23:20
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They don't pay anyone to manage their website or spellcheck their social media And they pass the savings on to you
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Aug 10, 2018 23:25
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Harry posted:After hours volume was basically nothing compared to shorted shares outstanding. 
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Aug 10, 2018 23:29
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Josh Lyman posted:It was my only green position today and I’m up 12% since buying premarket on Wednesday. Should have listened to my own advice. Sold wednesday afternoon at $46
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Aug 11, 2018 01:31
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:Penny stock ARYC about to announce their government contracts. Will go up 1,000% in the next year This must be some next level insider info because their site is utter trash and even in the gene research/modification field, I have never heard of them in my research.
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Aug 11, 2018 11:35
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Cheesemaster200 posted:Again, what is the difference between "funny money" or "spare cash" and savings? I do not see the difference. Is this just a mental justification that you are throwing away money? Funny money is for the strippers. Spare cash is for the mid-life crisis motorcycle. Savings is for the divorce lawyer. Hedonism, materialism, realism.
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Aug 11, 2018 13:04
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Oh man, amazing lack of foresight in this field: “However, a very well-known asset manager argued that the simple fact is that people are not going to manage a $500,000 or $1 million account or more from their phone. Most are still going to use a financial advisor/broker (or two or three), even if they do take a sharper pencil to the fees (which they should).”
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Aug 11, 2018 13:56
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