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fishmech posted:It's the ongoing existence of the Northern monarchy. So What, In Your Opinion, Is To Be Done With "The Northern Monarchy"
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Aug 10, 2018 15:15
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Pablo Nergigante posted:So What, In Your Opinion, Is To Be Done With "The Northern Monarchy" The same solution as the French monarchy.
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Aug 10, 2018 15:26
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A violent internal revolution, leading to a war against all of their neighbors, mass state terror campaigns, a decade of unrest and political instability, followed by a military coup installing a new strongman who then goes on to conquer most of the surrounding nations, before ultimately being defeated and replaced by the rightful heir of the original monarch? Seems unlikely, tbh. AFancyQuestionMark fucked around with this message at 19:17 on Aug 10, 2018 |
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Aug 10, 2018 19:07
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Of course, the actual lasting solution to the French monarchy was the public getting bored and saying, "nah, gently caress you guys and your dumb flags, we're done."
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Aug 10, 2018 19:33
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Warbadger posted:28,000 US troops in South Korea, about 50,000 in Japan, and 7,000 in Guam. The second Iraq war kicked off with 190,000 US troops in the initial invasion. The first Iraq war with 700,000 US troops, because the Iraqi military hadn't been disassembled yet. This. I do think a danger is some dumb half considered move by Trump/Bolton that could spiral us into war. If that happened the US would be caught pretty flat footed and would struggle to respond in any sustained way for quite a while. Though I always wonder what the response of SK would be. If they don't authorize a bombing and we do it anyway and suddenly they are thrust into war with an unreliably ally, do they just go with it? Do they try to split with us and negotiate a peace on terms very favorable to NK? What the hell does the international community do? It'd be such a mess.
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Aug 10, 2018 20:38
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FuzzySlippers posted:. Though I always wonder what the response of SK would be. If they don't authorize a bombing and we do it anyway and suddenly they are thrust into war with an unreliably ally, do they just go with it? Do they try to split with us and negotiate a peace on terms very favorable to NK? What the hell does the international community do? It'd be such a mess.
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Aug 10, 2018 20:49
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Rent-A-Cop posted:Pitch an absolute fit and maybe throw the US out, but the ROK has no need to roll over for the DPRK. They're perfectly capable of smashing old Soviet garbage all by themselves. They wouldn't be in danger of defeat, but would they be able to invade? Would they want to support an offensive war? Are they interested in sustaining the costs of a such a pointless war? Even if NK stays behind their border they are going to disrupt the hell out of SK's economy.
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Aug 10, 2018 21:15
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Is this one of those discussions where we pretend the north doesn't have 30-60 nuclear warheads again?
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Aug 10, 2018 23:57
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Ardennes posted:Is this one of those discussions where we pretend the north doesn't have 30-60 nuclear warheads again? We're talking a scenario where Trump gets bored and orders an ineffective air strike (like he was considering back in Jan) and there's a slow drift into increasing hostilities. If they don't suicidally unleash hellfire maybe they fight conventionally to give the international community time to favor them and somehow get the US to back down. This seems a more likely scenario than the US actually properly preparing for invasion because Trump's admin doesn't think on that long of a timeline. I was pondering in that situation what the hell does SK do stuck between such poor options? If we attack without provocation how seriously do other countries push back against us?
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Aug 11, 2018 02:11
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FuzzySlippers posted:We're talking a scenario where Trump gets bored and orders an ineffective air strike (like he was considering back in Jan) and there's a slow drift into increasing hostilities. If they don't suicidally unleash hellfire maybe they fight conventionally to give the international community time to favor them and somehow get the US to back down. The problem with this is that someone from the administration will inadvertently leak this. Also, I thought McMaster was the one who came up with the bloody nose strike?
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Aug 11, 2018 02:41
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This situation is unbelievably scary imo. Whether or not there is a serious nuclear attack on America depends on Trump managing his impulsive ego. He's insane, also.
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Aug 11, 2018 06:54
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FuzzySlippers posted:We're talking a scenario where Trump gets bored and orders an ineffective air strike (like he was considering back in Jan) and there's a slow drift into increasing hostilities. If they don't suicidally unleash hellfire maybe they fight conventionally to give the international community time to favor them and somehow get the US to back down. It sounded like invasion talk (again) rather than a one-off airstrike. The North isn't going to launch over an air-strike or two, but conventional invasion just really can't work. Also, South Korea clearly doesn't want to be involved. To be honest, I am less worried about Trump himself (who will listen to anyone) but his advisers. I don't think Trump came up with the recent idea to sanction half the developing world and cause a currency crash, it is the nuts that he has surrounded himself with.
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Aug 11, 2018 10:07
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Careful now or you gonna destroy that prescious narrative that everyone who wasn't clapping at Trump's stupid clownshow in Singapore is secretly a bloodthirsty Lieberal lusting for a war in Korea.
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Aug 11, 2018 13:35
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Raspberry Jam It In Me posted:Careful now or you gonna destroy that prescious narrative that everyone who wasn't clapping at Trump's stupid clownshow in Singapore is secretly a bloodthirsty Lieberal lusting for a war in Korea. Yeah man, I wouldn't go that far. I don't know how harmful the show actually was, but rather that the Trump administration (not just himself) simply doesn't have the flexibility for actual negotiation. In that context, the Democrats pushing Trump was actually unneeded more than harmful. At very least, it helped open the chance for possible more open bilateral SK-NK negotiations but that is more accidental than anything. (If anything the entire event showed that pretty much the entire political spectrum is dominated by hawks.) Ardennes fucked around with this message at 13:43 on Aug 11, 2018 |
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Aug 11, 2018 13:40
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Ardennes posted:Is this one of those discussions where we pretend the north doesn't have 30-60 nuclear warheads again? Linku plz Not saying it's bullshit, but I've been following these threads for years and it seems a kinda highball estimate.
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Aug 12, 2018 09:44
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Ardennes posted:The North isn't going to launch over an air-strike or two, But that is the problem isn't it? Once an attack happens North Korea has no way of knowing whether or not its a bloody nose strike or the beginning of an invasion. Trump has specifically sold himself as being unpredictable, and the North doesn't have the intel resources to see what we are really doing. The most logical thing for Un to do would be to nuke a small millitary target to show he means business and then tell everyone to back the gently caress off before he escalates further.
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Aug 13, 2018 05:07
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Bishounen Bonanza posted:But that is the problem isn't it? Once an attack happens North Korea has no way of knowing whether or not its a bloody nose strike or the beginning of an invasion. Trump has specifically sold himself as being unpredictable, and the North doesn't have the intel resources to see what we are really doing. The most logical thing for Un to do would be to nuke a small millitary target to show he means business and then tell everyone to back the gently caress off before he escalates further. If he does that we obliterate him and we'd have support for doing so, so any nuclear launch is going to involve all of his missiles for maximum damage.
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Aug 13, 2018 05:57
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Tias posted:Linku plz Between 1950 and 1955 the USSR produced 200 warheads. With presumably more technical knowledge and understanding of the techniques to produce them than the US initially did; and so presumably North Korea might have a better idea than the USSR initially in their mass production. So from the first successful test 200 bombs in five years seems a decent ballpark estimate.
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Aug 13, 2018 06:06
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Raenir Salazar posted:Between 1950 and 1955 the USSR produced 200 warheads. With presumably more technical knowledge and understanding of the techniques to produce them than the US initially did; and so presumably North Korea might have a better idea than the USSR initially in their mass production. We have no documents showing how shoddy the craftsmanship of those bombs. Yes the soviets produced a lot of bombs, but its not hard to make a bomb that may or may not be effective, however by classification is a nuclear weapon. The US produced bombs that were very effective with a higher succees rate than the soviet model. Does n. korea have a few dozen nukes? Absolutely, but most are theater based projectiles, so not a far distance to succeed in bombing, also having warheads attached to shoddy missile design yes its a nuke, but will it work? WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 06:38 on Aug 13, 2018 |
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Aug 13, 2018 06:36
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Tias posted:Linku plz https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction Wikipedia numbers, but I think 13 is too low. That said, we really don't know how many they have but they are continually producing them. Bishounen Bonanza posted:But that is the problem isn't it? Once an attack happens North Korea has no way of knowing whether or not its a bloody nose strike or the beginning of an invasion. Trump has specifically sold himself as being unpredictable, and the North doesn't have the intel resources to see what we are really doing. The most logical thing for Un to do would be to nuke a small millitary target to show he means business and then tell everyone to back the gently caress off before he escalates further. It really depends if it is a situation where the US army has mobilized tens of thousands (over 100k+) troops in the south versus a one off incident. If the US was already on the verge on invading, it is a better argument. Btw hitting North Korea with airstrikes is still stupid and counter-productive even if it doesn't lead them to immediately launching.
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Aug 13, 2018 09:33
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Raenir Salazar posted:Between 1950 and 1955 the USSR produced 200 warheads. With presumably more technical knowledge and understanding of the techniques to produce them than the US initially did; and so presumably North Korea might have a better idea than the USSR initially in their mass production. I'm sure you're aware that North Korea is not the USSR. Anyway, without a better view at how they're making them, that kind of speculation is hard to get results with. Here's Alex Weller (nuclear guru) on how hard it is to inspect weapons properly, particularly if you're dealing with a secretive and recalcitrant state - and that's providing they actually let in inspectors and show them the real weapons! I'd say there are more than 10, but 200 seems unrealistic.
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Aug 13, 2018 10:40
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https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/08/06/south-korea-is-going-crazy-over-a-handful-of-refugees/ With everything going, apparently one of the most pressing issues in South Korea is...a few hundred refugees? Enough to cause a 17% drop in approval rating, wtf. quote:The refugee issue pushed Moon’s approval rating to the lowest point since he took office, at 62 percent—an excellent number objectively, but a big drop from 79 percent that Moon was enjoying as recently as the second week of June, when the refugee issue began to emerge. Some other stuff stuck out in the article, if anyone could answer them 1) Government intelligence working to smear and discredit opposition parties. Have any people going to jail over this poo poo: quote:Under the Lee administration, for example, South Korea’s intelligence agency consulted psychologists to create the most damaging and humiliating edited images of liberal politicians and activists. The spy agency ran a division of agents dedicated to being professional internet trolls, spreading false rumors about liberal celebrities and promoting the insulting memes. The government bankrolled the far-right online media by forcing corporations to buy advertisements on them. 2) The article also mentions the current government is "implementing wide-ranging reforms of a dangerously out-of-control military" - can anyone elaborate on what's going on there?
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Aug 19, 2018 09:38
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On warhead counting, the estimates (government and non-governmental) have been increasing quickly because we're learning that the North Korean enrichment program was larger than we initially thought. It was recently revealed that Kangson was operating for years before the US intelligence community realized that it was an enrichment site, and that it's actually been in operation longer and is larger than the more well known Yongbyon site. It's also been leaked that a third enrichment site is thought to be active, although the open-source community has yet to locate it. The 60 warhead number comes from a DIA assessment that includes the Kangson production, whereas many prior estimates did not. The North Koreans have been able to hide production in the past, and may still be doing that today. It's very likely that most estimates, based on incomplete data, undercount the actual amount of weapons material the North Koreans have been able to produce.
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Aug 19, 2018 17:08
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mila kunis posted:https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/08/06/south-korea-is-going-crazy-over-a-handful-of-refugees/ I don't have a clue what this article is about. I was just in Seoul this weekend and the only protesters were the usual nutso cult members calling for Park Geun-hye's canonization. The notion that the drop in Moon Jae-in's approval ratings is related to this issue is just plain ridiculous. The main issue the press was pushing for awhile was that the minimum wage hike was responsible, but the minimum wage hike specifically does not poll very high as an issue of discontent compared to general economic anxiety. Which is the actual culprit here. The main news on that front lately has been the big development deal announced with Samsung- which I can't imagine has done much to placate Moon Jae-in's base, the more left-wing of which really hate South Korea's large corporations. Blaming feminists for that is the part of the article that really pisses me off though. The main thing feminists have been on about lately is the acquittal of Ahn Hee-jung. Well, that and conviction of that weirdo who on Womad, I think, who was posting camera footage of men on toilets online. I think it was supposed to be an ironic protest of when men do that. South Korean feminists can be a little nuts sometimes, but this is the first I've ever heard of any of them getting mad about Yemeni refugees. quote:1) Government intelligence working to smear and discredit opposition parties. Have any people going to jail over this poo poo: Work in progress. The lack of results so far is also another more likely explanation for the drop in Moon Jae-in's approval ratings than Yemeni refugees, because the main place he's been losing support has been from the left. quote:2) The article also mentions the current government is "implementing wide-ranging reforms of a dangerously out-of-control military" - can anyone elaborate on what's going on there? They seriously discussed using martial law to crack down on the Candlelight Protests, which is also being currently investigated. That's the main flashpoint, although the military and intelligence services simply not listening to or caring about anything elected officials say or do has long been a problem. There was a major domestic film release a couple of weeks ago about a real-life spy who alleges that, among other things, South Korean intelligence colluded with North Korea for the latter to do weapons tests next to the DMZ on the eve of the 1996 legislative election to drive up support for right-wing candidates.
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Aug 20, 2018 02:03
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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1033045273361178624 https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1033045280143355904
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Aug 24, 2018 19:30
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I wonder who dictated that.
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Aug 24, 2018 20:26
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Fojar38 posted:I wonder who dictated that. Yes, because clearly it's Bolton, and because of this, war is imminent (this is sarcasm by the way)
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Aug 24, 2018 20:29
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Willo567 posted:https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1033045273361178624 That last one sounds like he's writing to a pen pal who stopped replying to his letters instead of an antagonistic head of state.
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Aug 25, 2018 04:01
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https://twitter.com/willripleyCNN/status/1034396106862424065
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Aug 28, 2018 16:42
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Uh oh, they might resume the thing they never stopped doing.
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Aug 29, 2018 05:09
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Charliegrs posted:Uh oh, they might resume the thing they never stopped doing. [citation needed]
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Aug 29, 2018 11:12
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https://twitter.com/nktpnd/status/1034874143743926274 That's good and fine, right?
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Aug 29, 2018 21:09
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how much of a dumbass do you have to be? do the good and smart thing (officially end a war that has been over unofficially for a lifetime) you told Kim you would do, get a big ol’ press conference when the DPRK responds with concrete process towards disarmament, get the photo op shaking hands with Kim and Moon, and bank the easy landmark win. please, donald. reduce the threat of nuclear annihilation to own the libs.
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Aug 30, 2018 08:41
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TenementFunster posted:how much of a dumbass do you have to be? do the good and smart thing (officially end a war that has been over unofficially for a lifetime) you told Kim you would do, get a big ol’ press conference when the DPRK responds with concrete process towards disarmament, get the photo op shaking hands with Kim and Moon, and bank the easy landmark win. A wise man once said that a retarded hawk is not a dove, it's just a hawk with mental retardation  He is not gonna do the exact same PR stunt twice because rubes are gonna go for much less now. It's time for a new scheme. Maybe something with Venezuela?
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Aug 30, 2018 09:19
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Raspberry Jam It In Me posted:It's time for a new scheme. Maybe something with Venezuela?
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Aug 30, 2018 09:44
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Christ https://www.theatlantic.com/interna...tent=edit-promo quote:There are other passages in Woodward’s book, a copy of which was obtained by The Atlantic ahead of its release next week, that bolster this representation of Mattis. Woodward writes, for example, that the president “scared the daylights” out of Mattis and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Joseph Dunford in January—around the time Trump was engaged in a nuclear button–measuring contest with Kim Jong Un—by proposing that he declare on Twitter that he would be evacuating all family members of U.S. troops from South Korea, which North Korean leaders would likely have interpreted as a clear sign that war was imminent. The tweet was never sent.
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Sep 7, 2018 03:43
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No missiles at the parade this year. That's a good sign?
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Sep 10, 2018 22:57
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Grapplejack posted:No missiles at the parade this year. That's a good sign? It’s at least not a bad sign.
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Sep 10, 2018 23:13
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https://twitter.com/business/status/1039242125148409856?s=19 I hope Trump salutes Kim this time instead of one of his generals.
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Sep 10, 2018 23:41
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AWWW they are such a cute couple!
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Sep 12, 2018 01:09
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