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A Buttery Pastry posted:Well, the issue is that No Deal is the default. May doesn't have to go for No Deal, she just has to fail to get a deal - which seems right up her alley. There is certainly a nonzero risk of a No Deal Brexit because none of the alternatives to No Deal Brexit have majority backing and so the default outcome is no deal, but ultimately I suspect a majority of British MPs are aware of how insane that outcome would be and will therefore vote to swallow the temporary limitation of sovereignty that the ultimate form of the Withdrawal Agreement is likely to imply, while the EU side will try to help them in doing so by fudging things as much as possible. However, my estimation of the likely outcomes is worth about  less than you paid for the ability to read it though.Tesseraction posted:tank u predisent trump https://twitter.com/ap/status/1022216726845513728?s=21 Probably a good idea to wait out tomorrow's news to figure out what was agreed exactly, and wait even longer to see how this translates to actual EU policy. Pluskut Tukker fucked around with this message at 22:03 on Jul 25, 2018 |
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Jul 25, 2018 22:00
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Raspberry Jam It In Me posted:I'm not following the Brexit drama. Aren't they supposed to, de facto, remain in the EU with the whole "transition phase" bullshit for the next couple of years? They're going to completely fail in every Brexit thing because they still cannot comprehend it's not a domestic issue and requires an actual foreign policy. They will crash out with no deal and realize it two days before it's goibg to happen. Then they'll blame The EU for everything.
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Jul 26, 2018 00:05
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Pluskut Tukker posted:Probably a good idea to wait out tomorrow's news to figure out what was agreed exactly, and wait even longer to see how this translates to actual EU policy. Bigger issue is that Trump is a pathological liar and he's probably trying (poorly) to 'box in' Juncker and the EU.
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Jul 26, 2018 00:09
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Pluskut Tukker posted:There is certainly a nonzero risk of a No Deal Brexit because none of the alternatives to No Deal Brexit have majority backing and so the default outcome is no deal, but ultimately I suspect a majority of British MPs are aware of how insane that outcome would be and will therefore vote to swallow the temporary limitation of sovereignty that the ultimate form of the Withdrawal Agreement is likely to imply, while the EU side will try to help them in doing so by fudging things as much as possible. However, my estimation of the likely outcomes is worth about
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Jul 26, 2018 05:31
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A Buttery Pastry posted:A whole bunch of MPs have actual money riding on a No Deal Brexit though, others ideological goals that would be greatly helped by economic chaos - like weakening Britain enough that the NHS would get sold entirely to Americans. It pretty much seems a significant enough portion of the Tories are willing to burn the country down in the pursuit of their goals, while another decent chunk believe the Brexit hype. As far as I've heard, the "European Research Group" of pro-Brexit extremists in the Conservative party has around 80 members at most, i.e. around a quarter of the total number of Conservative MP's. Enough to deny the government a majority in Parliament if they take away their support, not enough to overthrow May and take over control of the Conservatives. Also, around three quarters of MP's in the last Parliament voted Remain, I don't think it's much different now. And while I still can't figure out what Corbyn's endgame is on Brexit, there has been no reason to suggest Labour would back No Deal Brexit, so if May manages to finalise a deal with the EU (a big if, I know), I think there will be a majority for it in Parliament. e: I also think the Tories have already been quite successful burning down the country as it is, even while it was within the EU. Pluskut Tukker fucked around with this message at 06:10 on Jul 26, 2018 |
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Jul 26, 2018 06:02
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maybe for their cafeterias or something? soy is healthy so I support that
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Jul 26, 2018 06:23
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Pluskut Tukker posted:As far as I've heard, the "European Research Group" of pro-Brexit extremists in the Conservative party has around 80 members at most, i.e. around a quarter of the total number of Conservative MP's. Enough to deny the government a majority in Parliament if they take away their support, not enough to overthrow May and take over control of the Conservatives. Pluskut Tukker posted:Also, around three quarters of MP's in the last Parliament voted Remain, I don't think it's much different now. Pluskut Tukker posted:e: I also think the Tories have already been quite successful burning down the country as it is, even while it was within the EU.
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Jul 26, 2018 06:45
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A Buttery Pastry posted:But they don't actually need to take control, just prevent May from doing so. It's not a symmetrical struggle. I don't see what you mean by the first point - May *is* still PM and her office *is* formally in charge of the Brexit negotiations and for all practical purposes has been in control of those for many months now, which is how we got the Withdrawal Agreement. Boris Johnson and David Davis have resigned along with a bunch of no-name Brexiteer lesser lights and this hasn't led to a larger rebellion or leadership contest. So May has the power and the control necessary to agree something with the EU on the Irish border and some longer term fudge on the future relationship, and then the only question is if she can ultimately get that deal through Parliament. I think she can, both because Parliament is not entirely insane ( viz. the large number of Remainers there), and also because normally speaking the next elections will be in 2022, at which point under the current terms Britain will have Brexited and which therefore gives those constituents more than enough time to get over their possible disapproval of their MP's vote. The main risk therefore to the outcome of the negotiations is the incompetence of May's government. I do agree that it doesn't matter what I think, but you should still not overestimate the power of the hardcore Brexiteer faction. Sure they are even more petty, greedy and evil than the average Tory, but they don't by themselves have the power to force a no deal Brexit. Sure the media loves Rees-Mogg, but at the point where media are starting to talk about the necessity of stockpiling food and medicine in case of no deal, his ability to force that outcome is going to be greatly diminished.
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Jul 26, 2018 08:09
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We're at the 'talking about stockpile' phase and the change is negligible because the pretense is that a deal will happen. The final deal will fail Labours red lines so their support cant be counted on for any parliamentary vote. The only thing that's maybe getting a bit of traction is the idea of a referendum on the final deal but given the Tories situation that'll mean pisspoor campaigning for a deal which has no benefits and nobody wanted or rejecting the deal and letting the Tories determine what that means which will be no deal Brexit.
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Jul 26, 2018 08:52
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The talking about stockpiling reserves stuff is a lame and totally transparent negotiating tactic designed to make the government look tough and also to scare the domestic opposition into submission. The preparations for no deal do not even have a ghost of a chance to be ready by next year, and everybody who knows anything about the subject in the EU knows this. Some of the necessary preparations need the cooperation of other countries in any case, like agreeing a legal framework through which planes can keep flying for instance. So even the prospect of no deal is going to send businesses fleeing for the exits many months before it actually happens. Pressure to agree to a deal after all will therefore be enormous.
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Jul 26, 2018 09:09
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Raspberry Jam It In Me posted:maybe for their cafeterias or something? soy is healthy so I support that I thought that non-fermented soy was normally used for pigs, and the Chinese laugh at us for using it as human food, since it's toxic?
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Jul 26, 2018 16:07
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Pluskut Tukker posted:The talking about stockpiling reserves stuff is a lame and totally transparent negotiating tactic designed to make the government look tough and also to scare the domestic opposition into submission.
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Jul 26, 2018 16:41
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A Buttery Pastry posted:What do you mean? Are you saying the UK actually does have the customs capacity to deal with the volume of goods it's currently importing? You must be getting your news from somewhere else than the UKMT then. Like I said, "the preparations for no deal do not even have a ghost of a chance to be ready by next year," in part because the UK indeed lacks the customs capacity to deal with the volume of goods it is currently importing, and won't have that capacity for another five years or so at least, and also because the stockpiling of food and medicine is almost literally impossible. But the British public by and large doesn't know that! Until quite recently polls were showing that people still believed that 'no deal is better than a bad deal', so from the government's perspective it was clearly necessary to scare the living daylights out of the public. So, when British government ministers are making a show of saying that they're preparing for a no-deal Brexit, they do so mainly to generate a public consensus that a no-deal Brexit would be really bad (in the case of Raab, it may also be because he's just not very well informed ). That makes people more willing to accept any possible alternative to no deal even if that is a really bad deal which surrenders British sovereignty. It also makes the domestic opposition look exceedingly irresponsible in case it were to try and stop a deal from happening. And I do indeed not get my news from the UKMT - most everyone who is knowledgeable on this topic is on Twitter, so when you know who and what to look for that is an excellent source of news and analysis.
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Jul 26, 2018 17:19
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Well Barnier is blunting saying Chequer proposal is unacceptable so that's pretty much any concept of a deal dead unless the UK parliament is bypassed one way or another which might well cause a political crisis so severe that we don't have a functional legislative able to stop No Deal. I think your attitude of 'No one could possibly do such a stupid thing while being completely incapable of dealing with the consequences!' to be a little.... optimistic?
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Jul 26, 2018 18:39
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namesake posted:I think your attitude of 'No one could possibly do such a stupid thing while being completely incapable of dealing with the consequences!' to be a little.... optimistic? Pluskut Tukker posted:And I do indeed not get my news from the UKMT - most everyone who is knowledgeable on this topic is on Twitter, so when you know who and what to look for that is an excellent source of news and analysis.
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Jul 26, 2018 18:58
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Please keep clowning our idiot president. This never-ending humiliation is probably the best thing that the EU can do to impact our 2020 elections. https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1022569745760088067
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Jul 26, 2018 21:48
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Thats brilliant. The so often disparaged EU bureaucrats are really shining now that they're sandwiched between the Tories on one side and Trump on the other. Its no wonder faith in the EU is at its highest in 30 years across the continent.
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Jul 26, 2018 23:08
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namesake posted:Well Barnier is blunting saying Chequer proposal is unacceptable so that's pretty much any concept of a deal dead unless the UK parliament is bypassed one way or another which might well cause a political crisis so severe that we don't have a functional legislative able to stop No Deal. To be clear, I am not saying that I am 100% certain that there will be a deal. I'd put the odds at somewhere between 60-70% give or take (this risk assessment is much more sophisticated though). But that Barnier would reject the 'Chequers' plan was expected basically the moment the moment it was published. That does not mean that there will be no deal; it means instead that the deal on offer will likely put a customs barrier in the Irish Sea or that perhaps the customs 'backstop' will apply to the whole of the UK after all, or there is a fudge like discussed in a thread here, provided that May can get her cabinet to accept that (easier now that the most important Brexiteers in it are gone). Parliament will get a vote on that deal, and it will also get a vote if 'no deal' becomes a real possibility (though nobody is certain what that would mean right now). I'll cop to having a tendency to excessive optimism, but I think I'm far from the only one. If Barnier's rejection of Chequers really meant that 'no deal' was now certain, then that should be all over the newspaper front pages and you should have an almighty stock market crash tomorrow. Instead, it's crickets so far in the newspapers, because there is some time left and some room for positions to shift still. A Buttery Pastry posted:Pretty much my take. That old saying about "Can't reason someone out of something they didn't reason themselves into" really applies here - Brexit was sold on dreams, and every person trying to argue that it might not be a great idea is essentially portrayed as a traitor. Like literally wanting to try people for treason for showing "extreme EU loyalty" coming from a Tory MP. Even if that's the extreme, it's an actual politicians making those remarks - there's little reason to think the people who've been told "It's the Eurocrats' fault!" for 40 years are gonna be convinced by a hated government and mainstream media that perhaps it ain't such a great idea to leave. Treason guy was an MEP who defected from UKIP, not anybody important. The hardcore pro-Brexit faction that is prepared to exit even without a deal is loud and manages to create a lot of sound and fury and get a lot of attention but they're still a distinct minority in the Tory party and they are not by themselves in a position to force a no deal Brexit.
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Jul 27, 2018 00:28
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And all of this batshit insanity for absolutely no gain  Even in a best case scenario where they get a deal, their next goal would be to quietly rejoin the Union ASAP(20 years?) to get their political representation back, right? GABA ghoul fucked around with this message at 06:29 on Jul 27, 2018 |
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Jul 27, 2018 06:26
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Blut posted:Its no wonder faith in the EU is at its highest in 30 years across the continent. 
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Jul 27, 2018 06:31
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Blut posted:Thats brilliant. The so often disparaged EU bureaucrats are really shining now that they're sandwiched between the Tories on one side and Trump on the other. Its no wonder faith in the EU is at its highest in 30 years across the continent. Hey when these fuckers are using their bureaucracy to grind total morons who are also foreign to the EU to dust instead of our own working class it turns out a lot fewer people have a problem with them. Raspberry Jam It In Me posted:And all of this batshit insanity for absolutely no gain That would be a massive gain for the rest of the EU, as surely GB would lose a lot of their special exceptions and such they had been enjoying. There's also the small chance the British finally realize they are no longer, in fact, an empire and are humbled by the experience. But probably not. Orange Devil fucked around with this message at 08:23 on Jul 27, 2018 |
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Jul 27, 2018 08:20
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Orange Devil posted:That would be a massive gain for the rest of the EU, as surely GB would lose a lot of their special exceptions and such they had been enjoying. There's also the small chance the British finally realise they are no longer, in fact, an empire and are humbled by the experience. But probably not. The absolute dipshits in this country will never loving accept that in my lifetime. It's like living in the Exarchate of Ravenna in 700CE, convinced the Roman Empire in the west is still fine.
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Jul 27, 2018 12:38
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forkboy84 posted:The absolute dipshits in this country will never loving accept that in my lifetime. It's like living in the Exarchate of Ravenna in 700CE, convinced the Roman Empire in the west is still fine. Raspberry Jam It In Me posted:And all of this batshit insanity for absolutely no gain Toplowtech fucked around with this message at 12:55 on Jul 27, 2018 |
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Jul 27, 2018 12:52
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Dawncloack posted:Do you have a source for that? Thanks in advance http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20180522IPR04027/public-opinion-survey-finds-record-support-for-eu-despite-brexit-backdrop quote:The latest Parliament Eurobarometer survey, published one year ahead of the European elections in May 2019, confirms citizens’ steadily growing support for the European Union.
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Jul 27, 2018 13:01
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Pluskut Tukker posted:The hardcore pro-Brexit faction that is prepared to exit even without a deal is loud and manages to create a lot of sound and fury and get a lot of attention but they're still a distinct minority in the Tory party and they are not by themselves in a position to force a no deal Brexit. The thing is that while this is true in theory, in practice we've seen May capitulate, needlessly, to them again and again, rather than suck it up for the good of the country and rely on Labour votes. It's astounding how pathetically she's giving ground to a group of something like 14 rebels willing to damage the government given they would not no confidence her (and in fact, can't do so successfully since you need a 2/3rds majority to no confidence a government into a general election). Utterly craven spinelessness.
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Jul 27, 2018 13:31
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Tesseraction posted:The thing is that while this is true in theory, in practice we've seen May capitulate, needlessly, to them again and again, rather than suck it up for the good of the country and rely on Labour votes. Telling the hardcore Brexiters to screw off would almost certainly screw the conservatives in the next election, and take a bunch of heat off Corbyn. Hell, UKIP is starting to come back from the grave already they have gone from 2-3% to 5-6% recently, enough put Labour back in an advantageous position. It the strategy of the Conservatives is almost certainly to try to run out the clock then somehow extend negotiations past the 2-year mark until they somehow get to 2022 or just just call an election and then blame Corbyn for everything (UK press will comply because they are they f'ing insane).
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Jul 27, 2018 14:06
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Tesseraction posted:The thing is that while this is true in theory, in practice we've seen May capitulate, needlessly, to them again and again, rather than suck it up for the good of the country and rely on Labour votes. the threat isnt a no confidence vote in her government, it's a no confidence vote from her party. They have the numbers to unseat her whenever they feel like it and the general election stuff is her faction saying "touch us and we'll let corbyn gently caress u right up". Given the leavers are a pack of filthy criminals they're even more terrified than your average tory of a socialist-sympathisizing government
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Jul 27, 2018 14:20
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Spangly A posted:the threat isnt a no confidence vote in her government, it's a no confidence vote from her party. They have the numbers to unseat her whenever they feel like it and the general election stuff is her faction saying "touch us and we'll let corbyn gently caress u right up". Given the leavers are a pack of filthy criminals they're even more terrified than your average tory of a socialist-sympathisizing government right, but those hard brexiteers daren't no-confidence her because they don't actually have the numbers willing to do such damage to the party brand
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Jul 27, 2018 14:31
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They are prisoners of each other, and the only course of action is to bumble along, neither giving up on Brexit or putting the effort in to make it successful. It is also why anyone assigned to negotiate the terms is expressly a sacrifice on the pyre of party politics.
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Jul 27, 2018 14:54
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Toplowtech posted:But also remember that last time you asked to join the EU, there was a referendum in France, i am not sure that would end up with a yes vote again. The other time the British bid was explicitly blocked by De Gaulle, so it needn't even be put to a vote. e: The reasoning he gave was fairly prescient quote:Thereupon Great Britain posed her candidature to the Common Market. She did it after Private Speech fucked around with this message at 15:14 on Jul 27, 2018 |
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Jul 27, 2018 15:00
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Pretty sure on top of literally betting on a no-deal Brexit most of the tories are salivating at the prospect of looting the country post-Soviet style.
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Jul 27, 2018 15:44
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 news!Minister for Family Lorenzo Fontana, the same shithead who said "same-sex families do not exist" and "we will prosecute anyone who goes abroad to have a child using a surrogate, since it's forbidden by law in Italy" posted on facebook regarding the Mancino law. The Mancino law is, quoting (and translating) from Wikipedia: quote:The Law 205 of 25 June 1993 (known as Mancino law from the Catholic Democrat Nicola Mancino, who was then Minister for the Interior and the main proponent of the law) is a Law of the Italian Republic that punishes and sets out penalties for acts, actions and words tied to the nazi-fascist ideology, and acts, actions and words which purposefully call for violence and discrimination based on race, ethnicity, religion, or national origin. The law also punishes the use of symbols tied to nazi-fascist political movements. Emphasis mine. Well then, what did Fontana say? quote:The facts of the last few days [note: a sharp increase in racist attacks on POCs] make ever more clear how racism has become an ideological weapon wielded by globalists and their slaves (some journalists and mainstream news, some political parties) to point their finger against the Italian People and falsely accuse them of being responsible for despicable things. to make the majority of citizens feel guilty for their vote and for the intolerable distance of their rethoric from one-thought. A subtle and dangerous ideological weapon carefully developed to sway public opinion. All the first pages of newspapers have artfully built up a "dangerous wave of racism", but we find out in a tragic parody that there's no racism at all. If there is racism today is first of all the one the mainstream news uses against Italians. Why? Because a people that doesn't conform to a single thought and that knows perfectly their identity and history scares globalists, because they can't be used. And I'm not even going to comment this. Luckily the rest of the government, both from Lega and the 5SM, said "Nope, we're not even touching this, the law is fine as it is", so this is safe at least for now. Mikl fucked around with this message at 23:16 on Aug 3, 2018 |
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Aug 3, 2018 23:08
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Hi Europol thread! https://twitter.com/mariatad/status/1027134305515040768 Full article (in Spanish) which unfortunately does not make clear why they chose to publish these particular photographs (yes there's more). Pluskut Tukker fucked around with this message at 12:06 on Aug 8, 2018 |
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Aug 8, 2018 12:03
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Well today could be interesting if Erdogan threatens to release Syrian refugees into Europe if the EU doesn't bail him out of his self-made hole.
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Aug 13, 2018 10:21
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Also an interesting day if you happen to be Spanish I guess
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Aug 13, 2018 10:26
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Tesseraction posted:Also an interesting day if you happen to be Spanish I guess Jesus H.G. Wells. What's been going on with Spain, anyway? Place sounds like a basket case.
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Aug 13, 2018 10:47
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The populace kept voting in the pee pee party (Partido Popular) and they kept doing stupid poo poo and the PSOE are a bunch of paella-brained idiots who keep failing to un-gently caress things when they grab power. Who knows maybe this time they'll get it right?
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Aug 13, 2018 10:54
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Tesseraction posted:Also an interesting day if you happen to be Spanish I guess Edit: of course it's BNP Paribas and UniCredit SpA. Toplowtech fucked around with this message at 11:31 on Aug 13, 2018 |
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Aug 13, 2018 11:26
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Toplowtech posted:Edit: of course it's BNP Paribas and UniCredit SpA.
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Aug 13, 2018 11:41
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Fat Samurai posted:Link, please? I work in a bank starting their second merger in the last decade and it’s starting to get old. Source is Bloomberg: 
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Aug 13, 2018 11:46
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