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jmzero posted:They must have a very high pick-score in draft too. I'd take them pretty early (for collection value) but they don't make it out of the first couple picks. This feels kind of lame - the bots should be trying to replicate a reasonably competitive draft, not rare drafting. At the risk of conspiracy-crafting it feels like some cards are far more likely than others to appear. I posted earlier about getting 8 Josu Vess in a row and it feels like some other cards have a way higher chance of appearing (I've gotten a ton of Elder Dragons out of Dominaria, but have had to use wildcards for almost every Saga, eg) It wouldn't really surprise me at all if dual lands were secretly less likely to appear than anything else. This may even be for a misguided but well-meaning reason ("Our data shows that new players aren't excited about opening lands")
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Aug 16, 2018 18:28
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Edit: oops!
Tainen fucked around with this message at 19:54 on Aug 16, 2018 |
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Aug 16, 2018 18:31
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The thing is though, since Arena has no real tournaments, who cares about the lost EV from good dual lands as opposed to taplands?
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Aug 16, 2018 18:33
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evilweasel posted:The thing is though, since Arena has no real tournaments, who cares about Arena.
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Aug 16, 2018 18:43
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evilweasel posted:The thing is though, since Arena has no real tournaments, who cares about the lost EV from good dual lands as opposed to taplands? I'm not sure what you're saying here. Are you saying that I shouldn't care about my deck being as consistent as possible just because "lmao Arena"?  Anyway, I gotta admit, the new Arena update today has made the client much faster. Games go by lightning fast now. Also the matchmaking appears to be working better.
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Aug 16, 2018 19:36
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precision posted:I'm not sure what you're saying here. Are you saying that I shouldn't care about my deck being as consistent as possible just because "lmao Arena"? yeah, basically, because for the most part you're gonna have more fun making new decks than getting your deck just a biiiiiit more consistent and there's no real rewards for winning
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Aug 16, 2018 19:41
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Bullshit. That would mean something went right and that's impossible and hope is a lie.
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Aug 16, 2018 19:42
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precision posted:At the risk of conspiracy-crafting it feels like some cards are far more likely than others to appear. I posted earlier about getting 8 Josu Vess in a row and it feels like some other cards have a way higher chance of appearing (I've gotten a ton of Elder Dragons out of Dominaria, but have had to use wildcards for almost every Saga, eg) Nah, you're being weird and bad at stats. For an anecdote in the other direction, I've had drafts with 5 duals, and have gotten way more sagas than I want. evilweasel posted:yeah, basically, because for the most part you're gonna have more fun making new decks than getting your deck just a biiiiiit more consistent and there's no real rewards for winning It's also fun to play proper Standard, like you would on MTGO, and the competitive league is fine until they remove it in a week.
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Aug 16, 2018 19:45
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i mean theres a point to be made on the merits of fine tuning your one deck versus being able to build a new one, but you dont have the option to do either so fine tuning your deck better be significantly more satisfying in a vacuum, and i am pretty sure it isnt.
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Aug 16, 2018 19:49
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Hell yeah. That’s the good stuff https://twitter.com/basicmountain/status/1030162814831276032 https://twitter.com/calebdmtg/status/1030152097944268800 https://twitter.com/ondrejstrasky/status/1030155842602057729 https://twitter.com/SethManfield/status/1030161534394228736?s=20 Tainen fucked around with this message at 20:10 on Aug 16, 2018 |
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Aug 16, 2018 19:54
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Tom Clancy is Dead posted:Nah, you're being weird and bad at stats. For an anecdote in the other direction, I've had drafts with 5 duals, and have gotten way more sagas than I want.
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Aug 16, 2018 19:55
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Tom Clancy is Dead posted:Nah, you're being weird and bad at stats. For an anecdote in the other direction, I've had drafts with 5 duals, and have gotten way more sagas than I want I mean maybe sure. I maintain that the likelihood of getting 8 Josu Vess in a row is so insanely unlikely that it's more believable that there was some buggy code. That's something like a 1/1.679616e+14 chance. That's about the odds of someone knocking on my door in the next 2 seconds and handing me a 8 mint condition Black Lotuses.
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Aug 16, 2018 20:00
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The hilarious part of the Magic Hall of Fame is that it's mostly important as a way to get people stop playing so much Magic.
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Aug 16, 2018 20:11
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Angry Grimace posted:The hilarious part of the Magic Hall of Fame is that it's mostly important as a way to get people stop playing so much Magic. it sounds like for the apac dudes its now extremely important though
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Aug 16, 2018 20:13
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rabidsquid posted:it sounds like for the apac dudes its now extremely important though For the exact same reason, as far as I can tell. They don't want to have to play a bunch of Magic to play the highest level event. The Magic Hall of Fame exists as a way to "reward" players for making very poor life decisions.
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Aug 16, 2018 20:16
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i mean i think the apac dudes have to play every single available event which isnt really reasonable. pro magic player isnt a great career but i am not gonna rag on these dudes because wotc wants to gently caress them over tremendously for no reason other than greed
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Aug 16, 2018 20:19
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precision posted:I mean maybe sure. I maintain that the likelihood of getting 8 Josu Vess in a row is so insanely unlikely that it's more believable that there was some buggy code. That's something like a 1/1.679616e+14 chance. That's about the odds of someone knocking on my door in the next 2 seconds and handing me a 8 mint condition Black Lotuses. the odds of it happening to you, in particular, yes. the odds of something equally unlikely happening to someone posting in this thread? much, much, much higher
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Aug 16, 2018 20:58
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make the vault spit out full playsets of rare lands
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Aug 16, 2018 21:05
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rabidsquid posted:i think part of the problem with the arena new player experience is that because of long rooted game design theres not like, cheap reliable common cards that go in multiple decks. there's no commons style "good stuff" deck you can just slap together with low level wildcards and have some variety. i dont think this shines through much now because of the stack of older mythics you start with, but that R/b starter style deck thats arena popular is chock full of mythics and would be something relatively expensive you'd have to build even though its a pretty good and strong "newbie deck." Isn't the rarity % of decks incredibly skewed towards rare and mythic to a ludicrious degree? Isn't rare far and away the biggest % of a deck and has been for a while? If you designing cards in a set to makeup such a huge % of the constructed playable to be rare or better your new player experience is going to be pretty lackluster.
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Aug 16, 2018 21:14
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hey now, they print Standard playable commons all the time like Negate, Essence Scatter, Duress and
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Aug 16, 2018 21:28
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precision posted:I mean maybe sure. I maintain that the likelihood of getting 8 Josu Vess in a row is so insanely unlikely that it's more believable that there was some buggy code. That's something like a 1/1.679616e+14 chance. That's about the odds of someone knocking on my door in the next 2 seconds and handing me a 8 mint condition Black Lotuses. The odds of you getting that rare in those 8 packs is astronomically low, but the odds of someone getting a run of 8 of the same rare at some point approaches 1. Tom Clancy is Dead fucked around with this message at 21:34 on Aug 16, 2018 |
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Aug 16, 2018 21:28
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mossyfisk posted:hey now, they print Standard playable commons all the time like Negate, Essence Scatter, Duress and Forest, swamp, island.
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Aug 16, 2018 21:35
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Tom Clancy is Dead posted:The odds of you getting that rare in those 8 packs is astronomically low, but the odds of someone getting a run of 8 of the same rare at some point approaches 1. evilweasel posted:the odds of it happening to you, in particular, yes. the odds of something equally unlikely happening to someone posting in this thread? much, much, much higher Yes, I know how math works. There are like 20 people who post in this thread. That's not "much, much, much" higher. Josu Vess is one of, what, 60-ish cards that could appear in that slot, right? 1/60 chance. Now think about the odds of rolling a 1 on a 60 sided dice 8 times. Now think about the odds of rolling a 1 on a 60 sided die 8 times consecutively (because I think you guys might be missing that I'm quite literally saying it happened 8 times in a row). The odds of that are roughly 1 in 167,961,600,000,000. The odds do not increase very much if you say "Well, what if we look at all 20 people who post in this thread?!" Like I said I'm totally willing to concede that I experience an event whose probability is so absurdly low, but I'm also willing to entertain the notion that notoriously bad at computers company WOTC had some weird issue going on with their software.
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Aug 16, 2018 21:50
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precision posted:Yes, I know how math works. There are like 20 people who post in this thread. That's not "much, much, much" higher. Your math is very, very bad. First, it's 7 times. To get the same rare eight times in a row when the chances of getting one specific rare are about 1/60, you need to hit that 1/60 seven times, not eight (because the first time just tells you what the card you're trying to get 8 of in a row is). Then, you have to ask yourself how many booster packs you have opened, so the question is not how likely is it that, right now, you will hit eight of the same rare in a row (which is your math), but how likely is it there is a sequence of eight of the same rare in a row if you line up all of your booster openings in a row. Then, you have to ask what other fantastically unlikely things might have happened instead that would seem bizarre (ten mythics in a row with no rares, say). You add all that stuff up, something seemingly not-random happening starts looking much more likely.
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Aug 16, 2018 22:01
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ilmucche posted:Forest, swamp, island. This is just barely true - there's literally more Abrades in standard right now than there are Swamps. Plains are even worse - there's as many Teferis as there are Plains. Mountains outnumber any other card 3-to-1 (it goes, Mountain->Forest->Island->Scrapheap Scrounger).
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Aug 16, 2018 22:06
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the odds of somebody cracking 8 josu vess in a row are exactly the same as anybody cracking any specific list of 8 rares in a row
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Aug 16, 2018 22:07
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evilweasel posted:Your math is very, very bad. You're not wrong but I can't believe how hard people stump for WOTC when math comes into the picture. We all know they suck at digital products. It was actually proven that the shuffler in Duels was doing weird/broken stuff. All I'm saying is isn't it possible that something glitched out I know my math is bad but it's still an insanely unlikely thing to happen and it's kinda funny seeing you guys try to tell me it's not.  dragon enthusiast posted:the odds of somebody cracking 8 josu vess in a row are exactly the same as anybody cracking any specific list of 8 rares in a row Yes and those odds are insanely low. edit: I'm done with this silly derail, and I'm not saying that to be a prick or to get the last word, I just honestly do not have the patience for these "well actually it's super likely that this happened" arguments. I'm not talking about drawing 8 lands in a row here. precision fucked around with this message at 22:10 on Aug 16, 2018 |
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Aug 16, 2018 22:07
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the only reason you think it's glitched is cause are dumb lizard brains assign meaning to patterns if the rng was unfairly biased to always spit out 8 different rares, or never spit out josu vess because the system detected you would put down a reverse mortgage to crack one, it wouldn't even have registered as a blip on your radar
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Aug 16, 2018 22:26
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dragon enthusiast posted:make the vault spit out full playsets of rare lands I don't get why they don't simply make them guaranteed rewards from various events that have individual card rewards. Like, if you spend the coins to go through a Quick Constructed, just throw a goddamn rare land out or make the rare lands much more likely to pop through those - it gets people playing and the rewards are at least guaranteed not to be total loving poo poo..
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Aug 16, 2018 22:36
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I was all set to play Arena because I just got another Vault unlock, but then when updating I caught it trying to delete my Program Files. Guess it's going in a time-out until I see the fix on some patch release notes
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Aug 16, 2018 22:42
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Angry Grimace posted:I don't get why they don't simply make them guaranteed rewards from various events that have individual card rewards. Like, if you spend the coins to go through a Quick Constructed, just throw a goddamn rare land out or make the rare lands much more likely to pop through those - it gets people playing and the rewards are at least guaranteed not to be total loving poo poo.. I feel like the people over the economy are applying paper economy logic. So much of what is still going on reeks of treating it like a TCG instead of what it is. Its going to make the game a flop if they don't pull up before launch.
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Aug 16, 2018 22:43
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Don't get defensive. It's one of the very unintuitive parts of stats, lots of people struggle with it. It's called the Clustering Illusion, but a lot of other cognitive biases feed into it too. The fact remains it is pretty likely. You can't use getting a streak of the same rare as evidence for speculating about a conspiracy that Arena has suppressed rates of dual lands.
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Aug 16, 2018 22:44
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At least we can all agree that I lose like 2/3 of my games to mana issues and that IS because of a glitch in Arena (and IRL.)
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Aug 16, 2018 22:54
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Tom Clancy is Dead posted:Don't get defensive. It's one of the very unintuitive parts of stats, lots of people struggle with it. It's called the Clustering Illusion, but a lot of other cognitive biases feed into it too. I don't know why so many people are arguing with the guy. 1/52^7 is so minuscule it very likely demonstrates a problem somewhere.
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Aug 16, 2018 23:08
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precision posted:Yes, I know how math works. There are like 20 people who post in this thread. That's not "much, much, much" higher. The thing about statistics is, the odds of a specific thing happening in the future is 1 in n, but the odds that something in the past happened in the past is 1 in 1.
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Aug 16, 2018 23:15
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Fuzzy Mammal posted:I don't know why so many people are arguing with the guy. 1/52^7 is so minuscule it very likely demonstrates a problem somewhere. This is a bad argument because the relevant probability is whether "something fishy occurs while I'm playing", not "something fishy occurs in these eight packs" However, the conclusion might still be right because you need an absurd number of packs opened to hit even a 1% chance of opening the same rare eight times in a row--something like 50 billion packs
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Aug 16, 2018 23:24
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of course the real answer is probably that he didn't actually open the same rare 8 packs in a row, just several of them in the same week but in my case opponents really do get turn 3 Tron 100% of the time
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Aug 16, 2018 23:29
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Fuzzy Mammal posted:I don't know why so many people are arguing with the guy. 1/52^7 is so minuscule it very likely demonstrates a problem somewhere. 1 is not 0
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Aug 16, 2018 23:30
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Fuzzy Mammal posted:I don't know why so many people are arguing with the guy. 1/52^7 is so minuscule it very likely demonstrates a problem somewhere. It's like winning the lottery twice. That isn't evidence that the lottery isn't random, it's evidence that given enough instances of a very low chance of an event happening, it eventually happens. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/03/this-north-carolina-woman-just-won-the-lottery-twice-in-one-day.html 1/52^7 is the chance that any given pack is followed by seven packs with the same rare. You need to multiply that chance by the number of packs that have at least 7 packs of the same kind following them to get the chance of someone pulling 8 of the same rares in a row. And as far as "this isn't random!" also by the chance of any other interesting pattern happening - 4 of one rare followed by 4 of another, alternating rares, 4 double rares in a row, etc. Tom Clancy is Dead fucked around with this message at 00:33 on Aug 17, 2018 |
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Aug 17, 2018 00:29
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It's also the exact same chance as any other non-interesting pattern of 8 rares in 8 packs.
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Aug 17, 2018 00:52
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