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Bird in a Blender
Nov 17, 2005

It's amazing what they can do with computers these days.

The real problem is that the offense needs to score more so that we aren't in a tight game every day. Cishek, Chavez, and Strop (before the injury) were getting used constantly. We need a blowout game so we can throw some scrubs out there to chew through some innings.

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Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute
Leaving Strop in is fine, what I don't get is why he was allowed to swing. If he takes 3 strikes and sits back down not only does he not get hurt, but the Cubs avoid a potential GIDP (which Strop ended up hitting into) and have another shot with 2 outs.

Kevlar v2.0
Dec 25, 2003

=^•⩊•^=

Daniel Murphy is slashing .195/.214/.366 in September, and he's reached base 2 times (1 single and 1 walk) in his last 18 PAs.

gently caress Daniel Murphy.

Popete
Oct 6, 2009

This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs

Grimey Drawer

Sydin posted:

Leaving Strop in is fine, what I don't get is why he was allowed to swing. If he takes 3 strikes and sits back down not only does he not get hurt, but the Cubs avoid a potential GIDP (which Strop ended up hitting into) and have another shot with 2 outs.

Or he hits single or he hits a ground ball for 1 out and scores a run, its always worth putting a ball in play because you never know the outcome. He actually hit the ball fairly well just right at Zimmerman. Oh well it happens, you can't assume a guy is gonna get injured running to 1st.

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute
You never know the outcome but you can reasonably guess that a relief pitcher who gets a number of AB's you can count on one hand per year isn't going to do much of anything at the plate. Honestly that he got injured is irrelevant to the fact that he shouldn't have been swinging in that situation. If you absolutely must leave Strop in because you don't trust anybody else in the pen to finish it (which, Rosario's eventual performance aside, was a good assumption) then let him watch three strikes go by (or hell, maybe four balls. You never know.) and pass it off to an actual hitter.

DeepDickPizza
Oct 11, 2012

THREE TIME! THREE TIME!
Personally, I wouldn't send the already overworked reliever out there to take an at-bat with a one-out, bases-loaded situation, but yeah, if you really, really don't trust anyone else to close that game out, ffs don't let him take that bat off his shoulder under any circumstances.

Dr. Fraiser Chain
May 18, 2004

Redlining my shit posting machine


Meh! Too conservative IMO. You got a bull pen full of guys you are paying to pitch. Yeah they haven't been doing amazing but let's stop pretending none of them will be in the majors next year. You had bases loaded 1 out you totally pinch hit there.

Niwrad
Jul 1, 2008

Popete posted:

Or he hits single or he hits a ground ball for 1 out and scores a run, its always worth putting a ball in play because you never know the outcome. He actually hit the ball fairly well just right at Zimmerman. Oh well it happens, you can't assume a guy is gonna get injured running to 1st.

Then he's running the bases after having pitched an inning and two-thirds.

The odds of a 33 year old reliever with 3 career at-bats getting a hit are incredibly low. Probably at or worse than the odds of him hitting into a double play. Have him stand there and not swing and then let the next hitter take a crack.

Now I personally would have put La Stella in for him because I think you're flirting with disaster having him go a 3rd inning and there is a decent chance that you'll score a run with 1 out and bases loaded with a real hitter up.

Popete
Oct 6, 2009

This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs

Grimey Drawer
You can make an argument either way sure. I personally would choose to keep Strop in there and I don't give a crap if he swings and tries to put a ball in play, Strop is actually not that bad of a hitter especially for a RP. If he stands there and strikes out you then need a single to score a run, on the flip side the chances of Strop getting an RBI on a ground out or fly out aren't that low. Sure you run the risk of him hitting into a double play, but again Tommy LaStella could also hit into a double play so it's really all a crap shoot. I have no problem with how that was handled.

Pulling Montgomery on the other hand I think was too premature, especially with how depleted the bullpen is right now and we don't have any off days coming up.

R.D. Mangles
Jan 10, 2004


strop has roped some balls in his very few plate appearances, I give him a 6 on the Zambrano Scale

Niwrad
Jul 1, 2008

https://twitter.com/sahadevsharma/status/1040714542303592450

Popete
Oct 6, 2009

This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs

Grimey Drawer
The time has come for elite closer Randy Rosario.

R.D. Mangles
Jan 10, 2004


the answer for closer is clear: Tyler Chatwood

Canned Sunshine
Nov 20, 2005

CAUTION: POST QUALITY UNDER CONSTRUCTION



R.D. Mangles posted:

the answer for closer is clear: Tyler Chatwood

He may walk the walk, but he’ll never balk!

tadashi
Feb 20, 2006


Joe Maddon is a genius

R.D. Mangles
Jan 10, 2004


im melting down

Popete
Oct 6, 2009

This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs

Grimey Drawer
Daniel Murphy sucks and I don't understand why we picked him up on just about every level.

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute
Went back to listen to the radio call and Pat Hughes called the gently caress out of that Happ HR.

R.D. Mangles
Jan 10, 2004


Sydin posted:

Went back to listen to the radio call and Pat Hughes called the gently caress out of that Happ HR.

do you have a link?

Atomizer
Jun 24, 2007



Popete posted:

Maddon shouldn't have taken Montgomery out early yesterday, but leaving Strop in to close out the game was %100 fine. I would have been annoyed if he pulled Strop in that situation because who the hell else would have come in? I mean Rosario ended up getting the job done, but you want your best guy in to close out a tight game.

I get everyone here hates Maddon, I don't particularly care either way but pretending like we all saw Strop getting hurt running to 1st is just confirmation bias.

Popete posted:

Or he hits single or he hits a ground ball for 1 out and scores a run, its always worth putting a ball in play because you never know the outcome. He actually hit the ball fairly well just right at Zimmerman. Oh well it happens, you can't assume a guy is gonna get injured running to 1st.

Oh man, if only there was some other time when Strop injured his leg running a short distance.... :rolleyes: (I can't figure out how to link to the specific video but I'm sure you can figure out what I'm referencing.)

Maybe you couldn't see an issue with Strop taking the AB but I had a bad feeling about it. Turns out I was right, unfortunately.

Popete posted:

You can make an argument either way sure. I personally would choose to keep Strop in there and I don't give a crap if he swings and tries to put a ball in play, Strop is actually not that bad of a hitter especially for a RP. If he stands there and strikes out you then need a single to score a run, on the flip side the chances of Strop getting an RBI on a ground out or fly out aren't that low. Sure you run the risk of him hitting into a double play, but again Tommy LaStella could also hit into a double play so it's really all a crap shoot. I have no problem with how that was handled.

Pulling Montgomery on the other hand I think was too premature, especially with how depleted the bullpen is right now and we don't have any off days coming up.

HE HAS A CAREER BATTING AVERAGE OF ZERO IN THE MAJORS!!! He was .207 in the minors! He was converted from SS specifically because he was a poor hitter!!!! :psyboom:

I agree with you about pulling Monty early (and then leaving Hamels in too long tonight) but jesus christ dude, Maddon seriously mishandled that situation with Strop!

DeepDickPizza
Oct 11, 2012

THREE TIME! THREE TIME!
I was watching the game on my phone at work and legit yelled at it when Strop came out to take that ab. Sending him out there was loving stupid well before he injured himself.

It's ok. Now a half dozen different guys can get saves in the next two weeks to prove how stupid it was. Or the Cubs can lose the division. Either way.

Miz Kriss
Mar 17, 2009

It's only an avatar if the Cubs get swept.
Why tf does each cub win have to be a nail biter?

Popete
Oct 6, 2009

This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs

Grimey Drawer
If everyone is this concerned and "had a bad feeling" about Strop then you should be advocating for the DH.

It's one of those situations that in hindsight it's easy to say that Strop shouldn't have swung or should have been pinch hit for, but in the moment I still think it was perfectly fine. You have a decent shot of Strop putting a ball in play and with only 1 out getting a run, that didn't happen and you literally had the worst possible outcome of a Strop AB happen.

I'll stop talking about this now. The Cubs are going to kill us all with anxiety well before this season ends anyways.

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

R.D. Mangles posted:

do you have a link?

I couldn't find it loving anywhere so I made it myself, which took actual effort (sorry the quality is so poo poo, my laptop is not great).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZeOfpevU-Q

Niwrad
Jul 1, 2008

Russell is not only starting but hitting 5th. I can't take this anymore.

Atomizer
Jun 24, 2007



Popete posted:

If everyone is this concerned and "had a bad feeling" about Strop then you should be advocating for the DH.

It's one of those situations that in hindsight it's easy to say that Strop shouldn't have swung or should have been pinch hit for, but in the moment I still think it was perfectly fine. You have a decent shot of Strop putting a ball in play and with only 1 out getting a run, that didn't happen and you literally had the worst possible outcome of a Strop AB happen.

I'll stop talking about this now. The Cubs are going to kill us all with anxiety well before this season ends anyways.

I'm not saying I had a bad feeling in hindsight, I'm saying I had the foresight because there was precedent and this would be the Cubsiest thing to happen, a serious injury at a critical point in the season.

You don't "have a decent shot" of Strop putting the ball in play because like I said, he has never done it before in MLB. He's not a hitter, he literally has no hits, no RBIs. Is there a first time for everything? Sure, Lester got his first HR after all. But possibility is not the same as probability, and it was unlikely that Strop would contribute offensively even it was technically possible. And like I said, I predicted the worst possible outcome, which came true, and it was completely preventable which is the worst part about it.

I am an advocate for the DH, by the way. It's against the spirit of the game, but it's better for its health, because even if players at every position are supposed to go on offense every half-inning, having terrible "hitters" flail around 3+ times a game is bad from a gameplay and spectator standpoint.

Sydin posted:

I couldn't find it loving anywhere so I made it myself, which took actual effort (sorry the quality is so poo poo, my laptop is not great).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZeOfpevU-Q

Thanks for the effort, although to be fair, "one swing of the bat..." comments are pretty ubiquitous.

Niwrad posted:

Russell is not only starting but hitting 5th. I can't take this anymore.

I agree with the sentiment, but it doesn't really matter with Cody "StriKeout King" Reed on the mound for the Reds. And of course Russell has one of the two hits so far. :rolleyes:

R.D. Mangles
Jan 10, 2004


Sydin posted:

I couldn't find it loving anywhere so I made it myself, which took actual effort (sorry the quality is so poo poo, my laptop is not great).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZeOfpevU-Q

awesome, thanks! when I was looking for it, I came across the twitter account, which I thought this thread might be interested in
https://twitter.com/pathughescalls?lang=en

Miz Kriss
Mar 17, 2009

It's only an avatar if the Cubs get swept.
Holy poo poo guys, I just won Cubs tickets at work. Don’t know which game it’ll be yet, and I’ll have to ask for time off in order to go, but drat am I excited to potentially get the Cubs anxiety in person.

Popete
Oct 6, 2009

This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs

Grimey Drawer

Atomizer posted:

I'm not saying I had a bad feeling in hindsight, I'm saying I had the foresight because there was precedent and this would be the Cubsiest thing to happen, a serious injury at a critical point in the season.

You don't "have a decent shot" of Strop putting the ball in play because like I said, he has never done it before in MLB. He's not a hitter, he literally has no hits, no RBIs. Is there a first time for everything? Sure, Lester got his first HR after all. But possibility is not the same as probability, and it was unlikely that Strop would contribute offensively even it was technically possible. And like I said, I predicted the worst possible outcome, which came true, and it was completely preventable which is the worst part about it.

I am an advocate for the DH, by the way. It's against the spirit of the game, but it's better for its health, because even if players at every position are supposed to go on offense every half-inning, having terrible "hitters" flail around 3+ times a game is bad from a gameplay and spectator standpoint.

Having the foresight of always predicting the worst possible outcome is peak Cubs posting so I guess you got that right.

Putting a ball in play does not mean he has to get a hit, in fact he actually DID put the ball in play it just happened to be sharply hit right at Zimmerman. It's not improbable that even a bad hitter puts a ball in play and Strop isn't that bad a hitter. He has a grand total of 4 plate appearances so using that as a metric to say he is a terrible hitter isn't great.

Mustached Demon
Nov 12, 2016

Miz Kriss posted:

Holy poo poo guys, I just won Cubs tickets at work. Don’t know which game it’ll be yet, and I’ll have to ask for time off in order to go, but drat am I excited to potentially get the Cubs anxiety in person.

Take baby aspirin every 3 innings.

Atomizer
Jun 24, 2007



Popete posted:

Having the foresight of always predicting the worst possible outcome is peak Cubs posting so I guess you got that right.

Putting a ball in play does not mean he has to get a hit, in fact he actually DID put the ball in play it just happened to be sharply hit right at Zimmerman. It's not improbable that even a bad hitter puts a ball in play and Strop isn't that bad a hitter. He has a grand total of 4 plate appearances so using that as a metric to say he is a terrible hitter isn't great.

I'm saying I analyzed the situation, determined the best and worst course of action, and remembered that the player in question had an ominous leg injury two years ago. The thing I thought would happen (inning-ending DP, no runs, player injury, have to use a different RP anyway,) did happen, and maybe my gut feeling is better than other people's but you had to realize that was a possibility regardless.

Bases loaded, 1 out in a 1-run game is a prime opportunity to add on with an experienced hitter, not a situation where you throw in a RP who has, as you said, FOUR career MLB PAs, and has already thrown 21 pitches over almost 2 innings.

Look at it this way: was putting Strop out there for a PA worth losing him for the rest of the season?

Popete
Oct 6, 2009

This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs

Grimey Drawer

Atomizer posted:

I'm saying I analyzed the situation, determined the best and worst course of action, and remembered that the player in question had an ominous leg injury two years ago. The thing I thought would happen (inning-ending DP, no runs, player injury, have to use a different RP anyway,) did happen, and maybe my gut feeling is better than other people's but you had to realize that was a possibility regardless.

Bases loaded, 1 out in a 1-run game is a prime opportunity to add on with an experienced hitter, not a situation where you throw in a RP who has, as you said, FOUR career MLB PAs, and has already thrown 21 pitches over almost 2 innings.

Look at it this way: was putting Strop out there for a PA worth losing him for the rest of the season?

You should see if the Cubs will hire your gut feeling cause that's a hell of a prediction to get right.

No in hindsight of course I wouldn't want Strop to swing in that situation. But if the same situation came up again today I would have Strop hit and I wouldn't care if he took a swing to try and put a ball in play.

Atomizer
Jun 24, 2007



Popete posted:

You should see if the Cubs will hire your gut feeling cause that's a hell of a prediction to get right.

No in hindsight of course I wouldn't want Strop to swing in that situation. But if the same situation came up again today I would have Strop hit and I wouldn't care if he took a swing to try and put a ball in play.

You know how in chess, players supposedly look X moves ahead, analyzing all the possible outcomes before making their move? That's the kind of thing you'd do in baseball too, specifically with regards to matchups, and in that situation there weren't even that many outcomes, especially if you group them together (e.g. all RBI hits and no outs are one outcome):
1) Strop gets on base (hit/walk/HBP,) scores 1+ runs, no outs, moves the line along
2) Strop strikes out, next batter gets a chance
3) Strop hits into a DP, inning over, no runs
Then there are future outcomes if the line moves along, but you also have to take into consideration an inexperienced RP on the basepaths, and injury is of course a possibility. When making the choice to PH for Strop you have to consider what could happen, what the odds are, and what you're asking of him, specifically, to throw a 3rd inning when you do have other options in the pen.

That's how I figured that the best choice was to have La Stella PH, because not only is he really loving good at it, he's statistically infinitely more likely (given Strop's career batting performance) to get a positive outcome (note that 2 of the 3 outcomes above result in outs) and Strop's already pitched almost 2 full innings that game already, PLUS he has a relevant injury history. A second option if you really wanted Strop to pitch again would be to tell him not to swing and only record one out (at worst, scenario 2 above) which would've precluded any injury due to sprinting (unless the next guy puts it in play) and given the next guy a shot, avoiding the very real possibility of a DP. So yes, I was able to predict what would happen based on an analysis of the situation, and it's not even all that difficult to figure out.

I'm all for pitchers becoming better hitters, but it wasn't the right decision in that game for several reasons:
- Player with a leg injury concern
- close game with a non-fresh pitcher coming up in the order
- prime opportunity to add on with bases loaded, 1 out
- must-win late-season game in a playoff race is too crucial to risk losing vital players, especially with a "batter" with 0 career ML RBIs.

Ultimately, none of this matters because it's just a loving game, but given how stats-driven baseball is, analyzing and discussing the stuff above is what makes it especially interesting to spectators like who don't (can't) play the game (although I believe you play IIRC, but that's besides the point.)

Kevlar v2.0
Dec 25, 2003

=^•⩊•^=

Miz Kriss posted:

Why tf does each cub win have to be a nail biter?

Another one :ohdear:

Popete
Oct 6, 2009

This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs

Grimey Drawer
Predicting Strop was going to injure himself running to first is ridiculous, pitchers have to run to first all the time to cover the bag. It was a freak injury that no one is going to factor into their decision, because it's such an unpredictable thing as to be basically irrelevant. Saying you saw this coming like some baseball Rain Man is a bit silly.

Saying you don't think Strop should hit there because you think having him pitch a 3rd inning would be bad is totally legit, so would the reason being because you think LaStella scoring is that much more likely as to be more valuable than having Strop close out the game. I'll definitely concede those as valid alternatives to Strop hitting. But saying it was obvious Strop was going to get injured is going a bit overboard.

Popete
Oct 6, 2009

This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs

Grimey Drawer
:siren: Milwaukee has lost a game:siren:

Jen X
Sep 29, 2014

To bring light to the darkness, whether that darkness be ignorance, injustice, apathy, or stagnation.

Popete posted:

:siren: Milwaukee has lost a game:siren:

!

BigBallChunkyTime
Nov 25, 2011

Kyle Schwarber: World Series hero, Beefy Lad, better than you.

Illegal Hen
Magic number to clinch a playoff berth: 8

Magic number to clinch the division: 12

Jen X
Sep 29, 2014

To bring light to the darkness, whether that darkness be ignorance, injustice, apathy, or stagnation.

Your Taint posted:

Magic number to clinch a playoff berth: 8

Magic number to clinch the division: 12

:pray:

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Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

Popete posted:

:siren: Milwaukee has lost a game:siren:

Came here to make this exact same post

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