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ReidRansom posted:I'd like to know more about their LV screen. It really sounds like Beto is going to be brining a lot of new voters to the polls, but I'm hardly qualified to say that's anything more than just a gut feeling, and even then I wouldn't know what sort of percentage change that would make. Essentially I'm just projecting my hopes onto that poll and that's pretty much worthless. If you're looking for false hope to latch on to, Trump had about a 1 in 4 shot according to Nate, if I remember right.
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Sep 18, 2018 22:39
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Dameius posted:If you're looking for false hope to latch on to, Trump had about a 1 in 4 shot according to Nate, if I remember right. I don't think that questioning the validity of the LV model is false hope. No one ever thought this was going to be a slam dunk. And one poll that's using a questionable LV model (and let's be honest all LV's are questionable as they rely on assumptions that may or may not be true in any particular context). People just need to keep on keeping on, not pay attention to the polls and pay attention to getting people registered and to the only polls that matter, the one November 6th. Besides even if Beto doesn't win, at this point he has the national profile and name recognition for a credible White House run in 2020. If nothing else, Beto's campaign is siphoning off Republican resources from other more vulnerable races and that can't do anything other than help Democrats.
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Sep 18, 2018 22:47
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Beto can flip enough Texas House and maybe Texas Senate seats to make Republicans sweat. If Dan Patrick is denied his legislative power to make whatever law he wants in the State Senate, then thats enough for me.
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Sep 18, 2018 22:52
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538 ranks Quinnipiac really highly. That said, it's just one poll you loving babies. All the other polls say something different.
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Sep 18, 2018 22:52
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PostNouveau posted:538 ranks Quinnipiac really highly. They give them an A-, which is pretty good but not top tier. For the number of polls they do, they're pretty darn good. Only a handful of pollsters with even half as many polls are above a B. But yeah, whatever you want to read into it, just do what the thread title says.
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Sep 18, 2018 23:40
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I'll start of by saying that I am a big Beto fan. I've gone to 5 organized events here in Austin, done one phone bank and one block walk for him here. That being said, dude is not going to win. Texas republicans loving show up and vote. He will not win, but getting close accomplishes a lot. It makes Cruz look really, really bad to have such a close race in TEXAS. It draws money from republican races elsewhere. It shows the democratic leadership that fielding real candidates, and spending money here might actually not be a complete lost cause in the future. loving get out and vote in November. Beto has come out of nowhere as far as name recognition to most of the state, and he has come out STRONG. Every vote sends a message.
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Sep 18, 2018 23:45
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Doom Rooster posted:I'll start of by saying that I am a big Beto fan. I've gone to 5 organized events here in Austin, done one phone bank and one block walk for him here. That being said, dude is not going to win. Texas republicans loving show up and vote. He will not win, but getting close accomplishes a lot. It makes Cruz look really, really bad to have such a close race in TEXAS. It draws money from republican races elsewhere. It shows the democratic leadership that fielding real candidates, and spending money here might actually not be a complete lost cause in the future. It took Roy Moore being a kiddy diddler for Doug Jones to squeak out a win. Beto ain't winning short of Cruz blowing up in some spectacular way which is very unlikely. Doesn't mean you shouldn't vote. It means the opposite!
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Sep 18, 2018 23:58
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XH7JPJfgkUw&hd=1
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Sep 19, 2018 00:00
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spoon daddy posted:It took Roy Moore being a kiddy diddler for Doug Jones to squeak out a win. Beto ain't winning short of Cruz blowing up in some spectacular way which is very unlikely. Doesn't mean you shouldn't vote. It means the opposite! Jones won on a campaign that actually bothered to focus on drumming up Democratic turnout, the kiddy diddling left Moore virtually unphased.
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Sep 19, 2018 01:33
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https://twitter.com/KHOU/status/1042219313963393030
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Sep 19, 2018 02:13
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1.) The poll isn't great 2.) It's just one poll, even from a source as good as Quinnipac. I'll start to seriously sweat if their next one ALSO has Beto well behind the MOE.
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Sep 19, 2018 02:23
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polls are good but they're not psychic, don't let them make you either complacent or hopeless.
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Sep 19, 2018 02:55
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Anything under 10% on the final vote count is a strategic victory. Joking despair is how every single closing in the polls was met by this thread, so it goes to show how much actual hope Beto managed to kindle in y'all that the reaction is now this.
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Sep 19, 2018 03:07
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the TDP is the most worthless state party in the country https://twitter.com/cd_hooks/status/1042223674223419394
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Sep 19, 2018 03:16
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The Florida Democratic Party runs failed Republicans on the ticket
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Sep 19, 2018 03:21
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Yeah for real, we’ll always have Florida.
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Sep 19, 2018 03:35
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They need to stop letting Pete Gallego run for stuff. And also figure out why they can’t win these gimme races in San Antonio specifically.
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Sep 19, 2018 03:47
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How many registered voters were eligible? Turnout was probably pathetic
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Sep 19, 2018 03:51
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You gotta be loving kidding me man
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Sep 19, 2018 03:57
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Hey look, more polls https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-tx07-1.html This one is actually kinda interesting because it shows its breakdown very well. quote:WHO WILL VOTE? EST. TURNOUT OUR POLL RESULT
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Sep 19, 2018 04:45
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The Democrats won Bexar. Other counties were a lot harder.
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Sep 19, 2018 06:27
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TropicalCoke posted:The Democrats won Bexar. Other counties were a lot harder. Barely. 7% turnout in Bexar. Makes me sad.
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Sep 19, 2018 06:49
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https://twitter.com/theplumlinegs/status/1042387721241722882?s=12 Beto’s back baby
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Sep 19, 2018 13:43
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There is no world where both Beto and Heller win
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Sep 19, 2018 14:01
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lmao that quinnipiac is way more accurate 
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Sep 19, 2018 14:01
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i say swears online posted:lmao 538 rates Ipsos a B+ and Quinnipiac an A- They ain' that far off each other.
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Sep 19, 2018 14:08
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Maybe the the truth is somewhere in the mid-  I'm not even sure what kind of polling I want to see more of, whatever kind gives people enough reason to goddamn show up.
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Sep 19, 2018 14:11
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I think in Texas you want to see polls with Beto up because Texas Dems usually get their asses beat. Beto leading in polls is likely to spur more excitement because it feels different this time. I don't think Democrats in Texas are ever likely to go "Oh, the Democrat is going to win I don't have to vote"
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Sep 19, 2018 14:14
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Folks, it's the aggregate that's important
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Sep 19, 2018 14:22
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https://twitter.com/SriPKulkarni/status/1042157504069857280
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Sep 19, 2018 14:31
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It still has the zomato watermark. 
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Sep 19, 2018 14:42
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https://twitter.com/SamuelMTaylor/status/1042249877642780673 Cheers to Texas GOP JEERS to Texas dems
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Sep 19, 2018 14:47
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i say swears online posted:lmao all polls are bullshit
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Sep 19, 2018 14:49
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PostNouveau posted:I think in Texas you want to see polls with Beto up because Texas Dems usually get their asses beat. Beto leading in polls is likely to spur more excitement because it feels different this time. I don't think Democrats in Texas are ever likely to go "Oh, the Democrat is going to win I don't have to vote" Not anytime soon that's for sure
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Sep 19, 2018 14:58
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All Beto needs to do is stay in the margin of error and I'll feel pretty decent heading into November.
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Sep 19, 2018 15:06
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Today in completely unsurprising news https://twitter.com/statesman/status/1042423998506786816
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Sep 19, 2018 15:47
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Badger of Basra posted:Today in completely unsurprising news Well, no more guns for him, hopefully.
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Sep 19, 2018 15:52
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Badger of Basra posted:Today in completely unsurprising news Lmao In further lmaos https://twitter.com/lmcgaughy/status/1042393658258087937 It was stuff like "breaking: Kavanaugh's former classmate said he pulled her hair in the 5th grade" https://twitter.com/Forrest4Trees/status/1042431776491294722 
zoux fucked around with this message at 16:20 on Sep 19, 2018 |
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Sep 19, 2018 16:00
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I went out on a second date with a librarian last night, and she brought me a present: a voter registration card. We talked about politics during our first date which is how I found out I was saying Beto's name wrong (it's BET-o not BEET-o). I filled out the card when I got home, and stuck it in the mailbox. I guess I'm participating in the democratic process as party of society again...
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Sep 19, 2018 16:44
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The Texas Democratic Party is right now hard at work brainstorming ways to nominate Pete Gallego to run for every race in the state.
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Sep 19, 2018 17:14
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