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Previous thread (archived for some reason)quote:"Alongside ruined roučs with questionable means of support and of dubious origin, degenerate and adventurous scions of the bourgeoisie, there were vagabonds, discharged soldiers, discharged convicts, runaway galley slaves, swindlers, charlatans, lazzaroni, pickpockets, tricksters, gamblers, procurers, brothel keepers, porters, literati, organ grinders, rag-pickers, knife-grinders, tinkers, beggars; in short, the entirely undefined, disintegrating mass, thrown hither and yon, which the French call... quote:What is PredictIt? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMva00IO0zA&t=20s BrutalistMcDonalds has issued a correction as of 20:16 on Sep 21, 2018 |
# ? Sep 21, 2018 19:27 |
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# ? Jun 10, 2024 12:10 |
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Anyways talk about your bets. I've done pretty well this year betting on progressive underdogs in House races and on AMLO in the Mexican elections when he was underpriced. Things are kinda quiet for me now though, since I don't bet on poll markets [NEVER BET ON POLLS] unless things are already assured a few hours before midnight and I can make a guaranteed few bucks (hey, it'll buy a few tacos). My general strategy, to the extent I have one, is to bet small amounts in a variety of different races. I bet in some risky ones, but mainly I spread my moolah out in a lot of "safe" markets in which I'm only guaranteed a small return but which compound over time. For instance, Debbie Stabenow winning her Senate race in Michigan is priced at 86c which is actually pretty low for someone guaranteed to win unless an asteroid lands on her. She was even priced lower I believe primarily because MAGAs -- and they are all over PredictIt -- think the Michigan black vote will all go for John James. Betting on MAGA stupidity can be a path to success -- of course, the MAGAs are right some of the time (2016) so you could lose your rear end too. Other goons might have different strategies. Some won't bet on safe races at all. Some will only bet if they can make a lot of money, but they take a lot of risks, and I don't know their secrets. Right now some of the hot markets are over Kavanaugh. This might be an opportunity if the Republicans dump him.
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# ? Sep 21, 2018 19:41 |
Thanks for making this thread! So I'm still figuring our PredictIt myself, and I'm wondering what's the highest buy you can make and still turn a profit. I bought some "Trump approval rating by this date" for 89˘ just a few hours before it closed and ended up winning. It wasn't much, but still a pretty great ROI for a few hours time. Are stuff like guaranteed 95˘ markets worth buying into for the small but consistent ROI. Why doesn't everyone just buy gobs of closing-soon 99˘ shares and turn a small-but-steady profit that way? literally this big has issued a correction as of 20:15 on Sep 21, 2018 |
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# ? Sep 21, 2018 20:12 |
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I'm gonna do this IRL, time to get a Moleskine
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# ? Sep 21, 2018 20:22 |
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literally this big posted:Thanks for making this thread! at least that's it for me, since i don't gamble with a lot of money. i usually don't really bother above 90c unless it's on election night and the AP has called it. or like the "trump approval rating" right before it closes. i've done that over and over again over a period of months, and the return has been pretty good. like i said it compounds over time. be careful though. i tread ***really*** carefully with any kind of poll or approval market. also playing swings is really risky. on election nights when the returns start rolling in, the markets go haywire because people are placing bets on early results and so on -- you could easily fall in a hole doing that. BrutalistMcDonalds has issued a correction as of 20:29 on Sep 21, 2018 |
# ? Sep 21, 2018 20:23 |
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I have a friend that's really into predictit, but I find the fees to be pretty ridiculous. It's still fun to check when there's some news, but the odds are always bad with the fees factored in. I did the IEM when it was active. It was a blast because I knew some of the people I was trading with personally, so there was a lot of lunch buying . I wish there was a prediction market that did weather futures. E: I did try to predict the number of tweets for politicians, but there's just not enough samples. It was a bit uncomfortable how well you could determine their regular schedule and such though. dougdrums has issued a correction as of 11:34 on Sep 22, 2018 |
# ? Sep 22, 2018 11:27 |
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lmao glad I bought Kavanaugh NO shares
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# ? Sep 24, 2018 00:13 |
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BrutalistMcDonalds posted:lmao glad I bought Kavanaugh NO shares how volatile has that market been?
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# ? Sep 24, 2018 00:51 |
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Isn't the plot of the bad movie Pi (sorry, π) someone trying to create a machine that could compute the winning bet on predictit.org?
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# ? Sep 24, 2018 00:51 |
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El_Elegante posted:how volatile has that market been? them
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# ? Sep 24, 2018 03:34 |
a few more rape accusations and you can stick a fork in him!
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# ? Sep 24, 2018 05:53 |
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Somebody message me when Avenatti goes up for sale 2020 dem nom winner/general winner, I'll buy as many of those for a penny as I can afford.
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# ? Sep 27, 2018 07:21 |
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so who's betting on ? market seems to think Murkowski is a no while the rest of the GOP falls in line, and Manchin breaks ranks Murkowski sounded like Collins yesterday when asked about Kav overtunring Roe though, which makes me think she's a yes it is difficult to imagine only one Republican breaking rank on this, seems like it would have to be 2 or nothing to me
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# ? Oct 5, 2018 16:53 |
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who the gently caress are these people buying booker and klobuchar why is harris ranked first
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# ? Oct 12, 2018 22:54 |
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Amy Klobuchar is really good at getting mentioned as a possible candidate for president, or cabinet nominee. It is like her single, sole talent in this life. I just started predictit and I have a dumb question: I have allocated all of my money into contracts, so I have a zero cash balance right now. I want to set up some orders on the shares I have to sell at $.10 higher than I bought them, however, when I try to do that, it tells me I need to add money to my account. Do I have to have a cash balance to put up a sell order for shares I own at a higher price than I paid for them? It seems like the 10% fee could come out of the money when/if the shares sell.
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# ? Oct 12, 2018 23:54 |
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Kazak_Hstan posted:Amy Klobuchar is really good at getting mentioned as a possible candidate for president, or cabinet nominee. It is like her single, sole talent in this life. if it's a "linked market" (like any election one where there are 10 candidates you can bet on but only one can win) then cashing out one position can actually increase the amount you have at risk. if you buy a second contract in a market that hedges your bets (limits your maximum losses) they actually give you a credit to bet more and if you want to un-hedge your bets you need to cover that with cash
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# ? Oct 13, 2018 00:16 |
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This is just a simple ten shares of "no" on ted cruz winning. I don't have any shares on "yes." I bought the shares at $.55 and want to put up a sell order for them at $.65. But when I try to do that it prompts me to put more money in.
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# ? Oct 13, 2018 00:36 |
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Shear Modulus posted:
PI markets that won't resolve for years generally self-select for idiots. None of the ~serious players~ bother with that garbage.
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# ? Oct 13, 2018 00:44 |
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Shear Modulus posted:
and why is there no option for hillary
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# ? Oct 13, 2018 00:51 |
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Former DILF posted:and why is there no option for hillary theres no option for basta either which come the gently caress on
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# ? Oct 13, 2018 01:02 |
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who's kamala harris?
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# ? Oct 13, 2018 01:03 |
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Jon Joe posted:who's kamala harris? ACAB
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# ? Oct 13, 2018 01:06 |
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shes a tough on crime succ dem
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# ? Oct 13, 2018 01:07 |
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Former DILF posted:shes a tough on crime succ dem *: tough on crime does not apply to financial fraud by future trump cabinet members
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# ? Oct 13, 2018 01:18 |
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the $25 i put in is currently down $1.30 jesus christ this is even worse than fantasy football i'm stressing over losing less than two mcdonald's hamburgers come on beto get a good poll, I need to make .9($.40) off your race
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# ? Oct 13, 2018 20:53 |
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Kazak_Hstan posted:the $25 i put in is currently down $1.30 Toss in $500, you'll be feeling gr8 in no time.
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# ? Oct 13, 2018 23:16 |
Is it just me, or is the best way to use Predict It to click on the Closing Soon tab and buying easy wins like "Trump's Approval Rating on [Date]" and "Dem's Congressional Edge on [Date]"? It seems pretty easy to tell when there's no more chance of another poll getting published that day to change the numbers, and then just buy in on the correct result. The faster / riskier you are, the better price you can get in at, but you can pretty easily get in at ~80˘ for an easy profit in a very short time. Even if you buy in relatively late, like at 90˘, that's still a next-day guaranteed 11% profit. I'm making 17% from a Trump Approval Rating market I bought in to earlier today. I waited until I felt comfortable that there wouldn't be any more updates for the day and bought in at 85˘. That's +17˘ for every $1 I bought in to that market, with an ~8 hour turnaround time. These markets seem extremely low-risk, high-profit. It's insane.
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# ? Nov 3, 2018 10:46 |
I'm looking forward to the results of this one https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4823/Who-will-NYT-confirm-as-anonymous-op-ed-author-in-2018 Fiona Hill seems like an odd choice to me tho
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# ? Nov 4, 2018 07:08 |
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In addition to raising $38M or whatever, Beto has made me $1.30. Hell yeah!
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# ? Nov 5, 2018 08:25 |
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there are seriously no goons playing pi on its single biggest day yet?
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# ? Nov 6, 2018 16:02 |
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I put the $8 I had left over from 2016 into the expected outcomes
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# ? Nov 6, 2018 16:09 |
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sad!
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# ? Nov 6, 2018 16:19 |
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Abel Wingnut posted:there are seriously no goons playing pi on its single biggest day yet? friend, literally my entire invested wealth ($25, which has grown to $25.83) is in pi and [clap hands empjis] I am nervous today!
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# ? Nov 6, 2018 16:29 |
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I might never be able to retire but I *am* a very powerful level 2 prognosticator.
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# ? Nov 6, 2018 16:30 |
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its cute how predictit says im a level something expert because ive been positive on the majority of my bets but overall am bigly in the hole thanks to crooked hillary
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# ? Nov 6, 2018 16:55 |
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I put $200 on various pro GOP bets
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# ? Nov 6, 2018 18:40 |
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PredictIt with some clever marketing in their email blasts today
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# ? Nov 6, 2018 18:58 |
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Shear Modulus posted:its cute how predictit says im a level something expert because ive been positive on the majority of my bets but overall am bigly in the hole thanks to crooked hillary the stock market is like that too lol
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# ? Nov 6, 2018 19:40 |
I made a few cents by selling my Nikki Haley NYT Op Ed shares, and I put a lot of money into the Bundestag dissolving by next year. I think I have a winner.
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# ? Nov 6, 2018 21:57 |
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# ? Jun 10, 2024 12:10 |
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Always remember the Republican strongholds of Dutch West Michigan will report before the majority of the population of Michigan which resides in the very Democratic Detroit area. Tonight was a good night if you took that early call Stabenow money after doubling up from early returns showing John James ever had a chance (HA HA) and played the swings in Arizona on the low end and then got scared and traded out after a few cents in Connecticut. Seriously, can someone explain what the H happened in the CT Gov market tonight? Not complaining about my choices this evening but it seems like there was a lot to be had in that market I was oblivious to. Also, weed is now legal in Michigan by a landslide, but the predictit knew that a long time ago.
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# ? Nov 7, 2018 06:32 |