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This is an example of a best case scenario physically possible:quote:* By 2100, global mean temperature is on average 0.5°C warmer than it was in 2018 Again, that's a best case scenario. Compared to a worse case scenario here, due to inaction by the 2030s we're seeing effects like: quote:* Starting with an intense El Niño-La Niña phase in the 2030s, several catastrophic years occur while global temperature warming starts to approach 2°C. That's just the 2030 impacts. By 2100 the worse case scenario is even more dire: quote:* Global mean warming reaches 3°C by 2100 but is not yet stabilized despite major decreases in yearly CO2 emissions, as a net-zero CO2 emissions budget could not yet be achieved and because of the long life-time of CO2 concentrations (Source: SR15, Chapter 3 - Cross-Chapter Box 8, Table 1)
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Oct 8, 2018 21:07
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StabbinHobo posted:more of your screamingly stupid wrongness In the United States they absolutely are. Health care costs twice what it does compared to any other modern country and it's an entirely for profit enterprise. Many people do live in apartments but few can afford to live and the same area so bicycling is not an option. Mass transit is not an option either outside of a few metro areas that also tend to be also the least affordable. Oh and when you say birth control I'm assuming you mean voluntary not compulsory because the ICC considers the later a crime against humanity and those are bad.
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Oct 8, 2018 21:10
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Trabisnikof posted:This is an example of a best case scenario physically possible: 
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Oct 8, 2018 21:12
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So, as a 35 year old male living in St Louis, what can I do to 1) help mitigate these things for my immediate loved ones and 2) help mitigate locally and/or globally?
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Oct 8, 2018 21:13
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Saxophone posted:So, as a 35 year old male living in St Louis, what can I do to 1) help mitigate these things for my immediate loved ones and 2) help mitigate locally and/or globally? Vote Democrats into office. That's the most immediate and impactful thing an American can do right now.
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Oct 8, 2018 21:16
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Saxophone posted:So, as a 35 year old male living in St Louis, what can I do to 1) help mitigate these things for my immediate loved ones and 2) help mitigate locally and/or globally? Be politically active, especially at the local level. Even if you're politically limited in actively changing the economy you can help prepare your community for the damage. And I mean beyond just electoral politics too. Invasive species and rainfall changes will either destroy local agriculture or force it to shift its practices. Flooding will mean communities (especially poor ones) will be at risk for increasingly frequent disasters. You can help in education, community resilience, and local adaptation year-round and not just on election day. Trabisnikof fucked around with this message at 21:20 on Oct 8, 2018 |
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Oct 8, 2018 21:18
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How are u posted:Vote Democrats into office. That's the most immediate and impactful thing an American can do right now. The funny thing is that this has almost no measurable impact on climate issues whatsoever, the Democrats are absolutely worthless. Anyways uh: 1) Don't have kids and try to make enough money to move to New Zealand before North America becomes politically unstable 2) Nothing
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Oct 8, 2018 21:19
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ChairMaster posted:The funny thing is that this has almost no measurable impact on climate issues whatsoever, the Democrats are absolutely worthless. You're mistaking insufficient for meaningless. The Clean Power Plan alone had a meaningful impact by shutting down coal plants. It was insufficient but not meaningless. Likewise, helping your neighbors build a dike is an insufficient response as a society, but it isn't meaningless to your community's resilience to climate change.
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Oct 8, 2018 21:23
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ChairMaster posted:The funny thing is that this has almost no measurable impact on climate issues whatsoever, the Democrats are absolutely worthless. Is everything really this utterly awful and bleak or is this thread just going full on "Mad Max is coming!" Also 1) Why New Zealand and 2) Won't it just overpopulate/overcrowd?
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Oct 8, 2018 21:23
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NZ is where the peaceniks moved during the cold war and dipshits are building bunkers there because they're cargo culting the dumb bunker people from the cold war who were reenactong bad movies.
Big Hubris fucked around with this message at 21:29 on Oct 8, 2018 |
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Oct 8, 2018 21:27
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Saxophone posted:Is everything really this utterly awful and bleak or is this thread just going full on "Mad Max is coming!" By utterly awful and bleak, do you mean the idea that there's literally nothing we can do to make a difference at this point? Because yes, that's pretty much the case. Physically it is still possible to prevent the collapse of global human civilization or world peace to the degree that it exists, but politically it is not. The news article that you probably read about the new IPCC report that made you interested enough to come to this thread will very soon be swept away in the news cycle and most people, possibly including yourself, will forget it ever happened and things will continue as normal. Saxophone posted:Also 1) Why New Zealand and 2) Won't it just overpopulate/overcrowd? New Zealand is a geographically isolated country that will likely be able to keep itself fed to an okay enough degree that they probably won't collapse from internal pressure. It has a better chance at flying under the radar of outside pressure due to the fact that any country that wants their resources will have such a larger population that NZ makes for an unappealing target anyways, due to the small reward. I don't know what you mean by the second question, NZ's immigration policies are pretty standard, there's no reason they should be overcrowded before the poo poo hits the fan for real. ChairMaster fucked around with this message at 22:01 on Oct 8, 2018 |
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Oct 8, 2018 21:32
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Trabisnikof posted:You're mistaking insufficient for meaningless. The Clean Power Plan alone had a meaningful impact by shutting down coal plants. It was insufficient but not meaningless. This is the best the Democrats have to offer: https://twitter.com/SenWarren/status/1049339993183989760 They're worthless, just being better than the Republicans does not mean that anyone should count on them to do anything meaningful at all.
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Oct 8, 2018 21:47
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I like how 2100 is still the only future date we seem to care about. It's quite possible that my children will live past that date, maybe we should be thinking a little bit longer term? Anyway, I think I've reached the point where this thread and news in general is detrimental to my wellbeing. What more can I do than vote green, live green and shout down/shame climate deniers when I meet them IRL? If the human race wants to destroy itself then it's clear my tiny voice will not make a difference. It's not also necessary for me to constantly bombard myself with the depressing truth of the situation. Unbookmarked.
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Oct 8, 2018 21:51
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poo poo as long as I'm posting here I may as well explain that Mad Max is not representative of the future, nor does anyone in this thread really envision a future that looks similar to it. The government is not going to just disappear, as things get worse and worse, governments are going to either collapse individually or go full-on fascist with the goal of invading other countries to take their poo poo. Computers are still going to exist, there's still going to be plenty of humans around, but poo poo is going to go very bad all over the world. Canada, where I live now, would probably be somewhat secure if we were not joined at the hip with the most powerful country in human history that will also likely see an internal refugee crisis of unprecedented magnitude in my lifetime. As it is, I plan on moving away before Florida is underwater or California runs out of fresh water entirely or New York is destroyed by hurricanes.
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Oct 8, 2018 21:53
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Chadzok posted:I like how 2100 is still the only future date we seem to care about. It's quite possible that my children will live past that date, maybe we should be thinking a little bit longer term? Do what you can personally (in many cases, diet and bicycle, you'll feel better anyway) and vote for the best choices you can.
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Oct 8, 2018 21:53
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awww come on!!
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Oct 8, 2018 21:54
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Someone tell Putin a warmer Siberia will actually be a mosquito wasteland with all the puddles from ex-permafrost.
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Oct 8, 2018 21:56
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Saxophone posted:Is everything really this utterly awful and bleak or is this thread just going full on "Mad Max is coming!" A little of A & a little of B if you ask me. It's going to be pretty bad but I doubt we'll go extinct.
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Oct 8, 2018 22:03
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I always knew this poo poo was dire, I just didn't expect in the next 10-20 years dire. I thought maybe I could responsibly not have children, try to make the place better than I found it and die before things got really hairy. Which sounds kinda fygm of me, but unless I can magically invent carbon scrubbers that act ridiculously quickly, I don't see a way out. I'm 35 and overweight, realistically, I'm at the half point of my life anyway. I was just sort of hoping I could die in relative-ish comfort. Maybe I'm just dealing with the termanality of it all. I just want to go squeeze my wife really hard. I don't think I could realistically move to NZ. Maybe somewhere within the US, but yeah. I'm also probably in full "aware of own mortality" mode and freaked that I'm gonna wind up starving in the desert that I'm.assuming the Midwest will become.
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Oct 8, 2018 22:07
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This thread's been through the human extinction derail a dozen times, it comes down to whether or not the CO2 we're putting into the atmosphere will be able to acidify the ocean quickly enough to drive the phytoplankton to extinction and make it so that we don't have enough oxygen to survive. There's no other mechanism that could really put an end to all human life on the planet. It's unlikely that that's going to happen, but if it did I'm under the impression that we'd still have a couple hundred years before we all died out anyways. It's not really the main focus here.
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Oct 8, 2018 22:08
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Saxophone posted:I always knew this poo poo was dire, I just didn't expect in the next 10-20 years dire. I thought maybe I could responsibly not have children, try to make the place better than I found it and die before things got really hairy. Which sounds kinda fygm of me, but unless I can magically invent carbon scrubbers that act ridiculously quickly, I don't see a way out. Whatever the mechanism of your death ends up being, it won't be directly related to the climate, you shouldn't worry too much about ending up in a Mad Max desert with wasteland raiders coming to kill and eat you. A more realistic worry would be political violence, but if you're white there's a good chance that you'll be able to escape that alright. Just don't have kids and you'll probably be fine, times are going to be hard but your life is still gonna be way better than the majority of people throughout history and certainly better than those in the near future.
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Oct 8, 2018 22:11
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So if homo sapiens go extinct in the next couple of centuries, the biosphere slowly heals and another intelligent life form arises in a few million years, will they be hosed and unable to advance technologically because we've used up most of the resources rolling around in our vomit? Or will the monumental amount of garbage we leave behind actually aid them in not making the same mistakes? Maybe the great filter is that the first civilisation on a world almost always fails and the successor (if any) is unable or unwilling to undertake massive resource intensive projects visible from space? Or am I misunderstanding the situation and we don't actually 'waste' anything unless we shoot it into space and all those metals and other useful stuff will just subsume into the crust with the rest of our trash legacy and just be ready for mining again in a few million years? Or maybe getting through industrialisation without marrying capitalism is the great filter? Or capitalism is a hack specific to our dumb monkey brains and other species don't railroad themselves into a blind alley filled with feces trying to make a bigger number? Where do you draw the line between 'you are depressed because sadbrains are giving you an inaccurate view of reality' and 'you are depressed because you get to see both the high point and collapse of your entire civilisation'? Oh and just FYI I live in New Zealand and I'm not sure if it'll make any difference as I suspect Australia is only two steps behind the US on the path to full fash and taking over our country to use it as a bread basket would be pretty easy for them.
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Oct 8, 2018 22:13
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The only moral extinction is my extinction.quote:Also 1) Why New Zealand and 2) Won't it just overpopulate/overcrowd? Everyone keeps reading articles about rich people buying properties in NZ and extrapolating that this means they should go to NZ also. Re #2: the trick is to get in early and then pull up the ladder behind you, so that you're safe when the borders close. Bring your butler, too, because otherwise you might have to set your own table from time to time. quote:So if homo sapiens go extinct in the next couple of centuries, the biosphere slowly heals and another intelligent life form arises in a few million years, will they be hosed and unable to advance technologically because we've used up most of the resources rolling around in our vomit? Nah, because they'll be winged dolphin-stoats and explore the deep instead of using rockets. My magic eight ball says so. Sundae fucked around with this message at 22:25 on Oct 8, 2018 |
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Oct 8, 2018 22:16
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Saxophone posted:I always knew this poo poo was dire, I just didn't expect in the next 10-20 years dire. I thought maybe I could responsibly not have children, try to make the place better than I found it and die before things got really hairy. Which sounds kinda fygm of me, but unless I can magically invent carbon scrubbers that act ridiculously quickly, I don't see a way out. Don't worry mate, just do what you can to not gently caress future generations over & enjoy your life... I'm 48 & in 20yrs I'll probably be dead, you like me will miss the worst of it.
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Oct 8, 2018 22:19
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Slavvy posted:So if homo sapiens go extinct in the next couple of centuries...
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Oct 8, 2018 22:19
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Reading and reflecting on this report, the political/soon to be environmental situation in Brasil and seeing an FB post from a CHUD aligned contact with her fellow boomers around a raging back patio fire pit saying they are ready for fall despite the temperature in the 80s is leading to tightness in my chest. I've got a two year old downstairs who means the world to me as anyone with kids can attest and my wife wants another. I do too, but.... My child makes me realize how finite the days are and to have this constant reinforcement in the news of what awaits and to see her sparkling eyes oblivious to what awaits pains me. I do not think I am well. It is just a small relief to type it out and not keep it internalized.
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Oct 8, 2018 22:19
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Slavvy posted:So if homo sapiens go extinct in the next couple of centuries, the biosphere slowly heals and another intelligent life form arises in a few million years, will they be hosed and unable to advance technologically because we've used up most of the resources rolling around in our vomit? Or will the monumental amount of garbage we leave behind actually aid them in not making the same mistakes? The planet's got an expiry date of a few hundred million years when the sun gets too hot for photosynthesis to work. Whether or not another intelligent species could do as well or better than we did is not an easy question to answer, seeing as we don't have anything to compare it to other than ourselves. It's unlikely that they'd have much of a fossil fuel reserve to jump off of, so who knows? Also, who cares? That's just science fiction distraction from real life. It's not important and never will be unless some alien species shows up some time soon and saves the world, but I'm not counting on it. Also we're probably not going to go extinct anyways, it's unlikely. As far as whether or not Australia is going to take over NZ there's no way to know for sure, but I'm more confident in NZ's chances than most other parts of the world. Rip Testes posted:Reading and reflecting on this report, the political/soon to be environmental situation in Brasil and seeing an FB post from a CHUD aligned contact with her fellow boomers around a raging back patio fire pit saying they are ready for fall despite the temperature in the 80s is leading to tightness in my chest. I've got a two year old downstairs who means the world to me as anyone with kids can attest and my wife wants another. I do too, but.... My child makes me realize how finite the days are and to have this constant reinforcement in the news of what awaits and to see her sparkling eyes oblivious to what awaits pains me. I do not think I am well. It is just a small relief to type it out and not keep it internalized. This thread and climate science in general have nothing to offer you at this point dude, the best thing you can do is pretend like everything is okay and just stop paying attention to the big picture. Your life will probably be pretty good until the day it's not, and you can deal with it then. Therapy can help with anxiety, you should look into it.
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Oct 8, 2018 22:30
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Saxophone posted:I always knew this poo poo was dire, I just didn't expect in the next 10-20 years dire. I thought maybe I could responsibly not have children, try to make the place better than I found it and die before things got really hairy. Which sounds kinda fygm of me, but unless I can magically invent carbon scrubbers that act ridiculously quickly, I don't see a way out. It will change the face of the planet if it's not stopped, certainly causing more extreme weather events of all kinds, possibly flooding and desertification, though some areas will be worse affected than others, beyond that it's a little hard to predict how any of this will play out for your own life. I think it's going a bit too far to assume you'll be starving in a desert somewhere, that's not something that anyone can actually predict and isn't a rational thought. At the very least though expect that you'll have to deal with the effects at some point, maybe that means moving to another area, maybe something else, maybe climate change will finally cause some communities to try to set up a rationally governed society to mitigate some of its effects or eventually decarbonize. In the mean time just try to lead a healthy lifestyle and try to lower your consumption of everything you don't need, especially meat and fossil fuel based transportation, which for most people probably amounts to a positive change regardless of anything else.
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Oct 8, 2018 22:37
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Rip Testes posted:I do not think I am well. It is just a small relief to type it out and not keep it internalized. Type it out mate, I was the same & ended up on antidepressants... they are not the way to go. A bit of feedback helps a lot.
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Oct 8, 2018 22:40
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ChairMaster posted:This thread and climate science in general have nothing to offer you at this point dude, the best thing you can do is pretend like everything is okay and just stop paying attention to the big picture. Your life will probably be pretty good until the day it's not, and you can deal with it then. Therapy can help with anxiety, you should look into it. I have to be honest knowing that life is short and all this is in the pipe I am considering accelerating my personal timelines. Not coming from a climate news standpoint, my wife the other day was mentioning moving back to her homeland with what we have which would be enough to retire with given the circumstances of her place of origin. I've been reticent to fully consider it due to the lack of healthcare there, but maybe that's less an issue. Retire to the boondock mountains of a foreign land away from this thread, the news and a large part of modern technological life. My mentality may improve, have more time with family, definitely have less of a carbon footprint and there could be a chance that the vicissitudes of climate change in that region and personal health work out in the long run.
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Oct 8, 2018 22:52
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Rip Testes posted:Reading and reflecting on this report, the political/soon to be environmental situation in Brasil and seeing an FB post from a CHUD aligned contact with her fellow boomers around a raging back patio fire pit saying they are ready for fall despite the temperature in the 80s is leading to tightness in my chest. I've got a two year old downstairs who means the world to me as anyone with kids can attest and my wife wants another. I do too, but.... My child makes me realize how finite the days are and to have this constant reinforcement in the news of what awaits and to see her sparkling eyes oblivious to what awaits pains me. I do not think I am well. It is just a small relief to type it out and not keep it internalized. The current inaction towards climate change is a temporary condition reflecting a generational divide, where in the west at least millenials onward take climate change very seriously.  If western democracies manage to avoid fascism over the next couple of decades there will be incredible political will towards addressing the problem after enough boomers die off. The tragedy of course is that by that time it will be too late and >2C warming will likely be locked in, and ongoing crises will hamper emission reduction efforts.
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Oct 8, 2018 23:02
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Nocturtle posted:The current inaction towards climate change is a temporary condition reflecting a generational divide, where in the west at least millenials onward take climate change very seriously. I think your bang on here..
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Oct 8, 2018 23:15
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Nocturtle posted:The current inaction towards climate change is a temporary condition reflecting a generational divide, where in the west at least millenials onward take climate change very seriously. The question is, which of these scenarios seem more like what you describe: quote:In 2020, strong participation and support for the Paris Agreement and its ambitious goals for reducing CO2 emissions by an almost unanimous international community led to a time frame for net-zero emissions that is compatible with halting of global temperature warming to 1.5°C by 2100. quote:The international community continues to largely support the Paris Agreement and agrees in 2020 on reduction targets for CO2 emissions and time frames for net-zero emissions. However, these targets are not ambitious enough to reach stabilization at 2°C warming, let alone 1.5°C. quote:In 2020, despite past pledges, the international support for the Paris Agreement starts to wane. In the years that follow, CO2 emissions are reduced at local and national level but efforts are limited and not always successful. the bottom one is the same worst case scenario from my other post
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Oct 8, 2018 23:16
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Trainee PornStar posted:Type it out mate, I was the same & ended up on antidepressants... they are not the way to go. Thanks by the way. Feels good to open up.
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Oct 8, 2018 23:19
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Rip Testes posted:I have to be honest knowing that life is short and all this is in the pipe I am considering accelerating my personal timelines. Not coming from a climate news standpoint, my wife the other day was mentioning moving back to her homeland with what we have which would be enough to retire with given the circumstances of her place of origin. I've been reticent to fully consider it due to the lack of healthcare there, but maybe that's less an issue. Retire to the boondock mountains of a foreign land away from this thread, the news and a large part of modern technological life. My mentality may improve, have more time with family, definitely have less of a carbon footprint and there could be a chance that the vicissitudes of climate change in that region and personal health work out in the long run. If after careful thought & discussion with your misses it still seems a good idea you ought to go for it. The current style of life is bullshit.
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Oct 8, 2018 23:22
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Why is it always Americans who assume their country is the only one with an immigration policy? You can't just up and move to New Zealand because you feel like it. Unless you plan to show up on a tourist visa, hide out in the back country and hope civilisation collapses before you get caught and deported.
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Oct 8, 2018 23:42
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Trainee PornStar posted:The current style of life is bullshit. Yeah. We are a splurge. The American way of life will end either by choice or by failure. It'd be much easier for all involved -- except the aristocrat types -- if we changed willingly. freebooter posted:Why is it always Americans who assume their country is the only one with an immigration policy? You can't just up and move to New Zealand because you feel like it. Unless you plan to show up on a tourist visa, hide out in the back country and hope civilisation collapses before you get caught and deported. I figure it's mostly a combination of pie-in-the-sky hypotheticals and SA's hundreds of emigration-ready techies.
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Oct 8, 2018 23:46
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Accretionist posted:Yeah. We are a splurge. The American way of life will end either by choice or by failure. It'd be much easier for all involved -- except the aristocrat types -- if we changed willingly. I'm kinda hoping for a 'French Revolution' type thing, it's unlikely but would maybe save us.
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Oct 8, 2018 23:51
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I live in Aotearoa. We are a low lying South Pacific island. We're full of racists and FYGM mcmansioneers. We have heaps of sand. We have hippies too. I have no answers. If a wwz great panic actually happens many migrates will definitely suffer here because we are low lying. I guess we could live in the hill and mountains. But much of our agricultural land is @ sea level.
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Oct 8, 2018 23:52
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Trainee PornStar posted:I'm kinda hoping for a 'French Revolution' type thing, it's unlikely but would maybe save us. Given the timescale, I think that'd need to be top-down. Like we elect Bernie Sanders in 2020 then he pulls a Dick Cheney and starts running his own private death squads. Coal industry? What coal industry?
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Oct 9, 2018 00:17
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