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Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~
God I really hope Vuku turn around, throw the next challenge and kick Alec's butt out so fast. I don't even dislike him or anything, I just think it would be hilarious.

I was delighted that after Gabby's breakdown she immediately got a challenge where she could be the standout hero and create a bonding moment with her tribemates. And I'm thrilled to see the Slamtown City Council coming into full effect :3:

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ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
I think the Elizabeth-Natalia exchange summed it up best: You have to make big moves, but you have to know when to make them. This was a really bad move for Alec, since he just put himself in the minority, and Kara could definitely bat Elizabeth to keep her around. Nobody's gonna remember how you got out Natalia, they'll remember how you just put yourself in the minority instead of expanding the Goliath lead.

Also, why did Natalia and Kara vote differently? Geez.

As for the other two tribes... Natalie is really not long for this game. I haven't met a more un-liked character around camp since Abi-Maria, and I can't see her dodging that bullet even if she makes it to the merge. Meanwhile, I can't see Green losing a challenge at all til the merge, they've got the two strongest guys and probably the two smartest people out there. The only thing that could break that is a Gabby meltdown. I was right though, she really can't work with anyone that's non-nerdy, and if she can't work with people that's not Christian, she's not gonna sell her social game. Heck, I almost want Christian to get voted out now just to see if she can handle it, it'd be like the equivalent of Worlds Apart Jenn just despondently wanting to get voted out after her best friend did.

Between Gabby, Natalie, Natalia and Jeremy it's like a cast of 'insecurity issues and social problems '. Even John had the 'I have doubts too!' confessional.

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~
Everyone feels insecure at times, op

Lone Goat
Apr 16, 2003

When life gives you lemons, suplex those lemons.




ApplesandOranges posted:


Also, why did Natalia and Kara vote differently? Geez.

As for the other two tribes... Natalie is really not long for this game. I haven't met a more un-liked character around camp since Abi-Maria,

Probably a vote split. Alec votes with them and it doesn't matter how the other two vote because it'll be 3-2 or 2-2-1 and they get a David on the revote.

Also I know this wasn't your point but I found it funny you use Abi Maria as your example since she made it to final 5 and final 7 in her seasons, so Natalie might have a long future ahead of her lol.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
Well could have used J'Tia as an example I guess. At least Natalie hasn't started dumping rice yet.

I feel like the winner at this point has to come from one of the green tribe (not you though, Alison). Unless Nick or Angelina (or maaaybe Davie) pulls off a bunch of impressive moves.

Capsaicin
Nov 17, 2004

broof roof roof
i REALLY want christian to come out with Worldwide Underground as their RD Evans style comptroller

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

Spergatory posted:

This is such a niche item though. Like the conditions for a correct idol play are pretty narrow, but the conditions for an idol nullifier are even narrower.
I don't think it's that complicated to use... The key is just to play it knowing that it might not end up being necessary, and not consider it a "failed" play if your target doesn't end up idoling. But when you've got someone like Dan this season, or Domenick or Wendell last season, and the knowledge they have an idol is out there, you can take them out with no fuss. Maybe they end up not playing their idol, but the idol canceler would still be useful because it would allow you to get those guys out of the game when otherwise maybe you couldn't have attempted it. Even just in a moment where you have no idol knowledge, but don't have numbers for a safe vote split, you can pile up votes on your target and play the thing and make it a simple, ease vote. Like, maybe it won't have been necessary, but just being able to vote with the assuredness that the target will go out with no nonsense would bring a lot of peace of mind and protect you from having to attempt something dicey like recruiting someone on the other side to partake in the vote split, open yourself up to the risk of a single person flipping and changing the outcome, and so on. This makes me not like it though, I don't like the idol canceler, it is stupid. mancalamania went into more detail and I second his post.

Fast Luck fucked around with this message at 17:49 on Oct 18, 2018

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

Spergatory posted:

Come on, Davey! Play your idol and send Alec home, thus explaining his tiny pathetic edit and general bitterness and willingness to break his NDA.
Heh Davey was so keen to just throw Elizabeth under the bus... I didn't really like it... Like, Alec came to him and was clearly itching to flip, and Davey's reaction was pretty much like, whatever, when the flip would be huge! Because even if Elizabeth went there and not Davey, and he kept his idol, he'd still be vulnerable immediately after that. The flip puts him into power! That's such a better outcome that I even would've considered it a good move, if the Goliaths held strong, to idol for Elizabeth, then Carl comes in and you have the 3-2 numbers advantage.

Fast Luck fucked around with this message at 16:57 on Oct 18, 2018

Number19
May 14, 2003

HOCKEY OWNS
FUCK YEAH


I honestly think Christian is the most interesting player we’ve seen in a long time. He’s quirky and odd, but doesn’t let it hurt his social game. Instead it endears him to people. He bonds with people easily and is genuine about it. Seeing the contrast of him forming new relationships with the Goliaths and then consoling Gabby in a truly caring manner was refreshing.

He really seems like a legit “good person.”

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Number19 posted:

I honestly think Christian is the most interesting player we’ve seen in a long time. He’s quirky and odd, but doesn’t let it hurt his social game. Instead it endears him to people. He bonds with people easily and is genuine about it. Seeing the contrast of him forming new relationships with the Goliaths and then consoling Gabby in a truly caring manner was refreshing.

He really seems like a legit “good person.”

:yeah:

Dugong
Mar 18, 2013

I don't know what to do,
I'm going to lose my mind

I can’t believe a Goliath got the boot when they had the numbers on every tribe and had an incentive to keep to their tribe with Carl being the replacement. Great TV though.

Pimpy Longcockings
Oct 6, 2018

by FactsAreUseless
I've always wondered about crapping in the ocean.

Luvcow
Jul 1, 2007

One day nearer spring

Pimpy Longcockings posted:

I've always wondered about crapping in the ocean.

"brown trout"



Number19 posted:

I honestly think Christian is the most interesting player we’ve seen in a long time. He’s quirky and odd, but doesn’t let it hurt his social game. Instead it endears him to people. He bonds with people easily and is genuine about it. Seeing the contrast of him forming new relationships with the Goliaths and then consoling Gabby in a truly caring manner was refreshing.

He really seems like a legit “good person.”


:agreed:

SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005

I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!

Fallen Rib
I was so nervous when Christian said he was going to engage Charmageddon, and then next thing you know he has professional loving wrestler John loving Morrison eating out of his hand. I love Christian so much.

Zesty
Jan 17, 2012

The Great Twist

Erik Reichenbach

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Last night really was the moment I was watching Natalie and I was like "ohh... yeah, ok. I get it."

Still, she'd make a hell of a goat if she can survive a couple of early Tribals.

Luvcow
Jul 1, 2007

One day nearer spring

Zesty posted:


Erik Reichenbach

ok this one is really good

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.

SalTheBard posted:

I was so nervous when Christian said he was going to engage Charmageddon, and then next thing you know he has professional loving wrestler John loving Morrison eating out of his hand. I love Christian so much.

Well half of that is John himself. If Christian is a refreshing take on the nerd stereotype, then John is a refreshing take on the jock stereotype. I think those two have the best chances of winning right now; I can't see anyone gunning for Christian til late game considering he has 3-4 solid allies across both tribes. John we've seen less of, but he was integrating extremely well with everyone, so he just has to be careful not to let possible side alliances get too big.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Yeah, the fact that Johnny Minecraft's first instinct to Christian going "What are the demographics of Slamtown? Can I be comptroller?" was to play along and say "yeah, I'm kind of nerdy too" and not just say "wow, what an annoying weirdo" is a big part of it and speaks to his chances to do well in the game.

But I still feel like its going to work against him. Being the big beats is one thing. Being the big beast everyone likes puts you in that Joe/Malcolm place where they just have to get rid of you before they regret it. But maybe he'll make enough friends to survive it, but Christian seems like he'll cut people even if his feelings are sincere. Like, I believe he was sincere with Gabby but also didn't he throw her under the bus about the last vote? That's the sort of thing I see costing Johnny. Relying on the wrong person to help protect you and them deciding he's too big of a threat.

STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 23:33 on Oct 18, 2018

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
John definitely plays differently than Joe or Malcolm though. I'm not sure if it's his age benefiting him, but he's playing a quieter, more social game than Malcolm, whereas Joe didn't really have much of a strategy aside from banking on people to save him. I think John will be a bit more proactive but in a way that allows him to not be as needlessly flashy as Malcolm (I liked Malcolm, but he definitely had a shot of 'I want to make the big moves' in him).

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Yeah, fair. We'll see. I think we probably agree that Johnny will be a target post merge and its just a question of whether he anticipates that and can prepare and put himself in a good position to weather it. He certainly seems like he has the potential to.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
Agreed, he'll definitely have the target, but it can always work to his favour if he can carry it to the end.

And you really never know what the group will target. In Cambodia Jeremy seemed like an obvious target going into the merge, but when it came around nobody was even looking at him til F6, they all had other fish to fry.

Teek
Aug 7, 2006

I can't wait to entertain you.
For those looking for a numbers, Gabby and Christian might have some luck in working with Johnny, where others would want to target him after merge. Could be a way to get a solid loyal ally, even if it does put you in danger at tribals if Johnny wins immunity. A Christian/Gabby/Elizabeth/Mike/Lyrsa/Johnny/Nick group would probably work well together, and be able to pick off a few key targets to eliminate any chance to break up that alliance.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
John can also rope in Dan, Angelina, and possibly Kara or Natalie as well. He's got options to either make a big cross-tribal alliance or just stick with a small comfortable group.

He'd like a ride-or-die though, whether it be Christian, Angelina or Natalie. I think he does have to look out for Nick, who'd snuff out anyone who gets close to Christian if possible.

Truther Vandross
Jun 17, 2008

I could see Johnny getting by as a goat strictly because he doesn’t need the money at all and they probably know that.

SLICK GOKU BABY
Jun 12, 2001

Hey Hey Let's Go! 喧嘩する
大切な物を protect my balls


sportsgenius86 posted:

I could see Johnny getting by as a goat strictly because he doesn’t need the money at all and they probably know that.

I don't see that likely coming up too much in a season half full of people like that.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Yeah. Plus like "professional wrestler" isn't some no brainer loaded job. Like, he was near the top long enough and big enough now that he's probably doing pretty well for himself if he's been halfway smart with his money. But its not like he's a pro athlete who signed a multimillion dollar contract to media attention or a corporate lawyer or CEO or something.

Unless he makes a thing of it I doubt it will be a thing.

Renaissance Spam
Jun 5, 2010

Can it wait a for a bit? I'm in the middle of some *gyrations*


Fast Luck posted:

Heh Davey was so keen to just throw Elizabeth under the bus... I didn't really like it... Like, Alec came to him and was clearly itching to flip, and Davey's reaction was pretty much like, whatever, when the flip would be huge! Because even if Elizabeth went there and not Davey, and he kept his idol, he'd still be vulnerable immediately after that. The flip puts him into power! That's such a better outcome that I even would've considered it a good move, if the Goliaths held strong, to idol for Elizabeth, then Carl comes in and you have the 3-2 numbers advantage.

While I don't think he's playing the long game well I think Davey played very well in terms of Alec; had he jumped at it Alec may have got spooked or become more vocal feeling he was in a power position and thus giving the game away.

Keeping chill but slowly guiding Alec to a flip was a solid move; had Natalia not been voted out and Elizabeth had in all likelihood (should they go to further councils) Carl would have been next and Davey would be able to worm his way into an alliance with Alec and then with his Idol get the advantage.

Of course that solo style play where he's willing to throw anyone under the bus to get ahead is going to burn him post merge I think.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

I didn't know how to take Davey going straight to "gently caress Elizabeth." Like, its possible that was too quick but its also possible that it was just the right read on the situation. Its tough to know what tribe dynamics were if he had a realistic reason to think it was worth it. Like, sure he could have played his idol and flipped the advantage but your tribe may never be to Tribal again and worst case scenario if you feel safe you play the idol next week.

I don't know. It worked out so I guess i just give Davey the benefit of the doubt of reading things and going along with the vibe given out by the majority.

But yeah, he doesn't seem like he has the long game mindset at the moment. But its tough to have that when you're staring down a Tribal this early.

Renaissance Spam
Jun 5, 2010

Can it wait a for a bit? I'm in the middle of some *gyrations*


STAC Goat posted:

But yeah, he doesn't seem like he has the long game mindset at the moment. But its tough to have that when you're staring down a Tribal this early.

I don't know; the truth is Davey was safe in this one and with Carl joining he had another cushion to ensure his safety (plus the idol); it's far from classy but unless they lost every immunity challenge until the merge I think Davey could have held out and at least APPEARED loyal.

Now of course maybe that was his plan; slowly sow doubt in Alec about Natalie while slow rolling a flip down the line only Alec jumped the gun because Natalie got smug.

I'm interested to see what happens next episode; Davey's gonna have to do some tap dancing.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Eh, I don't know how fair it is to say he was safe. Alec obviously was pushing him as a bigger threat and even if you're 100% safe its tough to feel that way when you're in that position. He COULD have rode that out in theory while Elizabeth and Carl go down as shields but there's no guarantee of that working when you're at the mercy of the Goliaths. And obviously Alec isn't the most loyal and honest guy to be your connect.

I just don't want to read too much into it when he was in the poo poo tribal position. Plus, wasn't he on the wrong side of the blindside Elizabeth helped orchestrate? So like he obviously had no reason to trust or be loyal to her besides numbers.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
Yeah, Davie was definitely not in a 100% safe position. In fact if he'd noticed how close Kara and Elizabeth were getting, I wouldn't have faulted him for playing his idol. He gambled, and he lucked out.

It's hard to say whether to sell out your allies or trying to find a crack is better when you're in that position. Obviously the latter is preferred, but if they're united and you get seen as a target for how hard you're playing...

I mean, if I was Elizabeth, I wouldn't have hard feelings towards Davie. They were both trying to save themselves. I wonder if she pitched to Kara, though, we didn't see that for some reason.

Spergatory
Oct 28, 2012
The thing about Christian that's helping him land for me is that he's not self-loathing. He's rarely even self-deprecating; rather, he seems comfortable in his own skin, like somebody who knows their own weaknesses, but is equally familiar with and capable of utilizing their strengths. He just... knows himself. He can say he grew up in Wimpville in one episode, but in the next, be the herald of the Charmpocalypse, and both are believable. So many characters in the Cochran mold have this uncomfortable layer of self-loathing to them, with Jacob Derwin being the worst offender. But Christian? Christian is fine being who he is. In fact, I'd say he actively enjoys it. And that's refreshing coming from his archetype.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

Or someone like Ryan Ulrich who self-deprecatingly kept going back to the same drat "never had a girlfriend" well over and over., StfU!!!

Bigass Moth
Mar 6, 2004

I joined the #RXT REVOLUTION.
:boom:
he knows...

SLICK GOKU BABY posted:

I don't see that likely coming up too much in a season half full of people like that.

Take me back to the old days when “he’s a dentist, he doesn’t need the prize money” was a legitimate reason to vote someone out.

Renaissance Spam
Jun 5, 2010

Can it wait a for a bit? I'm in the middle of some *gyrations*


Spergatory posted:

The thing about Christian that's helping him land for me is that he's not self-loathing. He's rarely even self-deprecating; rather, he seems comfortable in his own skin, like somebody who knows their own weaknesses, but is equally familiar with and capable of utilizing their strengths. He just... knows himself. He can say he grew up in Wimpville in one episode, but in the next, be the herald of the Charmpocalypse, and both are believable. So many characters in the Cochran mold have this uncomfortable layer of self-loathing to them, with Jacob Derwin being the worst offender. But Christian? Christian is fine being who he is. In fact, I'd say he actively enjoys it. And that's refreshing coming from his archetype.

Yeah there's a comfort there that I find engaging and while he can still be painfully cringe worthy at times I find his earnestness refreshing coming from a "nerd" archetype.

Also re: Davey after rewatching yeah I think I got the sense he was safe having that omniscient watcher experience; there's nothing to indicate he had knowledge he was safe besides his ingratiating himself to the Goliaths and if he'd spotted Elizabeth building rapport with Kara he may have become spooked himself.

So if anything I think his play was even smarter because he didn't try to convince Alec to vote Natalia directly, he merely played on Alec's mistrust and let Alec make the decision which keeps him looking like an ally and not a manipulator.

Still think he's gone early post merge but I gotta give him props for how he played things this episode.

Zesty
Jan 17, 2012

The Great Twist

Bigass Moth posted:

Take me back to the old days when “he’s a dentist, he doesn’t need the prize money” was a legitimate reason to vote someone out.

I don’t see John, Natalie, or Mike winning without something absolutely spectacular happening.

And I mean something we have never seen before... or they have the worst goats with them.

But I give Natalie a 0% chance to win.

CODChimera
Jan 29, 2009

Maybe I just had low expectations but aside from the med evacs this season is looking promising.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.

Zesty posted:

I don’t see John, Natalie, or Mike winning without something absolutely spectacular happening.

And I mean something we have never seen before... or they have the worst goats with them.

But I give Natalie a 0% chance to win.

Maybe not Natalie, but John and Mike have legitimate chances. They're likable enough, and have strategy to back themselves up. They just need to be able to work around the target on them, but that applies to any number of the cast members, like Christian.

Jeremy (Cambodia) and Mike Holloway (Worlds Apart) have overcome worse odds before, so I wouldn't write them off just yet because they're successful and/or physical.

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Zesty
Jan 17, 2012

The Great Twist
They still have to work extra hard to overcome the "You're already rich" mindset. I'd give it to Lyrsa at this point before I gave it to John.

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