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https://twitter.com/erikhalvorsen18/status/1055190285729304579?s=19 Every.drat.Time. 
Shrecknet fucked around with this message at 23:03 on Oct 24, 2018 |
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Oct 24, 2018 21:21
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TulliusCicero posted:The Chud Uprising has begun Still the best title for the FREEP thread.
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Oct 24, 2018 21:22
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luxury handset posted:i'd say there's a difference between an economic decline tied to a singular issue, like the housing bubble collapse in 2008, and one which just sort of happens for numerous stacking factors I don't really have the language to better understand it beyond the turbulent, often violent outcomes it wreaks on the people least-capable of dealing with those effects in our society. I've been listening to Richard Wolff's podcast to get a better grip on it. I still have at best a tentative understanding of what happened in 08 (mostly derived from reading Taibbi and watching The Big Short) but I think the thing I'm driving at here is that it seems pretty unfortunate and dangerous that there's an enormous consensus about our economic system among the experts, that consensus doesn't seem to change too much, yet that consensus can't prevent events like the Savings and Loan crisis, the dotcom bust, or the 08 crisis. All those experts, and nobody can solve the mystery of Where All The Black Family Wealth Went After 08. Seems like a scam, from that perspective.
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Oct 24, 2018 21:23
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A polling firm that specializes in polling latino voters says Rosen is up by about 50 points among that group over Heller, which is about where she needs to be. If she were up only 20 or 30 points, her campaign would be dead. https://thenevadaindependent.com/ar...no-polling-firm
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Oct 24, 2018 21:24
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ReidRansom posted:My portfolio has been getting annihilated these last few weeks, and that sucks but oh well it's not like I'm going to do anything with it at the moment, so plenty of years left to rebound. Hell, a lot of things now back in a very attractive buy position. My IRA has been killing it and I'm still up ~24% right now. Sometimes I forget to allocate my funds once and awhile so I'm going to take advantage of this situation and buy while stuff is "down."
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Oct 24, 2018 21:24
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selec posted:I don't really have the language to better understand it beyond the turbulent, often violent outcomes it wreaks on the people least-capable of dealing with those effects in our society. I've been listening to Richard Wolff's podcast to get a better grip on it. I still have at best a tentative understanding of what happened in 08 (mostly derived from reading Taibbi and watching The Big Short) but I think the thing I'm driving at here is that it seems pretty unfortunate and dangerous that there's an enormous consensus about our economic system, that consensus doesn't seem to change too much, yet that consensus can't prevent events like the Savings and Loan crisis, the dotcom bust, or the 08 crisis. All those experts, and nobody can solve the mystery of Where All The Black Family Wealth Went After 08. the issue is that an economic consensus doesn't actually do anything. politicians need to act on it, and they don't.
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Oct 24, 2018 21:24
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evilweasel posted:the issue is that an economic consensus doesn't actually do anything. politicians need to act on it, and they don't. Right? It's like Larry Summers' phone never, ever rings. Are you serious man?
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Oct 24, 2018 21:25
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Rigel posted:A polling firm that specializes in polling latino voters says Rosen is up by about 50 points among that group over Heller, which is about where she needs to be. If she were up only 20 or 30 points, her campaign would be dead. I like that 89% motivated figure.
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Oct 24, 2018 21:25
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Rigel posted:A polling firm that specializes in polling latino voters says Rosen is up by about 50 points among that group over Heller, which is about where she needs to be. If she were up only 20 or 30 points, her campaign would be dead. I don't understand how Heller even has a chance. Incumbency is a hell of a drug.
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Oct 24, 2018 21:26
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selec posted:I think the thing I'm driving at here is that it seems pretty unfortunate and dangerous that there's an enormous consensus about our economic system among the experts, that consensus doesn't seem to change too much, yet that consensus can't prevent events like the Savings and Loan crisis, the dotcom bust, or the 08 crisis. All those experts, and nobody can solve the mystery of Where All The Black Family Wealth Went After 08. everyone knows where it went, the problem is that the government is kicked between the party who wants to enact regulations to prevent this from happening again, and the party which doesn't expertise only goes so far when that expertise is carefully discarded to permit bankers to loot the economy. doctors are pretty drat sure about what causes premature mortality but that doesn't convert directly into sane healthcare policy
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Oct 24, 2018 21:26
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Al Borland Corpse posted:That's a totally unfungible thing to make a wager on. How do you quantify that? in it there is one (1) fairly falsifiable prediction: that a "2008-style economic collapse" (which others have pointed out is admittedly something that could be quibbled on) would be followed by increased turnout at fascist events this sounds plausible, while not the world's most impressive prediction
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Oct 24, 2018 21:26
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Prester Jane posted:I'll witnessed, though the time frame is probably long enough that forums will collapse before the economy does
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Oct 24, 2018 21:27
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luxury handset posted:everyone knows where it went, the problem is that the government is kicked between the party who wants to enact regulations to prevent this from happening again, and the party which doesn't Why isn't the party who wants to ostensibly prevent this from happening again ringing the alarm nonstop about it? I mean, the most charismatic member of that party literally just gave a speech saying that donors and lobbyists aren't the big problem, but voter apathy is. We get some spreadsheet explanations of what we're gonna get, but it never can escape the basic model of Managing The Markets. I mean, that's literally what Elizabeth Warren says made her a dem: they're better capitalists. If that guy can't even get a basic power analysis about who runs poo poo in this country right, who can we trust? I haven't seen any evidence that the difference between what the parties want for our economy is in any way enough to solve the issues of the wealth gap and the associated hoarding of wealth by the donor class. I don't even think that evidence exists, because if it did, the donor class would fire whoever took the actions that provided the evidence.
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Oct 24, 2018 21:27
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Friday is the announcement of Q3 GDP, and it’s looking increasingly to be in the 3.0-3.6 range. Not sure how that outcome can lead to gains in the market at all so the rout could still be on.
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Oct 24, 2018 21:28
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https://twitter.com/mattdpearce/status/1055193539427000320quote:Authorities responded to the Los Angeles Times in El Segundo on Wednesday after a package containing suspicious envelopes was delivered to the building.
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Oct 24, 2018 21:28
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TulliusCicero posted:The nonexistent tarrifs are really having great effects! For, let's say a 5'x10' sheet of 14 ga steel, my shop used to pay $50. We now pay $75. Every supplier around us has jacked up prices, basically because they can. I read the word tarrifs and felt I needed to contribute that.
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Oct 24, 2018 21:29
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selec posted:Right? It's like Larry Summers' phone never, ever rings. economics as a discipline has the problem that basically all of its recommendations are political actions in one way or another. the entire conservative movement is based on a theory of economics that has been known to be utter nonsense for fifty years; it persists not because of a failure of economics in theory, but because people who wanted certain political actions were motivated to come up with an economic theory that supported them, and then just pretend that it was true. that is basically the foundation of reganomics: everyone who understands economics knows it's bullshit, but who cares, just ignore them and pitch your snake oil to the public.
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Oct 24, 2018 21:29
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luxury handset posted:everyone knows where it went, the problem is that the government is kicked between the party who wants to put enact regulations to it is important, friend, to remember what actually happened when Democrats had all the power of that economic consensus at their backs.
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Oct 24, 2018 21:29
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selec posted:Why isn't the party who wants to ostensibly prevent this from happening again ring the alarm about it? I mean, the most charismatic member of that party literally just gave a speech saying that donors and lobbyists aren't the big problem, but voter apathy is. they do, all the time. here's one example https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/22/house-passes-bank-bill-rolling-back-dodd-frank-rules.html quote:It eases mortgage loan data reporting requirements for the overwhelming majority of banks. It would add some safeguards for student loan borrowers and also require credit reporting companies to provide free credit monitoring services. you're doing that thing where you're like "why i am i, personally, not aware of this thing! since i have extensive knowledge on political minutae, that must mean democrats aren't doing it!" tons of people do this, to be fair. just be open to the idea that if you aren't sure if something is happening or not, it is a good time to confirm that for yourself rather than making an assumption
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Oct 24, 2018 21:30
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evilweasel posted:economics as a discipline has the problem that basically all of its recommendations are political actions in one way or another. the entire conservative movement is based on a theory of economics that has been known to be utter nonsense for fifty years; it persists not because of a failure of economics in theory, but because people who wanted certain political actions were motivated to come up with an economic theory that supported them, and then just pretend that it was true. that is basically the foundation of reganomics: everyone who understands economics knows it's bullshit, but who cares, just ignore them and pitch your snake oil to the public. You'd think a failing so obvious would be easy to point out, except that we never really get that explanation, IMHO, because it's too easy to follow the logic to come to the conclusion that if the political system we have is incapable of solving the economic cycle we deal with, then one or the other has to go.
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Oct 24, 2018 21:31
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Ague Proof posted:I vaguely remember some unhinged Qanon nonsense about Brennan the ISIS member. I believe Brennan is the one they think is a crypto-Muslim.
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Oct 24, 2018 21:31
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luxury handset posted:they do, all the time. here's one example oh, right, that one that Kaine jumped across the aisle to vote for lol
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Oct 24, 2018 21:32
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Easy Diff posted:https://twitter.com/erikhalvorsen18/status/1055190285729304579?s=19 That tweet is a fake.
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Oct 24, 2018 21:32
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https://twitter.com/jaredlholt/status/1055150855870205954 https://twitter.com/drmistercody/status/1055172565675597824
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Oct 24, 2018 21:32
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CRIP EATIN BREAD posted:My IRA has been killing it and I'm still up ~24% right now. Sometimes I forget to allocate my funds once and awhile so I'm going to take advantage of this situation and buy while stuff is "down." It's a good time to do it. I'm not qualified to say whether this is the bottom, but there are a lot of bargains to be had.
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Oct 24, 2018 21:33
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selec posted:You'd think a failing so obvious would be easy to point out, except that we never really get that explanation, IMHO, because it's too easy to follow the logic to come to the conclusion that if the political system we have is incapable of solving the economic cycle we deal with, then one or the other has to go. that democracies have trouble with technocratic stuff because the public is ill-equipped to know which person is correct and which is a snake-oil salesman for complex issues is a well-known failing
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Oct 24, 2018 21:34
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selec posted:I don't really have the language to better understand it beyond the turbulent, often violent outcomes it wreaks on the people least-capable of dealing with those effects in our society. I've been listening to Richard Wolff's podcast to get a better grip on it. I still have at best a tentative understanding of what happened in 08 (mostly derived from reading Taibbi and watching The Big Short) but I think the thing I'm driving at here is that it seems pretty unfortunate and dangerous that there's an enormous consensus about our economic system among the experts, that consensus doesn't seem to change too much, yet that consensus can't prevent events like the Savings and Loan crisis, the dotcom bust, or the 08 crisis. All those experts, and nobody can solve the mystery of Where All The Black Family Wealth Went After 08. Lewis's The Big Short is a good 101-level intro to what was going on in 2008 and is accessible enough for everyone. People itt are a bit more sophisticated so I'd also recommend Andrew Ross Sorkin's Too Big To Fail as it's a really good look at what the hell happened in 2008 and covers things in exquisite detail. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Too_Big_to_Fail_(book) I also recommend reading Hank Paulson's book about his time as Treasury Secretary. Even if you think he's evil/bad/whatever, he gives a pretty honest accounting of what was going on and why he/Bernanke/Bair made the decisions they made. Finally, Bethany McLean's All The Devils are Here is another good look at what went on. She was the author of pretty much the book on Enron and has some good insights. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_the_Devils_Are_Here If you want econ reading in general Paul Krugman is probably the best for a general audience. He writes textbooks and stuff too if you're more inclined to get your hands dirty with New Keynesian economics.
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Oct 24, 2018 21:35
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ReidRansom posted:It's a good time to do it. I'm not qualified to say whether this is the bottom, but there are a lot of bargains to be had. it is a better idea to invest today than it was in july, but i sure wouldn't invest any money i was going to need in the next few years
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Oct 24, 2018 21:35
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1stGear posted:Michael Schur is from an alternative dimension where everything is sweetness and light. He cannot conceive of bad cops, because there are no bad cops (or cops at all) where he's from. He has come to help us be better people through wholesome but not saccharine sitcoms. A police shooting?
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Oct 24, 2018 21:35
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evilweasel posted:i would define a 2008 like financial crisis as one where there is at least one FDIC receivership of a major US bank or a SIPC liquidation of a major investment bank in conjunction with a stock market drop of over 10% in a reasonably short time period Works for me. I  that if that scenario does occur there will be no significant change in support among Trumps base 30 days out from the time the receivership becomes public. (Lets set the boundary at <2 points) Further there will be an indisputable* increase in the numbers of Proud Boys (and the like) appearing at public rallies 4 months after that event.*You can define that however you like when the time comes and I will accept your judgement without complaint. Separately I that should the stock market drop 20% from its current position there will not be a <2 point loss in Trumps support among his base 30 days after that barrier is broken.
Prester Jane fucked around with this message at 21:38 on Oct 24, 2018 |
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Oct 24, 2018 21:36
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CRIP EATIN BREAD posted:My IRA has been killing it and I'm still up ~24% right now. Sometimes I forget to allocate my funds once and awhile so I'm going to take advantage of this situation and buy while stuff is "down." ReidRansom posted:It's a good time to do it. I'm not qualified to say whether this is the bottom, but there are a lot of bargains to be had. You are dumb if you think you have any ability whatsoever to time the market.
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Oct 24, 2018 21:36
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evilweasel posted:that democracies have trouble with technocratic stuff because the public is ill-equipped to know which person is correct and which is a snake-oil salesman is a well-known failing But main street's still all cracked and broken
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Oct 24, 2018 21:37
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evilweasel posted:economics as a discipline has the problem that basically all of its recommendations are political actions in one way or another. the entire conservative movement is based on a theory of economics that has been known to be utter nonsense for fifty years; it persists not because of a failure of economics in theory, but because people who wanted certain political actions were motivated to come up with an economic theory that supported them, and then just pretend that it was true. that is basically the foundation of reganomics: everyone who understands economics knows it's bullshit, but who cares, just ignore them and pitch your snake oil to the public. Conservative economics cracks me up because it all usually boils down to “if you do this thing that seems like the opposite of what you should do, it’s actually GOOD!” “If you take a lower paying job, you’ll actually have MORE money!” “If you eat more, and exercise less, you’ll actually become HEALTHIER!”
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Oct 24, 2018 21:38
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XyrlocShammypants posted:Friday is the announcement of Q3 GDP, and it’s looking increasingly to be in the 3.0-3.6 range. Not sure how that outcome can lead to gains in the market at all so the rout could still be on. The "market" is only loosely connected to the actual economy and will do whatever the gently caress as a result. For example it is quite likely that an absolute gangbusters growth report would trigger a market drop because it would indicate toward interest rate hikes which makes all the
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Oct 24, 2018 21:39
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evilweasel posted:economics as a discipline has the problem that basically all of its recommendations are political actions in one way or another. the entire conservative movement is based on a theory of economics that has been known to be utter nonsense for fifty years; it persists not because of a failure of economics in theory, but because people who wanted certain political actions were motivated to come up with an economic theory that supported them, and then just pretend that it was true. that is basically the foundation of reganomics: everyone who understands economics knows it's bullshit, but who cares, just ignore them and pitch your snake oil to the public. For more details on this, read How Did Economists Get It So Wrong? https://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/06/magazine/06Economic-t.html
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Oct 24, 2018 21:40
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Prester Jane posted:Works for me. I Okay, but how does this get people to stop celebrating things like a stock market drop? And your "indisputable" condition basically ensures you will be banned.
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Oct 24, 2018 21:40
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Prester Jane posted:Works for me. I what's the point of any of these elaborate scenarios? the point of the dumb ol forums tradition is to make a simple bet you can easily lose, not create a contract defining the precise economic indicators necessary i mean it would be funny if you got banned after the stock market fell five thousand points and one poll disagreed with another within the margin of error, which is often > 2 points. don't get me wrong
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Oct 24, 2018 21:40
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Your Taint posted:More domestic terror! holy poo poo. i used to go to this Kroger regularly
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Oct 24, 2018 21:41
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coffeetable posted:You are dumb if you think you have any ability whatsoever to time the market. I only know it's better to buy now than yesterday or the day before. Maybe tomorrow will be better still, but I don't know that. evilweasel posted:it is a better idea to invest today than it was in july, but i sure wouldn't invest any money i was going to need in the next few years This. And also yes, I don't gently caress around with short term stuff and wouldn't recommend it to anyone either.
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Oct 24, 2018 21:41
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economics as a discipline also suffers from liberal arts college students who struggle with algebra being taught a super dumbed down version that doesn't require any math more complex than straight lines interacting in econ 101, not getting beyond that, and thinking the dumbed down version is the real version. if you happen to actually be good at math and want some free As in college, take some econ classes with the liberal arts students. just make sure all of the grade is in the exams and not class participation. the only A+ i got in college was an econ class where all of the difficulty was in the byzantine algebra to get answers instead of using calculus, and once i figured that out i basically showed up for two tests and had such a high average i could have signed my name to the final exam, turned it in blank and gotten a zero, and still pulled off something like a C.
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Oct 24, 2018 21:42
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