|
Willa Rogers posted:In any case, I hope that the Obama legacy of faux-weakness & "bipartisanship" (instead of getting what you & your donors set out to get from the beginning) is as dead for Dems as Biden's candidacy will be six months from now. Bernie supporter here who doesn't like Biden, but I'm surprised you're discounting his 2020 nomination chances. Biden's got high name ID, he's leading so far in primary polls, he's being framed as a kind of white-working-class voter whisperer (albeit that's pretty dumb), he has easy access to billionaire donor money, he's the establishment candidate in an era where older Dems will want to counter Trump with an "experienced insider", the media is already fawning over him (look at the coverage he gets on lovely near-unwatchable cable shows like Morning Joe), and his progressive challengers like Bernie, Warren, and possibly Merkley will split each others' votes. Biden sucks but it's his nomination to lose.
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 01:46
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 10, 2024 17:36 |
|
|
Armack posted:Biden sucks but it's his nomination to lose. Good thing he’s already proven extremely good at losing nominations.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 01:50
|
|
|
YOLOsubmarine posted:Good thing he’s already proven extremely good at losing nominations. It's not the same. That was before he was Vice President and before he was associated in liberal Democrats' minds with a figure like Obama, for whom they still pine.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 02:47
|
|
|
Office Pig posted:He wants to run for president because he thinks he has the 'yoga mom vote' locked down, that is his express rationale. In his defense, he's banged a lot of yoga moms.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 06:49
|
|
|
Armack posted:Bernie supporter here who doesn't like Biden, but I'm surprised you're discounting his 2020 nomination chances. Oh right, that guy. He's probably a contender for my second-tier pick. also iirc vote-splitting in the primary is of limited danger because you need an actual majority to win, right? the risk isn't strictly mathematical, it's that a superficially commanding lead might sway later voters
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 06:55
|
|
|
Well, it matters if the vote splits enough to drag you down under 15% and then you literally get ZERO delegates, and also it matters if you're someone the establishment hates and it goes to the second round and suddenly the superdelegates get to swing their dick around.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 11:10
|
|
|
WampaLord posted:So you want a good candidate who will turn around and govern horribly? Please tell me how Obama's presidency was a failure, but the Carter presidency, which is the absolute best case scenario for Bernie, wasn't. Also remember that not doing anything is not an accomplishment. Cadaver_Maclaine posted:There is literally no one the Democrats could run that the GOP won't attempt to stonewall and gridlock the Congress, no one at all. Consequently, there's no reason for the Dems to hamstring themselves in the pointless quest to find someone "reasonable" or "moderate" enough to pass muster with the other party (since that person does not, and I'm increasingly convinced can not, exist). Not that the idiots won't try anyway, of course. The big difference is that unlike Bernie, other Democratic presidents won't be in gridlock and battles with the loving Democratic party. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 11:29
|
|
|
Fulchrum posted:Please tell me how Obama's presidency was a failure, but the Carter presidency, which is the absolute best case scenario for Bernie, wasn't. Bernie is going to veto universal health care because it's too generous?
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 11:48
|
|
|
VitalSigns posted:Bernie is going to veto universal health care because it's too generous? That's a weird way of saying he did it half because of incompetence and not knowing what the hell he was doing, and half because he thought it was important to get back at the Dem party leadership.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 11:55
|
|
|
To get back at the Dem leadership for being too mean to private insurance? I haven't watched every one of his speeches but I don't think that's Bernie's agenda. VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 12:16 on Oct 31, 2018 |
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 12:06
|
|
|
VitalSigns posted:To get back at the Dem leadership for being too mean to private insurance? To say gently caress You to Ted Kennedy for wanting Carters job. Which Ted Kennedy did want, because at the time, it was held by an idiot.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 12:15
|
|
|
I don't think President Bernie will pay any mind to fears that Chuck "imaginary friends" Schumer is going to flank him from the left with even more generous healthcare.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 12:18
|
|
|
Can't wait for President Bernie, from his position as head of the Democratic Party (which he will only technically be a member of) to actively campaign against Manchin and McCaskill and other succdems and forces them to finally stop pretending and wear the R
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 12:35
|
|
|
Ted Kennedy was a threat to Carter because Kennedy's policies were more popular A hypothetical President Sanders would not be threatened by a sudden groundswell of support for the "better things will never ever happen" wing.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 12:38
|
|
|
VitalSigns posted:Ted Kennedy was a threat to Carter because Kennedy's policies were more popular Than Bernies policies of promising everything and delivering nothing? I doubt it'll be hard to be more popular than that. Fulchrum fucked around with this message at 12:47 on Oct 31, 2018 |
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 12:43
|
|
|
Fulchrum posted:Please tell me how Obama's presidency was a failure, but the Carter presidency, which is the absolute best case scenario for Bernie, wasn't. Also remember that not doing anything is not an accomplishment. I strongly disagree that you can accurately predict how a hypothetical Bernie presidency will go, and as a fellow member of the "post your map" crew, one would think you would have more humility about making pronouncements of the future. Also it's not the 1970s anymore, but you're so loving mad at the left that you won't bother to let a little thing like what year it is and the current political climate affect how you view anything.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 13:03
|
|
|
It's safe to say that the guy so influential that he can lose an election and still get his policies adopted by every 2020 candidate would accomplish even more as the leader of the party and president and the only politician who ever defeated Trump
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 13:03
|
|
|
WampaLord posted:I strongly disagree that you can accurately predict how a hypothetical Bernie presidency will go, and as a fellow member of the "post your map" crew, one would think you would have more humility about making pronouncements of the future. Constant infighting and an unwillingness to work with the party leadership didn't stop being a problem because we stopped buying pet rocks or making movies about truckers.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 13:07
|
|
|
Fulchrum posted:Constant infighting and an unwillingness to work with the party leadership didn't stop being a problem .
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 13:11
|
|
|
VitalSigns posted:I'm glad to hear that the 2020 nominee, whoever they may be, can count on your unconditional support in the general election and in office Fulchrum posted:I, Something Awful forums user Fulchrum, will support Bernie Sanders publicly in my posting and by voting for him, if he is the 2020 Democratic nominee. However, I do not believe he will be the 2020 Democratic nominee.  It heartens me that Fulchrum feels threatened enough by a Bernie 2020 nomination and victory that he’s preemptively declaring it’ll be like Carter.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 15:13
|
|
|
 When you purge me for my posting crimes in round 3 I won't even be mad
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 15:17
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1057685158814535680
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 18:42
|
|
|
Have we talked about Sherrod Brown in this thread? He's not really making any noise about running, and he'd be an old, but he's one of the most progressive senators, popular in the rust belt. He'd be another like Warren where I could see him getting the Clinton wing AND the Sanders wing of the party.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 18:48
|
|
|
Hellblazer187 posted:Have we talked about Sherrod Brown in this thread? He's not really making any noise about running, and he'd be an old, but he's one of the most progressive senators, popular in the rust belt. He'd be another like Warren where I could see him getting the Clinton wing AND the Sanders wing of the party. I think he came up. I think he’s prime VP material but also that they probably shouldn’t tap older senators for that as opposed to younger people who could use the visibility boost. I wouldn’t vote for Brown over Bernie but I’d consider him otherwise, he doesn’t excite me but I don’t really have anything against him at the moment.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 18:51
|
|
|
reignonyourparade posted:Well, it matters if the vote splits enough to drag you down under 15% and then you literally get ZERO delegates, and also it matters if you're someone the establishment hates and it goes to the second round and suddenly the superdelegates get to swing their dick around. i had forgotten the first of these rules, that's kind of a big deal in a crowded field
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 19:37
|
|
|
Hellblazer187 posted:Have we talked about Sherrod Brown in this thread? He's not really making any noise about running, and he'd be an old, but he's one of the most progressive senators, popular in the rust belt. He'd be another like Warren where I could see him getting the Clinton wing AND the Sanders wing of the party. It was mentioned. A lot probably depends on how 2018 goes in Ohio, given that the governor appoints in the event of a vacancy and there are concerns about the state getting more red.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 19:43
|
|
|
GreyjoyBastard posted:i had forgotten the first of these rules, that's kind of a big deal in a crowded field The field basically never stays that crowded after South Carolina. I mean I guess if there's ten candidates and they're all polling at around 10% in each primary that's going to be a problem but I think basically after Iowa and NH there will be 1-2 left flank and 1-2 establishment flank remaining.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 20:20
|
|
|
The savior of the Democratic party
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 20:28
|
|
|
I wish fulcrum wasn't probated so someone could explain to me why Biden is good
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 20:29
|
|
|
mandatory lesbian posted:I wish fulcrum wasn't probated so someone could explain to me why Biden is good Also something something Camaro.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 20:33
|
|
|
mandatory lesbian posted:I wish fulcrum wasn't probated so someone could explain to me why Biden is good I don't see him managing to not fumble away the primary like he's done in the past. Maybe he won't manage to forget how the primary rules work like happened to ~~someone~~ in 2008, but he'll say another idiotic thing and that'll be that. E: if being uncle handsy doesn't sink him first.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 20:38
|
|
|
Biden's support is a mile wide but an inch deep. The vast majority of people aren't paying attention to the policy statements of the contenders at this point in time. So they remember Biden and remember that Obama is much better than Trump and just go yeah OK, Biden. Once we start having debates and whatever, he'll sink I'm sure of it.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 20:43
|
|
|
The Anita Hill thing alone should sink him and if it doesn't I just don't know how a person could not be filled with shame at the party.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 20:44
|
|
|
Oh Snapple! posted:The Anita Hill thing alone should sink him and if it doesn't I just don't know how a person could not be filled with shame at the party. I 100% agree with this.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 20:47
|
|
|
Hellblazer187 posted:The field basically never stays that crowded after South Carolina. I mean I guess if there's ten candidates and they're all polling at around 10% in each primary that's going to be a problem but I think basically after Iowa and NH there will be 1-2 left flank and 1-2 establishment flank remaining. I think that given CA pushed up their primary from June to March of 2020 most candidates will feel it worth their while to stay in the race at least through March. If Harris runs, then lower-tier candidates may decide to drop out, but given proportionate delegate allocation, even a second-place winner in CA could amass a good number of delegates. (Same goes for other large blue states that have their primaries in March, like IL And we'd probably have to go back to 1992 to figure out the pace of candidates dropping out in a wide-open primary, although 2008 was also fairly open. eta: Candidates' longevity may also be influenced by the supers not being allowed to vote on first ballot in 2020. It'll also be interesting to see how supers shake out early-endorsement-wise in a crowded field comprised of establishment candidates for the most part. Supers aren't going to want to be seen endorsing a candidate who ends up defeated early on. Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 21:05 on Oct 31, 2018 |
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 21:00
|
|
|
Willa Rogers posted:I think that given CA pushed up their primary from June to March of 2020 most candidates will feel it worth their while to stay in the race at least through March. If Harris runs, then lower-tier candidates may decide to drop out, but given proportionate delegate allocation, even a second-place winner in CA could amass a good number of delegates. (Same goes for other large blue states that have their primaries in March, like IL yeah, the dem primaries are hilariously frontloaded california scheduled theirs for super tuesday, alongside texas, north carolina, virginia, massachusetts, tennessee, alabama, oklahoma, and vermont
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 21:31
|
|
|
Bernie’s got a nice Super Tuesday advantage with Oklahoma and Vermont being shoe-ins
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 21:38
|
|
|
He won Oklahoma last time because he wasn't Hillary. He still won't be Hillary this time, but neither will the other candidates. And, idk, I don't think "will win up to 16 delegates in Vermont" is going to be much of a story on the night of code:Pinterest Mom fucked around with this message at 21:52 on Oct 31, 2018 |
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 21:46
|
|
|
Raskolnikov38 posted:Bernie’s got a nice Super Tuesday advantage with Oklahoma and Vermont being shoe-ins that's a geographically and electorally diverse enough set of states that the only candidates who really stand a chance at walking away with a lot of delegates are the ones with pre-existing national recognition (and support structure), which is basically biden and sanders currently on top of that something like 2/3 of the possible delegates will be awarded by the end of march. florida, illinois, ohio, michigan, arizona, colorado, missouri, and another half dozen states are scheduled that month. the only big state after that is pennsylvania in april
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 22:39
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 10, 2024 17:36 |
|
|
Pinterest Mom posted:I think the best argument for Biden is that he's got a tremendous ability to emotionally connect with an audience. That matters. Yeah but everyone who is realistically going to run in 2020 with the exception of possibly Bloomberg, the Zuck, and maybe Warren can do this. Charisma will be cheap and plentiful in 2020.
|
|
#
?
Oct 31, 2018 22:43
|
|