U-DO Burger posted:

otoh the moment he's a senator he shoots back up to the top of trump's poo poo list

Thoguh posted:

Is this pro or anti Democrat?

The Nastier Nate posted:

nah, he's gonna spend 6 years slobbing his knob.

SimonCat posted:

Took this picture today, not sure if it's for or against.

Also, very surreal as I was watching Rob Zombie movies this morning.

Old Story posted:

Red Wave incoming tomorrow because the polls systematically underrepresent the core voting block of REAL AMERICA: scared elderly racists

Trump!

Typo posted:

According to the genuises on betting markets:

Flordia looks good for Dems

Missouri looks bad

AZ looks bad

NV looks good for Dems

Beto/TN are bad for Dems

Typo posted:

According to the genuises on betting markets:

Flordia looks good for Dems

Missouri looks bad

AZ looks bad

NV looks good for Dems

Beto/TN are bad for Dems

Typo posted:

TN are bad for Dems

Ramrod Hotshot posted:

it’s going to be a blue wave, dems take the house by a lot and the 🚨senate🚨 by 1. Trump gets super pissy for the next month, the stock market crashes and roger stone gets arrested.

now just so I don’t get piled on for insufficient cynicism, I’ll also add that “the New Democratic majority” will continue to carry the GOPs water and otherwise not do a gotdang thing.

Xelkelvos posted:

Dems are gonna take the sennate back by 1, but one of them will be Manchin who'll just side with the Republicans making it effectively 50-50 again.

Xelkelvos posted:

Dems are gonna take the sennate back by 1, but one of them will be Manchin who'll just side with the Republicans making it effectively 50-50 again.

PostNouveau posted:

The only Manchin vote that matters is the vote for majority leader.

In theory.

In reality the majority leader would be Chuck Shumer so it doesn't matter a ton. He'd probably STILL cut deals to appoint judges.

PostNouveau posted:

The only Manchin vote that matters is the vote for majority leader.

In theory.

In reality the majority leader would be Chuck Shumer so it doesn't matter a ton. He'd probably STILL cut deals to appoint judges.

Typo posted:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1059564669080399872
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1059565204097429509

PostNouveau posted:

538 podcast went off on how lovely these Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers & National Retail Federation polls are in the last episode.

Shear Modulus posted:

the dems SHOULD put warren as their senate leader, but she's going to run for president (and crash and burn) so she wont try and take the position

PostNouveau posted:

538 podcast went off on how lovely these Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers & National Retail Federation polls are in the last episode.

jarofpiss posted:

you listened to a podcast hosted by a polling company?!!?

cheese eats mouse posted:

our ceo's wife is running for mayor and i can't loving wait to vote against the she chud.

she claims to run our company and we have non existent benefits for families or women

Vox Nihili posted:

Yeah, Hillary pulled this same stunt.

eonwe posted:

didn't she plug a gofundme for one of her staffers that was dying this year?

Shear Modulus posted:

the dems SHOULD put warren as their senate leader, but she's going to run for president (and crash and burn) so she wont try and take the position

Schnorkles posted:

How are the democraps doing? (a handy schnork guide)

There are a lot of competitive races this year, and as such, I don’t really have the time or energy to offer a breakdown on every single one. Instead, I’m going to try and benchmark important races that will suggest certain national trends based on the composition of the electorate.

You will note that I’m talking about the same set of elections in each case, because this is more a sense of “what does this thing look like in the first couple of hours” and not “here’s a comprehensive list of every race that will go in whichever direction.” We'll know, for instance, very quickly what things look like in FL because 60% of the vote will drop basically immediately. If its veering hard one way or the other, the night will basically be comfortably over by 8 pm EST and then its just about how bad the bleeding is.

I have offered 5 handy scenarios and early indicators of each of these scenarios. FWIW, I think its 3 or somewhere between 3 and 4:

1.) RED WAVE

In this universe the republicans (somehow) gain seats in the house and murder the hell out of the democrats in the senate. Completely flying in the face of any information we have, the republicans probably pick up a couple of democratic seats (NV-03, MN-01/07/08, AZ-01, NH-02, potentially FL-07) and only lose 2-3 in the house. In the senate they pick up something like 7 seats.

Early indicators:

- KY-06 is a 10 point republican win.
- Early returns in Indiana have Donnelly down a bunch.
- Early returns in FL look terrible for Nelson/Gillum, probably down between 5 and 10 points in the EV. Salazar winning by 5-10 in FL-27 and Murphy in serious trouble in FL-07.
- Wexton loses narrowly to Comstock in VA-10
- Raimondo loses in RI and Lamont loses in CN.
- Republicans easily hold ME-02 and look safe to hold the governor in Maine.
- NH 1 goes republican, Sununu wins re-election by 20-25 points.
- PA senate/governorship are unexpectedly tight.
- Democrats run tight in NJ-05 and are down in NJ-03/07.

2.) Republican Hold

In this actually possible universe, the republicans keep democratic gains to the high teens in the house and take 2-3 senate seats. They also limit the damage in governorships and keep democratic triplicate gains to only NM/IL. They, against the early vote, manage to mobilize massively in the rurals and hold in Nevada in both topline races, though they still face a democratic supermajority in the state senate there. Based on this mobilization, Tarkanian surprisingly manages to take the open NV-03, giving republicans three total flips along with MN-01 and MN-08. Salazar upsets a weak Shalala in FL-27 and Curbelo coasts to re-election in FL-26. In the rest of the country, the wealthy suburban seats fall (VA-10, CO-06, CA-49), but the republicans limit the damage in the more middle class suburbs like IA-03 and IL-13. Republicans hold the governorship in OH and IA against robust challenges.
In this universe, FL goes to a recount and Abrams loses in GA. Texas, Tennessee, and North Dakota aren’t particularly close in the senate and one of Donnelly, McCaskill and Tester loses as well.

This is much more of a district by district fight, and so early returns are kind of all over the place. But a couple of key indicators can be sussed out I think.

Early Indicators:

- While democrats look comfortable to pick up VA-10, they fall short in the other Virginia benchmarks: VA-02/05/07.
- Barr holds KY-06 against McGrath.
- Early returns in Indiana indicate a tight race between Donnelly and Braun, though Braun is definitely favored.
- ME-02 is 50/50 heading into the later portion of the evening, with the high northern part (which takes forever to report) deciding the race. As its heavily republican, Polinquin almost certainly manages to hold on.
- Salazar (R) is very close in early returns in FL-27.
- Both Gillum and Nelson are only very slightly up in the EV, with more vote to come from the heavily republican parts of the state. Curbelo looks comfortable in FL-26.
- Republicans manage to hold both NC-13 and NC-09.
- None of the NE republican governorships look close. Raimondo/Lamont are tight, but look favorable.
- While democrats pick up a couple seats in PA, they comprehensively lose in PA-08 and PA-10.
- Democrats lose one or both of NJ-3 and NJ-7

3.) Baseline Outcome

This is what the polls suggest is going to happen, and some form of this is the most likely scenario.

Democrats make serious gains in suburban and exurban districts. The statewide Midwest races are a annihilation equivalent to what happened to the Dems in 2016. Dems likely pick up in the neighborhood of 8-10 governors and keep senate loses to a seat at most. House pickup is +35 or so, fueled primarily by districts like VA-05/02, CO-06, MI-08/11, and MN-02/03. UT-04 may or may not be competitive.

Early Indicators:

- Early returns in Virginia indicate the dems are easily winning VA-10. VA-02 is slightly favored and competitive to tied in both VA-05/07.
- KY-06 is really close between Barr and McGrath.
- Early returns in Indiana have Donnelly doing well, especially among his base counties. While the race is tight, probably hedging towards a Donnelly edge.
- Lamont and Raimondo both look solid to safe in NE.
- The race versus Sununu is at least competitive, and Dems look comfortable in NH-01.
- ME-02/Governor is leaning dem early.
- NC-09/13 are both competitive.
- Early returns in FL look solid for Gillum and Nelson as NPAs break heavily in their direction. Shalala, while not as strong as she should be, still manages a solid early lead against Salazar. Curbelo is in the fight of his life.
- Upstate NY comes into play here, as NY-19 and NY-22 are tight but leaming Dem. 1 out of 2 ends up going Dem.
- Four out of the five republican seats in NJ (02/03/05/07) go Democratic.
- PA-08 is real close.

4.) A very good night

This is the upper end of what I’d consider to be a “reasonable” possibility. In this universe, the democrats take the house and narrowly take the senate (51-49) on the back of a shock win from Beto, Heitkamp, or Bredesen. Their gains in the house are close to 60 seats, sweeping significantly more republican seats such as WV-03, FL-15, VA-07, UT-04 etc. It will be fairly clear that we’re at this level initially, because it relies on suburban republicans abandoning the party en masse.

Early Indicators:
- Barr and McGrath are close, but McGrath looks solidly ahead.
- Donnelly performs strongly in early returns and looks set to win early in the night.
- The Dems easily win VA-02/05/10. Early returns put VA-07 as favored to flip democratic.
- One of the two NC seats (09/13) flips quickly, with the other looking very competitive.
- Dems win all 4 seats in NJ and look competitive in NJ-11.
- Dems win easily in Maine. Sununu is in a race in NH.
- Early returns in FL are really good for Dems. Nelson/Gillum look on track to win quickly and FL 26/27 are both firmly in the democratic camp. FL-15 is neck and neck.
- Manchin coasts to re-election and his strength in WV-03 propels Ojeda.
- The GOP gets annihilated in PA, and seats like PA-10 start being in danger.

5.) THE DEMS SCREAM DEATH

https://imgur.com/gallery/6oE77yi

This is the place where things veer into “Uh huh tell me more “ territory. In this universe, the dems manage to get to 53 or 54 senate seats, with Fischer and Hyde-Smith struggling to get re-elected. Somewhere between 80 and 100 seats will go Democratic, with seats like IA-04, TX-02/07/23, and WA-03 all falling in a tidal wave. What were thought to be safely republican seats like CA-21 (Valadao, who is in a democratic district but is very popular) get swept away and the republicans are left with only hard white rural seats. In some places, like MT-AL and AK-AL, they lose these too. In governorships, they lose literally everything except for the reddest states possible (minus Kansas, which they lose by between 5 and 7), and Dean ends up being surprisingly competitive in Tennessee.

Early Indicators:

- Donnelly cruising to re-election by a double digit margin
- Early vote comes in with double digit leads (like.. more than 20) for both Gillum and Nelson. Curbelo is obviously done with the first group of votes and FL-15 is done and dusted by the first live vote drop.
- Democrats are competitive to overwhelming in New England governor’s races currently held by republicans, and win 3 out of 5 in ME, NH, MD, VT and MA.
- ME-02 is called all but immediately for the dems.
- Dems win all 5 seats in NJ, including the very red NJ-11.
- Ojeda wins in WV-03 easily.
- Democratic gains in VA possibly extend past VA-02/05/07/10 and into the republicans literal backyard.
- 3 seats (Nc-09/13/14) in NC flip to Democrats.
- Idk this is basically a fever dream fill in your own adventure here.

DEEP STATE PLOT posted:

prediction: democrats take the senate but not the house as reality collapses in on itself and we all die

DryGoods posted: