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Here's my overall take on yesterday:
Conclusion therefore: We need to keep pushing and fighting as hard as we can, but structural voting reform needs to be a priority, especially where it can be established via ballot initiatives. 
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Nov 7, 2018 16:08
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CAPS LOCK BROKEN posted:For anyone who still think demographics are destiny for the democrats, I would like them to meet the new rep for CA-39 (Orange County), the first korean american woman in congresss who is 100% trumpist.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:09
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Xae posted:They're going to continue to say "there is no point in investigations" right up until they say "This is a very serious accusation that warrants a full and thorough investigation". They're trying to prevent the Republicans from framing any investigations as witch hunts by downplaying their interest in them. Ginette Reno posted:So isn't 2020 a pretty lovely map for the Senate too? If I'm not mistaken vulnerable Republican senators = Cordy Gardner(Col), Susan Collins (Maine), and Thom Tillis (North Carolina). You should probably put winning the Senate out of your mind
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Nov 7, 2018 16:09
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Liquid Communism posted:No. You use the Senate to gerrymander the House districts, and thus depress voter turnout by making it look like nothing matters. The US Senate doesn't draw Congressional lines either.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:09
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Scott Walker just posted this: https://twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/1060183430183510016 hahahahahahahaha
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Nov 7, 2018 16:09
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Xae posted:GOP congressman, who once lamented not being able to call women 'sluts,' loses to a woman. Is there a point to it, though? I doubt that anyone left that either doesn't know the witch hunt thing is bullshit, or hasn't bought it hook, line and sinker from day one and already thinks just voting democratic is treason. Who is the pantomine for, other than 56 Never-Trump blokes in op-ed pages of newspapers fewer people read each day? It's not like she (or whomever gets the job) even needs to come our sharpening knives. Just do a bold speech about his this is a mandate for vigorous transparency, oversight and good governance as well as holding back abuse. Give the base -something- to stay energized and mobilized instead of sending them home to stew until you call upon them again to put out the fires next election. Seeing how things are shaping up here in Brazil, in the US and other places, having your people engaged and on board out of the election season seems to be at least as important as during ballot time.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:10
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Other than the fact that the current administration won't be able to push through any more awful legislation, I can't really see any upside to the dems taking the house. Things staying at status quo still isn't a good thing for the vast majority of Americans. Until the left takes control of the senate (which may not happen for decades until the boomers finish dying off given demographic shifts of liberal voters out of red states), I don't see any way to staunch the bleeding of wealth out of the lower/middle class into the vaults of the upper class. Under current taxation/spending policy, the upper class's share of the nation's wealth will continue to grow while that of the bottom 90% will continue to shrink. Also I'm not really why people are saying trump is "shook" as a result of that tweet he made about Pelosi. Her being Speaker would be best case scenario for republicans given her general lack of a spine and centrist bullshit.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:10
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Here's my overall take on yesterday: Exactly. Be encouraged by last night. It proved Donny Peepants isn't invincible and it proved that polling science (for the most part) has merit again. Democrats have real power on the federal level again and now we can start a proper investigation into Donny's ties to Russia. Adam Schiff now has his hands around Devin Nunes' throat and Maxine Waters can subpoena Donny's underpants if she wants. Although I will say Nate Silver probably woke up to several bricks thrown through his windows. Fritz Coldcockin fucked around with this message at 16:12 on Nov 7, 2018 |
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Nov 7, 2018 16:10
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Liquid Communism posted:No. You use the Senate to gerrymander the House districts, and thus depress voter turnout by making it look like nothing matters. What? House districts are gerrymandered by the states.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:10
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Tibalt posted:The economy going bad is almost certainly a bad thing for Trump. Well it's not like we have crops rotting in the field and plants unable to fulfill orders due to tariffs. Wait, we DO have that?
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Nov 7, 2018 16:10
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Soothing Vapors posted:But Pelosi didn't immediately smear her forehead in lambs' blood and start raving incoherently about vengeance, therefore Dems Bad you see don't pretend you wouldn't love this
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Nov 7, 2018 16:10
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Liquid Communism posted:No. You use the Senate to gerrymander the House districts Condiv posted:don't pretend you wouldn't love this
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Nov 7, 2018 16:11
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Your Taint posted:lol if you believe a single person who voted Republican in 2016 or yesterday would believe it was Trump's fault for a single second. The purestrain trumpists by themselves are a minority. The goal is to swamp them, not to convert them. Democrats win by motivating EVERYONE ELSE, e.g. by convincing them that Trump is bankrupting them.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:11
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Shady Amish Terror posted:Shortish term, continuing to vote so as to deny the assholes semi-legitimate victories makes sense. Direct action makes sense. Gearing up for 2020 makes sense. Being happy for the current victory makes sense. It really is a serious problem. There's still a decent chance we can take the Senate in 2020, but if that doesn't happen, the urban/rural divide seems liable to break the chamber entirely after that point, and the Senate will probably be lost until the next realignment or until global warming floods the coasts and sends Sane America fleeing into the Mad Max interior.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:11
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Aggro posted:Are there any potential Democratic candidates who don’t qualify for Medicare? Bernie and Warren are both on the wrong side of 65. Welcome, friend, to D&D very own place to house such information! My Twitter Account posted:So the Dems aren't going to be so stupid as to actually elect Pelosi speaker again, are they? Frequently floated as a possible progressive contender, Barbara Lee has announced her plan to run for the Caucus Chair, which will be vacant thanks to the efforts of AOC. Her current campaigning for the spot would come in handy in a speakership bid but, for reasons discussed below, I find it more likely she'd run for a vacant position than challenge Pelosi. Part of the concern about a speakership challenge is that the new Dem members of the caucus are largely establishment-friendly candidates in purple and red districts. If progressive Dems couldn't muster a viable challenge after an election that saw Trump's coattails kick out purple and red district establishment Dems in 2016, why would we expect them to succeed in a more establishment-friendly environment? If you want anyone but Pelosi, there's a reasonably solid chance that happens. If you want a Speaker to Pelosi's left, the outlook is bleak.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:11
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in lighter news, rudy's divorce is very funny https://twitter.com/messagetime/status/1060186549638365184
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Nov 7, 2018 16:11
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https://twitter.com/travis_view/status/1060064643987648512
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Nov 7, 2018 16:11
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Fritz Coldcockin posted:You guys probably pissed off my friend's scumbag Trumpist father something fierce. He's a gun nut and after Sandy Hook, when Malloy signed those new gun laws, he got so pissy he actually TAPED OVER the "Constitution State" part of his license plate in protest. CT voters are just by and large brain damaged. When it comes to governors, we've got a real hard on for switching it up to "give the other side a chance." That, Lamont being about as milquetoast as they come, and the fact that everyone around here unfairly blames Malloy for CT's post-recession malaise had me pretty convinced that Stefanowski was going to pull it out. Happy to be wrong, though. I'm family friends with a lot of the CT GOP's leadership and the fact that they just got completely trounced here fills me with joy.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:12
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haveblue posted:Population trends in the US have Democrats concentrating in cities and the sparsely populated areas of the country becoming more Republican. However, since all states have equal representation in the Senate and not all of them have large cities where this is happening, more Senate seats are trending red than are trending blue. It's a sort of implicit natural gerrymander that is expected to lead to Dem senators from urbanized states being elected by huge margins but being outnumbered by GOP senators from rural states with low total voters. That makes sense. But I mean, the end conclusion of this reasoning is that we'll be stuck with a permanently gridlocked legislature, which is clearly not an acceptable outcome. Something will have to be done, but short of a constitutional amendment, which is obviously politically impossible, I can't imagine what that could possibly be.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:12
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Al Borland Corpse posted:Well it's not like we have crops rotting in the field and plants unable to fulfill orders due to tariffs. Yup, drove past a poo poo load of soy and corn being left to rot in fields last night. We've had several frosts and the crop is useless at this point. It wasn't even plowed under which means they plan on leaving the land fallow next year.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:12
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I cannot wait for the impending constitutional crisis when the White House refuses to comply with US House of Rep subpoenas.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:12
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So for the first time I had somebody call me an NPC online. What's a good method, for if this happens in person, to not beat the poo poo out of such a person? Because I'm afraid I might do that and I'd rather not do that.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:13
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Can the House do anything with regards to Kemp?
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Nov 7, 2018 16:13
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Xae posted:GOP congressman, who once lamented not being able to call women 'sluts,' loses to a woman. I gave her $25 when that story came out. I don't think I was the only one, either. Go Angie!
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Nov 7, 2018 16:13
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Your Taint posted:Bill Nelson has officially called for a recount, per CNN. Good Gillum should not have conceded. Lord knows if the margins were reversed DeSantis would not have.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:14
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Chilichimp posted:I cannot wait for the impending constitutional crisis when the White House refuses to comply with US House of Rep subpoenas. that's not what 'constitutional crisis' means, it would require non-compliance, a court order, then ignoring that order
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Nov 7, 2018 16:14
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Paradoxish posted:CT voters are just by and large brain damaged. When it comes to governors, we've got a real hard on for switching it up to "give the other side a chance." That, Lamont being about as milquetoast as they come, and the fact that everyone around here unfairly blames Malloy for CT's post-recession malaise had me pretty convinced that Stefanowski was going to pull it out. We just reelected a Republican governor here in your neighbor to the North by a 2-1 margin. You have nothing on us in terms of dain bramage.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:14
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So here's my thoughts on last night: 1) I think what happened was that the entire election was basically nationalized. Democrats wanted - especially in the Senate - to run individualized races about the tremendously unpopular stuff that Republicans did, like trying to take away people's healthcare. Trump was successful in converting the election into a referendum on him. That worked in the Senate and in red states; it did not work in suburban areas. For Democrats to do as well as we'd hoped Republicans needed to stay home (like Democrats did in 2010 and 2014), but they didn't. This also means that this election was somewhat of a preview of 2020, and I'm not sure I like the results. Pennsylvania and Michigan moved back hard into the Democratic column, but WI is close, Florida stayed Republican, and so did Ohio (Brown's win notwithstanding). I haven't looked at North Carolina, but it looks to me like the Democratic path to unseating Trump in 2020 runs through taking back Pennsylvania and Michigan, and then taking either Wisconsin or North Carolina. My assumption is that if there was a hotly contested governor election where there's not significant crossover support, that's a bellweather for 2020. If there wasn't, the Senate race was (again, assuming no significant crossover support like for Brown or Manchin) the bellweather. If neither of those two existed, I want to look at total house votes per state. My fear is that Democrats won the House by sweeping out the garbage in blue states - NY, NJ, CA, etc - which does not help in a presidential election. 2) This election seems to show that the Trump realignment - rural and uneducated whites to the Republican party, suburbs and urban areas to the Democratic party - is continuing. This is partially good - those suburbs have more people and were key to last night's victories - and deeply problematic, because the Constitution has a heavy, heavy rural bias due to the Senate. 3) A lot of theories about how Democrats can come back in 2020 got tested and I don't know what the results are, but in the next few days we'll have better information. Florida is particularly interesting, as boring uninteresting Nelson and young, charismatic Gillum both lost, and both got about the same amount of votes. I don't know if you can read anything into Nelson getting a tiny bit more votes, but I suspect not. What will be important is why did both lose when they were ahead in the polls? What went wrong on the turnout modeling, what is fixable and not fixable? When looking at individual house races, who won vs. who lost? Where did Dems win vs. lose? This is a hard problem because everyone's strong bias is "they won where they followed my preferred policy and lost where they didn't" (including mine), and it's also going to be hard to tease out issues of candidate quality vs. demographics. But for example, the impression I got (and I have not looked closely today) is that Democrats largely won by flipping suburban districts that used to be Republican and trended strongly towards Clinton, rather than recapturing former Democratic districts that flipped to Trump. If that's it, it may simply be that changing demographics dictated the result and we can't learn much about what the best path forward in 2020 is. But that's a huge amount of information that's really important to dig into. 4) It was so, so, so important to take the House, but the Senate results fill me with dread. All of the viable paths to fixing the country required a Democratic trifecta in 2020 to ram through some key reforms - add PR and DC as states, to counteract the drift of the Senate to a republican lock; voting rights reforms; and popular economic policies that can get passed and will solidify support for Democrats. All of those things will get blocked out of hand by a Republican Senate. I do not know if it's possible to win the Senate now in 2020. If Democrats win the Presidency in 2020 but Republicans keep the Senate, my fear is that Republicans will block anything at all from getting done and Democrats will not turn out in 2022, losing the House and losing the only chance to flip the Senate if they don't in 2020. So that's a kick in the nuts.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:14
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Your Taint posted:lol if you believe a single person who voted Republican in 2016 or yesterday would believe it was Trump's fault for a single second. Bad Economy = Bad President has been very consistent for the last 60+ years.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:14
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Al Borland Corpse posted:So for the first time I had somebody call me an NPC online. What's a good method, for if this happens in person, to not beat the poo poo out of such a person? Because I'm afraid I might do that and I'd rather not do that. If it’s social media, delete it that poo poo is poison.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:15
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Does anyone have any more insight into why GA Gov hasn’t been called? Abrams thinks there’s a line to a runoff but there would need to be about 33k more absentee/provisional votes for either her or the libertarian chin with kemp gaining zero to drop him under 50%.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:15
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eke out posted:that's not what 'constitutional crisis' means, it would require non-compliance, a court order, then ignoring that order it's also a constitutional crisis when a politically stacked court blatantly refuses to enforce the subpoena because it's not in the interests of the Republican party
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Nov 7, 2018 16:15
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Soothing Vapors posted:But Pelosi didn't immediately smear her forehead in lambs' blood and start raving incoherently about vengeance, therefore Dems Bad you see Yes. That is correct.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:15
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Here's my overall take on yesterday: Any assessment that doesn't conclude "but seriously, gently caress Florida racists" is incomplete imo.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:15
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https://twitter.com/Breznican/status/1060181879834329088
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Nov 7, 2018 16:16
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Flaggy posted:Scott Walker just posted this: Burn in hell you Reagan-worshipping sack of poo poo, hope you enjoy unemployment
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Nov 7, 2018 16:16
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Party Plane Jones posted:I'll still be doing tweet dumps which are a) unignorable because I'm a mod and people got really really irate about not being able to just skip over them which I find hilarious and b) I have time to do them not as canvassing/phonebanking is over and Patel lost by 20+ points. I actually put you on my ignore list because of those tweet dumps. You’re the only person on my ignore list.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:16
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Al Borland Corpse posted:So for the first time I had somebody call me an NPC online. What's a good method, for if this happens in person, to not beat the poo poo out of such a person? Because I'm afraid I might do that and I'd rather not do that. Calling someone an NPC means they've gone past "normal" Trumpism into full-blown Internet fash. Beating the poo poo out of them is your patriotic duty, comrade.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:16
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evilweasel posted:but WI is close It shouldn't be, though. Wisconsin is the way it is due to voter suppression. I'm still really mad it was as close as it was for Evers, and Bryce should've won. 
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Nov 7, 2018 16:16
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| # ? May 29, 2024 10:23 |
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Al Borland Corpse posted:So for the first time I had somebody call me an NPC online. What's a good method, for if this happens in person, to not beat the poo poo out of such a person? Because I'm afraid I might do that and I'd rather not do that. Give them a quest to suck 15 dicks in exchange for a trashy pauldron
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