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Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

Harik posted:

"sure, I guess we could do something like m4a but" was a pretty common mouth-noise outside people actually pushing for it. Beto is slightly on the better side because he left out the "but", but he's still not really pushing it. Hence, average. If I cared enough we could try to sample everyone's position on it and find the distribution, but there's a whole lot of people who won't oppose it but are not willing to run on it.

It doesn't make him bad - I'd be thrilled to have someone who won't actively poo poo up the effort - but he's not super progressive.

E: His early campaign was a lot more progressive than his general position, which is tripping people up:
https://twitter.com/betoorourke/status/957834180347547649

End Beto was still actively pushing for "something UHC-y" so I'd actually put him a tiny bit better than that, even. Still not at the forefront with people who were and remained unabashed M4A / Single Payer types, but quite acceptable.

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Doctor Butts
May 21, 2002

UCS Hellmaker posted:

Mcmagic do you live in ohio? Do you know the state Dynamics? The state economy? No? Shut it

Hey: Thank you for not quoting him!

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

RaySmuckles
Oct 14, 2009


:vapes:
Grimey Drawer

corn in the bible posted:

Supreme Justice Ivanka here we come

i mean, as terrible as that would be, it would be kinda awesome insomuch as just a naked display of absolute power

like, i'd be pissed, but also kinda impressed he had the stones to pull it off

BigBallChunkyTime
Nov 25, 2011

Kyle Schwarber: World Series hero, Beefy Lad, better than you.

Illegal Hen
....what in the gently caress his he yammering about?

Mahoning
Feb 3, 2007

my bony fealty posted:

Comedy 2020 option: Kasich runs 3rd party/indie and takes Ohio from Trump leading to a D victort

I'm sure Ohio chuds hate Kasich tho

They do. He currently has a higher approval rating among Democrats than Republicans.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

Harik posted:

No.

You can play the shutdown game of chicken over it, but Dems lose that every time.
To provide actual helpful context, America blames the side that's shutting down the government for partisan reasons, even if they support those reasons.

They tend to assume the Presidential party is the one being partisan, but not always.

Stalins Moustache
Dec 31, 2012

~~**I'm Italian!**~~
What the gently caress is he talking about?

Involuntary Sparkle
Aug 12, 2004

Chemo-kitties can have “accidents” too!

https://twitter.com/MSNBC/status/1060212172578525185

Cool and normal

The Glumslinger
Sep 24, 2008

Coach Nagy, you want me to throw to WHAT side of the field?


Hair Elf

Unoriginal Name posted:

So we can defund ICE with budget control now, right?

Kinda

We can do it in the house, but no certainties on that being able to pass the Senate. It will probably result in decreased funding and a lot rules to prevent the shifting of money around inside of DHS

RaySmuckles
Oct 14, 2009


:vapes:
Grimey Drawer

jesus christ, what a name

Phoix
Jul 20, 2006




Alright he learned how to say the word "industry" this is a body double

eke out
Feb 24, 2013



"If they investigate me, I'll make the Senate investigate them" is still the most hilariously empty threat

i think there's a reason you don't see any republican senators on said investigative committees endorsing this

Saxophone
Sep 19, 2006


Missouri goon. Our state voted for medical marijuana, a tax increase for infrastructure, and for a minimum wage increase to $12 over the next 5 years.


....and then we voted blood red for all of our representatives. I don't know how you appeal to people that seem to love progressive ideals, but won't pull the lever for progressive candidates.

That said, McCaskill was anything but progressive, granted, but the results are a headscratcher.

Stalins Moustache
Dec 31, 2012

~~**I'm Italian!**~~
Air and water has to be perfect.

Harik
Sep 9, 2001

From the hard streets of Moscow
First dog to touch the stars


Plaster Town Cop
Florida recount: the loser gets it it for free if the tally is within 0.5%. If that ends up within 0.25% it goes to a hand recount because that's somehow "better" and more reliable.

Since Nelson has indicated he will request the recount, and the first recount is via machine, does that change the governor's race as well or is it limited to the race being recounted?

I live here and I don't actually know how that works.

Dick Trauma
Nov 30, 2007

God damn it, you've got to be kind.
https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1060219280917233665

https://twitter.com/dril/status/1060213035074183169

https://twitter.com/ariehkovler/status/1059426367182458880

Dick Trauma fucked around with this message at 18:19 on Nov 7, 2018

Retro42
Jun 27, 2011


A direct quote: “Environmental is very important to me.”

Goddamnitsomuch America.

Admiral Joeslop
Jul 8, 2010




I live in Indiana which pretty much completely poo poo the bed in every way. I'm still inspired for 2020.

Mahoning
Feb 3, 2007
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1060219626724954112

Thaddius the Large
Jul 5, 2006

It's in the five-hole!

TulliusCicero posted:

How does Tester keep winning his Senate seat in loving Montana? What pact with Satan has that guy made?

Is Montana more blue than I thought? I read somewhere they trend more towards liberterian than outright conservative.

The hot take that Trumpism is stronger even though multiple states and rejected it and the House is dem is really loving stupid.

I don’t think I saw anyone else address the question, but yes, Montana is much more blue than you thought, I’ve said for years that on a federal level they’re purple if not outright blue. State level stuff is super weird and somewhat reddish, Montana definitely has plenty of rural red voters, libertarian nuts, and lots of Nazis have been moving there, but there are several college towns with growing tech and business centers (Missoula especially, and somewhat Bozeman) that lend themselves to a bunch progressives, and Missoula prides itself on having a ton of burnt out hippies to make things weird. Billings and Kalispell are big enough to have somewhat of a Democratic base, albeit not “urban” (read racially diverse) by ANY stretch of the imagination. Lastly, places like Butte have massive labor roots, thanks to the mining and lumber industries, and while that obviously has died out in recent decades, the foundation still exists. So yeah, it’s a mixed bag, but nowhere near Kansas or Missouri levels of chuddish hellscape.

BigglesSWE
Dec 2, 2014

How 'bout them hawks news huh!
https://twitter.com/acosta/status/1060217638268346368?s=21

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


anyone making definitive predictions about 2020 has their head up their rear end, as did anyone two years ago making definitive predictions about last night

Framboise
Sep 21, 2014

To make yourself feel better, you make it so you'll never give in to your forevers and live for always.


Lipstick Apathy

Admiral Joeslop posted:

I live in Indiana which pretty much completely poo poo the bed in every way. I'm still inspired for 2020.

Also from Indiana. Honestly what did you expect? You can't go into an election here expecting anything but the worst. Not like Donnelly was much of a Democrat anyway.

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

That's fair but it seems like a bit of a semantic argument over what we mean by "break." Like, if the national gerrymander were a dam, there would be a lot of extra water flowing through it right now.

Well the gerrymander was also weakened nationally by court mandated redistricting in places like PA and New Jersey, where Democrats made a lot of their gains.

Admittedly my entire point was semantic. A "wave" election is not rigorously defined. Its important for Democrats to be proud right now of their successes, and hopefully maintain momentum for the next two years. Winning by seven points demonstrates impressive popular support for the Democrats.

Its also understand why despite that popular groundswell gains were more limited than many people hoped. To reuse the dam metaphor, I would say the dam didn't break, but the emergency spill way definitely kicked in and there's erosion at the base. Unfortunately with the way districts are set up there's a big difference between winning by 7 and winning by 9 or 10, but maybe if the economy goes belly up Democrats can add another couple points to that margin.

corn in the bible
Jun 5, 2004

Oh no oh god it's all true!

Harik posted:

Florida recount: the loser gets it it for free if the tally is within 0.5%. If that ends up within 0.25% it goes to a hand recount because that's somehow "better" and more reliable.

Since Nelson has indicated he will request the recount, and the first recount is via machine, does that change the governor's race as well or is it limited to the race being recounted?

I live here and I don't actually know how that works.

Just that race that went to a recount

BigglesSWE
Dec 2, 2014

How 'bout them hawks news huh!
https://twitter.com/acosta/status/1060219262894333958?s=21

Soothing Vapors
Mar 26, 2006

Associate Justice Lena "Kegels" Dunham: An uncool thought to have: 'is that guy walking in the dark behind me a rapist? Never mind, he's Asian.
https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1060220494782361604

I feel like Daniel is getting close to the breaking point

Xombie
May 22, 2004

Soul Thrashing
Black Sorcery

UCS Hellmaker posted:

Ohio might be redlocked unless something major happens now, mainly if tarriffs or healthcare a toons start destroying the active parts of the economy. Least sherrod won :unsmith:

The problem is that Kasich's hard-line nevertrumper stance has given cover to a lot of "centrist" conservatives in Ohio to feel just fine voting straight-ticket R.

Dick Trauma
Nov 30, 2007

God damn it, you've got to be kind.
https://twitter.com/CelesteHeadlee/status/1060148454515765248

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

goethe.cx posted:

anyone making definitive predictions about 2020 has their head up their rear end, as did anyone two years ago making definitive predictions about last night
There will definitely be an election.

Inglonias
Mar 7, 2013

I WILL PUT THIS FLAG ON FREAKING EVERYTHING BECAUSE IT IS SYMBOLIC AS HELL SOMEHOW

Framboise posted:

Also from Indiana. Honestly what did you expect? You can't go into an election here expecting anything but the worst. Not like Donnelly was much of a Democrat anyway.

This was basically how I got through last night without crying. Expected the worst, and we got better than that.

That said, we're all still hosed and all going to die, things can only get worse, dems are a waste etc. etc.

BigBallChunkyTime
Nov 25, 2011

Kyle Schwarber: World Series hero, Beefy Lad, better than you.

Illegal Hen
lol Trump stammering about tax returns and law firms

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound

GreyjoyBastard posted:

End Beto was still actively pushing for "something UHC-y" so I'd actually put him a tiny bit better than that, even. Still not at the forefront with people who were and remained unabashed M4A / Single Payer types, but quite acceptable.

Yeah. I mean, Beto was never AOC but he's significantly to the left of the stated positions of most Democrats and pretending he isn't gives him less credit than he deserves and the rest of the Democrats more.

Blitz of 404 Error
Sep 19, 2007

Joe Biden is a top 15 president
If Beto was a gun owner he'd be a Senator

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

Mahoning posted:

We don't have to pretend. We have results last night that show that it doesn't really win. At least not yet. Progressives won in some Safe D places (and rightfully so....there's no reason we should be running centrists in Safe D seats), but not a single progressive won a statewide race or a competitive race.

I'm dubious of both the "if we primary out Manchin with a communist we'll lock in WV forever" and the "progressivism in less blue states plain doesn't work" propositions.

Progressive candidates in red states performed well, just not quite well enough.

you might say that the truth may be... in the middle :ohdear:

also in any individual race including Manchin I'd rather see a progressive win the primary so it's more of an intellectual exercise / philosophical disagreement with, uh, people like mcmagic

Slow News Day
Jul 4, 2007

Your Taint posted:

lol Trump stammering about tax returns and law firms

good, good

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

Democrats trying to win the presidency without Florida is going to not be easy for the foreseeable future.

Paracaidas
Sep 24, 2016
Consistently Tedious!

evilweasel posted:

Florida just voted for two terrible people; sure, they enfranchised felons so the electorate will change a little, but Republicans have two years to try to "fix" that.

40% of the state's black male voting age population. 1.4m voters total, more than the voting age population of 12 states. 10% of Florida's voting age population.

The GOP can absolutely screw many of those folks over, and the court costs and fees aspect will make that number dwindle further. But I think you're flagrantly underestimating the impact of this.

UCS Hellmaker posted:

Mcmagic do you live in ohio? Do you know the state Dynamics? The state economy? No? Shut it
He is somewhat of an expert on the mindset of racist antisemitic homophobes though!


Tibalt posted:

To provide actual helpful context, America blames the side that's shutting down the government for partisan reasons, even if they support those reasons.

They tend to assume the Presidential party is the one being partisan, but not always.
The bigger issue is one of fundamental philosophy. Democrats, and their supporters,believe that government programs and responsibilities are (for the most part) good things that improve and save lives and should continue, even when the GOP controls the government.

Republicans believe that (most) federal programs and responsibilities are illegitimate and bad, even when the GOP controls the government.

Sinistral
Jan 2, 2013
Here's a Miami Herald article that argues that it was the FBI investigation coupled with the last minute accusations by his Adam Corey that ultimately doomed Gillum's campaign. It was a non issue in the primary so the campaign was unprepared when it became one of the main issues of the race.

quote:

After Gillum won the primary, his campaign held focus groups to test just how damaging the coming attacks on the FBI investigation would be. His Democratic opponents never raised the issue, so Gillum’s team gathered voters to hear about details of the probe and then watch recorded interviews of Gillum defending himself. The outcome: voters had questions, but felt reassured when they heard Gillum’s explanations.

It was a media distraction, at best, his campaign always believed. “It helped that he had the truth on his side,” said one insider.

But Gillum’s campaign appeared to have a blind spot. Gillum was already walking a tightrope — selling the nation’s largest swing state on a liberal agenda he adopted in the primary. Not only were they wrong about his ability to rally Democrats enough to overcome a historical midterm malaise and capitalize on anti-Trump sentiment, they were wrong about the liability posed by the FBI investigation.

If all this seems kinda familiar well...

quote:

It was shades of Decision 2016, when Hillary Clinton led Trump all the way until election day and then collapsed beneath the weight of a James Comey FBI probe. On Tuesday, after Gillum led in just about every poll, the bottom gave out on his campaign for governor.
And in Florida, the phrase “But her emails...” may be replaced by, “But his ‘Hamilton’ ticket.”

:shepicide:

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Teddybear
May 16, 2009

Look! A teddybear doll!
It's soooo cute!


mcmagic posted:

Democrats trying to win the presidency without Florida is going to not be easy for the foreseeable future.

Hopefully the consequences of Amendment 4 will help Dems in the future cycles.

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