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motherbox posted:Massachusetts is the lovely faux progressive capitol of the country. Any socially liberal policy is fine and we pay lip service the working class, but the minute organized action by labor has even the imagined threat of inconveniencing our day most people go full FYGM. Why do you think the state has such a "moderate" Republican governor fetish? yep
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Nov 7, 2018 18:48
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Chinatown posted:is fat gently caress angry this morning or what https://twitter.com/waltshaub/status/1060223898501824513
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Nov 7, 2018 18:50
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Anyone have a good site other than NYT that lets me dig into state ballot results along with everything else?
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Nov 7, 2018 18:50
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Relentlessboredomm posted:Anyone have a good site other than NYT that lets me dig into state ballot results along with everything else? state secretary of state / election commission websites
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Nov 7, 2018 18:51
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Stefan Prodan posted:i don't even get why the needle works the way it does I feel like they're too lazy to model it in a way that accounts for the different compositions of the precincts as they are reported live maybe, like oh man a big city reported IT'S ALL BLUE BABY oh no now it's the countryside and it's all rurals SWING THE NEEDLE
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Nov 7, 2018 18:52
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Harlock posted:BREAKING: Sen. Bill Nelson's camp says there will be a recount in race with Rick Scott Breaking news: the results of the Florida recount are in. Rick Scott has expanded his lead to a BAJILLION votes, Bill Nelson throws himself into the sea in shame.
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Nov 7, 2018 18:59
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This poo poo owns orange man is mad
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Nov 7, 2018 19:00
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https://twitter.com/shaunking/status/1060215132998062080?s=19 wonder how much stacey would have won by if Kemp had been banned from overseeing his own loving election what a lovely country
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Nov 7, 2018 19:10
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lmao california voted against the rent control proposition, and against the one that would attempt to reign in predatory dialysis companies but prop 12 passed so at least the chickens will lead more comfortable lives!!!!!!!!!!!!! cool priorities there californians
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Nov 7, 2018 19:10
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how did the climate change propositions do
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Nov 7, 2018 19:12
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Damo posted:lmao california voted against the rent control proposition, and against the one that would attempt to reign in predatory dialysis companies Lol look up prop 11
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Nov 7, 2018 19:13
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Clipperton posted:how did the climate change propositions do lol take a guess
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Nov 7, 2018 19:15
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Clipperton posted:how did the climate change propositions do Got trounced in Arizona. Reddit response is "IT DIDN'T INCLUDE NUCLEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" as the excuse for voting it down, with a few honest people admitting they just didn't want to pay.
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Nov 7, 2018 19:15
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tester winning also destroys the narrative that the only dem to vote for the rapist judge kept their seat which is also nice
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Nov 7, 2018 19:15
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Clipperton posted:how did the climate change propositions do They all failed, death is certain.
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Nov 7, 2018 19:16
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Clipperton posted:how did the climate change propositions do the only one I've seen succeed is the initiative to ban offshore drilling (and indoor vaping) in florida and I'm sure that was more people being mad about their beaches than concern for climate change
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Nov 7, 2018 19:19
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Stefan Prodan posted:i don't even get why the needle works the way it does nah that's absurd - the whole point is to predict it ahead of time and pretending each contest has anywhere close to even odds is daft as hell and more misleading than the wildly jumping needle its fairly obvious where the prediction went "wrong" - results tend to be associated (i.e. if one party overperforms vs. pre-election polls here its probably going to overperform over there as well) and the model correctly takes this into account this works well when such a model has enough data to draw on, but can pretty easily be made subject to wild swings if it's trying to extrapolate from very early results where races are called early/only results from small rural counties/precincts are in - i.e. even if a state is ultimately going something like 6 D to 4 R the model is going to interpret the partial data as Democratic underperformance/a coming Republican wave if it's being told there are 3 R victories locked in and 7 races undecided
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Nov 7, 2018 19:19
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Anyone doing a "this is fine" take about last night needs to take a peek at the 2020 Senate map and run the math on Dems getting to 50 seats in that race. It's going to be ugly. There are two "easy" pickups, after which Dems will need to be holding Alabama and flipping states like North Carolina and South Carolina just to reach 50.
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Nov 7, 2018 19:20
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Vox Nihili posted:Everyone doing a "this is fine" take about last night needs to take a peek at the 2020 Senate map and run the math on Dems getting to 50 seats in that race. It's going to be ugly. Isn't that a good map for them?
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Nov 7, 2018 19:20
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Lawman 0 posted:Isn't that a good map for them? colorado is an easy pick up north carolina, georgia, kansas, maine and alaska are all potential dem targets maybe even kentucky, iowa, or tennessee again alabama is the only reasonable republican target
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Nov 7, 2018 19:24
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article about 2020 senate: https://theweek.com/speedreads/806258/midterms-disaster-democrats-2020-senate-hopes It's not great but it isn't like 2018 was great either
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Nov 7, 2018 19:24
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Lawman 0 posted:Isn't that a good map for them? It's not. It's "good" in the sense that there are many GOP seats up for election. But they're mostly in the Midwest and South. Pickup options, easy to hard: Colorado, Maine, Iowa, North Carolina, Arizona, Texas Kentucky, Arkansas... Need to hold: Alabama, New Hampshire, Virginia Need to get a +4 and with Jones DoA basically need to flip 5 seats. Tonight's vote margins wouldn't cut it.
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Nov 7, 2018 19:25
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Tyrgle posted:They all failed, death is certain. brb gonna spend more time with my kid before he gets smart enough to realize my whole generation are sociopathic fygm shitheads and treats me accordingly
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Nov 7, 2018 19:27
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Deceptive Thinker posted:colorado is an easy pick up Yeah, Alabama isn't so much a reasonable target as an auto-win. Republicans will target NH, Michigan, and Virginia as well. If they flip one such state the Dems basically have 0 chance of getting to 50.
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Nov 7, 2018 19:28
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Dems now have full control of the Maine state senate + gov, so maybe they get some boost from that in terms of voter registration/GOTV efforts Colorado's state senate also flipped
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Nov 7, 2018 19:28
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can this person please loving die already
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Nov 7, 2018 19:29
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anotherone posted:article about 2020 senate: https://theweek.com/speedreads/806258/midterms-disaster-democrats-2020-senate-hopes trump is going to be on the ballot in 2020 and that will make a world of difference in turnout imo
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Nov 7, 2018 19:29
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is FL still in question or what
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Nov 7, 2018 19:29
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Ashmole posted:is FL still in question or what FL is unquestionably garbage
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Nov 7, 2018 19:30
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Ashmole posted:is FL still in question or what Florida is pulling a Florida
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Nov 7, 2018 19:31
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Ashmole posted:is FL still in question or what Technically, yes.
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Nov 7, 2018 19:36
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All things considered, I'm happy Scott Walker finally ate poo poo and I wish he had to spend the rest of his life rotting in a loving cell. God, gently caress that sack of poo poo.
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Nov 7, 2018 19:37
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Vox Nihili posted:Yeah, Alabama isn't so much a reasonable target as an auto-win. Republicans will target NH, Michigan, and Virginia as well. If they flip one such state the Dems basically have 0 chance of getting to 50. if the GOP wins a 2020 senator in Virginia or Michigan it's because they already won the presidency, I guess NH is a unique enough state that that's possible. Win Maine + Colorado + North Carolina + Iowa, lose Doug Jones, win one more chud state can happen, there are like 20 chud states up next cycle.
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Nov 7, 2018 19:37
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george soros irl posted:would DC have tiered state and local government(s) too? why not tbh, there's exactly one county in my state with a higher population than the smallest DC ward just do state/ward/block government instead of state/county/town, apart from probably not having block highway departments the biggest change would probably be state-level zoning (which really the whole country should have)
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Nov 7, 2018 19:43
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honestly the best part of the midterm for me is california voting to join the civilized states in having a permanent standard timezone
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Nov 7, 2018 19:44
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Rick posted:Yeah in recent years senate races have been super red in Maricopa (although purple trends in other areas in the county, it just seems though that for national elections they're going to vote republican) so this is actually a pretty strong performance for Sinema regardless. Y'all currently have 11 precincts remaining and she needs 16,000 votes. 4 of those precincts are in Puma county somewhere. It's possible but lol  The map in 2020 is gonna be tough but not as godawful as this one. Still, I can only see 4 seats max that could turn for the Dems as of right now, and you also have to factor in that Doug Jones is absolutely going to lose his seat, so that would be a potential net gain of 3 seats. Unless we can get Beto to run again in Texas. And loving actually get latinos to turn out. that's one thing i've learned in this election: the latino vote is absolutely godawful at turnout -- I'm assuming bc of voter suppression but holy christ
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Nov 7, 2018 19:44
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https://twitter.com/Newsweek/status/1060240496633749504
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Nov 7, 2018 19:48
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It's pretty funny how hard 2016 hosed the Dems lol.
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Nov 7, 2018 19:51
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obama really should've declared the martial law everyone said he was gonna declare
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Nov 7, 2018 19:52
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alnilam posted:Yeah there are good and bad things about Bad Dems losing in the senate. In the short term it might be worse than it is better but in the longer term hopefully it will send a message to bad dems which is good uh excuse me sir, Mr President, PhD, sir but uhh when the gently caress have the Dems ever learned a goddamn lesson
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Nov 7, 2018 19:54
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