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rscott posted:The national vote margin is shaping up to be a lot closer than what the polls were saying, I wonder why. 538s final margin was like D 9.2 and it's sitting around 4.7 right now. There's still a lot of votes to count on the west coast and stuff, I get that, but I don't think it's going to move much over 6, if that. Given that context, the number of seats the Democrats picked up seems to be pretty good. The pre-election polls were generic congressional ballots. The dynamic is similar to where Generic Republican was soundly beating Obama in 11/12 but he had head-to-head advantages against the field. Involving actual people changes things. At least, I think? I'll never forgive the GOP for nominating Romney instead of Pawlenty, depriving us of our first chance to test the theory.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:43
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Worrying about handing Trump 2020 on a platter by being obstructionists seems premature to me. He had constant meltdowns when they controlled every branch. Let's see what kind of wild poo poo he does to self destruct once the actual full court press hits him.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:43
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Oxxidation posted:see you in 2020! I queued a week for this by the way, don't do garbage like this.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:43
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F_Shit_Fitzgerald posted:That worries me too. The pundits on MSNBC last night were pointing out that Democrats had a tough path to walk in the next few years: holding Trump accountable while fulfilling their promises to voters on health care and other issues. Too much Benghazi-like investigations and it could look to voters like Democrats were throwing everything at the wall to see what might stick. Class war, with conscripts drafted by the promise of Medicare for All, free education and student loan forgiveness, and housing and food as a human right.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:43
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Z. Autobahn posted:*Every* party promises to materially help them, but only one party promises they *won't* help black/immigrant/gay people. That's the one poor whites turn out for. No, the Republicans, like all conservative political parties, basically run on "you're in the overclass and it's great, the other guys want to get rid of these classes or are the party of the underclass, do you want to lose your privilege?" They run on fear of loss and always have.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:44
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:The demographics in 2020 will be oh so slightly more favored for Dems compared to this year and 2 years ago and considering by how slimly Trump won by that alone might be enough. tbh I think the understated factor in all the analysis of yesterday is 'candidate personality'. I'd have to dive deeper to be confident, but I think pretty consistently the overperformers where the candidates with strong, vibrant personalities (regardless of where they fell on the left/center/right scale) and the underperformers were the boring old fucks.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:44
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Megaman's Jockstrap posted:Do some of you honestly think that a poor person being told "hey you deserve healthcare, you can get a guaranteed job, you deserve dignity and not to be squeezed and commodified" is going to reject that message because the person saying it is racist and the message belongs to the political party that passed the Civil Rights Act? They're gonna reject becuase Fox News will frame it as killing jobs (taxes for healthcare and infrastructure) and hurting them. Do you not remember how Fox News spent 4 years talking about the ACA Death Panels? It wasn't a nuanced discussion about why it would fail to control spiraling prescription prices or unable to stop the hospital consolidation. They weren't talking about how it was market based solution that was dependent on the cooperation of local states and buy-in from insurers who hated the mild limits on profit. It was all "Death Panels! They're gonna make you wait in line like in CANADA! Socialized medicine! Job killing taxes!" The information bubble makes it hard to get the details of poo poo through to the target audience.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:44
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Z. Autobahn posted:*Every* party promises to materially help them, but only one party promises they *won't* help black/immigrant/gay people. That's the one poor whites turn out for. Poor whites, same as most poor people, mostly just don't turn out.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:44
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All of us https://twitter.com/Gender_Pirate/status/1060247367218327554
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Nov 8, 2018 01:45
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Megaman's Jockstrap posted:No, the Republicans, like all conservative political parties, basically run on "you're in the overclass and it's great, the other guys want to get rid of these classes or are the party of the underclass, do you want to lose your privilege?" They run on fear of loss and always have. did... did you see Trump's 2016 campaign? His whole thing was that America has been ruined, America has fallen apart, America has abandoned jobs, America has gone to hell, etc. He didn't run on a fear of loss, he ran on a STATE of loss (thanks, Obama) and promised to fix it. Which is basically what you're saying.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:45
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Zas posted:the most immediate problem to the United States will be mass migration from the global south and the resulting inflammation of our already intense white nationalist problem yeah that part is significantly more immediate than the rest of this poo poo buuuuut by then we'll be something like 30% Hispanic and 15% black so it's hard to say what exactly that looks like also, guess who'll be building those massive seawalls
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Nov 8, 2018 01:45
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Megaman's Jockstrap posted:No, the Republicans, like all conservative political parties, basically run on "you're in the overclass and it's great, the other guys want to get rid of these classes or are the party of the underclass, do you want to lose your privilege?" They run on fear of loss and always have. Trump ran on Making America Great Again, that's not a fear of loss message.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:45
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https://twitter.com/Bonn1eGreer/status/1060330811302576129 https://twitter.com/sarahkendzior/status/1060259716209799168
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Nov 8, 2018 01:46
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Tatsuta Age posted:All of us I mean tbqh in the face of global warming, yeah it kinda should be. Electoralism isn't producing progress quick enough for how much damage to the environment is occurring. ^ get the gently caress in 
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Nov 8, 2018 01:46
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Looks like MoveOn is spinning up nationwide protests for tomorrow night in regards to Mueller now being vulnerable.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:46
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Megaman's Jockstrap posted:African Americans dumped the political party that freed them from slavery because they weren't responsive to their material needs anymore. If you think poor whites who don't vote, which is the majority of them btw are going to turn on someone that promises to materially help them because they belong to the party that passed the Civil Rights Act 50 years ago...lol. Ok buddy. I mean that's literally what happened with President Obama and Hillary Clinton. They like the policies, they don't want to share if black and latinos will see any benefit from it. Why do you think Newt Gingrich was so successful with welfare queen rhetoric?
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Nov 8, 2018 01:47
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https://twitter.com/Acosta/status/1060332691143491584
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Nov 8, 2018 01:47
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Grape posted:On this topic I've been thinking. I'm kind of all over the place on it -- that is to say I don't disagree with you, and I may be comparing Apples to Oranges, but after living through 9/11 I'm not personally thrilled on counting the country to come together after or in the face of disaster.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:47
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Phi230 posted:Very good functional democracy Gillum conceded. I don't think this dream of yours will happen.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:48
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Just got an event message from my local MoveOn for action following Sessions being fired (or lol, "asked to resign"). Anyone else get this? Will there be turnout for it?
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Nov 8, 2018 01:48
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Paracaidas posted:The pre-election polls were generic congressional ballots. The dynamic is similar to where Generic Republican was soundly beating Obama in 11/12 but he had head-to-head advantages against the field. Involving actual people changes things. I can see that for one nationwide race but shouldn't the aggregate vote track pretty closely to the GCB? 4% is a pretty huge margin.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:48
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Sooooo is there a reason that neither this thread nor the Russia thread are discussing the fact that Jeff Sessions resigned earlier today at the behest of Trump, potentially putting the Mueller probe in danger? https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1060256623439110146 Because that's a thing that happened.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:48
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https://twitter.com/Acosta/status/1060332691143491584?s=19
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Nov 8, 2018 01:49
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https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1060331883077296128
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Nov 8, 2018 01:49
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Brony Car posted:Gillum conceded. I don't think this dream of yours will happen. I believe a politician conceding doesn't actually change anything electorally. Its merely a symbolic gesture of good governance.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:49
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Lightning Knight posted:I mean tbqh in the face of global warming, yeah it kinda should be. Electoralism isn't producing progress quick enough for how much damage to the environment is occurring. There's a lot of charts and graphs assailing electoralism in this article: https://medium.com/@andrewdobbs/no-voting-democrat-is-not-harm-reduction-8cda28633858
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Nov 8, 2018 01:49
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I'm not optimistic about Florida because the deficit is 30k and afaik the most a recount has ever flipped, in recent years, is 1.5k. Really loving praying for Arizona though...
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Nov 8, 2018 01:50
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BlueberryCanary posted:Sooooo is there a reason that neither this thread nor the Russia thread are discussing the fact that Jeff Sessions resigned earlier today at the behest of Trump, potentially putting the Mueller probe in danger? We already discussed it, but its hard to know the fallout yet. Its also not as dire as it would have been before, since House Dems can continue the investigation Also, this is why we're talking about Beto so much https://twitter.com/annehelen/status/1060287098052329472
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Nov 8, 2018 01:50
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BlueberryCanary posted:Sooooo is there a reason that neither this thread nor the Russia thread are discussing the fact that Jeff Sessions resigned earlier today at the behest of Trump, potentially putting the Mueller probe in danger? It was discussed in both, and you are free to continue discussing it. I don't really see a path for Democrats to effectively block him from killing the investigation and I doubt there's going to be mass turnout to protect Mueller's position.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:50
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Such a strong and tough man.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:50
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Brony Car posted:Gillum conceded. I don't think this dream of yours will happen. Conceded doesn't actually have any concrete standing, iirc someone did it a few years ago and then unconceded and won.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:50
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i don't know who Lady Seven is but i nominate her for president based on her attire
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Nov 8, 2018 01:50
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BlueberryCanary posted:Sooooo is there a reason that neither this thread nor the Russia thread are discussing the fact that Jeff Sessions resigned earlier today at the behest of Trump, potentially putting the Mueller probe in danger? Go back to when it was announced and scroll and see it being discussed
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Nov 8, 2018 01:51
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Trump could be ordering CNN reporters into a gulag and they'd air a panel with Corey Lewandowski and Donna Brazile to discuss it.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:51
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Grape posted:Why the hell are you trying to compare now to the Bronze Age. Also, real talk, if you were a farmer, poo poo was probably better without some rear end in a castle demanding tribute once Ramses III settled the Sea People in Canaan. The archaeology of so-called Greek Dark Age sites is just people doing the same farming poo poo they were doing before, without some rear end taking their poo poo while sitting on their butt in a palace.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:51
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 That's hosed up, what incident are they referring to?
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Nov 8, 2018 01:51
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It’s amazing that we broke the gerrymander as well as we did with just a 6ish point win. 37 seats would have been seen as a good result with a 9 point win.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:51
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lol, donald mad
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Nov 8, 2018 01:51
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Trabisnikof posted:Trump ran on Making America Great Again, that's not a fear of loss message. Yeah it's almost like if neither party offers anyone anything materially they become ripe for a fascist strongman who promises them a return to the glory days and perpetual membership in the overclass. Anyway you could write hundreds of pages on this, just read The Reactionary Mind which is a great book.
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Nov 8, 2018 01:51
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Megaman's Jockstrap posted:African Americans dumped the political party that freed them from slavery because they weren't responsive to their material needs anymore. If you think poor whites who don't vote, which is the majority of them btw are going to turn on someone that promises to materially help them because they belong to the party that passed the Civil Rights Act 50 years ago...lol. Ok buddy. You're making an interesting historical point. I'm not going to criticize that as your explanation is plausible and I'm not otherwise educated on the subject. However there is a large body of empirical evidence on how people very consistently vote against their material interests. http://nathanwoods1.tripod.com/PDF/sears_etal.pdf Self-Interest vs Symbolic Interest in Policy Attitudes and Presidential Voting  This tendency was well illustrated in 2016 when farmers went strongly for Trump and Republicans, even though Trump's anti-immigration rhetoric (and then policy) was objectively and obviously terrible for their business interests. Squalid fucked around with this message at 01:53 on Nov 8, 2018 |
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