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Kimsemus
Dec 4, 2013

by Reene
Toilet Rascal

Munkeymon posted:

I very well may be using the wrong legal term, but my understanding is that a different test is applied to laws restricting abortions and laws restricting murder fetish purchases. All they have to do is slowly alter the former test until it's only unconstitutional to deny access to abortion if the law states a clinic must be in an aircraft connected to a level one trauma center by a paper mache tunnel or something.

Guns are probably a bad example, since they are constitutionally protected and therefore not a valid comparison to abortion.

Now that I think about it more critically, overturning abortion would be way, way easier.

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Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

corn in the bible posted:

Doug Jones loving sucks dude

For a Democrat from Alabama he's further left than any of the Blue Dogs that lost Tuesday night except maybe Bill Nelson.

friendbot2000
May 1, 2011

corn in the bible posted:

Doug Jones loving sucks dude

If you read my post...I never said anything positive about him. I stated that there is a large voting block that carried him to victory.

Mr Ice Cream Glove
Apr 22, 2007

Here we go

https://mobile.twitter.com/nbc6/status/1060182500188786688

FuturePastNow
May 19, 2014


Hieronymous Alloy posted:

Side discussion:

What are the realistic odds of taking the senate back in 2020?

I think that depends entirely on what level of enthusiasm Dems can muster for their Presidential candidate. Someone who was as like-able and competent at campaigning as Obama will probably drag up a lot of other races. Running Hillary again would probably flip the House back to red.

corn in the bible
Jun 5, 2004

Oh no oh god it's all true!

Kimsemus posted:

Guns are probably a bad example, since they are constitutionally protected and therefore not a valid comparison to abortion.

Now that I think about it more critically, overturning abortion would be way, way easier.

Yes, all they have to do is decide abortion isn't constitutionally protected and then it's all out the window regardless

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

What happens when Scott puts the Imperius Curse on the people in charge of the recount though :ohdear:

KickerOfMice
Jun 7, 2017

[/color]Keep firing, assholes![/color]

Spaceballs the custom title.
Fun Shoe

friendbot2000 posted:

If you read my post...I never said anything positive about him. I stated that there is a large voting block that carried him to victory.

I'll say something positive. He's not a child molester. Good lord the closeness of that race. :911:

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

corn in the bible posted:

Doug Jones loving sucks dude

Sure but he isn’t the pedophile Roy or klansmen Jeff sessions.

eke out
Feb 24, 2013




this is a day old, the question is whether the recount will be machine or by hand because the count's not done yet

https://twitter.com/dwbeard/status/1060543156738015234

corn in the bible
Jun 5, 2004

Oh no oh god it's all true!

It doesn't seem like this fixes the problem--recounts never overturn races and certainly not ones as far apart as that one was

Doktor Avalanche
Dec 30, 2008

friendbot2000 posted:

I don't think this is true. Doug Jones won through the votes of black men and women. We can do that again. Texas showed us that EVERY state can be competitive. Democrats just need a candidate with charisma that will bring people to the polls. I know that things look bleak because...Alabama, but every state can be won if you run an actual person and not an empty suit.

He also won because he was running against a guy who got banned from malls for creeping on underage girls.

Munkeymon
Aug 14, 2003

Motherfucker's got an
armor-piercing crowbar! Rigoddamndicu𝜆ous.



Kimsemus posted:

Guns are probably a bad example, since they are constitutionally protected and therefore not a valid comparison to abortion.

Now that I think about it more critically, overturning abortion would be way, way easier.

Ah, the 'substantial burden test' https://www.oyez.org/cases/2015/15-274

English sucks poo poo as a formal language IDK how lawtalkers manage

spacetoaster
Feb 10, 2014

friendbot2000 posted:

I don't think this is true. Doug Jones won through the votes of black men and women. We can do that again. Texas showed us that EVERY state can be competitive. Democrats just need a candidate with charisma that will bring people to the polls. I know that things look bleak because...Alabama, but every state can be won if you run an actual person and not an empty suit.

Doug Jones is going to switch parties.

Tim Whatley
Mar 28, 2010

Lol

https://twitter.com/wcbs880/status/1060541622675562496?s=19

Kimsemus
Dec 4, 2013

by Reene
Toilet Rascal

corn in the bible posted:

Yes, all they have to do is decide abortion isn't constitutionally protected and then it's all out the window regardless

They shuffled abortion under an autonomy umbrella, which is a separate body of law.

The current legal trend is that the law/judiciary has big qualms about affirmatively doing something to someone's body or autonomy, but is way way more open about restricting autonomous liberties.

Kimsemus
Dec 4, 2013

by Reene
Toilet Rascal

Munkeymon posted:

Ah, the 'substantial burden test' https://www.oyez.org/cases/2015/15-274

English sucks poo poo as a formal language IDK how lawtalkers manage

we managed as badly as I did trying to respond to you :wooper: which is my fault.

eke out
Feb 24, 2013




the funny thing is he would unironically be much better for basically everything

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

FuturePastNow posted:

I think that depends entirely on what level of enthusiasm Dems can muster for their Presidential candidate. Someone who was as like-able and competent at campaigning as Obama will probably drag up a lot of other races. Running Hillary again would probably flip the House back to red.

I think any candidate with even a nominal level of charisma beats Trump. The younger set of candidates like Gillibrand/Harris/Booker have less history to lie about, and Hillary had to have 30 years of baggage, the charisma of a wet sponge, a bullshit "email scandal" and an FBI director who decided to put his finger on the scale to lose to Trump.

If the economy craps itself, then Trump goes down to a loving ham sandwich with a (D) next to its name.

eke out posted:

the funny thing is he would unironically be much better for basically everything

Actually, Christie would be better. I can't believe I just said that. Ew. Ew ew ew.

corn in the bible
Jun 5, 2004

Oh no oh god it's all true!
I just think you underestimate how happy these people are to just outright gently caress people over.

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound

corn in the bible posted:

I just think you underestimate how happy these people are to just outright gently caress people over.

Yeah, most of the anti-Beto stuff I saw on facebook was *pure* spite voting.

dwarf74
Sep 2, 2012



Buglord
https://www.thedailybeast.com/ian-long-identified-as-thousand-oaks-california-shooting-gunman

quote:

The gunman who carried out a mass shooting at a nightclub in Thousand Oaks, California, has been reportedly identified as Ian Long, 29, of Southern California. Twelve people, including veteran Sheriff's Deputy Ron Helus, were shot dead at the Borderline Bar & Grill late Wednesday night. Ventura County Sheriff Geoff Dean said the gunman was found dead inside the nightclub after the second wave of police arrived after Helus’ death. Dean said it “appeared” that the gunman’s wound was self-inflicted and that he carried no form of identification. Eyewitnesses said the gunman was dressed all in black and deployed smoke bombs before opening fire on the dance floor. A law-enforcement source told the Los Angeles Times the gunman drove his mother’s vehicle to the bar.

Lid
Feb 18, 2005

And the mercy seat is awaiting,
And I think my head is burning,
And in a way I'm yearning,
To be done with all this measuring of proof.
An eye for an eye
And a tooth for a tooth,
And anyway I told the truth,
And I'm not afraid to die.
https://twitter.com/abc7marc/status/1060462015548772353?s=19

Alkydere
Jun 7, 2010
Capitol: A building or complex of buildings in which any legislature meets.
Capital: A city designated as a legislative seat by the government or some other authority, often the city in which the government is located; otherwise the most important city within a country or a subdivision of it.



Harrow posted:

Very slim.

Doug Jones will have a very difficult reelection, so I'm going to start us at D-1--his loss isn't a foregone conclusion, but it's likely enough. I'd say the rest of the Democrats up for reelection are pretty safe--one or two of them might face a primary challenge, but they're reasonably popular incumbents in relatively blue states so I wouldn't necessarily expect to lose their seats. One of them is in Michigan, which Trump won in 2016, but we just saw Michigan go mega-blue on Tuesday and it's beginning to enact voting reforms so I'd say Michigan is very winnable for Democrats in 2020.

As for picking up seats from Republicans, the most possibly winnable seats are in Colorado, Maine, and maybe Iowa and North Carolina. If we assume all four go blue, that puts us at a net D+3 from where we are now. Frankly, if you forced me to right now, I would put money on Colorado and Maine flipping. Maine especially--Collins tanked her approval rating with Kavanaugh, and she might even be retiring so the incumbency bias might not even factor in.

The rest are... not super likely. I'd give a big "mayyyyyyyybe?" to Kansas and Montana after Tuesday--neither seem likely to flip, but I think it can be done. The rest of the list includes Mitch McConnell, who is an immortal lich with a stranglehold on his seat; Lindsey Graham, who I'd absolutely love to unseat but it's South Carolina; John Cornyn in Texas, who has all of Ted Cruz's built-in "Republican in Texas" advantages while also not being some sort of strange slime monster; and then a long list of deeply red states.

I sort of wonder what a Democrat running on free healthcare in West Virginia could accomplish, though.

I suspect you and a lot of people are underestimating what Beto did in Texas. That "Republican in Texas" advantage might not be as strong as people believe it is anymore after this year's election. He finally, finally fired up an eternally depressed section of democratic voters in a way they haven't been in over a decade. His efforts were a massive tailwind for a bunch of state and local level positions that are now solid Dem. Including how every elected judge in Houston was flipped from R to D, with several being outright DSA.

There's still very much an R advantage in Texas, but Beto put some rather big cracks in the dam and we'll see if the R's can seal the leaks against an energized Democratic base. And even if they can, Beto made it very, very clear that the GOP is now actually going to have to spend money to keep their hold on Texas instead of just getting it for free. Money that will have to come from somewhere.

eke out
Feb 24, 2013



Fritz Coldcockin posted:

Actually, Christie would be better. I can't believe I just said that. Ew. Ew ew ew.

given that the proposed alternatives are Pam Bondi and Kris Kobach, I'm confident in saying Christie is insanely better

he's even repeatedly been on the record supporting the mueller probe. so probably he won't be nominated

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

Alkydere posted:

I suspect you and a lot of people are underestimating what Beto did in Texas. That "Republican in Texas" advantage might not be as strong as people believe it is anymore after this year's election. He finally, finally fired up an eternally depressed section of democratic voters in a way they haven't been in over a decade. His efforts were a massive tailwind for a bunch of state and local level positions that are now solid Dem. Including how every elected judge in Houston was flipped from R to D, with several being outright DSA.

There's still very much an R advantage in Texas, but Beto put some rather big cracks in the dam and we'll see if the R's can seal the leaks against an energized Democratic base. And even if they can, Beto made it very, very clear that the GOP is now actually going to have to spend money to keep their hold on Texas instead of just getting it for free. Money that will have to come from somewhere.

I think Beto needs to keep his organization intact and challenge Cornyn in 2020. Cornyn is a fossil and has no idea how to run a real campaign anymore.

mdemone
Mar 14, 2001


"Modern"?

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

eke out posted:

given that the proposed alternatives are Pam Bondi and Kris Kobach, I'm confident in saying Christie is insanely better

he's even repeatedly been on the record supporting the mueller probe. so probably he won't be nominated

Depends on what McConnell tells him, and if Bondi/Kobach are the only alternatives then he might tell Trump "we can get Christie with 60+ votes, pick him".

corn in the bible
Jun 5, 2004

Oh no oh god it's all true!

Alkydere posted:

I suspect you and a lot of people are underestimating what Beto did in Texas. That "Republican in Texas" advantage might not be as strong as people believe it is anymore after this year's election. He finally, finally fired up an eternally depressed section of democratic voters in a way they haven't been in over a decade. His efforts were a massive tailwind for a bunch of state and local level positions that are now solid Dem. Including how every elected judge in Houston was flipped from R to D, with several being outright DSA.

There's still very much an R advantage in Texas, but Beto put some rather big cracks in the dam and we'll see if the R's can seal the leaks against an energized Democratic base. And even if they can, Beto made it very, very clear that the GOP is now actually going to have to spend money to keep their hold on Texas instead of just getting it for free. Money that will have to come from somewhere.

The only way Cornyn will stop being senator is if he gets primaried from the right

Kimsemus
Dec 4, 2013

by Reene
Toilet Rascal

Alkydere posted:

I suspect you and a lot of people are underestimating what Beto did in Texas. That "Republican in Texas" advantage might not be as strong as people believe it is anymore after this year's election. He finally, finally fired up an eternally depressed section of democratic voters in a way they haven't been in over a decade. His efforts were a massive tailwind for a bunch of state and local level positions that are now solid Dem. Including how every elected judge in Houston was flipped from R to D, with several being outright DSA.

There's still very much an R advantage in Texas, but Beto put some rather big cracks in the dam and we'll see if the R's can seal the leaks against an energized Democratic base. And even if they can, Beto made it very, very clear that the GOP is now actually going to have to spend money to keep their hold on Texas instead of just getting it for free. Money that will have to come from somewhere.

It was Ted Cruz though.

"If Ted Cruz was shot in the middle of the Senate and the trial was in the Senate, no one would convict you." - Lindsay Graham

Basically everyone, EVERYONE hates Ted Cruz, voting him in again was the equivalent of a Texan hatefuck.

Random Stranger
Nov 27, 2009



Fritz Coldcockin posted:

Actually, Christie would be better. I can't believe I just said that. Ew. Ew ew ew.

It's hard to imagine a worse option for attorney general than Jeff Sessions. I mean, a randomly selected openly racist sheriff, Don Jr., or a mystically animated statue of a confederate general would all be worse choices, but they'd never get past the senate.



Just kidding, they'd totally be confirmed in an almost party line vote with one or two dems in red states voting to confirm.

Lid
Feb 18, 2005

And the mercy seat is awaiting,
And I think my head is burning,
And in a way I'm yearning,
To be done with all this measuring of proof.
An eye for an eye
And a tooth for a tooth,
And anyway I told the truth,
And I'm not afraid to die.
The shooter has been reported as both Ian Long and David Ian Long

Groovelord Neato
Dec 6, 2014


mdemone posted:

"Modern"?

it’s to differentiate it from things like massacres of black americans and native americans in the 1800s and such.

corn in the bible
Jun 5, 2004

Oh no oh god it's all true!

Random Stranger posted:

It's hard to imagine a worse option for attorney general than Jeff Sessions. I mean, a randomly selected openly racist sheriff, Don Jr., or a mystically animated statue of a confederate general would all be worse choices, but they'd never get past the senate.



Just kidding, they'd totally be confirmed in an almost party line vote with one or two dems in red states voting to confirm.

Don't be silly. Collins would vote no after confirming with McConnell that he'd be confirmed regardless

Prester Jane
Nov 4, 2008

by Hand Knit

Tibalt posted:

This is a good post and is correct. It also illustrates why Senators like Manchin are so valuable and so good.

Flipping 4 seats is a lot easier than flipping 5. If we were looking at a night where you needed to flip 6... the Senate would be all but impossible to take in 2020.

Manchin was the deciding vote to put a massive anti-lgbt and anti-woman bigot on to the Supreme Court- where said bigot is promptly going to work very hard to take away rights from those groups. At the time support for Mansion was justified because he was necessary to flip the Senate, and like all mcgarty posters who objected I was lectured repeatedly on how flipping the Senate would justify all the ill that Manchin was doing.

What I am saying is that you might want to check your privilege there yt before you go lecturing about how Manchin is good, especially post Kacanaugh, Manchin is objectively not good- he is arguably necessary and support for him is potentially justifiable. But he is simply not good and you sound incredibly privileged/out of touch when you insist that he is.

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017




:lol:

This entire Administration is a revolving door of Reeks.

Not one of these fuckers has an ounce of self respect, and jump at the chance to be Trump's beaten dog again.

mdemone
Mar 14, 2001

Groovelord Neato posted:

it’s to differentiate it from things like massacres of black americans and native americans in the 1800s and such.

:gonk:

Shifty Pony
Dec 28, 2004

Up ta somethin'


mango sentinel posted:

I am finding it progressively more difficult to imagine a world where our politics are not permanently and increasingly hosed.

Same.

I increasingly see a Balkanized country where how poo poo your life is depends entirely on what state you are in and with the poo poo-states constantly trying to pull the lucky ones back down.

Brony Car
May 22, 2014

by Cyrano4747

mango sentinel posted:

I am finding it progressively more difficult to imagine a world where our politics are not permanently and increasingly hosed.

Someone could shut down Fox News and I think we'd all be surprised at how much that would accomplish.

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ummel
Jun 17, 2002

<3 Lowtax

Fun Shoe

Kimsemus posted:

There is a pretty large body of conservative lawyers/professors whom don't even consider court packing extreme -- rather a kind of logical thing since there is no real 9 justice rule anyway.

Honestly court expansion should happen just so the "value" of justices goes down. Even if it's a "balanced" packing.

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