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The Dipshit posted:Out of a dozen years. Yeah, we'll be cutting it more than a little close. On the positive side, maybe some CCS might make it out of the R&D pipeline into something usable for rapid deployment. I'd bet money we start geoengineering before very long (though really from my perspective we've been geoengineering since the first steam engine was invented.) Releasing sulfides into the atmosphere will seem like a cheap and easy way to buy some more time and I really think that once thing start getting worse noticably quickly it will be jumped on. The bad parts are a) it will likely cause severe droughts in heavily populated areas that depend on the monsoon season, b) probably other unpredictable effects, and c) if for some reason we halt the releases after starting them we're double screwed so once you start you can't stop, even if it turns out to mess up agriculture across a vast swathe of the globe.
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Nov 14, 2018 21:07
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Mozi posted:c) if for some reason we halt the releases after starting them we're double screwed so once you start you can't stop, even if it turns out to mess up agriculture across a vast swathe of the globe. Why not?
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Nov 14, 2018 21:49
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Climate Change: How I Learned to Start Worrying and Love Eating Crickets
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Nov 14, 2018 23:24
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Climate Change: like Children of Men but only with too many babies
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Nov 14, 2018 23:54
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gmq posted:Why not? Rebound. Temperature would rapidly start climbing towards its expected unmanaged value, to catastrophic ecological effects.
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Nov 14, 2018 23:58
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crickets were a fad, the numbers moved everyone over to black soldier fly larvae
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Nov 15, 2018 00:11
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gmq posted:Why not? It hides the problem, it doesn't solve it. If you halted all global air travel and power plant emissions tomorrow, global temperatures would jump 2* within a month as currently dimming aerosols fall out of the atmosphere. So yeah, it's a really bad Band-Aid.
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Nov 15, 2018 00:30
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Mozi posted:I'd bet money we start geoengineering before very long (though really from my perspective we've been geoengineering since the first steam engine was invented.) d) atmospheric CO2 dissolves in the ocean faster at lower temperatures so you're just speeding up ocean acidification and lysocline shoaling instead.
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Nov 15, 2018 01:30
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if your geoengineering doesn't deal with carbonate undersaturation in the oceans then it doesn't deal with the impending mass extinction.
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Nov 15, 2018 01:50
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Also I know OOCC or someone will come Kramering in here to complain about Clancychat, but geoengineering is seriously a monstrously hard international politics problem and it will start wars. Basically every single geoengineering scheme creates potential losers who will not be happy about being sacrificed so Westerners don't have to actually do anything. People in this thread always end up saying "well, I guess once things get bad we'll have no choice," but it's honestly hard to see how we could ever even get started. It's the political equivalent of sharing a room with two hundred people and trying to decide how to set the thermostat.
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Nov 15, 2018 02:42
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Paradoxish posted:Also I know OOCC or someone will come Kramering in here to complain about Clancychat, but geoengineering is seriously a monstrously hard international politics problem and it will start wars. Basically every single geoengineering scheme creates potential losers who will not be happy about being sacrificed so Westerners don't have to actually do anything. 5 of those people have nukes bro, that's how you decide.
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Nov 15, 2018 02:44
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ChairMaster posted:5 of those people have nukes bro, that's how you decide. The five people with nukes are the ones who are going to drastically disagree about what to do. edit- which does kind of solve the problem I guess
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Nov 15, 2018 02:45
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What if we do a Stephen King-style Long Walk in each country for the right to an unlimited carbon footprint, kill off everyone until there's only one contestant left, and then kill him too?
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Nov 15, 2018 03:15
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Geoengineering is an intractable problem; we're not capable of modeling nearly well enough to predict the effects, much less control the outcome. That sentence will probably remain true until mid-century, which is obviously even more "too late" than it is now.
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Nov 15, 2018 04:40
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We got ourselves into our current climate mess with accidental geoengineering. I don't have much higher hope for intentional geoengineering!
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Nov 15, 2018 04:44
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could it be... a shred... an inkling... a glimmer, of hope? https://ocasio2018.com/green-new-deal
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Nov 15, 2018 04:59
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StabbinHobo posted:could it be... a shred... an inkling... a glimmer, of hope? If that gets to the voting stage, let alone passes, let alone achieves a single one of those bullet points in under ten years, I will eat a leather shoe on live streamed video.
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Nov 15, 2018 05:11
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StabbinHobo posted:could it be... a shred... an inkling... a glimmer, of hope? Renewables aren't going to meet demand soon enough and every day we delay going full nuclear we burn more CO2 so, no.
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Nov 15, 2018 05:11
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Paradoxish posted:Natural gas plants are honestly a bigger problem since they're being sold as a lower emissions alternative to coal (which they are), but since they aren't zero emissions they're still part of the problem rather than the solution and we're continually bringing new plants online that will emit for decades and decades. Tearing down profitable, relatively new infrastructure is basically unprecedented on the scale that's needed. It does however provide an incentive to trap natural gas to be used later instead of just letting it vent or immediately flare it off. I guess that's something... imagine how much natural gas has been just flared into the atmosphere during oil extraction before it became somewhat profitable to capture it.
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Nov 15, 2018 05:48
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I don't know how you can look at the recent history of nuclear rector development and construction and conclude that it will be any faster at meeting demand. If anything, wind and solar are obviously and demonstrably faster to implement at least up to ~40% of demand, which we are nowhere near at present. Beyond that things get dicey, and I'm as gung-ho about nuclear as the next guy provided someone can put forward a design that doesn't take a shitzillion years to build with innumerable design and construction problems. But until we've plucked the low hanging fruit of scaling wind+solar to the point where additional capacity requires overcoming major infrastructure and storage hurdles, it makes sense to focus on those as an easy win.
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Nov 15, 2018 07:01
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To me it looks like countries like Finland and others building the new generations of reactors got hit with the early implementer scenario, one would hope after a few of these reactors are actually finished, that building more of them would become easier and faster.
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Nov 15, 2018 07:19
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Rime posted:It hides the problem, it doesn't solve it. If you halted all global air travel and power plant emissions tomorrow, global temperatures would jump 2* within a month as currently dimming aerosols fall out of the atmosphere. I know this has been mentioned time and time again in the thread but do you know which study/studies this comes from?
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Nov 15, 2018 07:47
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I'm just waiting for a goddamned universal voluntary euthanasia movement. Like, you go to a room, they give you a nice painless injection, the government pays for your funeral and gives some money to charity in exchange for your noble sacrifice and your loved ones celebrate the fact that you are no longer in pain. I feel like all these articles telling us how screwed we are are in fact people clamoring for the same but no one wants to ACTUALLY propose that because you'd get chucked in a mental institution. So instead we are left with this ridiculous situation that is akin to being trapped in a cage bringing slowly dipped towards a vat of acid with a bunch of people. Everyone keeps screaming about how the a I'd is there, there's nothing we can do,and what a horrible and painful death it will be. But the minute you suggest that people start strangling each other in their sleep or hanging themselves with their shoelaces since it hurts less than the acid, everyone immediately goes "NO! You have so much to live for in this acid cage!" "How can you be so selfish to not want to die horribly along side me? Sure, I will not even talk to you this whole time but your mere PRESENCE is so soothing!" "You are a coward! A REAL man would punch the acid, since dying fighting a worthless battle is the HONORABLE thing to do!" all in a selfish attempt to make themselves feel better about having "saved" someone. I mean gently caress, I can't avoid climate news no matter what I do. RockPaperShotgun, Polygon, Av Club, Gizmodo, Waypoint, ALL of them can't go for a week without some thinkpiece related to our political and climate Doom. If even hobby sites are infected by doomsaying, the gently caress am I supposed to do? Stare at a wall all day? AceOfFlames fucked around with this message at 11:34 on Nov 15, 2018 |
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Nov 15, 2018 11:20
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AceOfFlames posted:I'm just waiting for a goddamned universal voluntary euthanasia movement. Like, you go to a room, they give you a nice painless injection, the government pays for your funeral and gives some money to charity in exchange for your noble sacrifice and your loved ones celebrate the fact that you are no longer in pain. Get off the internet.
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Nov 15, 2018 11:32
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9-Volt Assault posted:Get off the internet. That's easy to say but then how do I know vital stuff to live my life? How do I know if the government is taken over by fascists? If my taxes double? If there is a new job opportunity? Am I supposed to ask my coworkers every single day the news and explain I am willingly cutting myself off from the world for my own sanity?
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Nov 15, 2018 11:37
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0pvLrp8Oqo And that's about the outcry to climate breakdown right now. And this is what we're up against: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtvlJc-rrI0 Lampsacus fucked around with this message at 12:01 on Nov 15, 2018 |
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Nov 15, 2018 11:59
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AceOfFlames posted:That's easy to say but then how do I know vital stuff to live my life? How do I know if the government is taken over by fascists? If my taxes double? If there is a new job opportunity? Am I supposed to ask my coworkers every single day the news and explain I am willingly cutting myself off from the world for my own sanity?
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Nov 15, 2018 12:39
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find somebody whose opinions you agree with who does regular news aggregations and dont click on climate-related articles its not as though theyre injecting it into every piece (note: i havent looked at vidoegame journalism more than incidentally in years, but still, they cant be quite that bad at their job) actually the moment you start seeing people mentioning climate disaster in every single article and segment and show youll know one of the turborich has decided to give a poo poo beyond hiring a private army and moving to new zealand
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Nov 15, 2018 12:56
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Morbus posted:I don't know how you can look at the recent history of nuclear rector development and construction and conclude that it will be any faster at meeting demand. "this solution can't work, afterall we have actively tried as hard as possible to make it not work" is why climate change is going to kill billions and coal is still burning but ok. His Divine Shadow posted:To me it looks like countries like Finland and others building the new generations of reactors got hit with the early implementer scenario, one would hope after a few of these reactors are actually finished, that building more of them would become easier and faster. Having to actually pay for their externalities really hurts too.
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Nov 15, 2018 13:58
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AceOfFlames posted:I mean gently caress, I can't avoid climate news no matter what I do. RockPaperShotgun, Polygon, Av Club, Gizmodo, Waypoint, ALL of them can't go for a week without some thinkpiece related to our political and climate Doom. If even hobby sites are infected by doomsaying, the gently caress am I supposed to do? Stare at a wall all day? Y'all need to take a chill pill. I get it, things are bad. I live here too. I turn 24 in a few months, my sorry rear end is gonna be stuck with this poo poo for a long rear end time. But you do not need to post poo poo like this on a constant basis, AoF. Calm down.
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Nov 15, 2018 14:01
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i did a spotlighting survey tonight, saw some great frogs, my friends the litoria - litoria fallax, an impossibly tiny green tree frog with a big voice, and litoria wilcoxii, which is my new favourite animal because the female is thrice the size of the male and during the breeding season he turns from a mottled brown to a brilliant lemon yellow. why not research your local frogs and how to help them? they are proving amazingly resilient after multiple brushes with extinction and they may yet outlast us, and you could have the honour of personally handling the ancestor of a far-future frog lord
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Nov 15, 2018 14:03
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Morbus posted:I don't know how you can look at the recent history of nuclear rector development and construction and conclude that it will be any faster at meeting demand. you clearly do not understand the scope of the problem. taking your own numbers, how long should we "focus" on wind & solar to get to ~40% of demand? how does that line up with the latest IPCC report's de-carbonization timelines?
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Nov 15, 2018 14:08
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Flowers For Algeria posted:I know this has been mentioned time and time again in the thread but do you know which study/studies this comes from? Observations in temperature spikes during the air travel halt after 9/11.
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Nov 15, 2018 14:53
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Rime posted:If that gets to the voting stage, let alone passes, let alone achieves a single one of those bullet points in under ten years, I will eat a leather shoe on live streamed video. Sounds like a  to me.
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Nov 15, 2018 14:59
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https://earthsky.org/earth/ocean-warming-60-greater-error-correctionquote:The authors of the October 31 paper now say theyve redone their calculations, and although they find the ocean is still likely warmer than the estimate used by the IPCC they agree that they muffed the range of probability. They can no longer support the earlier statement of a heat increase 60 percent greater than indicated. They now say there is a larger range of probability, between 10 percent and 70 percent, as other studies have already found. It's something. 
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Nov 15, 2018 15:04
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https://www.ge.com/renewableenergy/wind-energy/turbines/haliade-x-offshore-turbine They are getting bigger.
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Nov 15, 2018 15:42
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Flowers For Algeria posted:I know this has been mentioned time and time again in the thread but do you know which study/studies this comes from? I found it! http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/RobockStratAerosolGeo.pdf Right in the abstract, in the middle of the 2nd paragraph. "The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, conducting climate model experiments with standard stratospheric aerosol injection scenarios, has found that insolation reduction could keep the global average temperature constant, but global average precipitation would reduce, particularly in summer monsoon regions around the world. Temperature changes would also not be uniform; the tropics would cool, but high latitudes would warm, with continuing, but reduced sea ice and ice sheet melting. Temperature extremes would still increase, but not as much as without geoengineering. If geoengineering were halted all at once, there would be rapid temperature and precipitation increases at 5–10 times the rates from gradual global warming."
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Nov 15, 2018 16:15
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Paradoxish posted:Also I know OOCC or someone will come Kramering in here to complain about Clancychat, but geoengineering is seriously a monstrously hard international politics problem and it will start wars. Basically every single geoengineering scheme creates potential losers who will not be happy about being sacrificed so Westerners don't have to actually do anything. This was basically how I saw it. However the context of the recent completely unnecessary unilateral US tariffs (or Brexit!) highlights that modern states won't always try to seek consensus and avoid unnecessary conflict, even to their own detriment. 20 years from now a competent fascist could plausibly become US president with a gerrymandered Republican Congress and Senate. If he orders the military to dump sulfates into the atmosphere, who will really stop him? Isolationism and the objections of the international community play well with the authoritarian demographic ("America will save the world by itself!"), and no-one is going to war with America. It's not clear whether US domestic institutions would be any real constraint, given that the President apparently can apparently order all sorts of terrible things if it's superficially to ensure national security. Geoengineering is still highly unlikely for all the reasons you mentioned. However I feel less confident dismissing it happening out of hand on the basis that states will behave rationally. Of course this is all stupid speculation about the future on my part.
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Nov 15, 2018 16:24
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You guys talk about geoengineering as if China isn't already doing it. They experimented with silver iodide cloud seeding way back, but the dispersal methods lacked effectiveness. Now they're going hard because they've hosed up the local environment so badly. What will the long term ramifications be? Who knows! Rime fucked around with this message at 17:12 on Nov 15, 2018 |
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Nov 15, 2018 17:01
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AceOfFlames posted:I'm just waiting for a goddamned universal voluntary euthanasia movement. Like, you go to a room, they give you a nice painless injection, the government pays for your funeral and gives some money to charity in exchange for your noble sacrifice and your loved ones celebrate the fact that you are no longer in pain. You have seen the film Soylent Green, haven't you? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=edQNjJZFdLU I saw this film when it was released in 1973. Never thought I would end up experiencing that sort of world, but I guess it's going to happen. Climate Change: It's PEEPLE! VideoGameVet fucked around with this message at 18:59 on Nov 15, 2018 |
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Nov 15, 2018 18:56
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