|
Typo posted:That's assuming tester wins 2024 (once he loses the democrats are lost their forever) 12 years from now is 12 years of a 60-30 (lol) post millennial generation that replaces 35-55ish voting olds. If he loses in 2020 and a couple of things break right, it's very possible that Trump winning is an immensely lucky break for Democrats/progressives in the following 20 year window. the alternative was gonna be 4 years of Hillary followed by an economic downturn, President Cruz ushering in another GOP redistricting round in 2020 and permanent hellworld darkness forever
|
#
?
Nov 16, 2018 00:19
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 10, 2024 19:32 |
|
|
If Joe Biden were the nominee, how many of you would be willing to stand in line for five hours to vote for him? Can you imagine a candidate where you would be willing to stand in line for five hours? If so you agree that candidate selection can motivate voters and that's part of combatting some types of vote suppression tactics.
|
|
#
?
Nov 16, 2018 02:13
|
|
|
Hellblazer187 posted:If Joe Biden were the nominee, how many of you would be willing to stand in line for five hours to vote for him? Can you imagine a candidate where you would be willing to stand in line for five hours? If so you agree that candidate selection can motivate voters and that's part of combatting some types of vote suppression tactics. Some people are pretty passionate about Joe Biden, it really depends on the person. If you have to get home to take care of a sick family member it doesnt' matter how passionate you are about whoever, you can't wait in line 3 hours to vote and passion doesn't come into it. I agree that enthusiasm might get some people to get past some voter suppression but a great thing would be to concentrate on fighting some of the voter suppression in the first place. The problem is SO much deeper than "x candidate is boring" and I really think people are projecting their ennui here.
|
|
#
?
Nov 16, 2018 02:53
|
|
|
Jaxyon posted:Some people are pretty passionate about Joe Biden, it really depends on the person. If you have to get home to take care of a sick family member it doesnt' matter how passionate you are about whoever, you can't wait in line 3 hours to vote and passion doesn't come into it. Literally nobody in this thread disagrees with this. This is basically what grayjoy said and you came in with "oh, so voters are lazy huh?" As a seemingly deliberate misread of the op
|
|
#
?
Nov 16, 2018 03:00
|
|
|
Both sides are right here. Voter suppression works on the margins, you suppress 1% of your opponent's vote and now you can win with just 49.51% of the vote. Suppress 2% and you can win with 49.01%, etc. Even if zero suppressed people overcome that suppression due to enthusiasm, if that enthusiasm brings out an extra 2% of nonsuppressed voters then congratulations you still beat the voter suppression. Now obviously you can't count on a thrilling candidate every time so once you win you'd better start overturning voter suppression laws and preemptively banning future voter suppression like Nancy Pelosi wants to do in the House. But if you're in the minority and your goal is beating voter suppression then the very first thing you have to do is win or you'll never get anywhere.
|
|
#
?
Nov 16, 2018 03:01
|
|
|
Hellblazer187 posted:Literally nobody in this thread disagrees with this. This is basically what grayjoy said and you came in with "oh, so voters are lazy huh?" As a seemingly deliberate misread of the op No, my issue was that was the only thing he said about it. And yes, when your only response to voter suppression is "we need to find someone that excites people enough to overcome it" the implication is that's the major hurdle, and it very much isn't. And further posts seem to indicate people think that finding a sexy candidate is basically the only thing anyone can do about it.
|
|
#
?
Nov 16, 2018 03:03
|
|
|
Vital gets it
|
|
#
?
Nov 16, 2018 03:04
|
|
|
While voter suppression is an important topic, it's not currently very relevant to the 2020 primary (though it could be, if you want to try and discus voter suppression of primary voters!).
|
|
#
?
Nov 16, 2018 03:05
|
|
|
MSDOS KAPITAL posted:You're not getting it: you may as well swing for the fences because within a few years everything on this side of the fence is going to be lava, anyway. How exactly does one swing for the fences when your perfect candidate doesn't exist and will never find their way to a ballot?
|
|
#
?
Nov 16, 2018 04:49
|
|
|
It's telling that this is what you consider "asking for even a momentary jerk of the steering wheel in a positive direction" to be.
|
|
#
?
Nov 16, 2018 05:09
|
|
|
Adar posted:12 years from now is 12 years of a 60-30 (lol) post millennial generation that replaces 35-55ish voting olds. If he loses in 2020 and a couple of things break right, it's very possible that Trump winning is an immensely lucky break for Democrats/progressives in the following 20 year window. 60-30 is millennial generation overall (whites and non-whites) and those states (except PA) are VERY white and aging, white millennial are narrowly democratic but combined with a more solid core of support among older blue collar whites for Republicans those states should be heavily contested by both parties
|
|
#
?
Nov 16, 2018 05:28
|
|
|
GreyjoyBastard posted:I don't know whether I'd rather have her in Treasury or Labor. Not sure secretary of labor is considered a step up from a safe senate seat, and you don’t run for prez unless you want a promotion.
|
|
#
?
Nov 16, 2018 05:29
|
|
|
KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:Warren's support is deep and broad in MA and it was a huge political moment in the state when she was elected. She is very appealing to blue Massachusetts voters – mind you, in a way that is difficult to transpose elsewhere – but she is exactly the type of personality these voters want in that office. It goes way beyond being a technocrat. It may be difficult to see that from outside the state. Is that really true? Because she barely got elected the first time, heavily reliant on Obama's coattails (and running 5 points behind him). And 60% against a nobody this year doesn't seem particularly impressive either when you compare her to literally any other blue state Democratic Senator. None of that bothers me, a W is a W when we are talking about Senate seats and Warren's is a voice worth having on the Democratic bench but nothing about Warren has ever really suggested to me that she is capable of expanding the Democratic electorate.
|
|
#
?
Nov 16, 2018 05:39
|
|
|
CubanMissile posted:How exactly does one swing for the fences when your perfect candidate doesn't exist and will never find their way to a ballot?  All the excuses in the world aren't going to remove a single molecule of CO2 from the atmosphere. If all you can contribute to the climate change "debate" within the Democratic party, is exhortations to be "realistic" about the electorate, then you're better off just shutting up. If you really believe what you're saying then effectively you already believe that human civilization is totally doomed, and shitposting at people who don't think that seems like a poor use of what little time you have left.
|
|
#
?
Nov 16, 2018 05:41
|
|
|
DynamicSloth posted:Is that really true? Because she barely got elected the first time, heavily reliant on Obama's coattails (and running 5 points behind him). And 60% against a nobody this year doesn't seem particularly impressive either when you compare her to literally any other blue state Democratic Senator. None of that bothers me, a W is a W when we are talking about Senate seats and Warren's is a voice worth having on the Democratic bench but nothing about Warren has ever really suggested to me that she is capable of expanding the Democratic electorate. She has fans but unless she has Bernie levels of enthusiasm she’s not getting close to the nom. Too many other contenders, will be caught between Bernie if he runs and more establishment options. She’s in the Scott Walker ‘16 zone.
|
|
#
?
Nov 16, 2018 05:50
|
|
|
yronic heroism posted:She’s in the Scott Walker ‘16 zone. drat, you guys accuse the left of hating liberals and then you compare poor Warren to Paul Ryan and Scott Walker.  this is a joke, please don't respond to this seriously
|
|
#
?
Nov 16, 2018 05:56
|
|
|
DynamicSloth posted:Is that really true? Because she barely got elected the first time, heavily reliant on Obama's coattails (and running 5 points behind him). And 60% against a nobody this year doesn't seem particularly impressive either when you compare her to literally any other blue state Democratic Senator. None of that bothers me, a W is a W when we are talking about Senate seats and Warren's is a voice worth having on the Democratic bench but nothing about Warren has ever really suggested to me that she is capable of expanding the Democratic electorate. ted kennedy was floating ~60-70% for like all 40 years he was in MA senate
|
|
#
?
Nov 16, 2018 07:05
|
|
|
Lightning Knight posted:drat, you guys accuse the left of hating liberals and then you compare poor Warren to Paul Ryan and Scott Walker. agreed, Elizabeth Warren is actually the Democratic Ted Cruz, except the wasps filling her skinsuit really hate credit card companies
|
|
#
?
Nov 16, 2018 07:26
|
|
|
Typo posted:60-30 is millennial generation overall (whites and non-whites) and those states (except PA) are VERY white and aging, white millennial are narrowly democratic but combined with a more solid core of support among older blue collar whites for Republicans those states should be heavily contested by both parties I can't find Age+Race cross tabs for those states, but the general age breakdown is positive enough to be optimistic. Exit poll in WI gov race: https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/results/wisconsin/governor 60%-37% for 18-29, 56%-44% 30-44 MI gov race: https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/results/michigan/governor 63%-34% for 18-29, 54%-42% 30-44 MI 65+ are actually more Dem than GenX, but Millenials are even more Dem so it would still be a shift left.
|
|
#
?
Nov 16, 2018 07:35
|
|
|
HILLARY again please for gods sakes tell me this is bullshit  Like she got loving slayn already now dems are gonna take turns busting her over all the poo poo she did last time. jeb v2 is not gonna end well. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) (USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST) (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Nov 16, 2018 08:26
|
|
|
Hellblazer187 posted:If Joe Biden were the nominee, how many of you would be willing to stand in line for five hours to vote for him? Can you imagine a candidate where you would be willing to stand in line for five hours? If so you agree that candidate selection can motivate voters and that's part of combatting some types of vote suppression tactics. I voted in a primary for the first time ever for Bernie. Also stood in line for hours with my wife for a rally I didn't even get into because the building filled up on the off chance he stepped out for a moment. Didn't even consider it an evening wasted. This was in Oklahoma. Now I I vote regularly, read all the platforms and literature, volunteer, and push my friends towards voting. Im in Massachusetts now though, so slightly less impact, but still. Pretty sure I would have continued to barely give a poo poo if 2016 had been Biden v Clinton.
|
|
#
?
Nov 16, 2018 08:48
|
|
|
MSDOS KAPITAL posted:Clearly, you do it by lecturing people that it can't be done A good use of the time we have left is to completely destroy any enthusiasm for any candidate that may improve the situation at all while others rabidly for vote for someone that will accelerate our demise while we cross our fingers and pray for the political messiah to arrive. Who exactly do you plan on voting for that checks all the boxes for you?
|
|
#
?
Nov 16, 2018 09:36
|
|
|
CubanMissile posted:A good use of the time we have left is to completely destroy any enthusiasm for any candidate that may improve the situation at all while others rabidly for vote for someone that will accelerate our demise while we cross our fingers and pray for the political messiah to arrive.
|
|
#
?
Nov 16, 2018 09:44
|
|
|
Typo posted:60-30 is millennial generation overall (whites and non-whites) and those states (except PA) are VERY white and aging, white millennial are narrowly democratic but combined with a more solid core of support among older blue collar whites for Republicans those states should be heavily contested by both parties Young voters in MI , PA, and WI still favored the Dem candidates for Senate/Governor by 20-30 points. 45-65 year olds were roughly tied, but older voters were actually more likely to vote for Democratic candidates in most of the races (wealthier, more conservative people are more likely to retire to the Sunbelt). The 45-65 generation has always relatively leaned towards the Republican party, even when they were young (i.e. they are not getting more conservative as they age like the old myth goes). A significant subset of blue collar whites in those states abandoned Hillary and voted for Trump or stayed home, but there's not a lot of evidence that they abandoned the Democratic party in favor of Republicans.
|
|
#
?
Nov 16, 2018 14:35
|
|
|
Typo posted:ted kennedy was floating ~60-70% for like all 40 years he was in MA senate Yes and he left a woman to drown. Seriously that's the normal range you'd expect in a safe seat, Warren's just on the bottom end of the range. She probably runs at what "generic Democrat" would get, minus 3%, which in Massachusetts is good enough to hold the seat forever.
|
|
#
?
Nov 16, 2018 15:09
|
|
|
LeoMarr posted:tell me this is bullshit Would it do any good? A dozen more of you are going to rush in here every time some clickbait monger figures out the easiest way to gin up a story is by phoning up any of approximately 10,000 former Clinton associates and getting them to say the word "maybe".
|
|
#
?
Nov 16, 2018 15:13
|
|
|
After seeing Abrams' acknowledgement speech, I have a new favorite candidate, if you haven't seen it go watch it, powerful stuff calling out the Republicans for their cheating and dishonesty. She has real fire and the charisma to back it up. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1YXTP7u8Ds Skex fucked around with this message at 19:19 on Nov 17, 2018 |
|
#
?
Nov 17, 2018 19:05
|
|
|
Eric Swalwell was on Real Time yesterday. He probably never had a real chance, but he is "fine" manifest. His speaking is fine... he has generic new liberal positions (pot legalization, Medicare for all, etc) that are all fine... his "stand out from the crowd" policy is a plan to have the federal government partner with local governments and states to build a brand new modern school in every county, which is fine... In a - potentially - large field with a lot of established or "unique" candidates, coming in as a total unknown and being the "fine" candidate is probably a bad move. Although, I guess it worked in 2004. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 22:33 on Nov 17, 2018 |
|
#
?
Nov 17, 2018 20:40
|
|
|
Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Eric Swalwell was on Real Time yesterday. I thought when we discussed him earlier in this thread it was because he fell back on the usual dem weaksauce nonsense about means-tested "access to affordable healthcare" rather than Medicare for All; has his position changed? eta: His website says this so we're cool: "I am a cosponsor of the Expanded & Improved Medicare For All Act, which would establish a single-payer system to provide health insurance coverage to all eligible United States residents." Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 21:53 on Nov 17, 2018 |
|
#
?
Nov 17, 2018 21:49
|
|
|
Star Man posted:It's amazing how in blood red Wyoming, I can register to vote at the poll on the day of the primary or general election. But I presume the reason for that is because the combined populations of the Northern Arapaho, Eastern Shoshoni, and other minorities in the state aren't enough to overcome the vote of white Republicans. So there's no need to. Utah does the same thing, but if urban Salt Lake City ever starts to overwhelm its suburbs + Provo I imagine that'll change
|
|
#
?
Nov 17, 2018 22:16
|
|
|
Willa Rogers posted:I thought when we discussed him earlier in this thread it was because he fell back on the usual dem weaksauce nonsense about means-tested "access to affordable healthcare" rather than Medicare for All; has his position changed? I had mentioned he cosponsored that bill and then everyone still dunked on me for wondering why the word "access" made a difference if he was an M4A cosponsor.
|
|
#
?
Nov 17, 2018 23:27
|
|
|
In case you were thinking that Biden might not be running https://twitter.com/TIME/status/1063908405977452548
|
|
#
?
Nov 18, 2018 00:32
|
|
|
goethe.cx posted:Utah does the same thing, but if urban Salt Lake City ever starts to overwhelm its suburbs + Provo I imagine that'll change Despite the money coming in from Salt Lake transforming into a tech hub, the Mormons that run state would rather let their personal convictions drive them rather than what's best for the state. They'd rather all of that new tax revenue go up in smoke than accept the fact that demographics are changing.
|
|
#
?
Nov 18, 2018 01:05
|
|
|
Wicked Them Beats posted:In case you were thinking that Biden might not be running is it really running if the german shepherd is dragging biden by the leash
|
|
#
?
Nov 18, 2018 01:16
|
|
|
Wicked Them Beats posted:In case you were thinking that Biden might not be running Biden seems to just collect dogs. 2008 quote:Biden gets new dog 2009 quote:Biden told ABC the new puppy will likely be a golden retriever — and that he's not adopting from a pound just to be politically correct. 2014 quote:Vice President Biden's family adopts abandoned dog 2016 quote:Vice President Joe Biden made headlines today when he appeared alongside President Barack Obama in the East Room at the White House for an event celebrating the 25th anniversary of the Americans with Disabilities Act. 2018 quote:Joe Biden Adopts German Shepherd Named Major from Delaware Shelter: 'We Are So Happy'
|
|
#
?
Nov 18, 2018 01:35
|
|
|
what is biden doing with these dogs #askquestions
|
|
#
?
Nov 18, 2018 01:42
|
|
|
Raskolnikov38 posted:is it really running if the german shepherd is dragging biden by the leash Coming Summer 2022: the zany and heartwarming tale (based on a true story) of a wacky but lovable German Shepherd dog who took his owner for walkies...into the Presidency! Yes, it’s Dog The Wag, campaigning his way into your hearts soon!
|
|
#
?
Nov 18, 2018 01:43
|
|
|
Raskolnikov38 posted:what is biden doing with these dogs #askquestions considering his relationship with obama, i find the issue very pressing
|
|
#
?
Nov 18, 2018 01:48
|
|
|
All dogs are good dogs, but I never really understood how "working dogs" like the Australian Shepherd, German Shepherd, Bernese Mountain Dog, Dobermans, and Boxers all became very popular indoor and pet breeds in the US. Politicians usually all go with labs as their generic dog to show that they are an average joe.
|
|
#
?
Nov 18, 2018 01:53
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 10, 2024 19:32 |
|
|
Where did you put the dogs, Joe
|
|
#
?
Nov 18, 2018 01:55
|
|
