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Poque
Sep 11, 2003

=^-^=

sleep with the vicious posted:

Is it standard for the last boots to be every day from day 35 on? I noticed they had the standard 3 days before the elimination being on 35. Or is that every time?

We're mostly nonstandard this season due to the weather evac and another tribal having to be delayed due to the Christian/Alec endurance challenge running way too long. But they definitely get more frequent at the end of the season.

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Sand Monster
Apr 13, 2008

Spergatory posted:

Say hello to the worst possible ending everyone! It's coming, and there's pretty much no stopping it!

Now we know why Jeff was so passive about this season -- which was actually one of the more entertaining up until this point -- before it aired.

Spokes
Jan 9, 2010

Thanks for a MONSTER of an avatar, Awful Survivor Mods!
I'm happy for Mike finally winning individual immunity, and even though it took literally 35 days and probably wouldn't have happened otherwise, i'm glad to see him be proactive about targeting the people he thinks are a threat to win (it's a long list, mike!)

He steered the votes the way they had to go if he had any shot at winning, and 4 days to build a resume isn't a lot, but if he starts playing for real in the finale i think he could beat angelina and allison at FTC (and, honestly, maybe nick. who knows?)

Spergatory
Oct 28, 2012
One thing I'd love to see is Nick trying to convince Mike that he was such a public trainwreck in front of the jury that he can't win now. A Mike, Nick, Angelina final three would be absolutely hilarious because I think the jury might genuinely be torn as to who among them is least objectionable to give the money to. Mike, Angelina, and anyone else is a slam dunk for anyone else.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Spergatory posted:

One thing I'd love to see is Nick trying to convince Mike that he was such a public trainwreck in front of the jury that he can't win now. A Mike, Nick, Angelina final three would be absolutely hilarious because I think the jury might genuinely be torn as to who among them is least objectionable to give the money to. Mike, Angelina, and anyone else is a slam dunk for anyone else.

I think Mike has a better case than Alison and maybe Kara.

Spergatory
Oct 28, 2012

IcePhoenix posted:

I think Mike has a better case than Alison and maybe Kara.

Doesn't matter. He is a Known Hollywood Celebrity, even if he isn't that big, so a jury with this makeup is not going to give him the million unless he's sitting next to two absolute mega goats. I think a millionaire can win Survivor, but only if nobody knows they're a millionaire.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Spergatory posted:

Doesn't matter. He is a Known Hollywood Celebrity, even if he isn't that big, so a jury with this makeup is not going to give him the million unless he's sitting next to two absolute mega goats. I think a millionaire can win Survivor, but only if nobody knows they're a millionaire.

I see people say this a lot but I can't think of a situation where it ever actually happened

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

It was really bad for a David to go home because now the other four have numbers to vote split on them if neither wins immunity next challenge.

Davie and Nick can point directly at their poor communication this episode if neither makes FTC as the reason for their downfall. Davie turning on Nick because Nick didn’t tell him the dumb fake idol stunt he was pulling, Nick turning on Davie based on outdated intelligence. It was too crucial for them to stick together for them to let that happen. If Nick just flips his vote back to Alison it’s 3-2-2, so that’s all it would’ve taken, but clearly he still thinks Christian and Davie are voting against him when he plays that idol.

Nick might still have a chance to slip below Alison on the threat radar and make f4, but if so that’s only because he genuinely has lost a lot of what respect people may have had for him out there. As expected, it’s hard seeing a good winner emerging from this game, but it’s still been a great season.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

IcePhoenix posted:

I see people say this a lot but I can't think of a situation where it ever actually happened
also Sandra won twice

although I guess by the time it got to F3 there wasn't much choice there

Fast Luck fucked around with this message at 16:19 on Dec 13, 2018

Spergatory
Oct 28, 2012

Fast Luck posted:

also Sandra won twice

On an All-Star season against two of the most hated people in the game, one of which had also already won, and the other of which may or may not have thought he won.

It's never overtly come into play, but many Survivor jurors have said they take things like that into account. One of the many ways Russell undermined himself in Samoa was (falsely?) bragging to his allies that he was secretly a millionaire, which eventually got spread around. It's something you'd like to think the jury could look past from a pure game perspective, but they're only human.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Spergatory posted:

On an All-Star season against two of the most hated people in the game, one of which had also already won, and the other of which may or may not have thought he won.

It's never overtly come into play, but many Survivor jurors have said they take things like that into account. One of the many ways Russell undermined himself in Samoa was (falsely?) bragging to his allies that he was secretly a millionaire, which eventually got spread around. It's something you'd like to think the jury could look past from a pure game perspective, but they're only human.

Alison is a physician (maybe not a millionaire but in the eyes of the jury she may as well be) and Angelina annoys everyone so much she's been an obvious goat since the merge.

Truther Vandross
Jun 17, 2008

The final three is going to be Kara, Allison and Angelina in the biggest farttttttt ending of all time

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

sportsgenius86 posted:

The final three is going to be Kara, Allison and Angelina in the biggest farttttttt ending of all time

This is what I'm expecting. Kara probably wins final immunity, takes Angelina, and Alison makes fire to get into the final three.

Kara and Alison split the votes 6-4 or 7-3 (maybe Angelina gets a pity vote)

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

Spergatory posted:

On an All-Star season against two of the most hated people in the game, one of which had also already won, and the other of which may or may not have thought he won.

It's never overtly come into play, but many Survivor jurors have said they take things like that into account. One of the many ways Russell undermined himself in Samoa was (falsely?) bragging to his allies that he was secretly a millionaire, which eventually got spread around. It's something you'd like to think the jury could look past from a pure game perspective, but they're only human.
yeah you're right about that, I edited my post realizing that wasn't the best example

I can see Mike White's occupation coming into play but only in a roundabout way, where people all know everyone else knows it, so they all start filing him away as a goat for that reason. But I don't believe it actually would otherwise matter and I don't think when it comes time to vote that the jury cares all that much who has money. I think they care about who they like and want to win, and who they respect. But for the aforementioned reason i think Mike White's game is not that respected. I think he's mostly been perceived as a goat and hasn't done much to dissuade that opinion until this very episode when it's maybe too late.

Spergatory
Oct 28, 2012

IcePhoenix posted:

Alison is a physician (maybe not a millionaire but in the eyes of the jury she may as well be) and Angelina annoys everyone so much she's been an obvious goat since the merge.

Alison being a physician could help or hurt her depending on who she's up against. Yes, she probably has money, but she also has an occupation that is almost universally respected, and there's no way she has as much money as Mike.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Spergatory posted:

Alison being a physician could help or hurt her depending on who she's up against. Yes, she probably has money, but she also has an occupation that is almost universally respected, and there's no way she has as much money as Mike.

You seem oddly convinced that this thing that has never mattered before is going to matter and I'm not sure what else to say :shrug:

If Mike makes it to the finals he's not going to lose because of his money.

Lone Goat
Apr 16, 2003

When life gives you lemons, suplex those lemons.




I'm now hoping Mike wins so this guy looks like the biggest idiot ever.

freeman
Aug 14, 2018
Mike is probably the most likable from everybody left if you were playing with him.

Spergatory
Oct 28, 2012
An actual celebrity has never played before and made it to the finals. Lisa Whelchel doesn't count, because she wasn't a known celebrity, and lost for other reasons. Like, I don't know how to communicate to you that I've listened to actual interviews with actual Survivor players who have said that this stuff matters, that they wish it didn't but that they do consider that kind of thing when casting their vote mostly because narratives build up at Ponderosa about who everyone wants to win and it's hard to get a lot of momentum behind "you know who I really want to win? The millionaire." Outside the game stuff matters. Brandon Hantz could have won South Pacific had he made it to the end, because he was a young single father everyone felt bad for. Kimmi Kappenburg would've beaten Jeremy in Cambodia because the jury was so invested in the story of her and her special needs kids. Jurors are people and that kind of poo poo matters to people.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Spergatory posted:

An actual celebrity has never played before and made it to the finals. Lisa Whelchel doesn't count, because she wasn't a known celebrity, and lost for other reasons. Like, I don't know how to communicate to you that I've listened to actual interviews with actual Survivor players who have said that this stuff matters, that they wish it didn't but that they do consider that kind of thing when casting their vote mostly because narratives build up at Ponderosa about who everyone wants to win and it's hard to get a lot of momentum behind "you know who I really want to win? The millionaire." Outside the game stuff matters. Brandon Hantz could have won South Pacific had he made it to the end, because he was a young single father everyone felt bad for. Kimmi Kappenburg would've beaten Jeremy in Cambodia because the jury was so invested in the story of her and her special needs kids. Jurors are people and that kind of poo poo matters to people.

If the money matters so much why do they keep getting voted out instead of dragged to the finals as a goat?

People can say what they want but until I actually see it happen then it doesn't mean anything.

I think the fact that you have to say "this one doesn't count because they lost for other reasons" says as much as it has to. She made it to the finals, people knew who she was (it came out during the season), and, by your own admission(!), she lost for reasons other than money

Poque
Sep 11, 2003

=^-^=
They should just bring back this entire cast for a future season and put them in an entirely new game and see what happens.

Spergatory
Oct 28, 2012
I'm just going to assume you haven't watched Philippines recently. The jury didn't know who Lisa was until Penner told them at final tribal council. It had nothing to do with anyone's decision because they didn't know that about her until their minds had basically already been made up. Every single person on this cast knows who Mike White is. Even the people who haven't seen his movies have found out by now, because unlike Lisa, Mike isn't trying to keep it a secret, because he knows he can't.

Like, sorry, dude, but I'm going to trust the word of people who have actually played, especially given that it makes sense with, you know, how people work. I can't imagine how you came to the conclusion that we live in a world where, when given the opportunity to award a life-changing amount of money to one person, every single member of the jury is going to take the question of who might actually need that money and just cast it aside. Do you really think that's how people think? That a bunch of jurors getting drunk at Ponderosa and talking about who they want to win are going to say "hey, man, it doesn't matter that he already has a million dollars," unless he's either A. the most likable person they've ever met, or B. sitting next to two people that are absolutely despised? Tell me. I genuinely want to know how you think these decisions get made.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Spergatory posted:

I'm just going to assume you haven't watched Philippines recently. The jury didn't know who Lisa was until Penner told them at final tribal council. It had nothing to do with anyone's decision because they didn't know that about her until their minds had basically already been made up. Every single person on this cast knows who Mike White is. Even the people who haven't seen his movies have found out by now, because unlike Lisa, Mike isn't trying to keep it a secret, because he knows he can't.

Like, sorry, dude, but I'm going to trust the word of people who have actually played, especially given that it makes sense with, you know, how people work. I can't imagine how you came to the conclusion that we live in a world where, when given the opportunity to award a life-changing amount of money to one person, every single member of the jury is going to take the question of who might actually need that money and just cast it aside. Do you really think that's how people think? That a bunch of jurors getting drunk at Ponderosa and talking about who they want to win are going to say "hey, man, it doesn't matter that he already has a million dollars," unless he's either A. the most likable person they've ever met, or B. sitting next to two people that are absolutely despised? Tell me. I genuinely want to know how you think these decisions get made.

Is it a life-changing amount for Alison? I doubt it.

As far as Lisa goes, I know that there were people who knew before FTC so I assumed that word got out since people gossip, especially in Ponderosa where the booze flows.

Again, you have two examples of millionaires making it to the finals. One lost because of their game by your own admission, and the other won.

Lone Goat
Apr 16, 2003

When life gives you lemons, suplex those lemons.




maybe the jury that has, overall, been very chill about survivor being Just A Game will decide that the rich guy played the best and vote for him to win?

no! impossible!! I will type a billion dumb words to the contrary.

Poque
Sep 11, 2003

=^-^=
smh at all this brad culpepper amnesia

Spergatory
Oct 28, 2012
That's a ridiculous argument because I could just as easily say "three out of four millionaires who have made the finals have lost, and the only one that won was against two other historically hated (and in one case, self-proclaimed) millionaires." Jimmy Johnson was voted out because either somebody did not like how much sway he had over the tribe, or (depending on who you believe) because he basically asked for it because he wanted out of the game but didn't want to be seen quitting. Nobody knew who Jeff Kent was except Dawson, and she got voted out before she told anyone. And Lisa Whelchel was not a millionaire, by the way. Not even close.

I'm not saying it's the only consideration, or that there is no situation in which somebody like Mike could win. But it does matter, and it makes the game a lot harder for him to win. A doctor is not going to be looked at in the same way as a known celebrity.

Anyway, this is going nowhere, so I'm just going to say that I will definitely be obnoxiously linking every single post-season interview that mentions Mike White's wealth as a reason not to vote for him. And I fully expect you to do the same if anybody says otherwise. :colbert:

blue squares
Sep 28, 2007

Do we actually know that Mike is loaded? Just because he has sold a few screenplays doesn't guarantee that.

Spergatory
Oct 28, 2012

blue squares posted:

Do we actually know that Mike is loaded? Just because he has sold a few screenplays doesn't guarantee that.

That's true, but I think it's the perception of wealth that matters more than actual wealth. If the jury decides you're already a millionaire because you've sold some screenplays and been in a few movies, then that's what you are, and nothing short of your bank statements will convince them otherwise. That's pretty much what my argument boils down to; the most important factor in determining who wins is the story that the jurors tell themselves and each other once the game is over for them.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Lisa Welchel's net worth is three million dollars! (according to google)

I suppose she could have made most of that after she was on Survivor.

But I don't really listen to the followup stuff so you'll have to link them for me :haw:

Spergatory posted:

That's true, but I think it's the perception of wealth that matters more than actual wealth.

This is why I keep bringing up Alison's career in this :)

But yes, agree to disagree for now I suppose. Let's get ready for The Worst Finale Ever

SweetJahasus
Dec 23, 2005

Dragon Slayer
Samurai Warrior
Escape Artist
Viking
Chong-Ra Master

BE THE WIZARD

Do you ever post anything in this thread that isn't some huge inflammatory rant about something? You're not the only person here who has watched all of the seasons or listened to/read supplemental interviews with past contestants. Every group of people is different and they absolutely can and will award a millionaire if they like them. Hell, this season I could have absolutely seen them awarding John with the prize if he got there and he's like the WWF loving world champion or something right now so he's definitely pulling more social capital than Mike White.

Assuming you know what the jury is going to do is foolish, especially considering nearly everyone in this thread is disagreeing with you which means in the jury of this thread, you're the Susie.

InsensitiveSeaBass
Apr 1, 2008

You're entering a realm which is unusual. Maybe it's magic, or contains some kind of monster... The second one. Prepare to enter The Scary Door.
Nap Ghost
Christian's interviews are up. They should have made his six hour filibuster a double episode so we could have heard more of the craziness.

Spergatory
Oct 28, 2012
And here I thought "people think about money and are less likely to give it to someone who already has a lot" was one of my less controversial takes. You may recall that one of the situations I said a millionaire could win in was "being one of the most likable dudes you've ever met" which covers Johnny Mundo pretty nicely I'd say. Although he's definitely not a WWE champion, he runs in considerably smaller and less well-funded circles.

Also; people have actually been trying to vote Alison out of the game. There is the perception of a threat with her that isn't present with the other three Goliaths. I wonder? Makes you think. :hmmyes:

EDIT: And Susie only lost by one vote. Robbed! :argh:

DOUBLE EDIT: This topic has gotten too confrontational, so here's something everyone can enjoy and celebrate; Christian's awesome Ponderosa.

Spergatory fucked around with this message at 20:05 on Dec 13, 2018

A Typical Goon
Feb 25, 2011
Nice meltdown

Spergatory
Oct 28, 2012
:rolleyes:

Zesty
Jan 17, 2012

The Great Twist

Spergatory posted:

DOUBLE EDIT: This topic has gotten too confrontational

Consider easing up on the posting then.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Spergatory posted:

Also; people have actually been trying to vote Alison out of the game. There is the perception of a threat with her that isn't present with the other three Goliaths. I wonder? Makes you think. :hmmyes:

I think the perception of a "physical threat" is overblown in general in Survivor. It's pretty common for people to get voted out for being threats to win challenges (and thus giving them immunity) but I've always found that silly because if they don't have anything else to their game then does it really matter?

With Alison, that's what it feels is why they call her a threat, because she's possibly the most physically threatening player left (a case could be made for Kara though) and has been for so long that people just keep going with it. Like when you've been saying "Alison is a threat" for two weeks you just sort of assume it to be true, but is she really? I dunno, but the editing sure hasn't shown me any reason to believe she is. There's a reason I only have her above Angelina in my made up power rankings among the remaining players.

Poque
Sep 11, 2003

=^-^=

IcePhoenix posted:

I think the perception of a "physical threat" is overblown in general in Survivor. It's pretty common for people to get voted out for being threats to win challenges (and thus giving them immunity) but I've always found that silly because if they don't have anything else to their game then does it really matter?

With Alison, that's what it feels is why they call her a threat, because she's possibly the most physically threatening player left (a case could be made for Kara though) and has been for so long that people just keep going with it. Like when you've been saying "Alison is a threat" for two weeks you just sort of assume it to be true, but is she really? I dunno, but the editing sure hasn't shown me any reason to believe she is. There's a reason I only have her above Angelina in my made up power rankings among the remaining players.

The players accidentally overplaying Alison into a self-fulfilling-prophecy-winner would be extremely hilarious.

Zesty
Jan 17, 2012

The Great Twist
I bet Alison goes home at fire.

Everyone thinks she's a threat so she's put in the fire challenge. She loses so the editors under-edit her because don't want the audience to put their eggs in the Alison basket especially after their golden boy went home.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Poque posted:

The players accidentally overplaying Alison into a self-fulfilling-prophecy-winner would be extremely hilarious.

This is fair and accurate

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Spergatory
Oct 28, 2012
^ Yeah. Adam Klein talked about doing the same thing to David Wright; he spent hours publicly talking David up as a final tribal threat so people would get rid of him, which is great if he gets voted out because of it, but not-so-great if he makes it to the end, because if you call someone a threat and then fail to vote them out, what does that make you? So by calling Allison a threat, and trying and failing several times to vote her out, they've made her more of a threat, because now the jury has seen that people regard her as dangerous. Plus, now she has stories to tell. Now she can say she survived some near-Jeff experiences.

But yeah, the value/danger of muscles is overblown because immunity challenges are so random now. For all we know, the first challenge in the finale will be an omelet making contest judged by Probst.

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