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Paradoxish posted:Right. I'm not saying that $44/bbl is going to be a repeat of 2014, but it's dangerously close and oil has been declining steadily for a while now. If it does fall below $40 and holds then it's going to be a bloodbath regardless of how many weak companies were culled 4-5 years ago. I don’t think oil is going to go back up until it’s too late for the industry. As demand falls due to the transition to renewables, including in commercial applications, demand will fall, which will cause producers to lower prices to try to get demand up to meet production. Eventually they won’t have the demand to cover production, so they’ll raise the prices and cut production and try to take advantage of gasoline consumption as a niche industry, but it’ll be too late by that point. The really interesting thing is how a serious issue with the auto industry is emerging and lining itself up to potentially prevent the major players from being able to smoothly transition to electric vehicles in the late 2020s. New car production was cut so much during the last recession that used car inventory was down in the first part of the 2010s, which increased used car values, which meant auto makers could use high residuals to offer insanely low payments on leases. Leases have become almost a third of new car financing over the last 10 years, which has allowed auto makers to ramp up production and sell way more new cars, for way more (+28% higher average price since 2008) than they used to. On top of this, the largest financing segment is sub-prime, and the delinquency rate is almost up to 10%. So here’s what’s going to happen: new car values are going to collapse in the next 12-18 months. New car leases won’t be as attractive because residuals will drop, and the currently over-leveraged auto makers won’t be able to subsidize the residuals the way some, like BMW, have for the last several years. This is going to seriously damage the major auto makers. Suddenly you won’t be able to get a new Ford poo poo box SUV for $179 a month. Then there’s the coming transition to electric. Studies have shown that buyers will delay a new car purchase by up to 3 years if they decide to go electric but there are none that meet their needs. Auto makers have said the next generation of ICE engines will likely be their last before switching to electric, but that won’t be until the late 2020s. We have a collapsing oil industry with a glut of oil keeping gas prices low. A collapsing auto industry. And a glut of used ICE cars without clarity on when a larger selection of electrics will hit the market. That all combines to lead to a mini-boom in the used car industry. So, used car dealers are going to have an amazing time over the next ~6 years. Companies like Carvana are going to make bank. GM and Ford will probably either go bankrupt or get acquired. There is going to be a surge in demand for independent mechanics. Sorry for the  I just find this fascinating.
Jealous Cow fucked around with this message at 20:46 on Dec 24, 2018 |
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Dec 24, 2018 20:42
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So is it 500 for the torture and one for the kill? They could have given NK the friendly rates of 0.5 Bil. It's weird seeing a human life summed up in cash. And not to be mean to Warmbier, but that seems kind of high compared to other compensations.
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Dec 24, 2018 20:45
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why are they fining North Korea for using methods that are legal in the US
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Dec 24, 2018 20:47
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Jealous Cow posted:I don’t think oil is going to go back up until it’s too late for the industry. As demand falls due to the transition to renewables, including in commercial applications, demand will fall, which will cause producers to lower prices to try to get demand up to meet production. Eventually they won’t have the demand to cover production, so they’ll raise the prices and cut production and try to take advantage of gasoline consumption as a niche industry, but it’ll be too late by that point. Oil is largely going to be steady commercially for some time, diesel isn't going anywhere and even where it has been offset, they are just consuming double the amount of natural gas.
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Dec 24, 2018 20:47
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Yes, I can’t see how that could bring any measure of peace..
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Dec 24, 2018 20:47
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“Melania Trump’s difficult year” piss off CNN
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Dec 24, 2018 20:48
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Gort posted:why are they fining North Korea for using methods that are legal in the US Copyright infringement.
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Dec 24, 2018 20:49
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I know the bar is so low it's underground, but airing your petty grievances on Christmas Eve feels like a new pathetic low. I don't know how his petulant whining comes off as anything other than beta-cuck-ness.
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Dec 24, 2018 20:56
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Chef Boyardeez Nuts posted:Cool, now explain it for the non-catholics who read the book and were like "what the gently caress?" Is the Shrike the spacepope or something? No, the space-pope is the space-pope, I thought that part of the book was pretty straightforward.
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Dec 24, 2018 20:58
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Bellmaker posted:“Melania Trump’s difficult year” piss off CNN The piece manages to go downhill from there.
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Dec 24, 2018 20:58
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Bellmaker posted:“Melania Trump’s difficult year” piss off CNN It is usually difficult having to deal with a narcissistic asshat for more than a few hours let alone continually for years. I mean, she decided to do it for cash anyway, but most people do it because that's their job. Still, she is propping him up at this point and I can't sympathize with that.
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Dec 24, 2018 21:00
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The 25th amendment is not intended for a situation like Trump. If Trump is grossly incompetent and nefarious, the solution is impeachment. If the president has a stroke and is comatose, but hasn't committed an impeachable offense, then that's what the 25th should entail. There's this bizarre hope for a legal coup and it's just stupid.
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Dec 24, 2018 21:01
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If there's any consolation to Trump's Twitter meltdowns it's that the Trump dick sucking club he usually gets on twitter have gone completely silent and it's mainly just people screaming at him for loving their 401(k)'s and all the other bullshit from the last couple months. No Jacob Wohl at the top just blowing him, no more MAGAbots, just the anger and scorn you'd expect to see heaped upon a person that's spending their Christmas Eve doing this. Like he can't even get his tires pumped by his favorite social media platform anymore so much as get told finally and in unfiltered form how he's utter poo poo at being President so I'm not even sure why he's spending so much time on it still. It's basically down to just Fox and Friends at this point so I'm surprised he isn't just calling in to talk to Steve Doucy and get his validation from one of the few remaining and reliable streams.
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Dec 24, 2018 21:01
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Can’t help but be reminded of this. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbbUYhyoWz8 Only, you know, not funny. In the same way. Cw though: Kevin spacey
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Dec 24, 2018 21:03
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cant cook creole bream posted:So is it 500 for the torture and one for the kill? They could have given NK the friendly rates of 0.5 Bil. It is ludicrously high compared to other compensations. edit: like, this doesn't map perfectly to "intentionally tortured a dude and he died from it", but 12m is on the high end of what a government will spend to save one actuarial life if there aren't other public perception concerns Goatse James Bond fucked around with this message at 21:09 on Dec 24, 2018 |
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Dec 24, 2018 21:04
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evilmiera posted:It is usually difficult having to deal with a narcissistic asshat for more than a few hours let alone continually for years. I mean, she decided to do it for cash anyway, but most people do it because that's their job. Also she's getting paid whereas all of the rest of us now have to do it for free, so gently caress her.
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Dec 24, 2018 21:04
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Data Graham posted:Cw though: Kevin spacey He posted this today: https://twitter.com/KevinSpacey/status/1077263549326651392 The most brazen, disgusting response to #MeToo possible.
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Dec 24, 2018 21:06
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Tibalt posted:The 25th amendment is not intended for a situation like Trump. If Trump is grossly incompetent and nefarious, the solution is impeachment. If the president has a stroke and is comatose, but hasn't committed an impeachable offense, then that's what the 25th should entail. Impeachment is also a lot easier than 25th Amendment forced removal.
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Dec 24, 2018 21:07
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my bony fealty posted:Dan Simmons is One of his book series had a weird twist where the future Muslims doomed humanity and only a time travelling classics professor can stop it.
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Dec 24, 2018 21:07
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I wonder what Trump's version of The Death of Stalin will look like.
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Dec 24, 2018 21:09
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SNL needs to get Baldwin in to reenact the bunker scene from Downfall as Trump.
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Dec 24, 2018 21:11
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Crabtree posted:I wonder what Trump's version of The Death of Stalin will look like. i hope it ends up like beira's part.
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Dec 24, 2018 21:11
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Crabtree posted:I wonder what Trump's version of The Death of Stalin will look like. Trump slowly closing his eyes, an advisor swearing that the finally dead corpse, only to be horrified as it loudly voids its bowls for the better part of thirty minutes.
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Dec 24, 2018 21:12
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Caros posted:Trump slowly closing his eyes, an advisor swearing that the finally dead corpse, only to be horrified as it loudly voids its bowls for the better part of thirty minutes. So the Henry VIII option, nice.
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Dec 24, 2018 21:15
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Is this the most pathetic he’s ever been on Twitter? I think it is. Oh 100% and it's impressive too because my god has he just been utterly pathetic particularly since losing the house. I just still don't get it, I keep coming back to it but what is the purpose of leaving this guy in office? At least SOMETHING positive for the United States and it's Western Democratic allies might get done under a semi-functional human being, but not with this guy that just wants to whine the days away for the next 2 years. At this point I don't even know what a re-election campaign is gonna possibly look like? Like what's he going to run on? "Vote for me again, I lost the house for my party badly under favorable economic conditions. Vote for me again if you want more endless whining and lying on twitter, self-centeredness to a self-parodying degree, campaign promises I can't deliver on even with total control of all branches of government, the worst policy decision making and prioritizing humanly possible that pisses off everybody but our enemies, a bad unstable economy, corruption unlike anything seen since the Grant administration with people quitting high level cabinet positions all the time, and an ever encroaching sense of unease about what terrible thing will happen to the United States next." I think the last couple weeks have done it, I don't see how he's going to win the presidency again. Maybe even after he won the house I'd have put him at 50/50 because of his base (and even then it looks like Michigan and Pennsylvania have turned on him already), but I just cannot see it now. If he runs again and wins it's because the electorate doesn't want a functional stable democratic republic anymore. 1stGear posted:The founders assumed our elected officials would govern in good faith, with the interest of the country foremost. Can't win em all I guess 
Kale fucked around with this message at 21:21 on Dec 24, 2018 |
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Dec 24, 2018 21:16
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remusclaw posted:SNL needs to get Baldwin in to reenact the bunker scene from Downfall as Trump. What if they just hired somebody who does a good impression and then went far enough so that the satire works. Until their Trump is wearing a diaper and getting hosed down with piss from Super Soakers wielded by tween beauty pageant contestants, then they aren’t trying to keep up with the actual level of absurdity we’re dealing with. SNL’s political satire, by and large, is apolitical in any meaningful sense. It’s about exaggerating quirks or whatever, but rarely makes a cogent criticism of the politics of the targets. But they’re failing at even the exaggeration part because, in part I suspect, Baldwin won’t put on a diaper.
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Dec 24, 2018 21:17
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Tormented posted:haha this is bullshit. How do you not smell or feel it when you pick it up even if it was purple colored wrapping around the chocolate, your just going eat through it? gently caress you. I've done this before. It wasn't fun. Granted, I was 4 years old at the time.
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Dec 24, 2018 21:17
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Just checked in on The_Donald and they are, predictably, blaming the market decline on the tyranny of the Fed. End the Fed and Audit the Fed! https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/comments/a96dh2/fyi_the_federal_reserve_is_actively_trying_to/
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Dec 24, 2018 21:17
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Ague Proof posted:He posted this today: Jesus Christ 
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Dec 24, 2018 21:18
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GreyjoyBastard posted:are you trying to make me Dan Simmons is kind of a wingnut, though.
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Dec 24, 2018 21:19
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not a cult posted:Jesus Christ 
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Dec 24, 2018 21:20
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Crabtree posted:I wonder what Trump's version of The Death of Stalin will look like. I dunno, but if it doesn't star John Goodman as Steve Bannon and Kevin James as Alex Jones, I'm not watching it.
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Dec 24, 2018 21:21
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Ague Proof posted:He posted this today: He is also facing charges so... Yeah, not great timing on that either
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Dec 24, 2018 21:21
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Delthalaz posted:Just checked in on The_Donald and they are, predictably, blaming the market decline on the tyranny of the Fed. End the Fed and Audit the Fed! My chud coworker has been railing on Powell and the Fed for the last few months, it's the last scapegoat.
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Dec 24, 2018 21:22
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Kale posted:Oh 100% and it's impressive too because my god has he just been utterly pathetic particularly since losing the house. I just still don't get it, I keep coming back to it but what is the purpose of leaving this guy in office? At least SOMETHING positive for the United States and it's Western Democratic allies might get done under a semi-functional human being, but not with this guy that just wants to whine the days away for the next 2 years. Americans vote based on the six months or so leading up to the election, not the full two years. If he pulls himself together (lol) a meltdown in December 2018 will matter less than nothing. He won't pull himself together though And the real perceived benefit of keeping him in office is (potentially) preserving the jobs of republican congresspeople whose votes are needed to remove him from office. Those senators benefit from not removing him and congress is the only people whose opinion matters in our hosed up system
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Dec 24, 2018 21:23
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The Fed is already a conspiracy theory boogeyman so, whatever I guess. I remember one of the big 9/11 inside job conspiracy docs moved onto the fed before finally settling on it's third topic which if I remember correctly was... something about religion?
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Dec 24, 2018 21:25
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Ague Proof posted:
I'm old enough that I read # as "pound", because it is the number sign but usually called the pound sign. I was never clear on why twitter decided (or was it someone else that they stole it from?) to start calling it hashtag. It makes some things parse.. in unintended ways though.
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Dec 24, 2018 21:27
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Ague Proof posted:He posted this today: I love how I every time I think that we're at peak WTF, and that I can't possibly be any more disgusted or surprised, something like this comes along
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Dec 24, 2018 21:27
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Tibalt posted:The 25th amendment is not intended for a situation like Trump. If Trump is grossly incompetent and nefarious, the solution is impeachment. If the president has a stroke and is comatose, but hasn't committed an impeachable offense, then that's what the 25th should entail. I hope this doesn't sound like the biggest "Well, actually" possible, but one of the cases that they were thinking of when the 25th Amendment was the Woodrow Wilson case. After his stroke, Woodrow Wilson was not able to perform as he was before, he was half-paralyzed, had problems speaking, but he was apparently mostly cognitively the same. The 25th Amendment doesn't specify the degree of medical impairment, it just puts such a high bar on it that it is very unlikely to pass unless there is something very obviously wrong. Like, there isn't a single line where something like a stroke makes someone incapacitated. Someone can have a stroke with no overt symptoms, someone can have a stroke with minor aphasia and movement problems, someone can have a stroke with major aphasia and movement problems, or someone can have a stroke and be "shut in", unable to communicate. The 25th Amendment doesn't describe where that medical bar is, just that it has to be so that they can't discharge the powers of their office. Just like Impeachment is a political process, not a criminal process, the 25th Amendment is a political process, not a medical process. But in practical terms, there would have to be much more obvious signs of dementia before it would be discussed realistically.
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Dec 24, 2018 21:27
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He must be so lonely He must be so sad He goes to extremes to convince us he's bad He's really a victim of fear and of pride Look close and there must be a sweet man inside Naaaah! Uh Uh
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Dec 24, 2018 21:35
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