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paul_soccer10 posted:guess i missed the post were someone implied assad was going to genocide the kurds. apologies I don't think Assad is going to genocide the Kurds (or at least, I have no particular knowledge to suggest that he would want to specifically), my question was if he would protect the Kurds from Turkey.
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Dec 29, 2018 01:27
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Atrocious Joe posted:that guy has a case of terminally online, and apparently got kicked out of his local DSA for hijacking meetings demanding they support the bombing of Syria remember when the dsa put that pro-FSA policy statement on their website and everyone jumped down their throats well: https://www.dsausa.org/tags/syria maybe he was one of the guys that wrote that having trouble finding it again. it was a good read
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Dec 29, 2018 01:30
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It's impossible to imagine anybody stanning for Turkey and the FSA unless they're being paid to.
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Dec 29, 2018 02:09
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:It's impossible to imagine anybody stanning for Turkey and the FSA unless they're being paid to. May I ask what the FSA is?
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Dec 29, 2018 02:25
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Lightning Knight posted:May I ask what the FSA is? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_Syrian_Army
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Dec 29, 2018 02:27
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I assume in this context the relevant bit is "After the Turkish military intervention in Syria in 2016, an informal group of Turkish-backed Arabs and Turkmen was established under the name "Free Syrian Army",[26] with on-ground support of an organised military backed by Turkish and British airpower.[27] The group closely cooperates with Turkish troops in Syria.[28]"
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Dec 29, 2018 02:29
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weird Allies Current: Turkey (2011–present) Qatar (2011–present) Norway (2016–present)[5]
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Dec 29, 2018 02:29
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Lightning Knight posted:I assume in this context the relevant bit is "After the Turkish military intervention in Syria in 2016, an informal group of Turkish-backed Arabs and Turkmen was established under the name "Free Syrian Army",[26] with on-ground support of an organised military backed by Turkish and British airpower.[27] The group closely cooperates with Turkish troops in Syria.[28]" yeah these days theyre mostly islamist fighters rebranded as FSA acting as the ground troops while turkish troops just man the artillery i think, idk
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Dec 29, 2018 02:31
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Assad has been the cause of the dead people and the broken country and the refugee flows, but on the other hand some people grow beards and get paid by Turkey. These things are the same, to me.
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Dec 29, 2018 02:54
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Fat Lowtax posted:Assad has been the cause of the dead people and the broken country and the refugee flows, but on the other hand some people grow beards and get paid by Turkey. These things are the same, to me. 
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Dec 29, 2018 03:05
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owned bitch
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Dec 29, 2018 03:25
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Lightning Knight posted:May I ask what the FSA is? Lightning Knight posted:I assume in this context the relevant bit is "After the Turkish military intervention in Syria in 2016, an informal group of Turkish-backed Arabs and Turkmen was established under the name "Free Syrian Army",[26] with on-ground support of an organised military backed by Turkish and British airpower.[27] The group closely cooperates with Turkish troops in Syria.[28]" The FSA was always a coalition of groups that included --democratic republican syrian dissident factions of every conceivable stripe --whatever local grab-bag of army defectors (not necessarily exclusive from the above) --islamist factions who were very very glad to accept recruits and money from abroad (much as the kurds did, fwiw) Until 2014-ish there's an utterly amoral but sincere case to be made that if the USA just covered its eyes and straight-up threw its weight behind "moderate opposition" (as if that isn't itself an absurd term in the context of a civil war) that events could have wrapped up quickly. I do not think this would have been the case, I think that's a really stupid ideology that's killed a million trillion billion folk and hasn't even created cool ruins to replace what was destroyed like other rapacious conquerors did, and there was a solid four year stretch where pointing out the incredibly obvious pitfalls in this ideology was a probatable offense in the D&D MEthread because Brown Moses basically ran it full time, and I sure as poo poo don't blame the rest of D&D's mods washing their hands of it because it was bad enough to read as Just Some Guy. By 2014 however, after the Ghouta "red line" attacks it was clear that Obama would never actively intervene in Syria--despite his repeated promises!--because he'd be successfully attacked from the left by Republicans on war policy. This is a filler sentence that means nothing, because if you read the previous sentence correctly you're now having a massive aneurysm at how loving weird SCW discourse is. This, on top of islamist cells winning battles while secular cells lost, crushed the parts of the FSA that were not receiving foreign support, to wit: ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra (who themselves were New Al Qaeda and Old Al Qaeda respectively. In the last days of his life, Osama bin Laden was highly concerned with the young radical upstarts who wanted to create the Caliphate immediately rather than deal with the outside threat to the ummah first.) That ISIS was able to expand like it did in early 2014 is largely because of this collapse--even with Lebanese Hezbollah, and the IRGC "observers" the Syrian regime was on the ropes prior to Russian intervention. This brings the list of factions up to --secular FSA (hosed up, starving, demoralized, not getting western support, looking for a home) --JaN affiliates, competing for the remains of the above with --ISIS. who, by 2014 is in active conflict with --The syrian kurds, not to be confused with the iraqi kurds who are also in the news a lot but are also fighting with ISIS because ISIS is popping off a LOT by 2014 --The regime. Assisted by: Lebanese Hezbollah, the IRGC, and the Russians. Which is probably why Israel swallows its bile and renders aid to ISIS fighters who straggle across the Golan, lmfao This is a CAP outline of "FSA" command as of mid-2013. I would draw your eyes to the handful of paragraphs where they write "the Kurds" okay, did you read that? All those whopping grade school paragraphs? Okay, heres what that command structure actually looks like:  That can be written for every subheading in that paper, except more complicated, because you have to outline who gets their guns and pay from which nation-state. And in this loving mess, interventionists would have you believe if we just stuck our dicks in the beehive sooner it would have looked prettier. I respectfully disagree, based on the USA's prior track record in such conflicts. ISIS gets schwacked by US air power and the Kurds (both syrian and iraqi), Iraq retakes Mosul in coordination with the US air power that let Mosul fall in the first place and rotates to a position of relative stability behind a nationalist coalition led by Moqtada al-Sadr who you may remember from when the US tried to kill him in Najaf after invading lmfao and the SAA and Russians shore up their front so what's left of the "FSA" is consigned to Idlib province. This is about as decent a summary of how things stand as you'll find I'll direct you to page 12 for the real meat of it however (what precedes page 12 is a very interesting historiography of how think tanks process bureaucratic incontinence as it pertains to waging wars abroad). The rebel groups in Idlib have fought each other every bit as hard as they've fought the regime. Jabhat al-Nusra got cannibalized into Haftar al-Sham, which fragmented and got itself into conflict with the Turkish-funded bits of the otherwise Gulf-funded alliance, and if you read the report a bit further down, you can link it to current events which are: SAA is moving into Manbij, because those factions made a deal. And Syrian prisons have been having a firesale of executions lately. Probably in preparation for the intake from Idlib. This war has made a habit of making fools of folk making predictions about anything, though. Willie Tomg has issued a correction as of 04:10 on Dec 29, 2018 |
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Dec 29, 2018 03:32
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Fat Lowtax posted:Assad has been the cause of the dead people and the broken country and the refugee flows, but on the other hand some people grow beards and get paid by Turkey. These things are the same, to me. shut the gently caress up, hooker.
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Dec 29, 2018 03:32
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Fat Lowtax posted:Assad has been the cause of the dead people and the broken country and the refugee flows, but on the other hand some people grow beards and get paid by Turkey. These things are the same, to me. would you say that assad must go?
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Dec 29, 2018 03:39
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mila kunis posted:would you say that assad must go? If he's good enough for Sisi and the house of Saud he's good enough for me
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Dec 29, 2018 03:43
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drat, I hate both those guys and now fully support permanent civil war in Syria wtf
mila kunis has issued a correction as of 04:07 on Dec 29, 2018 |
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Dec 29, 2018 03:47
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i wont stop posting until everyone in syria is dead in a 50 year civil war
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Dec 29, 2018 03:52
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Fat Lowtax posted:If he's good enough for Sisi and the house of Saud he's good enough for me new, huh?
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Dec 29, 2018 03:52
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:It's impossible to imagine anybody stanning for Turkey and the FSA unless they're being paid to. you dont need to pay insane nationalists to shitpost buddy
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Dec 29, 2018 03:55
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Willie Tomg posted:This war has made a habit of making fools about of folk making predictions about anything, though. Speaking of which, Former US Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford came out with an op ed in the Washington Post basically supporting Trump's decision in Syria. Ford had to leave Syria in 2011 after going around the country saying Assad Must Go. So this was a bit of a surprise when I read it. https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/1078630499323707392 Ford does now work for the Middle East Institute, which gets funds from the UAE. The UAE is repairing relations with Syria, having just reopened it's embassy there. So that may partly explain his change in heart.
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Dec 29, 2018 03:55
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bSVD0MrgMNc
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Dec 29, 2018 04:05
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Willie Tomg posted:This war has made a habit of making fools of folk making predictions about anything, though. I forced myself to read that entire CAP paper and this entire post and I'm really grateful to you for writing it but holy poo poo I don't think I absorbed more than 10% of what I read and I'd have to sit down and write a paper to even begin committing this to memory. 
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Dec 29, 2018 04:14
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Willie Tomg posted:there was a solid four year stretch where pointing out the incredibly obvious pitfalls in this ideology was a probatable offense in the D&D MEthread because Brown Moses basically ran it full time, and I sure as poo poo don't blame the rest of D&D's mods washing their hands of it because it was bad enough to read as Just Some Guy. i'm lolling at this insane conflict of interest
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Dec 29, 2018 04:22
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Homeless Friend posted:i'm lolling at this insane conflict of interest Yeah I'm not going to lie, I don't have a firm position on the validity or value of BM's work as a journalist but making him a D&D mod seems to have been unwise from the perspective of how threads about the Middle East and Eastern Europe are modded. I've been trying to learn more about international politics and the politics of regions that I'm not super familiar with for the purposes of modding threads on those topics but it's tough with real life + school/work + ADHD.
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Dec 29, 2018 04:24
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i think brown moses is cool but i also think hes an rear end in a top hat
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Dec 29, 2018 04:58
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Lightning Knight posted:I forced myself to read that entire CAP paper and this entire post and I'm really grateful to you for writing it but holy poo poo I don't think I absorbed more than 10% of what I read and I'd have to sit down and write a paper to even begin committing this to memory. absolutely appropriate and not least of which b/c i truncated the gently caress out of the last seven years of history in syria-but-also-iraq-they-bleed-into-each-other-but-also-not-look-its-really-complicated-okay. i've been following the subject assiduously since 2011 (arguably 2002 if you want to get fussy about where, exactly, the war "began") and its barely enough for me to keep up with, i can't even imagine what its like to come into fresh in what's basically 2019. for instance there's an entire 2012-2015ish subplot where the CIA and pentagon largely independatly backed FSA factions and Kurdish factions respectively in the ways they were able to under the Obama administration--which basically meant Lawyers, Guns, and Money--and those factions fought each other (with training and materiel in the case of the CIA and FSA factions, and troops, materiel and airstrikes in the case of the pentagon and the kurdish factions which would become the arab-kurdish SDF), and also Gulf factions like Jabhat al-Nusra which ultimately triumphed before JaN got owned in Idlib. so for actual years you had a D&D thread full of videos like this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63ehKu7tYlY and you were either ignored as a "pro-assadist shill" or outright probed for asking things like --what exactly are those guys saying, again? my arabic is a little shaky --how did this group get NATO issue ATGMs in loving aleppo of all places on earth? it culminated in this insanely funny moment where a 4 star general draws the short straw in the pentagon and has to answer for a CIA program training and arming dudes who walked straight into JaN's ranks in open testimony. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y8PKXrLM1_g (he retired a year later. probably just a coincidence.) i would offer only this guideline: this war makes a fuckin' mockery of End Of History ideology. if you feel gross and confused and uncomfortable that means your brain is working throughout. turkey is funding salafists, against the gulf which is also funding salafists. the IRGC and Russia allied in the trenches with baathists fighting for urbanist populists. SEALs are taking scalps and calling in airstrikes for kurdish communists. and it turned the Republicans into the loving anti-war faction of convenience in DC outside of the marginalized Bernie Dems. it has tested my anti-war principles to their absolute limits because emotionally i know the usa has a hundred tons of cold liquid to splash on the flames, but academically i know its actually gasoline IRL. if someone offers you The One Serious Opinion they're full of loving poo poo. theres a lot grim about the SCW, there's nothing at all serious about it. not anymore, not from a western observer's perspective, anyway. Willie Tomg has issued a correction as of 05:31 on Dec 29, 2018 |
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Dec 29, 2018 05:28
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it is strange that in this one particular case, the Saudis and UAE are admitting they lost and are trying to restore relations to the SyrianDarkman Fanpage posted:you dont need to pay insane nationalists to shitpost buddy American nationalists have zero reason to care about Turkey and especially the PKK. paid talking points can be spotted from a mile away when it comes to Turkey. keep in mind, these guys plotted with Flynn .jr to kidnap Gulen, and paid all those dancers in New York to say Erdogan = Peace and the Armenian genocide is a lie.
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Dec 29, 2018 05:31
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the one serious opinion about Syria is that The Assad Must Go Curse is real.
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Dec 29, 2018 05:34
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in summary:  Pener Kropoopkin posted:American nationalists have zero reason to care about Turkey and especially the PKK. paid talking points can be spotted from a mile away when it comes to Turkey. and then there's this whole angle https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ABxKDwEUoU&t=29s
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Dec 29, 2018 05:39
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:it is strange that in this one particular case, the Saudis and UAE are admitting they lost and are trying to restore relations to the Syrian The Syrian Civil War is old news. The Saudi/Emirati vs Turkish/Qatari cold war is the new hotness.
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Dec 29, 2018 05:45
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Willie Tomg posted:in summary: What...? That video...
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Dec 29, 2018 05:47
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broke pretend liberal: russia should be bombed for taking out right wing facebook ads during the election. how dare another country interfere with our process bespoke actual american: JUST COMING INTO WORK ON TUESDAY FLAG DANCING IN TIMES SQUARE Y'ALL, FRIDAYS SURE ARE CRAZY TRUTH = PEACE #NEXT100YEARS
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Dec 29, 2018 05:47
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Jack2142 posted:What...? The top pic roughly translates to "what're we doing tonight, Brain?" "The same thing we do every night, Pinky... try to take over Darayya! the bottom video is self explanatory.  yeah. its definitely you, who has the problem. Willie Tomg has issued a correction as of 06:02 on Dec 29, 2018 |
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Dec 29, 2018 05:49
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this is still probably the tweet of the year: https://twitter.com/Syrian_SR/status/1054347137125883905
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Dec 29, 2018 05:51
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Willie Tomg posted:in summary: wwhat/// the gently caress
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Dec 29, 2018 05:58
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Willie Tomg posted:if someone offers you The One Serious Opinion they're full of loving poo poo. theres a lot grim about the SCW, there's nothing at all serious about it. not anymore, not from a western observer's perspective, anyway. Jesus Christ.  If you're not too busy would you be willing to email me? I'm interested to talk more about this but my questions are probably too earnest and stupid to bother this thread with.
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Dec 29, 2018 06:03
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just post em in the thread
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Dec 29, 2018 06:07
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:it is strange that in this one particular case, the Saudis and UAE are admitting they lost and are trying to restore relations to the Syrian they have only one thing going for them and thats money, they're trying to bribe assad away from marching lockstep with iran.
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Dec 29, 2018 06:07
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mila kunis posted:just post em in the thread
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Dec 29, 2018 06:08
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hey does anyone have a copy of the intro to State of Myths? not only was it goddamned hilarious, the full track was a banger. i think it got Memory Holed 
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Dec 29, 2018 06:09
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