Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
Clyde Radcliffe
Oct 19, 2014

I have a fleet of drones ready and waiting to deliver bananas across the Irish Sea to my British Brexiteers.

If u need bananas just pick up your mobile and ring ring ring bananadrone

Where do I sign up to get my no-bid government contract for this incredibly well thought out idea?

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

hakimashou
Jul 15, 2002
Upset Trowel
It looks like Corbyn is courting electoral catastrophe if he backs the brexit

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/05/brexit-corbyn-electoral-catastrophe-yougov-poll

quote:

This polarisation poses acute problems for Jeremy Corbyn as well as Theresa May. The Labour leader fears that if his party backs a public vote and then campaigns for a Remain victory he will alienate Leave voters in Labour’s heartlands.

YouGov’s figures suggest that, far from boosting Labour’s support, Corbyn’s approach could lead to electoral catastrophe.

The conventional voting intention question produces a six-point Conservative lead (40% to 34%). This is bad enough for an opposition that ought to be reaping electoral dividends at a time when the government is in crisis.

However, when voters are asked how they would vote if Labour failed to resist Brexit, the Conservatives open up a 17-point lead (43% to 26%). That would be an even worse result than in Margaret Thatcher’s landslide victory in 1983, when Labour slumped to 209 seats, its worst result since the 1930s.

Yinlock
Oct 22, 2008

hakimashou posted:

It looks like Corbyn is courting electoral catastrophe if he backs the brexit

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/05/brexit-corbyn-electoral-catastrophe-yougov-poll

yougov lol

Yinlock
Oct 22, 2008

alphabettitouretti posted:

It was put forward by Labour though, so I don't think it's a tactic to go no deal? Tories were whipped to vote against it.

oh I figured it was more rear end smoke by tory "rebels"

that's at least promising then

hakimashou
Jul 15, 2002
Upset Trowel

SMILLENNIALSMILLEN posted:

Oh so he is antibrexit?

Some people believe he has a secret plan to fight the brexit.

JFairfax
Oct 23, 2008

by FactsAreUseless

hakimashou posted:

Some people believe he has a secret plan to fight the brexit.

yeah it's called voting down Tmay's deal and getting an amendment passed which signifies parliament will not tolerate no deal.

dont be mean to me
May 2, 2007

I'm interplanetary, bitch
Let's go to Mars


JFairfax posted:

yeah it's called voting down Tmay's deal and getting an amendment passed which signifies parliament will not tolerate no deal.

what does "not tolerate" even mean in this context

JFairfax
Oct 23, 2008

by FactsAreUseless

dont be mean to me posted:

what does "not tolerate" even mean in this context

it means parliament don't want no deal.

Moridin920
Nov 15, 2007

by FactsAreUseless
but what does it all mean, Basil?

oystertoadfish
Jun 17, 2003

how many Tory remain and labour leave voters are there? wasn't the brexit vote pretty close to even? that'd imply that if corbyn has a leave constituency, May would have a remain one roughly the same size (I know there's more than two parties, lmk if that makes a big difference here), wouldn't it? maybe not, idk

you guys do refer to Tory 'rebels', is it just that the Tory remain people are ineffectual while there's a debate going on about how to deal with their opposite counterparts and that's the reason I'm only hearing things about the latter?

thanks y'all

Fallen Hamprince
Nov 12, 2016

there is no parliamentary majority for no deal

there is also no parliamentary majority for any of the alternatives to no deal

no deal is the only outcome that does not require a parliamentary majority to occur, because a no deal brexit is the default outcome of invoking article 50

dont be mean to me
May 2, 2007

I'm interplanetary, bitch
Let's go to Mars


JFairfax posted:

it means parliament don't want no deal.

nobody gives a poo poo about what anyone wants

what's the amendment actually do

Whorelord
May 1, 2013

Jump into the well...

it gives the uk the second amendment from the usa's constitution only instead of being a completely ineffective way of stopping an oppressive government, it gives us the right to shoot down drones instead

Fans
Jun 27, 2013

A reptile dysfunction

hakimashou posted:

It looks like Corbyn is courting electoral catastrophe if he backs the brexit

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/05/brexit-corbyn-electoral-catastrophe-yougov-poll

It's kind of weaselly how they report this because the polling question isn't "Labour fails to resist Brexit" its

quote:

Please imagine that a Brexit deal passes because it is supported by most Conservative MPs and Labour does not instruct its MPs
to oppose it. The Liberal Democrats [SCOTLAND: "and the SNP", WALES: "and Plaid Cymru"] oppose it. How would you vote at the next election?

Also known as "poo poo that is never going to happen"

They ask how people would vote if Labour voted for or Abstain on it, but weirdly don't bother to ask people for the only one that's got any chance of happening, Labour votes against and it happens anyway.

Ultimately all it tells us is if Labour allows Theresa May's deal to pass they'd get loving bodied in an election and yeah, no poo poo they would. Reporting it as something else is just lovely reporting.

Fans has issued a correction as of 00:25 on Jan 9, 2019

Ichabod Tane
Oct 30, 2005

A most notable
coward, an infinite and endless liar, an hourly promise breaker, the owner of no one good quality.


https://youtu.be/_Ojd0BdtMBY?t=4
It's not a fair comparison but I'm just imagining how anyone who survived the bombings of Britain by the Nazis must feel when they see that Britain has been brought to it's knees by a single drone.

oystertoadfish
Jun 17, 2003

There were zero to two drones in the air,
There were zero to two drones in the air,
There were zero to two drones, zero to two drones, zero to two drones in the air.

And the police from Sussex shut down Gatwick,
And the police from Met shut down Heathrow,
And the Parliament from England, Parliament from England,
The Parliament from England shut down England.

---

idk why im attempting british football song satire but eh

Hexyflexy
Sep 2, 2011

asymptotically approaching one

oystertoadfish posted:

There were zero to two drones in the air,
There were zero to two drones in the air,
There were zero to two drones, zero to two drones, zero to two drones in the air.

And the police from Sussex shut down Gatwick,
And the police from Met shut down Heathrow,
And the Parliament from England, Parliament from England,
The Parliament from England shut down England.

---

idk why im attempting british football song satire but eh

Who’s the bastard in the black? It isn’t a drone, because that never happened.

Captain Splendid
Jan 7, 2009

Qu'en pense Caffarelli?

hakimashou posted:

Some people believe he has a secret plan to fight the brexit.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005


:thejoke:

hakimashou
Jul 15, 2002
Upset Trowel

dont be mean to me posted:

what does "not tolerate" even mean in this context

It’s a riddle. One solution is "no brexit" another solution is "pass a deal."

Which solution Corbyn plans to pursue is a secret he won’t share.

Another possible solution is that it is like how the US vowed it would not tolerate a nuclear-armed North Korea.

hakimashou has issued a correction as of 01:49 on Jan 9, 2019

hakimashou
Jul 15, 2002
Upset Trowel

Fans posted:

It's kind of weaselly how they report this because the polling question isn't "Labour fails to resist Brexit" its


Also known as "poo poo that is never going to happen"

They ask how people would vote if Labour voted for or Abstain on it, but weirdly don't bother to ask people for the only one that's got any chance of happening, Labour votes against and it happens anyway.

Ultimately all it tells us is if Labour allows Theresa May's deal to pass they'd get loving bodied in an election and yeah, no poo poo they would. Reporting it as something else is just lovely reporting.

What if they refuse to pass her deal and then there’s a no-deal brexit instead though?

XMNN
Apr 26, 2008
I am incredibly stupid

dont be mean to me posted:

nobody gives a poo poo about what anyone wants

what's the amendment actually do

not much, some boring poo poo about taxes in the event of no deal

more importantly it's a government defeat on an amendment to a finance bill, which is unusual in itself, and demonstrates that not all of the tory remainers are useless gobshites who talk a big game and then bottle it at the vote

which in turn means that if/when may's deal fails and the government have to come back to parliament to say what they want to do next, which thanks to grieves amendment is amendable (lol), there may be a majority of mps in favour of options that avoid no deal

which is a big if; the only real options to do that are a second referendum (which would need an extension to a50 and hence the consent of the eu27) or calling the whole thing off altogether and neither of those are particularly palatable (to tory remainer mps, Im all for them)

basically may needs to win over the brexiteers and the dup to pass her deal, which seems unlikely, at which point labour et al and enough tory remainer rebels to defeat the government would potentially be able to stop no deal, and now we know that there might actually be enough tory rebels

XMNN has issued a correction as of 01:55 on Jan 9, 2019

XMNN
Apr 26, 2008
I am incredibly stupid

hakimashou posted:

What if they refuse to pass her deal and then there’s a no-deal brexit instead though?

i mean they're hosed if they vote for the deal, so thats not really an option

everything after that is up in the air but essentially no deal is avoidable and may would have to make a conscious decision not to avoid it so thats sort of on her and I think even the british public are capable of realising that people voting against the governments plan to crash out of the eu probably want to stop the uk crashing out of the eu

not to say people definitely wont blame labour, just that it's not certain seeing as even though no deal is technically the default may will actually have to stare down attempts to prevent it from labour, the snp and possibly some of her own back benchers

obv the country will be hosed, but its probs hosed anyway whatever happens

hakimashou
Jul 15, 2002
Upset Trowel

XMNN posted:

i mean they're hosed if they vote for the deal, so thats not really an option

everything after that is up in the air but essentially no deal is avoidable and may would have to make a conscious decision not to avoid it so thats sort of on her and I think even the british public are capable of realising that people voting against the governments plan to crash out of the eu probably want to stop the uk crashing out of the eu

not to say people definitely wont blame labour, just that it's not certain seeing as even though no deal is technically the default may will actually have to stare down attempts to prevent it from labour, the snp and possibly some of her own back benchers

obv the country will be hosed, but its probs hosed anyway whatever happens

I’m honestly curious, what kind of deal does Labour want and how is it different from May’s?

XMNN
Apr 26, 2008
I am incredibly stupid
the official answer is one which meets the six tests


quote:

1. Does it ensure a strong and collaborative future relationship with the EU?

2. Does it deliver the “exact same benefits” as we currently have as members of the Single Market and Customs Union?

3. Does it ensure the fair management of migration in the interests of the economy and communities?

4. Does it defend rights and protections and prevent a race to the bottom?

5. Does it protect national security and our capacity to tackle cross-border crime?

6. Does it deliver for all regions and nations of the UK?
which are essentially impossible (probably by design)

the real answer basically depends on which bit of labour you're talking about; short answer: not anything may has negotiated, longer answer: anyone that thinks we should/have to leave wants the softest possible Brexit (usually people point at Norway), pretty much everyone else wants to find some way to call the whole thing off

if may didn't hate immigrants to the exclusion of almost all else then she may have been able to negotiate a closer economic relationship, so if a labour government had been in charge it's conceivable that's what they'd have gone for

unfortunately/fortunately May decided to exclude opposition parties from shaping the future of the country so the labour party have been able to adopt an ambiguous enough position to not come off as completely ignoring the referendum whilst not pissing off their massively pro-remain membership/activists/MPs, which isn't entirely satisfactory but the only other option was to adopt an explicit position that alienated a bunch of people and didn't actually achieve anything as they had no actual power to influence the negotiations

side lol: may could really do with votes from opposition parties as there is a large tory nutter wing and the dup that probably won't vote for her deal, if she had negotiated something acceptable to other parties rather than one that would somehow please both wings of her own she might actually have been able to pass it

obv she would have destroyed her career.and probably the Tory party but she managed that anyway

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

Baloogan posted:

lol srs imagine playing the world as like EU4 or Vicky 2 and like, choosing this course of action hahahahah

I'm sure it would be the first step in an easter-egg event chain to, I don't know, get King Arthur to return or something.

Moridin920
Nov 15, 2007

by FactsAreUseless

Baloogan posted:

lol srs imagine playing the world as like EU4 or Vicky 2 and like, choosing this course of action hahahahah

For a while now I have legit thought that you could more or less pick Paradox forums posters at random and come up with a better set of world leaders.

XMNN
Apr 26, 2008
I am incredibly stupid
don't pick me if you don't like genocide

Fans
Jun 27, 2013

A reptile dysfunction

hakimashou posted:

What if they refuse to pass her deal and then there’s a no-deal brexit instead though?

We don't know because they didn't poll that.

SMILLENNIALSMILLEN
Jun 26, 2009



JFairfax posted:

yeah it's called voting down Tmay's deal and getting an amendment passed which signifies parliament will not tolerate no deal.

But still brexit? Theres leaving the EU with no negotiations (no deal brexit), securing some sort of trade thing before leaving the EU and not leaving the EU at all (no brexit). When people ask if c9rbyn is antibrexit you keep saying he's against no deal brexit

Dance Officer
May 4, 2017

It would be awesome if we could dance!
It's looking like labour is shaping up to vote against the deal, and if the deal doesn't pass, then it defaults to no deal Brexit.

Right now it's looking like no deal brexit is what will happen.

Kurtofan
Feb 16, 2011

hon hon hon
No deal, no wheels

namesake
Jun 19, 2006

"When I was a girl, around 12 or 13, I had a fantasy that I'd grow up to marry Captain Scarlet, but he'd be busy fighting the Mysterons so I'd cuckold him with the sexiest people I could think of - Nigel Mansell, Pat Sharp and Mr. Blobby."

Revoke Article 50 ?

No , Brexit now !

Avirosb
Nov 21, 2016

Everyone makes pisstakes

Obliterati
Nov 13, 2012

Pain is inevitable.
Suffering is optional.
Thunderdome is forever.
The amendment business is brinksmanship but I don't know if it's a cunning circumvention of parliamentary sovereignty or the reason rickets makes a comeback

Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012

c l o u d k i t t e n
Grimey Drawer

hakimashou posted:

It looks like Corbyn is courting electoral catastrophe if he backs the brexit

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/05/brexit-corbyn-electoral-catastrophe-yougov-poll

Article is written around a dumb yougov poll. Let’s ignore that. Ok yes it will be bad for Corbyn if he doesn’t resist Brexit. I agree. But this article doesn’t seem to give a gently caress that the whole reason this is such a mess is that plenty of Labour voters voted leave.

If Corbyn had supported remaining when all these dickheads wanted him to it would have been disasterous. It would have united the Tories and the press could have ran day to day ‘traitor Corbyn’ front pages. Instead they had to make up some anti-semitism stuff.

MikeCrotch
Nov 5, 2011

I AM UNJUSTIFIABLY PROUD OF MY SPAGHETTI BOLOGNESE RECIPE

YES, IT IS AN INCREDIBLY SIMPLE DISH

NO, IT IS NOT NORMAL TO USE A PEPPERAMI INSTEAD OF MINCED MEAT

YES, THERE IS TOO MUCH SALT IN MY RECIPE

NO, I WON'T STOP SHARING IT

more like BOLLOCKnese

Dance Officer posted:

It's looking like labour is shaping up to vote against the deal, and if the deal doesn't pass, then it defaults to no deal Brexit.

Right now it's looking like no deal brexit is what will happen.

No deal Brexit only happens if the government wants it to. They could withdraw article 50 notification at any time (though it would have to go through a parliamentary vote, thanks Gina Miller), the fact that they don't want to do this pins it all on them.

Captain No-mates
Apr 3, 2010

MikeCrotch posted:

No deal Brexit only happens if the government wants it to. They could withdraw article 50 notification at any time (though it would have to go through a parliamentary vote, thanks Gina Miller), the fact that they don't want to do this pins it all on them.

Reality doesn't matter, the media narrative would blame Corbyn.

it dont matter
Aug 29, 2008

Another amendment incoming, this one to force the gov to come back with another deal within 3 days of defeat so Tezza can't run down the clock

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/09/brexit-pm-may-be-forced-to-come-up-with-new-deal-three-days-after-commons-defeat

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

XMNN
Apr 26, 2008
I am incredibly stupid

SMILLENNIALSMILLEN posted:

But still brexit? Theres leaving the EU with no negotiations (no deal brexit), securing some sort of trade thing before leaving the EU and not leaving the EU at all (no brexit). When people ask if c9rbyn is antibrexit you keep saying he's against no deal brexit

it's a bit of a tricky situation if you're the leader of a major political party and you're on the losing side of a referendum, you can't really just go "nah I don't think so" (cf May who was nominally pro remain)

supporting Schroedinger's Brexit is about the best possible position in that case, esp when you've got a massively pro remain party membership


Captain No-mates posted:

Reality doesn't matter, the media narrative would blame Corbyn.

she will literally have to face down labour, SNP and Tory rebel attempts to stop no deal in order to get no deal, I think that might genuinely be enough to shape the narrative.

having said that, I wouldn't be surprised if pro Brexit outlets at least try to frame it as "labour torpedoed the deal so now unfortunately we have to no deal" although some of them have been sympathetic to that clean break horseshit so that might not work so well

Dance Officer posted:

It's looking like labour is shaping up to vote against the deal, and if the deal doesn't pass, then it defaults to no deal Brexit.

Right now it's looking like no deal brexit is what will happen.

it does default to no deal, but there are ways of avoiding no deal (for example grieve's previous amendment and he's tabling another to the business motion) and people in parliament who will try to use them even if may doesn't. she may well have to fight tooth and nail to force it through, and she will certainly be vocally opposed by labour

its one thing to throw up your hands and scream "Jesus take the wheel" as you drive the Brexit bus off the side of a cliff, it's quite another to actively steer towards it whilst fighting off all comers trying to stop you

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply