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Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

This is how politics actually works. Everyone needs to wise up to it.

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Paradoxish
Dec 19, 2003

Will you stop going crazy in there?

Pander posted:

The day my mom stops working is the day she dies. She HAS to be doing something, cannot abide sitting still until like 5pm, so she's 66 and works part-time by choice rather than need. She could win the lottery and still need to do something like that or else she'd suffer a stroke or something.

I don't mind folks choosing to work, even if it's not what most people would want to do. It is pretty disgusting how stories like this are framed as capitalism success stories ("If you don't have a desire to work as a prole like ole Gart here, you're a leech!")

Definitely. A lot of this is just that the labor market such as it is is a fundamentally broken and unhealthy thing.

Lycus
Aug 5, 2008

Half the posters in this forum have been made up. This website is a goddamn ghost town.
Haha, President Deals slammed the table.

Sub Par
Jul 18, 2001


Dinosaur Gum
I know the answer is "because they're all duplicitous fucks doing stuff in bad faith" but I mean why the hell wouldn't you record poo poo like this. It'll only work once but I mean, it only has to work once.

Heck Yes! Loam!
Nov 15, 2004

a rich, friable soil containing a relatively equal mixture of sand and silt and a somewhat smaller proportion of clay.

FizFashizzle posted:

I would absolutely have had an iphone on record in my front pocket if i'd been in that room.

recording devices in the situation room are sort of frowned upon, and likely would likely end up with you in custody of the secret Service or FBI.

CuddleCryptid
Jan 11, 2013

Things could be going better


Not to be a wet blanket, but this seems too Made For TV to be accurate, even for this reality TV admin

Crabtree
Oct 17, 2012

ARRRGH! Get that wallet out!
Everybody: Lowtax in a Pickle!
Pickle! Pickle! Pickle! Pickle!

Dinosaur Gum

Retro42 posted:

Mitch is literally the most powerful Republican in DC right now. If he makes ANY move on this it’ll change the whole debate.

It could also explode a bit on his face if Trump turns his ire specifically on him. That's when it'd probably show a real Rightwing fracture when the king maker becomes even a momentary enemy of the chud.

Of course, Trump's too much of a wimp to ever go after someone that would probably gently caress him hard in a heart beat with a light threat of writing an impeachment letter.

Mr Ice Cream Glove
Apr 22, 2007

He is so doing a state of emergency after that

gently caress

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound

skeleton warrior posted:

So, I think there are only a few possible ends to the shutdown situation.

There's no way in hell that Trump backs down. As much of a mushbrain as he is, he knows full well that if he backs off and lets Congress refuse his wall, he's an immediate lame duck President who certainly won't get re-elected, and maybe won't get re-nominated. He'll be H.W. Bush II, with "build the wall" replacing "no new taxes". It doesn't matter that he's losing the PR battle or that the government shutdown might hurt DHS considerably; he's still tops with his MAGA base, and that's all he cares about, all he has ever cared about, and believes that they're all he needs to keep winning. And his MAGA base would be happy to see DHS completely fall apart and terrorists burn down the country if they could say "Democrats did this."

It's possible that Pelosi backs down, but she and House Democrats are in the same bind from the opposite perspective - they're winning the PR war, all of this makes Trump and the GOP look irresponsible, and it'll deliver big for them in 2020 and conversely backing down will completely destroy the support that gave them the 2018 wave. Unless the government starts obviously falling apart and the polls go against Democrats, I think she holds.

So then it's all on Schumer and McConnell. And I have no trust that Schumer will keep Senate business obstructed, but I don't know that McConnell doesn't pass a clean CR bill once it becomes obvious that the shutdown is actually hurting Republican's general election chances in 2020.

yeah, that's why I said above that it won't end until there's an actual concrete disaster that McConnell can't shy away from.

Crow Jane
Oct 18, 2012

nothin' wrong with a lady drinkin' alone in her room

CuddleCryptid posted:

Not to be a wet blanket, but this seems too Made For TV to be accurate, even for this reality TV admin

What is Donald J. Trump if not a festering orange pile of cliches?

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

skeleton warrior posted:

So, I think there are only a few possible ends to the shutdown situation.

There's no way in hell that Trump backs down. As much of a mushbrain as he is, he knows full well that if he backs off and lets Congress refuse his wall, he's an immediate lame duck President who certainly won't get re-elected, and maybe won't get re-nominated. He'll be H.W. Bush II, with "build the wall" replacing "no new taxes". It doesn't matter that he's losing the PR battle or that the government shutdown might hurt DHS considerably; he's still tops with his MAGA base, and that's all he cares about, all he has ever cared about, and believes that they're all he needs to keep winning. And his MAGA base would be happy to see DHS completely fall apart and terrorists burn down the country if they could say "Democrats did this."

It's possible that Pelosi backs down, but she and House Democrats are in the same bind from the opposite perspective - they're winning the PR war, all of this makes Trump and the GOP look irresponsible, and it'll deliver big for them in 2020 and conversely backing down will completely destroy the support that gave them the 2018 wave. Unless the government starts obviously falling apart and the polls go against Democrats, I think she holds.

So then it's all on Schumer and McConnell. And I have no trust that Schumer will keep Senate business obstructed, but I don't know that McConnell doesn't pass a clean CR bill once it becomes obvious that the shutdown is actually hurting Republican's general election chances in 2020.

yeah, i feel like as long as the dems don't make any demands and just say "we are cool with the bill but no wall" they will keep there support up. i think GOP will crack soon, DHS is pissed and TSA is having massive walkouts. i think realizes trump is hosed either way in 2020 but he is trying to figure out how hosed the senate is.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:

He is so doing a state of emergency after that

gently caress

Good. Not only will he not be successful (it'll mean taking money out of the bloated military budget and probably get slapped down in court anyway), he'll look even more like a petulant toddler.

Dapper_Swindler posted:

yeah, i feel like as long as the dems don't make any demands and just say "we are cool with the bill but no wall" they will keep there support up. i think GOP will crack soon, DHS is pissed and TSA is having massive walkouts. i think realizes trump is hosed either way in 2020 but he is trying to figure out how hosed the senate is.

This is why I think it's so easy for Democrats to hold the line. They have no demands or stipulations--they just want the gears to start turning again.

my bony fealty
Oct 1, 2008

CuddleCryptid posted:

Not to be a wet blanket, but this seems too Made For TV to be accurate, even for this reality TV admin

it's a paraphrase

Fitzy Fitz
May 14, 2005




Hieronymous Alloy posted:

yeah, that's why I said above that it won't end until there's an actual concrete disaster that McConnell can't shy away from.

It's interesting that McConnell is maybe the most likely one to cave in all of this.

Pylons
Mar 16, 2009

White House issues veto threat on standalone spending bills to reopen parts of federal government


Well, so much for that

Nelson Mandingo
Mar 27, 2005




Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:

He is so doing a state of emergency after that

gently caress

Honestly this is his only way out and looking like He Fights and Owns the Libs.

It'll immediately be court challenged, and shot down. He'll bemoan it on twitter and do nothing about it. His base continues to be loving idiots.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Fritz Coldcockin posted:

Good. Not only will he not be successful (it'll mean taking money out of the bloated military budget and probably get slapped down in court anyway), he'll look even more like a petulant toddler.


This is why I think it's so easy for Democrats to hold the line. They have no demands or stipulations--they just want the gears to start turning again.

and the GOP are doing a horrible loving job at trying to flip the narrative, partially because the main instigator changes his story every 5 minutes.

WoodrowSkillson
Feb 24, 2005

*Gestures at 60 years of Lions history*

Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:

He is so doing a state of emergency after that

gently caress

in many ways this is probably the best case solution long term. 5 billion is loving nothing compared to the walls actual cost and not much will actually happen towards it construction at all given this admin's incompetence. a CR without it will then be passed as there is nothing stopping it beyond Trump being even more irrational. Trump ends the stalemate by doing something completely ineffective that shows the dems to be the more resolute party and harms them 0 going into 2020.

Lycus
Aug 5, 2008

Half the posters in this forum have been made up. This website is a goddamn ghost town.
If Trump declares a state of emergency, he has no reason to be against a clean CR, right? Trump declares a state of emergency, signs a clean CR, then is told he can't use emergency declaration to build Wall.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

thats not surprising. its good for us though. it makes them look awful.

Old Kentucky Shark
May 25, 2012

If you think you're gonna get sympathy from the shark, well then, you won't.


Solaris 2.0 posted:

I tried not to pay too much attention to 538's Trump popularity graph because it has stayed shockingly consistent for a year now. But it is on a clear downward trend in approval since the Trump Shutdown began.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Even Rasmussen has his approval below 50%

Yeah, it's definitely a thing. For the first week or so of the shutdown, his disapproval rating was going up but his approval rating wasn't going down, meaning it was essentially only perpetually undecided voters who were having a negative reaction to the shutdown. But the longer it went on, his approval rating started dipping too, which means he's losing actual Republican voters.
For all the talk of the die-hard MAGACUDs, Trump's approval rating among conservatives is surprisingly soft.



Look at the difference between "Somewhat" and "Strongly Approve", and compare it to the difference between "Somewhat" and "Strongly Disapprove." A lot of the people who support Trump do it reflexively and half-heartedly because he's a Republican, but people who don't like Trump literally all just loving hate him.

That's not to say that the "Somewhat Approve" people are going to come to their senses or become non-racists, but what it does mean is that if Trump's base ever fractures, it's going to break hard.

EDIT: fixed img tags

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Lycus posted:

If Trump declares a state of emergency, he has no reason to be against a clean CR, right? Trump declares a state of emergency, signs a clean CR, then is told he can't use emergency declaration to build Wall.

i think he might declare one, then still keep the government closes because "gently caress you give me wall money".

Heck Yes! Loam!
Nov 15, 2004

a rich, friable soil containing a relatively equal mixture of sand and silt and a somewhat smaller proportion of clay.

That was always the case. It would require a veto proof majority to pass and go into effect. That means we need like 18 republicans to break ranks in the Senate and I am not sure how many in the House. ? Doesn't seem likely.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.


They were always going to meet an impasse, probably even before it got to Trump and when it gets to Mitch McConnell in the Senate.

The point is that as long as Democrats are willing to vote to open up and fund the government and can illustrate that the GOP has to be the one to say "no, we're keeping the government shutdown."

Mr Ice Cream Glove
Apr 22, 2007

Remember that legislation saying Lynching is a crime?

It is being lobbied against by Liberty Counsel


https://mobile.twitter.com/JoeMyGod/status/1083108277108465664


quote:

The Justice for Victims of Lynching Act passed unanimously in the U.S. Senate but Liberty Counsel founder Mat Staver says it passed without some senators realizing an amendment was added providing special rights for homosexuals and transgenders.

He calls that amendment the proverbial camel’s nose under the tent.

“The old saying is once that camel gets the nose in the tent, you can’t stop them from coming the rest of the way in,” he explains. “And this would be the first time that you would have in federal law mentioning gender identity and sexual orientation as part of this anti-lynching bill.”

Crabtree
Oct 17, 2012

ARRRGH! Get that wallet out!
Everybody: Lowtax in a Pickle!
Pickle! Pickle! Pickle! Pickle!

Dinosaur Gum

Its not much of a threat when this isn't an attack that is just do nothing. Yeah, I know, pocket veto, but Trump wouldn't be able to ignore it if the rest of right congress wants it.

Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

Zwabu posted:

What justification could there possibly be for journalists to attend an off the record lunch with the President they are covering? The whole thing is obviously to curry favor and try to generate more positive coverage in a lovely time for Trump.

Shouldn't all the journalists have declined the invitation on principle, or only accepted if everything were on the record?

Speaking of which, some people clearly were spilling the beans anyway otherwise we wouldn't have any reports of what Trump said there.

It's been pretty common since at least Obama's presidency. During the Obama years, I remember the NYT taking a stand against them--at least initially--and refusing to attend, but I don't remember any other media doing the same on principle. (I also don't know if the NYT ultimately changed its policy.)

Obama took OTR-with-press meetings a step further, and forbade the outlets to discuss even the occurrence of the meetings.

And yeah, poo poo's gonna leak from the Trump meetings; journos who attended the meetings under Obama were incredibly tight-lipped about what went on, but that may have been bc the secret meetings were almost always with journos or outlets generally favorable toward him.

I think my personal line of integrity, were I a member of the press, would be that the president's remarks should be reportable under background rules (no direct quotes, but ok to summarize what he said) and under no circumstances agree that there's no record of the meeting having occurred, as was the case with Obama.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

WoodrowSkillson posted:

in many ways this is probably the best case solution long term. 5 billion is loving nothing compared to the walls actual cost and not much will actually happen towards it construction at all given this admin's incompetence. a CR without it will then be passed as there is nothing stopping it beyond Trump being even more irrational. Trump ends the stalemate by doing something completely ineffective that shows the dems to be the more resolute party and harms them 0 going into 2020.

Anything that does get built will be very flamboyantly destroyed by the next Democratic President. I wouldn't be a bit surprised if there was a photo-op wherein the new President takes a couple of whacks with a sledgehammer or wrecking ball.

Lycus
Aug 5, 2008

Half the posters in this forum have been made up. This website is a goddamn ghost town.

Solaris 2.0 posted:

I tried not to pay too much attention to 538's Trump popularity graph because it has stayed shockingly consistent for a year now. But it is on a clear downward trend in approval since the Trump Shutdown began.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Even Rasmussen has his approval below 50%

Eh, that's pretty minor until it gets back to 2017 levels.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!
Aww Poor Dear Leader had his fee fee's hurt so he took his toys and went home.

CuddleCryptid
Jan 11, 2013

Things could be going better


RIP the USA

Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:

Remember that legislation saying Lynching is a crime?

It is being lobbied against by Liberty Counsel


https://mobile.twitter.com/JoeMyGod/status/1083108277108465664

Oh great, so we are going for the "trans people aren't real so it's cool to hang them" defense

CuddleCryptid fucked around with this message at 22:42 on Jan 9, 2019

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:

Remember that legislation saying Lynching is a crime?

It is being lobbied against by Liberty Counsel


https://mobile.twitter.com/JoeMyGod/status/1083108277108465664

they are just mad they wont be able to murder/honor kill their LGBT children when they come out and the torture doesn't work.

Mr Ice Cream Glove
Apr 22, 2007

https://mobile.twitter.com/LissandraVilla/status/1083114059736797201

Schlitzkrieg Bop
Sep 19, 2005

Fritz Coldcockin posted:

Anything that does get built will be very flamboyantly destroyed by the next Democratic President. I wouldn't be a bit surprised if there was a photo-op wherein the new President takes a couple of whacks with a sledgehammer or wrecking ball.

You're probably right, but part of me dreams about a small, pitiful part of the wall being built and then totally abandoned by the next President. Let it stand as a monument to Trump's idiocy, and say it isn't even worth the money it would cost to tear it down.

the moose
Nov 7, 2009

Type: Electric Swing
So what happens if no one backs down and the shut down continues indefinitely? Like 6 months of no government?

Pylons
Mar 16, 2009

the moose posted:

So what happens if no one backs down and the shut down continues indefinitely? Like 6 months of no government?

I'd wager the absolute longest it goes is past April. The economy will crash if people don't get their tax refunds.

Adar
Jul 27, 2001

the moose posted:

So what happens if no one backs down and the shut down continues indefinitely? Like 6 months of no government?

due to no Homeland Security or air traffic controllers still on the job, air traffic shuts down a lot faster than that

Lycus
Aug 5, 2008

Half the posters in this forum have been made up. This website is a goddamn ghost town.

the moose posted:

So what happens if no one backs down and the shut down continues indefinitely? Like 6 months of no government?

There's got to be a limit to Congressional Republicans not doing a veto override.

WoodrowSkillson
Feb 24, 2005

*Gestures at 60 years of Lions history*

the moose posted:

So what happens if no one backs down and the shut down continues indefinitely? Like 6 months of no government?

riots that force congress' hand when actual real consequences become significant. it won;t go that far, since you can see trump and his team taking the pressure poorly already. The missed paychecks are the first big consequence, and soon others will pile on like tax returns and air traffic controllers like mentioned above

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Kunabomber
Oct 1, 2002


Pillbug
Morons that keep asking what good government does in their lives realize real quick just how much their lives are enabled by a collective organization designed for service rather than profit.

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