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Harold Stassen
Jan 24, 2016
The kids go nuts for these glider trucks!

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StabbinHobo
Oct 18, 2002

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Wakko posted:

"“The big takeaway for me is that we haven’t yet successfully decoupled U.S. emissions growth from economic growth,” said Trevor Houser, a climate and energy analyst at the Rhodium Group."
other than a bunch of hand waiving over some marginal rates in graphs and anecdotes about france I have never even seen someone really try to argue they are decoupled, let alone put together a convincing argument.

its like, everyone wants to hope and believe that we don't have to tackle them as one, but no one even tries to make a coherent case for it being true.

Epitope
Nov 27, 2006

Grimey Drawer
So trade war induced economic slowdown is the best thing going right now. Maybe Trump is the true environmentalist?

Paradoxish
Dec 19, 2003

Will you stop going crazy in there?

StabbinHobo posted:

other than a bunch of hand waiving over some marginal rates in graphs and anecdotes about france I have never even seen someone really try to argue they are decoupled, let alone put together a convincing argument.

its like, everyone wants to hope and believe that we don't have to tackle them as one, but no one even tries to make a coherent case for it being true.

It's always been absurd because there's no reasonable mechanism for how economic growth and carbon emissions could have possibly become decoupled for the US between 2008 and now. Renewables are getting cheaper, but the majority of US energy is still being produced by fossil fuel plants. Renewables have caught up to natural gas for new capacity, but close to 50% of new capacity is still non-renewable. Cars are getting more efficient, but we're still buying 'em and we're still buying more of them. An economy that's running well still means shipping stuff across the country in gas burning trucks. Low gas prices still mean people buying bigger, less efficient cars and driving them more often.

Nothing has actually changed, so the idea that somehow economic growth can be decoupled from emissions growth makes no sense under any kind of scrutiny. At best, you can make the case that the rate of emissions growth relative to economic growth is slowing, but that's it.

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum

Epitope posted:

So trade war induced economic slowdown is the best thing going right now. Maybe Trump is the true environmentalist?

:laffo:

China to introduce policies to strengthen domestic consumption - state media



Trainee PornStar
Jul 20, 2006

I'm just an inbetweener

If we actually had our collective poo poo together I think we'd scrape through climate change.
As things currently stand.. We're hosed!! lol

Please tell me I'm wrong.

Notorious R.I.M.
Jan 27, 2004

up to my ass in alligators

Trainee PornStar posted:

If we actually had our collective poo poo together I think we'd scrape through climate change.
As things currently stand.. We're hosed!! lol

Please tell me I'm wrong.

You're wrong. Having our poo poo together still won't let us build a time machine.

Flowers For Algeria
Dec 3, 2005

I humbly offer my services as forum inquisitor. There is absolutely no way I would abuse this power in any way.


I think I would prefer Granpa Xi’s yoke over my head to Trump’s diseased late stage capitalism

At least their dramas on tv are refreshing

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

Trainee PornStar posted:

If we actually had our collective poo poo together I think we'd scrape through climate change.
As things currently stand.. We're hosed!! lol

Please tell me I'm wrong.

lmao welcome to the thread and the world

Remember, though, don't wallow in the hopelessness and futility of this impending self-wrought global calamity that will end modern civilization as we know it and simultaneously render all the verdant natural splendor of the world into a searing lifeless wasteland for no justifiable reason except that we could not control our own excess.

Instead, go for a walk or something. Maybe pet a cat.

You could also, I dunno, anxiety bake?

sitchensis fucked around with this message at 00:49 on Jan 9, 2019

Epitope
Nov 27, 2006

Grimey Drawer

Ah yes, industry will surely prevail handsomely against all challenges, and reach maximum velocity before crashing into the Climate Wall. The glorious explosion will cleanse away all, with it's holy inferno.

Sorry man, climate change will not wash away your or anyone else's sins. Your legacy will linger on, the plastic you discard, the co2 you exhale. This period of prosperity will surely end, and suffering will probably increase, but the earth will not simply shake off evil. The bad guys (capitalism etc.) might even survive longer than all the cute fuzzies :(

Paradoxish
Dec 19, 2003

Will you stop going crazy in there?

sitchensis posted:

Instead, go for a walk or something. Maybe pet a cat.

Don't fly to the cat, though.

Sundae
Dec 1, 2005

Paradoxish posted:

Don't fly to the cat, though.

Of course not. Fly the cat to you; it weighs less.

Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day

Notorious R.I.M. posted:

You're wrong. Having our poo poo together still won't let us build a time machine.

:same:

Admiral Ray
May 17, 2014

Proud Musk and Dogecoin fanboy

Wakko posted:

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1082640941335408641

"“The big takeaway for me is that we haven’t yet successfully decoupled U.S. emissions growth from economic growth,” said Trevor Houser, a climate and energy analyst at the Rhodium Group."

How can you? Increased energy production is an explicit necessity for economic growth and always has been, and our energy is still primarily fossil fueled.

Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day
Services and tech, aka "export our production emissions to other countries".

Paradoxish
Dec 19, 2003

Will you stop going crazy in there?

Sundae posted:

Of course not. Fly the cat to you; it weighs less.

These are the kinds of real, out of the box solutions that we need.

AceOfFlames
Oct 9, 2012

sitchensis posted:

Instead, go for a walk or something. Maybe pet a cat.

You could also, I dunno know, anxiety bake?

I walk 30 minutes every day, don’t care about animals and my apartment is too small to have an oven.

Would love to hear more suggestions.

Harold Stassen
Jan 24, 2016
If you don't care about animals then it should be much easier for you overall

ruby saltbush
Jan 8, 2019

by R. Guyovich

AceOfFlames posted:

I walk 30 minutes every day, don’t care about animals and my apartment is too small to have an oven.

Would love to hear more suggestions.
what do you care about? legitimate question. don't say nothing

AceOfFlames
Oct 9, 2012

ruby saltbush posted:

what do you care about? legitimate question. don't say nothing

I care about gadgets, my pc, reading, interesting discussion, current events, dressing well, card magic (though excessive sweaty hands have put a stop to that). Thinking of trying yoga.

What I used to care about most of all was technological progress until these last few years have proved that not only have we hit a plateau but instead of saving us, it will only doom us all. There is a part of me that wishes it could.

Harold Stassen
Jan 24, 2016
just lol if you don't believe in planned obsolescence/suppressed technology

Paradoxish
Dec 19, 2003

Will you stop going crazy in there?
Look on the bright side: you'll probably get to keep pretty much all of that poo poo. Cheap consumer gadgets aren't going anywhere, except in the sense that we'll all probably be marginally poorer and won't be able to buy as many of them as basic necessities become more expensive.

You really need to stop worrying about some crazy mad max future. It's probably not going to happen, and if it does then odds are you'll die pretty fast anyway. The bad future for rich westerners is just being poor.

ruby saltbush
Jan 8, 2019

by R. Guyovich

quote:

What I used to care about most of all was technological progress until these last few years have proved that not only have we hit a plateau but instead of saving us, it will only doom us all. There is a part of me that wishes it could.
what do you think of solar power? a lot of people i know are going into solar engineering at the moment and honestly i think it has potential just because the cells are just so easy to put on things - buildings, paddocks, post-mining moonscapes etc - and the efficiency we've achieved with it so far is pretty great. there are still the issues of raw materials, where to get them, how to dispose of them, the eternal tyranny of nightfall and so on. but that's still a lot of coal that now will not be burnt. plus solar power is decentralised, so even if society collapses you probably will be able to have an air-conditioned underground bunker somewhere in the mountains where you live with your hoard of pre-fall electronics, becoming a figure of legend among the few simple forest folk who make it through the scouring of the surface alive

Epitope
Nov 27, 2006

Grimey Drawer




Hey man, can you please stop making this thread about you? It's not very nice to everyone else. Thanks.

ruby saltbush
Jan 8, 2019

by R. Guyovich

Epitope posted:

Hey man, can you please stop making this thread about you? It's not very nice to everyone else. Thanks.
i mentioned to my mother i was counselling a terminally depressed danish (?) man on the internet and she said "oh no it's the middle of their winter over there" and it filled me with a sense of compassion, then i realised it was actually very insensitive to go on about solar engineering to a goon stricken by seasonal affective disorder. anyway i find aof's steady despair kind of entertaining, especially knowing that if he doesn't commit suicide, and i do hope he doesn't, he actually has the best long-term irl prospects of any of us itt

Admiral Ray
May 17, 2014

Proud Musk and Dogecoin fanboy

Paradoxish posted:

Look on the bright side: you'll probably get to keep pretty much all of that poo poo. Cheap consumer gadgets aren't going anywhere, except in the sense that we'll all probably be marginally poorer and won't be able to buy as many of them as basic necessities become more expensive.

You really need to stop worrying about some crazy mad max future. It's probably not going to happen, and if it does then odds are you'll die pretty fast anyway. The bad future for rich westerners is just being poor.

There ain't gonna be a Mad Max future because the Mormons will inherit America and our nukes. They've been preparing for societal collapse for 200 years.

ruby saltbush
Jan 8, 2019

by R. Guyovich
sharply-dressed scandinavian card magician who can't perform card tricks anymore due to sweaty palms from his intractable anxiety over the climate apocalypse

AceOfFlames
Oct 9, 2012

Epitope posted:

Hey man, can you please stop making this thread about you? It's not very nice to everyone else. Thanks.

Fine, sorry. Let me just point out that I’m not Danish, I am a Portuguese living in the Netherlands.

ruby saltbush
Jan 8, 2019

by R. Guyovich

AceOfFlames posted:

Fine, sorry. Let me just point out that I’m not Danish, I am a Portuguese living in the Netherlands.
oh poo poo sorry, i must have mixed you up with someone

GoGoGadgetChris
Mar 18, 2010

i powder a
granite monument
in a soundless flash

showering the grass
with molten drops of
its gold inlay

sending smoking
chips of stone
skipping into the fog
Post some of your fits, bruh

Paradoxish
Dec 19, 2003

Will you stop going crazy in there?
This Ars Technica article is basically just another take on that NYT article posted on the last page, but:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/01/natural-gas-is-now-getting-in-the-way-us-carbon-emissions-increase-by-3-4/

quote:

This reversal of course—the first increase in emissions in three years—came from a few sources. Carbon emissions from the US electricity sector increased by 1.9 percent, largely because the installation of new natural gas plants has outpaced coal retirements. Cheap natural gas has been credited with killing coal, which is a dirtier fossil fuel in terms of emissions. But natural gas is a fossil fuel, too, and burning more natural gas than is needed to simply replace coal will result in more carbon emissions.

That specifically is worth pointing out, because it's something that's been discussed in this thread for the past couple of years. Natural gas is the enemy. It's probably more of an enemy than coal, because coal is already dying thanks to market forces (such as cheap natural gas!). It's also worth looking at specifically because it highlights the problem with drawing down capacity in one fossil fuel and replacing it with another, slightly less bad one. There's just no way we can get even close to the targets we need to meet by doing this, and the new capacity that resulted in 2018's increase won't be going away for decades.

There's just so much to unpack here, including a super obvious and visible demonstration of why market solutions are useless.

VideoGameVet
May 14, 2005

It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

Paradoxish posted:

This Ars Technica article is basically just another take on that NYT article posted on the last page, but:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/01/natural-gas-is-now-getting-in-the-way-us-carbon-emissions-increase-by-3-4/


That specifically is worth pointing out, because it's something that's been discussed in this thread for the past couple of years. Natural gas is the enemy. It's probably more of an enemy than coal, because coal is already dying thanks to market forces (such as cheap natural gas!). It's also worth looking at specifically because it highlights the problem with drawing down capacity in one fossil fuel and replacing it with another, slightly less bad one. There's just no way we can get even close to the targets we need to meet by doing this, and the new capacity that resulted in 2018's increase won't be going away for decades.

There's just so much to unpack here, including a super obvious and visible demonstration of why market solutions are useless.

It's also unclear how much methane is being leaked at fracking sites. It may make natural gas as bad as or worse than coal.

DrSunshine
Mar 23, 2009

Did I just say that out loud~~?!!!
I want to start volunteering for some political organizations to put pressure on the government to get the Green New Deal going. Which organization would you guys recommend? Should I start going to meetings of the local chapter of the DSA? It seems like not enough people in Congress are talking about climate change in terms of the global catastrophic risk that it is -- or the existential risk that it possibly could be. I also look at Alexandria Ocasio Cortez and think, like, hey she's about a year and a half younger than me, maybe two years, and she made it -- maybe I could too! I feel inspired, and motivated by a deep, quiet sense of resolution. We only have 12 years to get this right. I'd like to participate in some kind of national campaign to fix this, but I have no idea where to even start.

Harold Stassen
Jan 24, 2016
It starts with awareness- most people aren’t aware there’s a problem, and it’s the biggest hurdle to overcome

StabbinHobo
Oct 18, 2002

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
its 2019 now so you have to start saying "11 years"

Sogol
Apr 11, 2013

Galileo's Finger

DrSunshine posted:

I want to start volunteering for some political organizations to put pressure on the government to get the Green New Deal going. Which organization would you guys recommend? Should I start going to meetings of the local chapter of the DSA? It seems like not enough people in Congress are talking about climate change in terms of the global catastrophic risk that it is -- or the existential risk that it possibly could be. I also look at Alexandria Ocasio Cortez and think, like, hey she's about a year and a half younger than me, maybe two years, and she made it -- maybe I could too! I feel inspired, and motivated by a deep, quiet sense of resolution. We only have 12 years to get this right. I'd like to participate in some kind of national campaign to fix this, but I have no idea where to even start.

People will probably have better ideas and...

Perhaps think about local involvement? You will end up local in any case and local community action will connect you to ways of national advocacy and political involvement. Look for events in your area likely to put you in contact with like minded community.

Depending on where you live, Mayor’s offices in many US cities have been actively involved in mitigation and adaptation efforts for over a decade. Some of them really good and where the best work on climate change has been happening in the US. Found out what is going on with your mayors office and city council, planners, etc.

Do an audit of activity in your area. See if there are any pre-existing energy, water, food, etc. related groups operating in your area. Is there a city farm or community garden where people are growing food? Permaculture groups of any sort? Any movement for community choice energy? How is water managed and is there citizens advocacy group. If there is a local university check there. Work to get local policies passed. Getting a local city level natural bill of rights passed is literally the only means of protecting your community from corporate resource taking in the US.

It does not matter a great deal where you start as these things are typically connected at the level of local community and members will also be involved in national advocacy. What you want is to find or create local, active community.

Also, work on equity issues where you live and in your life as they are intimately connected to climate change. If there are women’s marches go to them. If there is active work on racial justice determine how to appropriately participate in and support that. Advocate for and find ways to support all of this in your school district since this is generational and in great part what we are seeing is a failure of our educational system in the face of consumerism and corporate take overs. Find out who the superintendent and board are. Get involved in those elections.

Take incremental (and therefore sustainable) action to tune your own life and footprint so that it matches your convictions to the best of your ability.

DrSunshine
Mar 23, 2009

Did I just say that out loud~~?!!!
Hmm... well, I live in the San Francisco Bay Area, so there's a big abundance of local thingies to choose from, I guess. The local university would probably be the University of California, Berkeley.

On the energy front, thankfully, my city already switched over to community choice energy a little while ago -- in fact I was on the environmental quality committee that recommended that switchover, so I feel good about that. Our household chose to go 100% renewable once the option became available.

Hm. Thinking about it, one big local issue is density. I think I'll look for a YIMBY group that advocates for affordable housing, because the density issue deals with both affordability of rent, which is a big thing for people in my position, and with the larger issue of reducing emissions.

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum
Ocean Warming Is Accelerating 

40% faster than projected by the IPCC AR5


:thunk:

quote:

In the new analysis, Mr. Hausfather and his colleagues assessed three recent studies that better accounted for the older instrument biases. The results converged at an estimate of ocean warming that was higher than the I.P.C.C. predicted and more in line with the climate models.

From the title, one would think that it's the climate modelers and ocean-temperature scientists who underestimated ocean warming. But no, it's actually the IPCC projections being brought in line, as it were.

The IPCC is full of poo poo? :aaaaa:

Rime fucked around with this message at 01:00 on Jan 11, 2019

Harold Stassen
Jan 24, 2016
optimism could sell more people on making an effort whereas just going welp, its hosed will just accelerate known/intentional negative impacts

"let them roll coal"

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Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum
poo poo, I have climbed 3150' of ladder in 24 hours and just had to re-read that a second time to comprehend my own title. Holy gently caress. :stare:

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