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Pylons
Mar 16, 2009

Deified Data posted:

If I were a chud, seeing Trump deliver the SotU on his own terms when Pelosi denied him the House floor would be a bigger "gently caress yeah" moment than him just doing a normal SotU with no fanfare. In fact I doubt I would be engaged in the latter scenario at all, but now I sure am. I don't know i don't profess to be the chud whisperer, but they're not a complicated people to make assumptions for.

But it's not on his own terms, it's on Pelosi's terms, because if he does it from the oval office, well, she suggested that.

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Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 10, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.
Maybe a thing?

https://twitter.com/benwikler/status/1088129539929186305

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth

OddObserver posted:

Trump admin likely doing the worst possible thing in response to possibility of Venezuela getting the slightest of chance of becoming slightly less broken?

what about this guy makes you think he's gonna make Venezuela less broken

Stereotype
Apr 24, 2010

College Slice

Crain posted:

Someone earlier in the thread pointed out that soft funding and grant funding of science projects are already at the breaking point (I mean, NASA has volunteers keeping ground control active for the ISS for gods sake), but there are more than a few terrestrial areas that are in pretty desperate straights.

The USAP and it's Antarctic bases at Palmer Station, McMurdo Bay, and the South Pole are currently in their summer season and staffed with numerous short and long term projects. The Antarctic summer season ends in February, but it's always an iffy date that depends on just when the polar vortex down there starts to break down. Most of the summer staff and scientists leave near mid February and the only transport off of the continent is via the US Air Force (There are various aviation contractors that handle on continent hopper flights to experiment and remote sites which are, I believe, bulk funded at the start of the season).

The travel to get off continent pretty much all ends up at US Air Force terminals in New Zealand in Christchurch as well, with the exception of Palmer which is much closer to Chile and is handled by the Palmer Research Vessel in addition to supplemental flights as needed.

So there is a very big problem if the Air Force ends up shut down. I don't know when that's supposed to be an issue, and I'm sure they'll operate long enough to get everyone out as needed but you'll still end up with pilots and crew having to operate in extreme conditions thousands of miles from civilization without pay.

But we're not done yet. The US Coast Guard is the actual life blood of Antarctica because they currently operate our ONLY Ice Breaker ship that services Antarctica, The Polar Star. There may be more in service but I know that's the only one that is used there and the Coast Guard has it. If they're already unpaid then going down to break open ice flows to allow transport ships for the winter season is in jeopardy. See 90% of the stuff in Antarctica gets there via ship, which can only happen if the ice flows into McMurdo Bay are opened up via Ice Breaker. On top of that we also remove all of the waste generated in Antarctica the same way. So if the funding for the winter season isn't there then they'll just straight up scrap it. Which means the entire base will probably be abandoned for the winter as there will be no way to stock and staff the continent safely for everyone (less than 500 people across 3 bases) to remain there till next November. Which means a broken base full of trash (thankfully it won't rot due to the temperature) the following season. This happened in 2013 when a shutdown ended up killing the summer season.

There's also no "just do it later" since there is a narrow window to get the needed supplies in before winter fully sets in and the ice is impassable even with the Ice Breaker. Which means a whole winter of the base not being maintained. Which means that the following summer season will probably be spent fixing all the poo poo that gets broken and flooded with snow that wasn't cleared over the winter as needed/possible. Not to mention if the emergency call goes out of "We have to leave now because we can't maintain stuff any longer" that means that numerous remote experiments, millions of dollars worth of equipment, will be fully lost. There are also some major construction and renovation projects underway currently to upgrade the bases and that work could be potentially lost.

I know that there are contingency plans, and there may be a system in place to ensure that the bases down there are maintained, but depending on how bad this goes we may end up losing a major source of scientific research for a couple of years. Not to mention all of the research and experiments lost down there under the snow if they are abandoned in the field.

Still not done though: The USAP handles return flights to the US/Home institute for personnel on a case by case basis. They don't buy the ticket home until you're leaving since people can be there for variable amounts of time. When I went down there I could have left in 2 weeks or 3 months depending on how long the project I was there for ran, and it ended up being 2 months. So there may end up being thousands of people stranded in Chile and New Zealand without return tickets due to lack of funding. They'll also end up being on the hook for their own housing since the way it's normally done is you pay for the accommodation then just get reimbursed by your project (this depends on who you work for but a lot of the people down there are also contractors with very sparse support outside of the USAP bases).

I know it's a niche situation, but Antarctica is vitally important for research and this shutdown is primed to cripple it.

Last time they shut down the government during Obama’s they cancelled the whole season. I know because I was supposed to have gone that year.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

Pylons posted:

A thought occurs: What if he's gotten indications from the Senate that the two-week CR is going to pass and this is his way of getting out in front of it?

It won't and he'd still have to sign it and if he did he just do the normal SOTU.

FilthyImp
Sep 30, 2002

Anime Deviant
Trump could just turn around and hit up the local baseball stadium and sell tickets to the first ever State of MAGA address and his idiots would love it.

Instead he's having a pissfit

The Super-Id
Nov 9, 2005

"You know it's what you really want."


Grimey Drawer

Deified Data posted:

If I were a chud, seeing Trump deliver the SotU on his own terms when Pelosi denied him the House floor would be a bigger "gently caress yeah" moment than him just doing a normal SotU with no fanfare. In fact I doubt I would be engaged in the latter scenario at all, but now I sure am. I don't know i don't profess to be the chud whisperer, but they're not a complicated people to make assumptions for.

Chuds are irrelevant. Their minds are buckets of slime and what effect something has on them is something that never needs to be considered.

Deified Data
Nov 3, 2015


Fun Shoe

Pylons posted:

But it's not on his own terms, it's on Pelosi's terms, because if he does it from the oval office, well, she suggested that.

If I were Trump I would do my address from the border at this point. There's no way the thought hasn't crossed his handlers' minds. "Removing it from the stuffy halls of power to the front line, where the real work is being done", the narrative writes itself.

Bicyclops
Aug 27, 2004

Fart City posted:

I know you can rent out McDonald’s for children’s birthday parties. Just do that for the SOTU.

Mac and Me, the weird racist version!

ChaseSP
Mar 25, 2013



I doubt he's going to hold it in the Senate because it's giving up to Pelosi in his own mind and he can't be showed up by anyone, especially a women of all things.

Hunt11
Jul 24, 2013

Grimey Drawer

Tony Blair can go gently caress himself.

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 10, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

Deified Data posted:

If I were Trump I would do my address from the border at this point. There's no way the thought hasn't crossed his handlers' minds. "Removing it from the stuffy halls of power to the front line, where the real work is being done", the narrative writes itself.

Secret Service won’t let him

Ralepozozaxe
Sep 6, 2010

A Veritable Smorgasbord!

Deified Data posted:

If I were Trump I would do my address from the border at this point. There's no way the thought hasn't crossed his handlers' minds. "Removing it from the stuffy halls of power to the front line, where the real work is being done", the narrative writes itself.

That would require Trump to go somewhere uncomfortable and slightly dangerous.

stillvisions
Oct 15, 2014

I really should have come up with something better before spending five bucks on this.

OAquinas posted:

He could...but Pelosi already invited him to do just that. If he did that he'd appear (in his mind) to be subservient to her wishes.

Remember: in Trump's diseased brain you're either actively winning or actively losing. Compromise is just a fancy term for "you lose I win" and if he's the one giving concessions he's losing; there's no win/win or lesser victory scenario.

Trump arrives on the house floor...

"Sorry Donald, teleprompter broke this afternoon, darndest thing. Here's a paper copy of the speech provided that you've clearly read and practiced before now".

friendbot2000
May 1, 2011

sexpig by night posted:

Davos is cool because it's rare to find an entire city where you could just fire a machine gun into any given building and probably improve the world.

That is pretty much what I was thinking. It is awfully nice for them to all be in one place!

ChaseSP
Mar 25, 2013



Seriously if it weren't for Pelosi telling him to go hold it somewhere else I'd consider him trying to hold it elsewhere to get one over her but now it's blatant that would be giving into her demands. This is gonna be interesting.

Jack2142
Jul 17, 2014

Shitposting in Seattle

He should host the SOTU address in Davos.

Bicyclops
Aug 27, 2004


Who's excited for Lisa loving Murkowski and Susan Rapist Supporter Collins to once again hold the entire nation hostage for a little bit of publicity?

Bubbacub
Apr 17, 2001

Crain posted:

But we're not done yet. The US Coast Guard is the actual life blood of Antarctica because they currently operate our ONLY Ice Breaker ship that services Antarctica, The Polar Star. There may be more in service but I know that's the only one that is used there and the Coast Guard has it. If they're already unpaid then going down to break open ice flows to allow transport ships for the winter season is in jeopardy. See 90% of the stuff in Antarctica gets there via ship, which can only happen if the ice flows into McMurdo Bay are opened up via Ice Breaker. On top of that we also remove all of the waste generated in Antarctica the same way. So if the funding for the winter season isn't there then they'll just straight up scrap it. Which means the entire base will probably be abandoned for the winter as there will be no way to stock and staff the continent safely for everyone (less than 500 people across 3 bases) to remain there till next November. Which means a broken base full of trash (thankfully it won't rot due to the temperature) the following season. This happened in 2013 when a shutdown ended up killing the summer season.

Polar Star is also waaaay beyond its design lifetime and breaks down all the time. There was $750M in the budget to build a new icebreaker, but DHS decided to reallocate it for the wall. :suicide:

Is it legal to contract service from a Russian icebreaker? They have 40 of them.

VH4Ever
Oct 1, 2005

by sebmojo

Deified Data posted:

Why not just let Trump have his state of the union? Every public speech is another opportunity for him to start sundowning in the middle of it and start screaming for his mother. This isn't a rally, it's not like he's going to enjoy it. but he will enjoy doing anything in his power to go behind Pelosi to have his speech. Pelosi seems equally petulant in all this IMO, yes a real and true Both Sides. Trump and co. would be dreading this speech if Pelosi never said he couldn't do it.

You know what? No. You don't give the spoiled brat ice cream when he wouldn't eat his loving peas at dinner. It doesn't matter if you caved right away or caved three hours later. You caved, that's all that will come out of that situation.

Letting the fat orange gently caress go up there and point out the stupid guests he brought which you can be assured will be those people "whose kids were murdered by immigrants" or some poo poo and act like everything's great and going great and will be great? While this much pain is going around from a self inflicted wound, because of him? No. A thousand times no. He doesn't get to act like everything's fine and normal and let cable news anchors act like he's being "presidential" again or some poo poo because you know they will. No. This we cannot allow and I'm completely behind Pelosi in picking this fight over it.

Jack2142
Jul 17, 2014

Shitposting in Seattle

Bubbacub posted:

Worth mentioning that there was $750M in the budget to build a new icebreaker, but DHS decided to reallocate it for the wall. :suicide:

Is it legal to contract service from a Russian icebreaker? They have 40 of them.

We have to let them annex Belarus entirely first.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

Bicyclops posted:

Who's excited for Lisa loving Murkowski and Susan Rapist Supporter Collins to once again hold the entire nation hostage for a little bit of publicity?

It's not going to matter. There's no scenario where those two are the deciding vote anyway and Collins is scared to death because she's up for reelection in 2020 and is probably going to get creamed.

friendbot2000
May 1, 2011

https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1088139739566358530

Ahahahah get hosed you rich parasites

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

This does not make sense when, again, aggregate indicia also indicate improvements. The belief that things are worse is false. It remains false.
edit: removed for erroneous identification

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

Bicyclops posted:

Who's excited for Lisa loving Murkowski and Susan Rapist Supporter Collins to once again hold the entire nation hostage for a little bit of publicity?

The pipe dream where the GOP stands up to Trump and passes a clean CR will require basically all of those Republicans to defect.

Spaced God
Feb 8, 2014

All torment, trouble, wonder and amazement
Inhabits here: some heavenly power guide us
Out of this fearful country!



https://twitter.com/N_Waters89/status/1088138177137778689?s=20
. Just minutes after the US officially supports the shadow president, the ministry of defense in venuzela calls for people to take up their arms again madrudo

Bicyclops
Aug 27, 2004

Once again, we await, with baited breath, to see whether some sociopath from Maine and some sociopath from Alaska were snowed again by Mitch McConnell into thinking it was in their best interest to fall in line.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

We're already on step 2, just two more and we win!

friendbot2000
May 1, 2011

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1088136003439738881

A "Security Action" is in our future. Oh wait, we would have to open the government for that...decisions decisions. A racist war or a racist wall...

Nail Rat
Dec 29, 2000

You maniacs! You blew it up! God damn you! God damn you all to hell!!
I want people to remember this anybody tries to claim Bill Gates is "one of the good" billionaires.

They are all scum who are ruining the world.

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017



Amazing that the CIA was able to help launch a coup in Venuzeula while the government was ostensibly shut down.

Horrible, but amazing.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

VH4Ever posted:

You know what? No. You don't give the spoiled brat ice cream when he wouldn't eat his loving peas at dinner. It doesn't matter if you caved right away or caved three hours later. You caved, that's all that will come out of that situation.

Letting the fat orange gently caress go up there and point out the stupid guests he brought which you can be assured will be those people "whose kids were murdered by immigrants" or some poo poo and act like everything's great and going great and will be great? While this much pain is going around from a self inflicted wound, because of him? No. A thousand times no. He doesn't get to act like everything's fine and normal and let cable news anchors act like he's being "presidential" again or some poo poo because you know they will. No. This we cannot allow and I'm completely behind Pelosi in picking this fight over it.

I mean, if Democrats can successfully frame it this way, I'm all for it as well. I guess I just liked being both politically and morally right for once and I think that this particular fight will result in Democrats losing the former fight.

Bicyclops
Aug 27, 2004

DynamicSloth posted:

The pipe dream where the GOP stands up to Trump and passes a clean CR will require basically all of those Republicans to defect.

All but five, if I'm counting correctly, but at some moment, at the 11th hour, if it's close, there are going to be one or two deciding votes.

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 10, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.
So which side is the Venezuelan military on?

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

friendbot2000 posted:



A "Security Action" is in our future. Oh wait, we would have to open the government for that...

Would they?

friendbot2000
May 1, 2011

Nail Rat posted:

I want people to remember this anybody tries to claim Bill Gates is "one of the good" billionaires.

They are all scum who are ruining the world.

Any time someone utters this I point out this article: https://www.currentaffairs.org/2017/06/its-basically-just-immoral-to-be-rich

It is immoral to be rich. Full Stop.

Mantis42
Jul 26, 2010

Spaced God posted:

https://twitter.com/N_Waters89/status/1088138177137778689?s=20
. Just minutes after the US officially supports the shadow president, the ministry of defense in venuzela calls for people to take up their arms again madrudo

Not a Maduro fan but I hope he beats the pigs.

InsertPotPun
Apr 16, 2018

Pissy Bitch stan
Do we really even need a SOTU from trump? We can all put together a reasonable guess with about 90% accuracy.
"Economy good. Record levels of good thing, record lows of bad things. Best president ever. Media and Democrats bad. trump good. Everyone is unfair to me."

Boom. Done.

trump should be denied permission to do his usual song and dance at every opportunity.

glowing-fish
Feb 18, 2013

Keep grinding,
I hope you level up! :)

DynamicSloth posted:

Trump has never had the slightest problem calling existing barriers part of his wall and Foxnews and Rush Limbaugh aren't going to call him on it either.

If Trump takes this deal he's going to look like a genius and his numbers will shoot back (to their normal 45%).

Just a reminder that according to the best tool we have available, Nate Silver's presidential approval rating tracker, the last time that Donald Trump had an approval rating above 45% was January 25th, 2017. He literally did not make it out of his first week above 45%. The last time he was above 44% was March 14th, 2017. He fell below 43% a little bit after that, and then reached 43.1% in October of 2018. Most of his approval ratings were 37-39% in his first year, and 40-42% in his second year.

This is assuming that we believe Nate Silver, and whether his "poll averaging" methodology works well, and just how much we should distrust Rasmussen.

I think that people in this forum are wondering why Trump has any support at all, which is a really good question, at this point its kind of hard to conjecture what type of hardcore irrationality makes that high-30s percentage of people support him, but we also have to remember that Trump is still historically unpopular. A president who has never had an approval rating above 50% in his term is historically a very odd thing. Even if you look at individual polls, even outlier polls, at favorable times, by conservative leaning pollsters...I don't know the last time one of those even got him over 50%.

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Nonsense
Jan 26, 2007

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

So which side is the Venezuelan military on?

Probably Maduro's.The drug money from Maduro's family being paid to the generals is filtering down some how. If nobody else is doing well in the country the military's doing fine.

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