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i wonder if maduro has just considered bribing trump this is shockingly effective apparently boom next thing you know trump is across the table with maduro shaking hands and saying LOVE chavismo, its a hell of a thing, great! STRONG PEOPLE
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Jan 25, 2019 05:17
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A journalist named Patricia Janiot interviewed Guaido earlier today on Periscope. The most interesting exchange to me was when Janiot asked Guaido if the amnesty law that the opposition is going to pass would extend even to Maduro and his cabinet. Guaido did that thing where he didn't answer the question clearly, but Janiot did an alright job at trying to pin him down. Guaido said that amnesty was on the table "for anyone", and in a roundabout way said that this included Maduro if it meant achieving "a very calm transitional government". I had a bit of a tough time making out the audio since it wasn't the best quality, but here's my translation of that exchange (starts at about the 16:55 mark): quote:Janiot: You're offering soldiers amnesty as a way to open the path to a democratic solution. Are you also offering amnesty to Nicolas Maduro? At around the 19:00 mark, Janiot asks Guaido if amnesty was also on the table "to his cabinet, his main collaborators" which means all the big wigs like Diosdado Cabello, Tarek William Saab, Maikel Moreno, etc. Guaido said: quote:... that amnesty is on the table for anyone who is willing to put themselves on the side of the constitution to restore constitutional order. The National Assembly approved the amnesty law on January 15. It extends to any civilian or military government official who takes an active role in restoring constitutional order in Venezuela.
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Jan 25, 2019 05:26
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Berke Negri posted:i wonder if maduro has just considered bribing trump hard to bribe someone when your US assets are frozen and/or monitored by the deep state 
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Jan 25, 2019 05:26
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GreyjoyBastard posted:hard to bribe someone when your US assets are frozen and/or monitored by the deep state just fly kushner in to negotiate
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Jan 25, 2019 05:33
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real answer might be that Maduro's a goddamn moron in this as in everything else except intra-PSUV maneuvering
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Jan 25, 2019 05:40
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Berke Negri posted:https://twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1088643164230033408
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Jan 25, 2019 06:23
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GreyjoyBastard posted:real answer might be that Maduro's a goddamn moron in this as in everything else except intra-PSUV maneuvering yeah while it's hard to tell exactly how bad Maduro is, "incompetent" is more or less a sure bet
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Jan 25, 2019 06:32
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BrutalistMcDonalds posted:it's almost like this doesn't have much to actually do with venezuela and more to do with trump's flagging poll numbers during a government shutdown My first instinct is to tell you that Venezuela's literally going to poo poo, as in over ten percent of the population has fled the country over the past few years, it has mind-blogging inflation, it's the most dangerous country in the world, etc. However, I do agree that Trump is probably just butting in to score some easy points. The way I see it, for as much as he bluffs about military intervention, that's never going to happen. However, if he can get a dictator to step down in his backyard with some tough posturing, that'll do him good. I personally hate Trump, but the US throwing their weight around, in this case, might be what finally cracks the Maduro dictatorship. Yinlock posted:yeah while it's hard to tell exactly how bad Maduro is, "incompetent" is more or less a sure bet It's not hard at all if you keep up with Venezuelan news and incompetent is putting it mildly. The Maduro government is quite literally content to let people starve, die due to lack of medicine, and get killed just so they can keep their hold on power and continue looting the country. Over 80% of the country is in dire poverty now, around 10% of its citizens (including me and my father, who returned to Chile after emigrating due to another dictatorship) have fled the country, and every year around 20,000 people get murdered in Venezuela. This is not intended as a chastisement on you. I just want the people who visit this thread to have a real scope of the Venezuelan crisis. Venezuela, right now, is the kind of place people who live in countries that even remotely work can't fathom because often, they try to come at it from a perspective of "That sounds bad, but you know, my country has problems too!". At this stage, Venezuela's closer to a failed state than a country. Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 08:26 on Jan 25, 2019 |
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Jan 25, 2019 06:40
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The reactionary US throwing their weight around is not going to be what fixes anything. John Bolton's gonna gently caress poo poo uppppppp
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Jan 25, 2019 06:49
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Labradoodle posted:It's not hard at all if you keep up with Venezuelan news and incompetent is putting it mildly. The Maduro government is quite literally content to let people starve, die due to lack of medicine, and get killed just so they can keep their hold on power and continue looting the country. Over 80% of the country is in dire poverty now, around 10% of its citizens have fled the country, and every year around 20,000 people get murdered in Venezuela. This is pretty much the gist of it. American and European posters think Maduro and his crew are running the country merely subparly, and the nation is split 50/50 across class lines. The reality is the current state of Venezuela is failed state full of starving people, monopoly money, and a wildly unpopular government that has routinely rigged elections against the opposition party which is recognized by even world electoral bodies that have once defended the country. This is what the gist of it is. The context of Venezuela is not the same context of say Thailand.
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Jan 25, 2019 06:55
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Kavros posted:Wait, that's a dead letter law since the 70's. You just ... cited your own argument out of existence? I can't stop giggling about Caps lock disproving his own argument because he didn't know what a dead letter law is. America is full of forgotten laws in every level of government that are unenforced and never repealed, usually because they were forgotten or the judicial system defanged them with rulings
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Jan 25, 2019 07:01
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Pharohman777 posted:I can't stop giggling about Caps lock disproving his own argument because he didn't know what a dead letter law is. The day the CCP penalizes your social credit score for losing online arguments is the day Cap Lock stops posting.
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Jan 25, 2019 07:17
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Barudak posted:The day the CCP penalizes your social credit score for losing online arguments is the day Cap Lock stops posting. I was told in the Chinese thread that the social credit system isn't real.
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Jan 25, 2019 08:06
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punk rebel ecks posted:I was told in the Chinese thread that the social credit system isn't real. Which is funny given the government doesn't try to hide it at all.
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Jan 25, 2019 08:21
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You're all seriously overestimating how much the US cares. Them supporting Juan Guaido costs them nothing, it's just political posturing. I think they're correctly assessing that it's very likely Maduro will be toppled by internal pressure without the need for them to do anything, because the overwhelming majority of Venezuelans want him gone. Also, thank you all for donating, seriously, I can't thank you enough, I love seeing people from both sides of the argument chipping in, it's great to see that we can put our differences aside to contribute to a good cause that will help Venezuelans in need. I'm just going to paste the link again in this page, for those who are just coming into the thread: https://www.caritas.org/donation/venezuela/
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Jan 25, 2019 08:31
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fnox posted:You're all seriously overestimating how much the US cares. Them supporting Juan Guaido costs them nothing, it's just political posturing. I think they're correctly assessing that it's very likely Maduro will be toppled by internal pressure without the need for them to do anything, because the overwhelming majority of Venezuelans want him gone. I'm not sure you're properly recognizing the warning signs. Have you seen how hard Fox is frothing? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XxoegUMM8bo This timestamp is particularly good: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XxoegUMM8bo&t=300s "Don't forget, we've tried this - or - it was tried, with Hugo Chavez, around 2002. Only lasted a couple days." Sing Along fucked around with this message at 09:04 on Jan 25, 2019 |
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Jan 25, 2019 08:57
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Socks4Hands posted:I'm not sure you're properly recognizing the warning signs. Have you seen how hard Fox is frothing? What is Pence saying that is so controversial? Like he's just talking the usual lines, it's the same with everyone else that is commenting on the subject, "we want Maduro to recognize the rule of the law and step down". There's no talk of military action, there's no talk of humanitarian intervention. He's not saying anything I haven't heard him say before. And to answer your previous question, why would I want to engage with a bunch of out-of-touch gringos who are convinced their problems are comparable to mine and that they have a right to call me out on me leaving my entire life behind to avoid getting killed? Why would I want to engage with a group of people, that are convinced that the millions of Venezuelans who came out of every part of Venezuela to support Juan Guaido (many of them the poor and downtrodden people these idiots claim want Maduro who come from former Chavista strongholds such as Cotiza, Petare and La Vega) are just part of a CIA psy-op. Why would I want to commit myself to engage in such a low level of discussion? fnox fucked around with this message at 09:34 on Jan 25, 2019 |
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Jan 25, 2019 09:19
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I don't see the US staging an intervention unless both a) Venezuela has been in civil war for well over a year and b) we're a few months away from the presidential, but this administration is so schizophrenic that who the gently caress knows.
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Jan 25, 2019 09:29
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fnox posted:What is Pence saying that is so controversial? Like he's just talking the usual lines, it's the same with everyone else that is commenting on the subject, "we want Maduro to recognize the rule of the law and step down". There's no talk of military action, there's no talk of humanitarian intervention. He's not saying anything I haven't heard him say before. When the vice president of the US says that he "hopes maduro will accept a peaceful transition of power" it's a direct threat. It's what we've said about countless smoldering wrecks of countries in the past.
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Jan 25, 2019 09:31
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fnox posted:You're all seriously overestimating how much the US cares. The US population as a whole extremely doesn't care, they have problems of their own. The people in charge, on the other hand, well let me put it this way:  you're incredibly naive if you think this doesn't matter. We're quickly approaching peak oil. Fracking pushed it back 5-10 years, receding ice sheets might give access to new oil reserves further north and push it back a couple years more, and then that's that. The people in charge of oil powered capitalist states know this.
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Jan 25, 2019 09:34
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Socks4Hands posted:When the vice president of the US says that he "hopes maduro will accept a peaceful transition of power" it's a direct threat. It's what we've said about countless smoldering wrecks of countries in the past. He's been saying this since he took office in 2016 lol. You just haven't been paying attention, because ultimately, you don't give a poo poo about this subject until it pops on your Twitter feed. And to answer your previous question, why would I want to engage with a bunch of out-of-touch gringos who are convinced their problems are comparable to mine and that they have a right to call me out on me leaving my entire life behind to avoid getting killed? Why would I want to engage with a group of people, that are convinced that the millions of Venezuelans who came out of every part of Venezuela to support Juan Guaido (many of them the poor and downtrodden people these idiots claim want Maduro, who come from former Chavista strongholds such as Cotiza, Petare and La Vega) are just part of a CIA psy-op. Why would I want to commit myself to engage in such a low level of discussion? Truga posted:The people in charge, on the other hand, well let me put it this way: We know we have the largest crude reserves in the world, we've known this for a while, it doesn't change the fact that we still sell most of it to the US. If the US wants to do anything with it, it would have to commit several hundred billions in infrastructure and work (on top of whatever a full invasion would cost) that would mean those large reserves of heavy crude (Which is a lot harder to process than Saudi Arabia's light crude) wouldn't even be tappable for decades. You think Trump's an idiot, do you also think he has the oversight to think 10-15 years down the line? Not only that, do you think it's only the US who would be interested in this plan? Why is nobody concerned about China and Russia, who already have a piece of the pie? What I think, ultimately, is that the US did their calculations, and they realised the thing that is the most convenient them is to have a government in Venezuela that is not complete poo poo, that will eventually pay off all the debts Chavistas owe to other nations and that will increase production in the long run to be able to satisfy US domestic demand. You're thinking like we're not currently selling our oil directly to the US. fnox fucked around with this message at 09:56 on Jan 25, 2019 |
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Jan 25, 2019 09:54
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fnox posted:He's been saying this since he took office in 2016 lol. You just haven't been paying attention, because ultimately, you don't give a poo poo about this subject until it pops on your Twitter feed. I don't know, man. Maybe a Panamanian has something to say about US-backed regime change? It's fine though. This is what the people want! This time, instead of burning an unrelated neighborhood to cinders with flamethrowers and killing 500 civilians in the process it'll be nice, sanitary drone warfare. While my family in Panama City were concerned about becoming barbeque, at least it was a more humanizing term than bug splat.
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Jan 25, 2019 10:12
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fnox posted:Not only that, do you think it's only the US who would be interested in this plan? Why is nobody concerned about China and Russia, who already have a piece of the pie? Yeah, US is going to be extremely invested in an invasion that destroys all the records, after china and russia bought out half the country. Those two don't have to right now, they already own it. fnox posted:We know we have the largest crude reserves in the world, we've known this for a while, it doesn't change the fact that we still sell most of it to the US. If the US wants to do anything with it, it would have to commit several hundred billions in infrastructure and work (on top of whatever a full invasion would cost) that would mean those large reserves of heavy crude (Which is a lot harder to process than Saudi Arabia's light crude) wouldn't even be tappable for decades. You think Trump's an idiot, do you also think he has the oversight to think 10-15 years down the line? As you said yourself multiple times, venezuelan oil infrastructure is in shambles, they're not producing nearly enough oil, and they're investing no money in more drilling. At the same time, US rival states are buying up real estate. Why would US *not* be interested in invading the only big oil site that's actually geographically in the vicinity? They blew up iraq over less when saddam couldn't sell enough oil for their tastes. Also, yes, trump's a loving idiot, but he's not in charge and republicans are getting paid by the best oil barons in the world to do their bidding.
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Jan 25, 2019 10:16
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Truga posted:Why would US *not* be interested in invading the only big oil site that's actually geographically in the vicinity? Because it would cost far, far, far more money than it's worth. You answered your own question in the previous sentence.
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Jan 25, 2019 10:21
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At current oil prices? Maybe. But current oil prices are only a tiny part of the picture.Truga posted:We're quickly approaching peak oil. Fracking pushed it back 5-10 years, receding ice sheets might give access to new oil reserves further north and push it back a couple years more, and then that's that. The people in charge of oil powered capitalist states know this.
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Jan 25, 2019 10:23
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Truga, all that oil already comes to the US. In fact the US has such a monopoly on the refinement of it that even if Russia and China wanted to start rerouting the shipments it would likely have to keep going to US ports for years as they develop all new infrastructure because venezuelan oil is crap quality out of the pipes.
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Jan 25, 2019 10:24
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Truga posted:Whataboutism and a strawman in one line? Nice! coffeetable fucked around with this message at 10:50 on Jan 25, 2019 |
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Jan 25, 2019 10:44
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peak cheap sweet liquid oil has come and gone; peak oil as a whole isn't going to come until people get serious about climate change
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Jan 25, 2019 10:45
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coffeetable fucked around with this message at 10:54 on Jan 25, 2019 |
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Jan 25, 2019 10:47
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Truga posted:Whataboutism and a strawman in one line? Nice! You're saying that the US is going to steal Chinese and Russian assets in Venezuela with an invasion? This is as far fetched as it gets, and it's really not worth the trouble for them. They didn't blow up Iraq over less, matter of fact, stop bringing up Iraq, it's not even remotely comparable. Socks4Hands posted:I don't know, man. Maybe a Panamanian has something to say about US-backed regime change? It's fine though. This is what the people want! This time, instead of burning an unrelated neighborhood to cinders with flamethrowers and killing 500 civilians in the process it'll be nice, sanitary drone warfare. While my family in Panama City were concerned about becoming barbeque, at least it was a more humanizing term than bug splat. Who is asking for a loving military intervention? You're talking like if anybody here is asking for anything other than just not backing Maduro. We can get him out, we just need the international community to not gently caress us over again with another 'dialogue'.
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Jan 25, 2019 10:50
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fnox posted:Who is asking for a loving military intervention? You're talking like if anybody here is asking for anything other than just not backing Maduro. We can get him out, we just need the international community to not gently caress us over again with another 'dialogue'. Nobody asks for a US military intervention. That's a helpful thing you could learn from Panama. Sing Along fucked around with this message at 10:56 on Jan 25, 2019 |
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Jan 25, 2019 10:54
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Truga posted:Whataboutism and a strawman in one line? Nice! It’s actually important to be wary of how different countries stand to profit from a given situation and is an equally valid thing to say, specially so when Russia has been bankrolling and profiting the whole endeavour. It’s not a goddamn race to declare “this side is doing it” and then any further examples from other actors are thereby invalid because of whataboutism But hey, if you wanna tacitally support a neo colonialist action to maintain a right wing dictatorship then I guess I can’t stop you. Good thing it’s the browns who are suffering and not anybody that you consider to be actually human
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Jan 25, 2019 11:17
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Shale oil isn't going to be important ever, by the time crude oil gets rare and expensive enough that shale is actually an important share of oil, either we'll have transitioned off oil, or more likely, climate change's gonna remove several billion people off the world and leave the rest in pre-industrial communities who don't have the means of using oil shale.fnox posted:You're saying that the US is going to steal Chinese and Russian assets in Venezuela with an invasion? This is as far fetched as it gets, and it's really not worth the trouble for them. They didn't blow up Iraq over less, matter of fact, stop bringing up Iraq, it's not even remotely comparable. When you say "I hope maduro goes peacefully" you mean what you say, when pence says "I hope he goes peacefully" what that means is "boy, I sure hope my rich friends have to buy some bombs from me before they can start drilling" Furia posted:It’s actually important to be wary of how different countries stand to profit from a given situation and is an equally valid thing to say, specially so when Russia has been bankrolling and profiting the whole endeavour. It’s not a goddamn race to declare “this side is doing it” and then any further examples from other actors are thereby invalid because of whataboutism Oh gently caress off. Yes, russia and china are probably gonna be the no1 problems for venezuela after they get rid of maduro, but can you please stop pretending US somehow isn't?
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Jan 25, 2019 11:20
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Socks4Hands posted:Nobody asks for a US military intervention. That's a helpful thing you could learn from Panama. Not sure why you're bringing up Panama as this awful example of American excesses, when there's Venezuelans just pouring into Panama right now, escaping Maduro. Like, of all examples of American interventionism you're bringing up the one country that is doing just fine after getting invaded, and the one invasion that was largely supported by the people getting invaded.
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Jan 25, 2019 11:20
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Truga posted:Oh gently caress off. Yes, russia and china are probably gonna be the no1 problems for venezuela after they get rid of maduro, but can you please stop pretending US somehow isn't? Either point me to the post were I did said “the US does not stand to benefit” or shut the gently caress up gringo. I don’t need you to whitesplain me about my own country or the fact that there are multiple interests on this You on the other hand apparently do because when an actual person who’s opinion matters brings up China and Russia you put your hands in your ears and go “LALALALALA WHATABOUTISM”
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Jan 25, 2019 11:23
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Furia posted:It’s actually important to be wary of how different countries stand to profit from a given situation and is an equally valid thing to say, specially so when Russia has been bankrolling and profiting the whole endeavour. It’s not a goddamn race to declare “this side is doing it” and then any further examples from other actors are thereby invalid because of whataboutism Don't forget, for these people only the US is capable of neo colonialism. I do have to say though that I love the idea that the US would invade and then "destroy the records" of the Chinese and Russian payday loans like these things are written down on vellum or some poo poo.
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Jan 25, 2019 11:23
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fnox posted:Not sure why you're bringing up Panama as this awful example of American excesses, when there's Venezuelans just pouring into Panama right now, escaping Maduro. Like, of all examples of American interventionism you're bringing up the one country that is doing just fine after getting invaded, and the one invasion that was largely supported by the people getting invaded. If Venezuela had a canal critical to international shipping running through it maybe the US would have a vested interest in keeping it stable post-intervention, especially if they can help turn it into the money-laundering capital of the world. I'm glad you're fine with the US invading Panama and murdering our citizens because it turned us into the decocted essence of neoliberal society, but we're not. Start digging.
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Jan 25, 2019 11:27
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Furia posted:Either point me to the post were I did said “the US does not stand to benefit” or shut the gently caress up gringo. I'm glad we agree. I'm also not whitesplaining anything, and I'm not a gringo. I don't think the US is going to invade, but I also thought they wouldn't invade iraq, and I thought they wouldn't invade afghanistan and I thought they wouldn't bomb libya, so my track record is extremely good, as you can see.
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Jan 25, 2019 11:28
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im sure there are perfectly viable scenarios where America, China, and Russia all get paid, no need for this pessimism
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Jan 25, 2019 11:30
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Berke Negri posted:im sure there are perfectly viable scenarios where America, China, and Russia all get paid, no need for this pessimism We'll do it by bringing back the Americas greatest contribution to the world; Chattel Slavery
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Jan 25, 2019 11:31
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