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punk rebel ecks
Dec 11, 2010

A shitty post? This calls for a dance of deduction.

Truga posted:

yeah i'm sorry i'll shut up now.

I'd like to show Truga respect for actually coming to terms with the situation, instead of arguing while keeping his head in the sand like virtually all other American posters.

You Venezuelans managed to change one mind at least during this whole fiasco.

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Truga
May 4, 2014
Lipstick Apathy

Norton the First posted:

I swear to God nothing would make me so happy as if people would stop referring to every popular rebellion as a coup attempt. There is a huge loving difference between some colonels putting tanks in the streets and opposition figures getting hundreds of thousands of people to go out and protest.
yeah, just call it a revolution, if it's a popular uprising it's that.

wait no that's bad too now because :ussr:, poo poo

punk rebel ecks posted:

I'd like to show Truga respect for actually coming to terms with the situation, instead of arguing while keeping his head in the sand like virtually all other American posters.
i'm not actually american :ssh:

Acebuckeye13
Nov 2, 2010
Ultra Carp

Yossarian-22 posted:

Guiado is a protege of Leopoldo Lopez, who participated in the coup government against Chavez in 2002 with American support.

You act like the people pointing out problems with Guiado have short-term memories and yet U.S. subversion of Venezuela has been happening since Chavez first won election in 1999. You can't fully understand the present situation in context without taking a long view

Even ignoring the Lopez's level of cooperation in the 2002 coup (he was the mayor of a town and organized some protests and a citizens arrest of the interior minister, which, okay), the reason why he's in jail is because of absurdly trumped-up charges from the 2014 protests, because the PSUV realized he was extremely popular figure and could easily win in future elections.

You really shouldn't tell people they can't understand the context of the situation when you seem to be lacking on pretty key details yourself.

Doloen
Dec 18, 2004

Yossarian-22 posted:

Right, because there were attempted coups in 2014 and 2017 in which several opposition figures participated

Acting like Maduro is the only person in Venezuelan politics with a questionable devotion to democracy is incredibly naive

He says, while deliberately mischaracterizing large scale protests as a coup.

uninterrupted
Jun 20, 2011

Acebuckeye13 posted:

But you're just talking about generalities. What options does the Venezuelan opposition have? What paths are there available for the Venezuelan people that don't end in continued starvation or eventual bloodshed? (also Guaidó has barely said anything at this point so it's weird to say he's consolidating power)

No action is better than US lead regime change. Maduro is better than US regime change.

Only a fool says “well, we have to do SOMETHING.” And I’d personally prefer not to go back to the days where CIA goons roamed the streets picking up homeless people and torturing them to death so the local US client government knew how to do it themselves.

punk rebel ecks
Dec 11, 2010

A shitty post? This calls for a dance of deduction.

Truga posted:

i'm not actually american :ssh:

Bullshit. Everyone from Something Awful is American unless proven otherwise.

ryde
Sep 9, 2011

God I love young girls

punk rebel ecks posted:

I'd like to show Truga respect for actually coming to terms with the situation, instead of arguing while keeping his head in the sand like virtually all other American posters.

You Venezuelans managed to change one mind at least during this whole fiasco.

I wouldn't call myself a socialist (maybe socialist-sympathetic but skeptical?) but I had pretty positive opinions about the Venezuelan government when lurking this thread about three years ago. My opinion has shifted pretty dramatically.

Edit: Totally an American btw.

Truga
May 4, 2014
Lipstick Apathy
So has everyone elses, the tankies still defending maduro have are well.. tankies.

I do like the fact that I got called a racist gringo because I said a US invasion would be bad though.

e: I think I first opened this thread a year or two ago and I got straightened out pretty quickly in what's really the situation (I had no idea before what was real and what propaganda). Chuck Boone's posts own.

Truga fucked around with this message at 18:53 on Jan 25, 2019

ryde
Sep 9, 2011

God I love young girls

Truga posted:

I do like the fact that I got called a racist gringo because I said a US invasion would be bad though.

I'm not a big fan of that either to be honest. I sort-of beat around the bush on that. I didn't want to directly criticize because it came from a place of hurt from Venezuelans that are seeing their country turn into a failed state and their people starving.

Quorum
Sep 24, 2014

REMIND ME AGAIN HOW THE LITTLE HORSE-SHAPED ONES MOVE?
International military intervention is already happening in Venezuela, actually:

quote:

Private military contractors who do secret missions for Russia flew into Venezuela in the past few days to beef up security for President Nicolas Maduro in the face of U.S.-backed opposition protests, according to two people close to them.

A third source close to the Russian contractors also told Reuters there was a contingent of them in Venezuela, but could not say when they arrived or what their role was.

Acebuckeye13
Nov 2, 2010
Ultra Carp

uninterrupted posted:

No action is better than US lead regime change. Maduro is better than US regime change.

Only a fool says “well, we have to do SOMETHING.” And I’d personally prefer not to go back to the days where CIA goons roamed the streets picking up homeless people and torturing them to death so the local US client government knew how to do it themselves.

I feel like there's a brick wall here. Your argument is that US lead regime change is the worst possible result in any circumstance, which, sure, everyone here is aware of Iran and Chile. Nobody here wants the CIA to poison Maduro's mustache.

But at this point, this isn't that. Guaidó isn't some military strongman, he's the equivalent of Nancy Pelosi. The US isn't sending tanks and guns or threatening direct military action (By which I mean having a carrier strike group parked right off the coast with the implicit threat that if the military takes action the tomahawks start flying), thus far they've only provided diplomatic recognition and there's been scattered, uncoordinated talk of sanctions that may or may not happen.

Under Maduro, the country is actively dying. The lives of ordinary Venezuelans are made worse every second that Maduro remains in power. If something can be done that can peacefully and legally remove Maduro from office with brand-new elections (even if you have to squint at the legal argument)... well, that's not a bad thing, and worth supporting even if you can retain a very healthy suspicion of the overall motives of the United States and its level of involvement.

Red and Black
Sep 5, 2011

ryde posted:

I think that most of the detractors assume the answer to this is "yes" and are not up-to-date on the last three years of developments.

They are correct. The opposition is literally doing this because they can't win at the ballot box.

Acebuckeye13
Nov 2, 2010
Ultra Carp

Chomskyan posted:

They are correct. The opposition is literally doing this because they can't win at the ballot box.

They won the legislature in 2015 and they won hard. The PSUV's response was to strip the legislature of all power and make a new one that they controlled.

You remember this, right?

e: oh yeah, there was also the recall election referendum that the CNE slow walked for over a year without reason and then gave up all pretenses of even bothering to run, that was fun

Acebuckeye13 fucked around with this message at 19:04 on Jan 25, 2019

punk rebel ecks
Dec 11, 2010

A shitty post? This calls for a dance of deduction.

ryde posted:

I wouldn't call myself a socialist (maybe socialist-sympathetic but skeptical?) but I had pretty positive opinions about the Venezuelan government when lurking this thread about three years ago. My opinion has shifted pretty dramatically.

Edit: Totally an American btw.

It took me a few months. What really did it was following Venezuelan politics and seeing how the PSUV just didn't give a poo poo in solving problems.

People try to frame things that Venezuela got this way due to a sudden crisis in oil prices, but in reality this was a slow gradual process of things getting very steadily worse.

Edit - Also, Labradoodle and Chuck Boone's posts present good arguments.

Truga posted:

So has everyone elses, the tankies still defending maduro have are well.. tankies.

I do like the fact that I got called a racist gringo because I said a US invasion would be bad though.

To be fair, the Venezuelans in the thread are very on edge because everytime they say "Maduro is bad" they the response "So you WANT a US invasion!? Ha! You're just a rich Venezuelan who hates the poor browns!!!"

punk rebel ecks fucked around with this message at 19:08 on Jan 25, 2019

Labradoodle
Nov 24, 2011

Crax daubentoni

Chomskyan posted:

They are correct. The opposition is literally doing this because they can't win at the ballot box.

You have to be mind-bogglingly ignorant to think Maduro could beat anyone in a fair election. The opposition could put up a capybara as its candidate and it would win in a landslide.

ryde
Sep 9, 2011

God I love young girls

Chomskyan posted:

They are correct. The opposition is literally doing this because they can't win at the ballot box.

Incorrect, as the 2015 elections, polling, etc have all shown. This is what I mean by "3 years out of date." Maduro was popular at a time due to being Chavez's successor but as things have steadily gotten worse his support has eroded and he's increasingly had to resort to strong-man tactics in order to prevent the PSUV's power being lost.

uninterrupted
Jun 20, 2011

Acebuckeye13 posted:

I feel like there's a brick wall here. Your argument is that US lead regime change is the worst possible result in any circumstance, which, sure, everyone here is aware of Iran and Chile. Nobody here wants the CIA to poison Maduro's mustache.

But at this point, this isn't that. Guaidó isn't some military strongman, he's the equivalent of Nancy Pelosi. The US isn't sending tanks and guns or threatening direct military action (By which I mean having a carrier strike group parked right off the coast with the implicit threat that if the military takes action the tomahawks start flying), thus far they've only provided diplomatic recognition and there's been scattered, uncoordinated talk of sanctions that may or may not happen.

Under Maduro, the country is actively dying. The lives of ordinary Venezuelans are made worse every second that Maduro remains in power. If something can be done that can peacefully and legally remove Maduro from office with brand-new elections (even if you have to squint at the legal argument)... well, that's not a bad thing, and worth supporting even if you can retain a very healthy suspicion of the overall motives of the United States and its level of involvement.

US action during regime change is never just peaceful diplomacy though. There was an assassination attempt against maduro in August of last year.

Put it this way, as bad as Maduro is (and I’m unequivocally saying Maduro is an awful leader) do you think Mike Pence’s intentions for Venezuela are any more noble? Pompeo? Trump?

Truga
May 4, 2014
Lipstick Apathy

punk rebel ecks posted:

To be fair, the Venezuelans in the thread are very on edge because everytime they say "Maduro is bad" they the response "So you WANT a US invasion!? Ha! You're just a rich Venezuelan who hates the poor browns!!!"

Yeah, I wish those posters got hosed tbh. It's an incredible false dilemma that keeps getting brought up.

ryde
Sep 9, 2011

God I love young girls

punk rebel ecks posted:

Edit - Also, Labradoodle and Chuck Boone's posts present good arguments.

Acebuckeye13 has also been really good and patient with explaining things.

Norton the First
Dec 4, 2018

by Fluffdaddy

uninterrupted posted:

US action during regime change is never just peaceful diplomacy though. There was an assassination attempt against maduro in August of last year.

Yeah, that couldn't possibly have been anyone but the CIA. It had their fingerprints all over it: it was a miserable failure.

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 10, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.
Ilhan Omar is making some pretty disappointing tweets on the subject. She’s also retweeting Russia Today pundits.

Furia
Jul 26, 2015

Grimey Drawer

uninterrupted posted:

Put it this way, as bad as Maduro is (and I’m unequivocally saying Maduro is an awful leader) do you think Mike Pence’s intentions for Venezuela are any more noble? Pompeo? Trump?

Nobody thinks they are

And, conveniently, none of those dickbags are or can be the interim president of Venezuela

Truga
May 4, 2014
Lipstick Apathy
https://twitter.com/ReutersBiz/status/1088855334616268800

jfc, no poo poo?

punk rebel ecks
Dec 11, 2010

A shitty post? This calls for a dance of deduction.

ryde posted:

Acebuckeye13 has also been really good and patient with explaining things.

Again, if you guys want to hear more of Chuck's arguments I interviewed him.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pk5SxqqSRC4

Red and Black
Sep 5, 2011

Acebuckeye13 posted:

They won the legislature in 2015 and they won hard. The PSUV's response was to strip the legislature of all power and make a new one that they controlled.

You remember this, right?

Yes actually, strange how only the elections the opposition loses are "rigged"

Yossarian-22
Oct 26, 2014

Acebuckeye13 posted:

Even ignoring the Lopez's level of cooperation in the 2002 coup (he was the mayor of a town and organized some protests and a citizens arrest of the interior minister, which, okay), the reason why he's in jail is because of absurdly trumped-up charges from the 2014 protests, because the PSUV realized he was extremely popular figure and could easily win in future elections.

You really shouldn't tell people they can't understand the context of the situation when you seem to be lacking on pretty key details yourself.

In fairness, 2014 was a popular uprising which some opposition figures hoped to turn into a revolution. I'll cede that point. However, 2017 actually featured the bombing of the Venezuelan supreme court by a police helicopter with grenades

More on the violent history of the opposition can be found here. It should be noted that even with the violent crackdown in 2014, half of those killed were at the hands of the opposition https://www.jacobinmag.com/2016/09/venezuela-opposition-maduro-chavez-coup-protests/

Red and Black
Sep 5, 2011

ryde posted:

Incorrect, as the 2015 elections, polling, etc have all shown. This is what I mean by "3 years out of date." Maduro was popular at a time due to being Chavez's successor but as things have steadily gotten worse his support has eroded and he's increasingly had to resort to strong-man tactics in order to prevent the PSUV's power being lost.

At the time, the same idiots were criticizing the "bus driver" Maduro for "stealing" the 2013 presidential election. Again very strange how the only elections that are "rigged" are the one the opposition loses!

Typical Pubbie
May 10, 2011
"Can't rig an election if your opponent's in jail" :smuggo:

AGGGGH BEES
Apr 28, 2018

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
It would be good if the cspam people found something to post about other than the imaginary US invasion that's settled into their brains like fruit mold.

ryde
Sep 9, 2011

God I love young girls

Chomskyan posted:

At the time, the same idiots were criticizing the "bus driver" Maduro for "stealing" the 2013 presidential election. Again very strange how the only elections that are "rigged" are the one the opposition loses!

I don't recall Chuck Boone, fnox, Acebuckeye13, Labradoodle, etc claiming that Maduro stole the election. I know that was an argument that was floated around in US circle and was pretty easily disproven. When people made arguments that poo poo was going down currently (i.e. around 2016), I was pretty skeptical because my memory was of people claiming shenanigans in elections that seemed fair by all information. But its increasingly evident that democratic institutions have been eroded and PSUV has lost support.

Yossarian-22
Oct 26, 2014

AGGGGH BEES posted:

It would be good if the cspam people found something to post about other than the imaginary US invasion that's settled into their brains like fruit mold.

Let's just conveniently ignore the 19 years of the U.S. sanctioning the country and trying to oust Chavez and Maduro, because only boots on the ground constitutes "intervention" as such right?

I remember the good old days of Obama/NATO apologists insisting that the "No Fly Zone" in Libya was simply a defensive measure aimed at preventing things from getting out of hand and not creeping intervention

It's really sad that nobody in here can see the obvious writing on the wall but so it goes. Look forward to seeing all of you cheerlead intervention when it actually comes

Norton the First
Dec 4, 2018

by Fluffdaddy

Chomskyan posted:

Yes actually, strange how only the elections the opposition loses are "rigged"

So: the opposition won big, but they were denied the effective use of their legal powers almost immediately. Since then the situation has gotten immeasurably worse. Now, as you say, the opposition "can't win" in elections that you clearly believe are free and fair. Do you have a proposed mechanism for how the PSUV won back the overwhelming support of the people in the interim? Is it because they've been doing such a good job?

I agree, it's strange.

Pharohman777
Jan 14, 2012

by Fluffdaddy

Yossarian-22 posted:

Let's just conveniently ignore the 19 years of the U.S. sanctioning the country and trying to oust Chavez and Maduro, because only boots on the ground constitutes "intervention" as such right?

I remember the good old days of Obama/NATO apologists insisting that the "No Fly Zone" in Libya was simply a defensive measure aimed at preventing things from getting out of hand and not creeping intervention

It's really sad that nobody in here can see the obvious writing on the wall but so it goes. Look forward to seeing all of you cheerlead intervention when it actually comes

Oh, so you never decided to look at what the sanctions actually were, huh.
https://www.state.gov/e/eb/tfs/spi/venezuela/

Norton the First
Dec 4, 2018

by Fluffdaddy

Yossarian-22 posted:

However, 2017 actually featured the bombing of the Venezuelan supreme court by a police helicopter with grenades

You should really read up more on that story before you use it as evidence of a coup.

AGGGGH BEES
Apr 28, 2018

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Yossarian-22 posted:

Let's just conveniently ignore the 19 years of the U.S. sanctioning the country and trying to oust Chavez and Maduro, because only boots on the ground constitutes "intervention" as such right?

I remember the good old days of Obama/NATO apologists insisting that the "No Fly Zone" in Libya was simply a defensive measure aimed at preventing things from getting out of hand and not creeping intervention

It's really sad that nobody in here can see the obvious writing on the wall but so it goes. Look forward to seeing all of you cheerlead intervention when it actually comes

lol

Posting indignantly works better when you arn't wrong about basically everything.

Pharohman777
Jan 14, 2012

by Fluffdaddy
This situation has been boiling and boiling for over 5 years now, ever since the opposition won in a landslide and the response of the psuv was to take complete control of the supreme court to neuter any attempt by the national assembly to pass laws or function.

Chuck boone, maybe you could assemble a primer or something on some of this stuff the d&d thread regulars are talking about and referencing, because the newcomers need to know about the supreme court stuffing and other events.

Yossarian-22
Oct 26, 2014

Norton the First posted:

You should really read up more on that story before you use it as evidence of a coup.

That it was in response to Maduro packing the court and creating a constituent assembly? Sure.

I'm not trying to paint Maduro in any kind of positive light here. I just think that out and out claiming that you're the president despite not having military backing or any popular election to speak of sets a dangerous precedent

Yossarian-22
Oct 26, 2014

Pharohman777 posted:

This situation has been boiling and boiling for over 5 years now, ever since the opposition won in a landslide and the response of the psuv was to take complete control of the supreme court to neuter any attempt by the national assembly to pass laws or function.

Chuck boone, maybe you could assemble a primer or something on some of this stuff the d&d thread regulars are talking about and referencing, because the newcomers need to know about the supreme court stuffing and other events.

Maduro is bad. That's a real shocker. I guess we we need to have a civil war then

Schadenboner
Aug 15, 2011

by Shine

Chomskyan posted:

Yes actually, strange how only the elections the opposition loses are "rigged"

Rigging an election, by definition, is a governmental act (or the act of a party which controls the government acting under color of law), why would you rig an election such that you didn’t win? I’m legitimately confused about what is being suggested here.

Labradoodle posted:

You have to be mind-bogglingly ignorant to think Maduro could beat anyone in a fair election. The opposition could put up a capybara as its candidate and it would win in a landslide.

I mean, tbf I’d vote for a capybara pretty willingly? Although it would depend on his policy on several issues?

:3:

Schadenboner fucked around with this message at 19:48 on Jan 25, 2019

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Red and Black
Sep 5, 2011

The opposition has had many opportunities to come to a compromise with the PSUV through democratic means. The Constituent Assembly election, which was in accordance with Venezuela's constitution, was one such opportunity. Instead the opposition decided on a boycott, and escalated their violent tactics against the state. Now they're attempting to install a right-wing dictator who never won a SINGLE VOTE.

I hope you all understand, that Guaido's obvious intention is not just to rid Venezuela of specific elements like Maduro and the PSUV, but to rid the country of its working class movement that put them in power. This is obvious because the US would not be swinging this hard for him if that wasn't his goal. Except there's no way for the opposition to eliminate these people, and they will absolutely take up arms in defense of the economic and social rights the Bolivarian revolution undisputably granted them. If the US and Guaido persist with their coup, it will mean an incredibly bloody civil war. That is what Guaido's stans here are actually supporting

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