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Squalid posted:More polls won't mean anything if there are methodological problems. I went to the website of this company but I didn't really feel I figured anything out. How reliable do you think they are? Do you think they may have institutional biases, or do you think their sample is representative? You're right--I mean more polls by other companies, hopefully with different methodologies, like door-to-door, cell phones included, etc., as well as a larger sample size. I want to stress that survey design is not my strongest skill. It's been a few years since my research methods class and I haven't used surveys in my own research, but the fact that most Venezuelan surveys that I can remember have a sample size of ~1,200, combined with the fact that this one was conducted over a period of 2 days, leads me to think that they ended up with a smaller sample size than they would aim for if they had more time to conduct a survey. Having said that, their level of confidence and margin of error are OK (97% and 3.7% respectively), so that tells me that they're not just making up numbers. The survey sampled the 16 most populous states (out of 23) across 32 cities, and it says that these make up 82.25% of the country's population. Leaving out the less populous states leaves out poorer rural folk, which 15 years ago might have included a ton of chavista voters, but the fact is that today it's the poor rural people who are getting hit by the crisis. I never did learn how to calculate sample size representatives, so if anyone out there knows how to do that this would be a good example to test that out. There were 20.3 million registered voters in Venezuela for the May 20 presidential election. Meganalisis is a big polling firm and their stuff is reported in the media often. Hercon and Datanalisis are the other two companies. I can't really speak to any biases--like I said, they're one of maybe three polling firms in the country and their stuff gets reported as much as the other two. Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 05:15 on Jan 27, 2019 |
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Jan 27, 2019 05:09
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Chuck Boone posted:I never did learn how to calculate sample size representatives, so if anyone out there knows how to do that this would be a good example to test that out. There were 20.3 million registered voters in Venezuela for the May 20 presidential election. If you want a 2% margin of error and 95% confidence level for 20.3 million, you'd want 2400 people to answer. 1225 people gives you a margin of error of about 2.8% with a 95% confidence level, or about 3.7% at a 99% confidence level. The thing about sample sizes is that you don;'t really need a lot of people to accurately survey a large population, and you get to the point where asking more people doesn't really improve the result more quickly than you might think.
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Jan 27, 2019 05:32
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Chuck Boone posted:You're right--I mean more polls by other companies, hopefully with different methodologies, like door-to-door, cell phones included, etc., as well as a larger sample size. I want to stress that survey design is not my strongest skill. If the government is crazy repressive killing and jailing people you'll never get good polling because no one is going to talk to someone they don't know and give info that may get them tortured or killed. If you can trust the polling because people think they can express themselves without fear of retaliation from the government. Then why does the US need to intervene?
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Jan 27, 2019 05:37
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Epicurius posted:If you want a 2% margin of error and 95% confidence level for 20.3 million, you'd want 2400 people to answer. 1225 people gives you a margin of error of about 2.8% with a 95% confidence level, or about 3.7% at a 99% confidence level. The thing about sample sizes is that you don;'t really need a lot of people to accurately survey a large population, and you get to the point where asking more people doesn't really improve the result more quickly than you might think. Yeah and to add to this, much more important than adding another 500 or so respondents to a survey that already has hundreds, is insuring that the people replying represent the country as a whole. If you only call landlines but many households only have cellphones, that's suggests your survey results will be biased compared to the entire population. It can be hard to assess what methods are appropriate in a given context without deep knowledge.
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Jan 27, 2019 05:59
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Axelord, they already answer that. Your interrogation of the polling methods is starting to look really bad faith.
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Jan 27, 2019 06:08
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It doesn't matter if the majority of the population are loving starving. This is a very special case, and when it comes to polls like that, that's bullshit.
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Jan 27, 2019 06:18
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Discendo Vox posted:Axelord, they already answer that. Your interrogation of the polling methods is starting to look really bad faith. Then my apologies let me make my opinion clear on the poll and polling in this situation in general. Under a repressive regime people are not going to feel able to answer truthfully without risking themselves and their families. If people are able to express themselves without retaliation then why does the US need to intervene? I don't see that changing no matter if the polling methods change. If you are looking for polling to show support for the US intervening you are never going to find it.
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Jan 27, 2019 06:46
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axelord posted:Then my apologies let me make my opinion clear on the poll and polling in this situation in general. Trying to follow your logic here: 1) If a regime is not repressive, the US should not intervene. 2) If a regime is repressive, it will not be possible to conduct accurate polling, nor will it be possible for people to express discontent to surveyors. 3) Therefore if polling results suggest discontent and opposition to the regime, it is evidence that the regime is not repressive, and 4) therefore it is evidence the US should not intervene, even if the results suggest the people would support that intervention. I think one potential point of failure in this chain of reasoning is assumption number 2. That it is necessarily true that people cannot answer polls honestly in a "repressive" regime. Of course, there are many ways to define what is or isn't repressive. I'm not going to pick a definition, but its worth pointing out that even on this page several of the Venezuelan posters have pointed out that many Venezuelans don't feel able to answer questions honestly. Chuck Boon pointed out that while people feel free expressing their opinions, they will give fake names and contact info when doing so. labradoodle pointed out that person in the military are subject to much stricter oversight of their political inclination and expression. This control also extends to other government employees. During elections they will be required to vote for the government, and they will be monitored to insure compliance. Here's a quote: quote:Pressure on state employees is higher than ever, according to interviews with two dozen workers at institutions ranging from state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) to the Caracas subway, as well as text messages, internal statements, and videos seen by Reuters. There are a variety of explicit and implicit limits to public expression in Venezuela, though they may be unevenly and irregularly applied. Venezuela is certainly a far cry from Stalinist Russia, but there are obviously different degrees of "repressiveness" that we can conceive. I would also argue that a good definition of "repressive" should be more expansive than just what people feel comfortable saying in public. Finally, establishing whether the Maduro government is repressive, by any definition, does not imply that a United States intervention is justified, or tactically wise.
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Jan 27, 2019 07:31
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axelord posted:Then my apologies let me make my opinion clear on the poll and polling in this situation in general. Why does this have to be polling "to show support for the US intervening" - ? Why can this not be about whether or not there is a substantial opposition to Maduro's rule somewhat observable among the Venezuelan people?
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Jan 27, 2019 08:27
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axelord posted:Then my apologies let me make my opinion clear on the poll and polling in this situation in general. Under a repressive regime people are not going to feel able to answer truthfully without risking themselves and their families. If people are able to express themselves without retaliation then why does the US need to intervene? This doesn't really make sense because a 'repressive regime' is not a binary. It is a matter of degree. Venezuelans are clearly not afraid of expressing their dislike of the government in polls; of voting against the government in elections; of marching down the streets. But the government doesn't really care about those things and just rigs elections, shoots at protesters, etc. People are more afraid of the steps to take after that. Understandable. You're basically arguing a man isn't really abusing his wife because "I heard her trash talk him."
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Jan 27, 2019 09:04
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:There is certainly a majority of seats which are not allied with the Patriotic Pole, but that's not necessarily a unified opposition which is all going to be behind American intervention into Venezuelan affairs. I feel like you are wildly overestimating the commitment to imperialism and animosity towards U.S. meddling of the average Venezuelan.
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Jan 27, 2019 09:07
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Has the recent influx of Maduro apologists et al. faded yet? I gave up a few days ago. 
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Jan 27, 2019 09:24
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axelord posted:
Are you loving serious? I live in the US and have been routinely tear gassed for expressing myself Oil
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Jan 27, 2019 10:17
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27 protesters have been shot in just three days after actions by the police and their special forces, the military or paramilitary colectivos https://twitter.com/_Provea/status/1089321731293106176 But please, do keep telling us about how you've been teargassed. beer_war fucked around with this message at 10:31 on Jan 27, 2019 |
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Jan 27, 2019 10:29
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“Personal expression is the same as political expression  There is only one mode of political repression possible, and it involves 1984 style cctv everywhere Surely the government would not be content to let you mouth off and keep you complacent while threatening your livelihhod when they need it the most? ”Quick reminder to everyone reading the thread that these are supposed to be the good, not out of touch, not tone deaf gringos
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Jan 27, 2019 10:39
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beer_war posted:27 protesters have been shot in just three days after actions by the police and their special forces, the military or paramilitary colectivos Ok.it sucks rear end, fucks you up real good for a couple of days and god help you if you have any respiratory problems because you have a non negligible chance to die,but its better than being shot. Hows your experience?
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Jan 27, 2019 10:54
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Couple of days? Did they not teach you to keep a spray bottle of diluted antacid? Dude that thing lasts a couple of hours, I got tear gassed on the regular when I was at UCV. We also got shot at a couple of times, rubber pellets mostly but once by colectivos. Did you all forget all the images of kids carrying wooden shields to protect the frontline of protesters against rubber slugs? Venezuelans have seen some poo poo, they're not afraid to tell Maduro to gently caress off.
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Jan 27, 2019 11:29
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Phlegmish posted:I've been low-key following this thread for years. In that time, there must have been at least a dozen Venezuelan goons active at one point or another. As far as I can remember, not a single one of them had anything good to say about Maduro. Not one. Their stories have been almost universally heart-wrenching. Well you see they just needed a bunch of suburban white dudes to explain them how their country really works
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Jan 27, 2019 12:20
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Epicurius posted:If you want a 2% margin of error and 95% confidence level for 20.3 million, you'd want 2400 people to answer. 1225 people gives you a margin of error of about 2.8% with a 95% confidence level, or about 3.7% at a 99% confidence level. The thing about sample sizes is that you don;'t really need a lot of people to accurately survey a large population, and you get to the point where asking more people doesn't really improve the result more quickly than you might think. Thank you for this awesome explanation! I'll keep an eye out for more polls and share them here as they come out.
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Jan 27, 2019 14:34
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Yeah, people often bring out the low sample size of polls as some kind of problem, but as long as it's in the 1000-2000 range it's "good enough" for millions of people, unless the results are *really* close. A recent example would be: polls with samples in the 2000 range very accurately predicted the outcome of US pres election in 2016, but very few considered the impact of electoral college. Hillary won the popular vote almost on the dot to what polls said, but tromp won the election. So yeah, in an 80/20 split vs maduro, a sample size of as little as 500 would probably be good enough to say that roughly 1 in 5 people supports the opposition as long as the sample isn't just "opposition and friends". Not the same as an election for obvious reasons, but as an instrument to feel roughly where the people stand and call an election on, it's more than good enough.
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Jan 27, 2019 15:07
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Truga posted:Yeah, people often bring out the low sample size of polls as some kind of problem, but as long as it's in the 1000-2000 range it's "good enough" for millions of people, unless the results are *really* close. A recent example would be: polls with samples in the 2000 range very accurately predicted the outcome of US pres election in 2016, but very few considered the impact of electoral college. Hillary won the popular vote almost on the dot to what polls said, but tromp won the election. Re statistics chat, yes. You need a certain sample size to reliably measure the distribution of a variable - i.e. measure its mean and variance. If the variable is noisy you need more observations to ensure you are not collecting a sample that is skewed by outliers. In scientific studies on humans, you might want anywhere between 20 and 100 people. When you're studying a country you want more - but primarily because you are not measuring a single variable any more, but a number of variants of it: one per each meaningful subdivision of your study population. So the question with political polls is not so much that sample size needs to be large to ensure reliability. Instead you need people from all groups of society to ensure that your measurement is representative of all these people. Once all groups on an issue are accurately represented and each measured with sufficient power, further increases in sample size have barely any impact.
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Jan 27, 2019 15:22
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/27/maduro-rejects-ultimatum-on-fresh-elections-in-venezuela So apparently Maduro rejected Europe's call for elections? That'd be Europe on top of the US and most of Latin America recognising Guaidó. Fun times ahead I guess EDIT: some actual quotes https://www.lanacion.com.ar/2214858-crisis-venezuela-nicolas-maduro-cnn-turquia-donald quote:"Se han comportado con arrogancia. Nadie puede darnos un ultimátum. Si alguien quiere irse de Venezuela, que se vaya", dijo el chavista desde Caracas respecto del pedido de la Unión Europea, que llamó a que se convoquen elecciones presidenciales en los próximos ocho días. lmao great example to follow, that Erdogan Pochoclo fucked around with this message at 15:35 on Jan 27, 2019 |
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Jan 27, 2019 15:28
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“What I have in mind is being like Cuba. You know, the garbage economy and political repression bits. Perhaps I’ll consider things like attempting to improve education and human development after that, but we’ll see.” This guy is more unhinged than Che, and that’s saying something.
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Jan 27, 2019 15:45
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Maduro hits a lot of the same beats as Erdogan, right down to blaming nebulous foreign enemies for the results of his disastorus economic policies. When it comes down to it, and despite his vaguely socialist rambling, he's just another authoritarian strongman in the Latin American tradition.
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Jan 27, 2019 15:56
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Pochoclo posted:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/27/maduro-rejects-ultimatum-on-fresh-elections-in-venezuela  Of course most of europe, the US + america's right wing buddies in latin america are going to recognize guaido. What is more interesting is that the rest of the RICS will probably side with maduro against the core imperial countries.
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Jan 27, 2019 15:56
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Phlegmish posted:Maduro hits a lot of the same beats as Erdogan, right down to blaming nebulous foreign enemies for the results of his disastorus economic policies. When it comes down to it, and despite his vaguely socialist rambling, he's just another authoritarian strongman in the Latin American tradition. Well we're seeing other ties to Erdogan, including Russian support. It's literally the same playbook.
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Jan 27, 2019 15:57
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CAPS LOCK BROKEN posted:
Newsflash: Russia *is* imperialist.
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Jan 27, 2019 16:08
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Rust Martialis posted:Newsflash: Russia *is* imperialist. Russia and China both. I mean look at China's operations in Africa, for one
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Jan 27, 2019 16:17
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Pochoclo posted:Russia and China both. I mean look at China's operations in Africa, for one Look at China's operations in Venezuela, lol.
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Jan 27, 2019 16:22
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I guess if you don't want countries to fall into the Russian/Chinese orbit you shouldn't try to coup their governments.
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Jan 27, 2019 16:25
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:I guess if you don't want countries to fall into the Russian/Chinese orbit you shouldn't try to coup their governments. Someone should’ve told Maduro when he couped the country then. Or more relevantly, when he sold off everything he could to finance his Swiss sluch fund
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Jan 27, 2019 16:30
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:I guess if you don't want countries to fall into the Russian/Chinese orbit you shouldn't try to coup their governments. Clearly you *do* coup them in that case. During the Cold War, there'd be pictures of some USMC colonel with his feet up on Maduro's desk by now. Thankfully, we haven't.
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Jan 27, 2019 16:32
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Furia posted:Someone should’ve told Maduro when he couped the country then. How much do you think maduro stole and do you think it’s more than the Bank of England stole from the Venezuelan people a few days ago.
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Jan 27, 2019 16:35
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uninterrupted posted:it’s more than the Bank of England stole from the Venezuelan people a few days ago. Yes, definitely. Did you make any effort to make yourself informed before casting your opinions in this thread? And I’m not counting what was stolen by his cronies here, which I should have done because he is definitely accountable for that e: also I wouldn’t think “stopping Maduro from selling poo poo off to imperialist interests” counts as stolen but you also believed in cancer gun so you do you Furia fucked around with this message at 16:40 on Jan 27, 2019 |
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Jan 27, 2019 16:37
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Rust Martialis posted:Clearly you *do* coup them in that case. During the Cold War, there'd be pictures of some USMC colonel with his feet up on Maduro's desk by now. do you know how chavez came to power in the first place
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Jan 27, 2019 16:38
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Alejandro Andrade alone pled to having taken >$1 billion in bribes, lmao.
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Jan 27, 2019 16:38
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Rust Martialis posted:Clearly you *do* coup them in that case. During the Cold War, there'd be pictures of some USMC colonel with his feet up on Maduro's desk by now. So it's not a coup if there aren't uniformed American soldiers invading a Latin American country, like in Honduras?
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Jan 27, 2019 16:42
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:I guess if you don't want countries to fall into the Russian/Chinese orbit you shouldn't try to coup their governments. Russia has had pretty close ties with Venezuela since Chavez. They negotiated a pretty big weapons deal not long after he was elected. China has just been doing their standard vulture capitalism thing...buying Venezuelan land and assets on the cheap and getting favorable oil deals.
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Jan 27, 2019 16:42
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Epicurius posted:Russia has had pretty close ties with Venezuela since Chavez. They negotiated a pretty big weapons deal not long after he was elected. The United States also supported the coup against Chavez in 2002, which gave him a pretty good incentive to start buying weapons from Russia.
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Jan 27, 2019 16:43
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Furia posted:Yes, definitely. Did you make any effort to make yourself informed before casting your opinions in this thread? By cancer gun do you mean that thing you made up that no one said? Also “I’m taking your money until you install a western puppet who was never elected” is stealing. As usual, coup supporters bend over backwards for any right wing strongman who isn’t maduro.
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Jan 27, 2019 16:44
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