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Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

So it's not a coup if there aren't uniformed American soldiers invading a Latin American country, like in Honduras?

Can you even coup an illegitimate regime?

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uninterrupted
Jun 20, 2011

Rust Martialis posted:

Can you even coup an illegitimate regime?

It’s not illegitimate just because you don’t like this.

Why do Guaido supporters insist on relitigating what words mean every few days. It’s a coup, full stop.

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

(and can't post for 29 days!)

Rust Martialis posted:

Can you even coup an illegitimate regime?

Yes. The definition of a "coup" doesn't stop applying because it's a government you don't like that's being forcibly overthrown.

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there

uninterrupted posted:

It’s not illegitimate just because you don’t like this.

Why do Guaido supporters insist on relitigating what words mean every few days. It’s a coup, full stop.

Maduro's violated the Constitution repeatedly, sorry. Did you skip over the last few years of Venezuelan politics or something? The whole Constituent Assembly process was illegal. You can't just wave that away, sorry.

Acebuckeye13
Nov 2, 2010

Against All Tyrants

Ultra Carp
The typical definition of a coup is "a sudden, violent, and illegal seizure of power from a government," of which this... really isn't? It's (arguably) legal and certainly not violent.

Mean Baby
May 28, 2005

beer_war posted:

27 protesters have been shot in just three days after actions by the police and their special forces, the military or paramilitary colectivos

But please, do keep telling us about how you've been teargassed.

American protestors get beaten or killed all the time. The Trump administration, the hero of this thread, is working to put protesters in jail for years.

The US is willing to kill as many Venezuelans as it takes to get oil, but please continue to insist that they are interested in ‘restoring democracy’.

CAPS LOCK BROKEN
Feb 1, 2006

by Fluffdaddy

Acebuckeye13 posted:

The typical definition of a coup is "a sudden, violent, and illegal seizure of power from a government," of which this... really isn't? It's (arguably) legal and certainly not violent.

A coup d'état (/ˌkuː deɪˈtɑː/ (About this soundlisten); French: [ku deta]), also known simply as a coup, a putsch (/pʊtʃ/), golpe, or an overthrow, is an illegal and overt seizure of a state by the military or other elites within the state apparatus.[1]

All it has to be is illegal (which is really a matter of opinion and which countries are supporting you) and overt (Guaido was a nobody up until a week ago, and now he's the venezuelan obama).

Furia
Jul 26, 2015

Grimey Drawer
Actually you know what? I’m not even going to stop at “Maduro is responsible for the loss of money”.

gently caress the loss of money. Maduro is responsible for every single life lost during his reign. Every teenager murdered by his enforcers, all the children that cried as they starved to death, every grandparent dying of easily curable diseases. Maduro stole this people’s lives from their families and he is accountable for every single one of them.

He is responsible for much more than the simple value of money. He is responsible for lives lost and futures stolen. He is responsible for every single ounce of suffering he inflicted on every single Venezuelan.

Bank of England stopped the shipment of those gold bars to Turkey so they couldn’t go to Russia and China from there? Boo loving hoo. Poor widdle Mababy won’t be able to afford another vacation in Dubai.

Feel free to tell me that, no, um, actually, the monetary value of the human lives lost is much lower than any amount of money. I’m dead certain some posters have wonderful things to say about that and I’m just giddy to hear them.

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

(and can't post for 29 days!)

Acebuckeye13 posted:

The typical definition of a coup is "a sudden, violent, and illegal seizure of power from a government," of which this... really isn't? It's (arguably) legal and certainly not violent.

The fact you even have to say it's arguably legal is an acknowledgement that the constitutionality of this takeover attempt is highly disputed. It's not the prerogative of foreign governments to try and rule lawyer the constitution of Venezuela for it. It is also certainly a form of violence to impose economic sanctions on the leaders and industries of a country with the intention to destabilize it and create crises like this sudden attempt to take power, which was again organized by the very country which imposed sanctions.

uninterrupted
Jun 20, 2011

Acebuckeye13 posted:

The typical definition of a coup is "a sudden, violent, and illegal seizure of power from a government," of which this... really isn't? It's (arguably) legal and certainly not violent.

quote:

Article 233: The President of the Republic shall become permanently unavailable to serve by reason of any of the following events: death; resignation; removal from office by decision of the Supreme Tribunal of Justice; permanent physical or mental disability certified by a medical board designated by the Supreme Tribunal of Justice with the approval of the National Assembly; abandonment of his position, duly declared by the National Assembly; and recall by popular vote

None of the things above happened, it’s completely illegal.

Sidenote: how do the coup-supporters in this thread feel about the fact that Guaido is already planning to cut CLAP food aid and public housing?

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

(and can't post for 29 days!)

Making constitutional arguments to justify forcefully deposing an elected president is exactly what happened in Honduras, and the Obama administration also rushed to ratify it. This was before the coup government created conditions which turned Honduras into the murder capital of the world. Something this thread should seriously consider.

Yinlock
Oct 22, 2008

uninterrupted posted:

It’s not illegitimate just because you don’t like this.

Why do Guaido supporters insist on relitigating what words mean every few days. It’s a coup, full stop.

It's easier to debate semantics than argue for why Guaido is better than Maduro(because as much as Maduro sucks Guaido is really, really bad)

Furia
Jul 26, 2015

Grimey Drawer

uninterrupted posted:

By cancer gun do you mean that thing you made up that no one said?

Maduro did. And you went and died on the hill that cancer can be inoculated by a virus so I’m sorry that I didn’t represent your already dumb loving opinion the correct way

PEW PEW PEW

uninterrupted posted:

Also “I’m taking your money until you install a western puppet who was never elected” is stealing.

“Western puppet” is a weird way of saying “legitimately elected government”

And before you go “:qq: There is no evidence Maduro wasn’t illegitimately elected :qq:”, yes there is. You posted the cancer gun website as rebuttal and have conspicuously not posted anything else to back that dumb loving claim up.

uninterrupted posted:

As usual, coup supporters bend over backwards for any right wing strongman who isn’t maduro.

At least you admit that Maduro is a right wing strongman. How does it feel to fly your true colours?

Furia
Jul 26, 2015

Grimey Drawer

Yinlock posted:

It's easier to debate semantics than argue for why Guaido is better than Maduro(because as much as Maduro sucks Guaido is really, really bad)

Good thing he is only an interim president. Also, citation sorely needed for this claim.

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there
So to answer my prior question, no, the thread is still infested with people who clearly know more about what Venezuelans need than the actual Venezuelans who have been posting here all the time.

Got it.

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

Presenting Nipples posted:

The US is willing to kill as many Venezuelans as it takes to get oil, but please continue to insist that they are interested in ‘restoring democracy’.

Your poorly informed outrage is woefully out of date.

FYI, the US is a net oil exporter and may have the largest oil reserves in the world with current extraction technology. Venezuela's oil industry being stripped for fast cash by Maduro's government and the resulting crash in production (and hike in global prices) has been beneficial to US oil interests who could not operate profitably at lower price points.

uninterrupted posted:

None of the things above happened, it’s completely illegal.

None of these things had to happen if Maduro wasn't legally elected as president in the first place.

Warbadger fucked around with this message at 17:15 on Jan 27, 2019

uninterrupted
Jun 20, 2011

Furia posted:

Maduro did. And you went and died on the hill that cancer can be inoculated by a virus so I’m sorry that I didn’t represent your already dumb loving opinion the correct way

PEW PEW PEW


“Western puppet” is a weird way of saying “legitimately elected government”

And before you go “:qq: There is no evidence Maduro wasn’t illegitimately elected :qq:”, yes there is. You posted the cancer gun website as rebuttal and have conspicuously not posted anything else to back that dumb loving claim up.


At least you admit that Maduro is a right wing strongman. How does it feel to fly your true colours?

You’re really intent on this cancer gun thing that you said that I never mention. For everyone else following along, furia posted the phrase a few pages back and has still not produced a quote where I or Venezuelanalysis (one of the few unbiased sources of Venezuelan news) supported it. In fact I still haven’t seen the Maduro quote.

Also there’s still no evidence the elections were rigged because they weren’t. It’s become fairly obvious the opposition has been in contact with the US for some time; they probably asked election observers to stay away to attempt to legitimize their fig leaf of a legal argument.

fnox
May 19, 2013



uninterrupted posted:

Venezuelanalysis (one of the few unbiased sources of Venezuelan news)

Ahahahahahahahahahaahhahaha

ronya
Nov 8, 2010

I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

The fact you even have to say it's arguably legal is an acknowledgement that the constitutionality of this takeover attempt is highly disputed. It's not the prerogative of foreign governments to try and rule lawyer the constitution of Venezuela for it. It is also certainly a form of violence to impose economic sanctions on the leaders and industries of a country with the intention to destabilize it and create crises like this sudden attempt to take power, which was again organized by the very country which imposed sanctions.

the current status quo of sanctions on leaders is precisely due to left-wingers successfully highlighting, for decades, that the existence of places for strongmen to squirrel all of their moolah is precisely what makes kleptocracy so attractive

the argument has always been that to allow these leaders to invest back in the West with their ill-gotten gains is complicity in their corruption, as a form of neo-imperialist extraction

unsurprisingly this entails a sense of what is or is not an ill-gotten gain!

ronya fucked around with this message at 17:08 on Jan 27, 2019

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

(and can't post for 29 days!)

Warbadger posted:

Your poorly informed outrage is woefully out of date.

FYI, the US is a net oil exporter and may have the largest oil reserves in the world with current extraction technology. Venezuela's oil industry being stripped for fast cash by Maduro's government and the resulting crash in production (and hike in global prices) has been beneficial to US oil interests who could not operate profitably at lower price points.

The United States just became an oil exporter for "the first time in 75 years," because the Trump administration is more interested in helping oil companies make a quick buck than maintaining strategic reserves.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-06/u-s-becomes-a-net-oil-exporter-for-the-first-time-in-75-years

Meanwhile American sanctions have caused a 50% decrease in Venezuelan oil production within the last year.

quote:

https://fair.org/home/wapo-trump-needs-to-destroy-venezuela-to-save-it/
Before the financial sanctions introduced by Trump, Venezuela’s oil production followed a similar pattern to Colombia’s: There was a fall in production following a drop in investment, due to the steep and sustained drop in oil prices that began near the end of 2014 and bottomed out in 2016.

However, after Trump imposed financial sanctions in August 2017, Venezuela’s oil production plummeted, while Colombia’s stabilized. The impact of US sanctions therefore became much worse, but also easier to calculate. It works out to $6 billion in lost revenue to Venezuela’s government in the first year after the sanctions alone, even if one assumes that Venezuela’s oil production would have continued to decline along its pre–financial sanctions path. That’s over 600 times more than the emergency aid the UN has just approved for Venezuela.

The “exception for transactions to purchase food and medicines” Taraciuk and Page pointed to in Trump’s financial sanctions is a laughable smokescreen. The sanctions deprive the Venezuelan government of billions of dollars to buy foods and medicine, regardless of whether there are dubious “exemptions” to illegal sanctions.

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

(and can't post for 29 days!)

ronya posted:

the current status quo of sanctions on leaders is precisely due to left-wingers successfully highlighting, for decades, that the existence of places for strongmen to squirrel all of their moolah is precisely what makes kleptocracy so attractive

the argument has always been that to allow these leaders to invest back in the West with their ill-gotten gains is complicity in their corruption, as a form of neo-imperialist extraction

unsurprisingly this entails a sense of what is or is not an ill-gotten gain!

It also means that foreign businesses aren't willing to do business with the country entirely, because of the risk that they could be implicated in sanctions that target particular leaders or industrialists. In addition to whatever corruption may be going on, the ultimate effect still means starving the country itself of revenues.

The argument of "just don't do business with sanctioned people" doesn't hold water, because what if the sanctioned individual works for say - a state oil company, or has a monopoly on a vital industry? Leopoldo Lopez is the president of Empresa Polar, which has a near monopoly on particular foodstuffs. If sanctions were made that targeted Lopez, then it would be practically impossible to import those foods.

Pener Kropoopkin fucked around with this message at 17:16 on Jan 27, 2019

Furia
Jul 26, 2015

Grimey Drawer

uninterrupted posted:

one of the few unbiased sources of Venezuelan news

lmao

uninterrupted posted:

In fact I still haven’t seen the Maduro quote.

I don’t feel like I really have to you know? I’m not going to go through hours of Maduro speeches to find the exact snippet because a) I’m not doing your research for you, b) falling for that antivax tier bullshit on a base loving level says a lot about your intelligence and the credibility of VA and c) you’re not going to change your mind on the credibility of such a fucker moron claim

Furia
Jul 26, 2015

Grimey Drawer

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

Meanwhile American sanctions have caused a 50% decrease in Venezuelan oil production within the last year.

And how much lower were they before the sanctions since like 2003? Hint: you’re not gonna love the answer

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

(and can't post for 29 days!)

Furia posted:

And how much lower were they before the sanctions since like 2003? Hint: you’re not gonna love the answer

There's a chart that graphs that since 2013 in the article.

Mean Baby
May 28, 2005

Warbadger posted:

Your poorly informed outrage is woefully out of date.

FYI, the US is a net oil exporter and may have the largest oil reserves in the world with current extraction technology. Venezuela's oil industry being stripped for fast cash by Maduro's government and the resulting crash in production (and hike in global prices) has been beneficial to US oil interests who could not operate profitably at lower price points.

I understand that the US is a net oil exporter you dolt. That doesn’t mean the US corporations don’t want to control more of it, but please continue to insist that US actions in Venezuela are benign.

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

(and can't post for 29 days!)

If we want to see oil production charted over a much longer time we can look at the EIA.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=35312



You can see that there wasn't much change in overall production through Maduro's administration until the effects of the Saudi Oil glut really hit, with the chart cutting off before the imposition of American sanctions on Venezuelan state oil.

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

The United States just became an oil exporter for "the first time in 75 years," because the Trump administration is more interested in helping oil companies make a quick buck than maintaining strategic reserves.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-06/u-s-becomes-a-net-oil-exporter-for-the-first-time-in-75-years

Meanwhile American sanctions have caused a 50% decrease in Venezuelan oil production within the last year.

You are hilariously incorrect. US oil production has been ramping up quickly for the last two decades in response to high oil prices making more expensive forms of extraction profitable and the methods of extraction of said oil becoming more mature and less expensive. The US is sitting on huge amounts of oil that simply could not be extracted at profit while easier/cheaper to extract oil kept prices low. This is how oil reserves work and also likely to be why KSA has been trying to keep prices low. US production recently surpassed US demand and made the US a next exporter, which is what your source is talking about (and not the thing you are saying).

Which sanctions do you think impact Venezuelan oil exports, exactly? Keep in mind all Venezuelan oil has been and continues to be refined in the US.

Presenting Nipples posted:

I understand that the US is a net oil exporter you dolt. That doesn’t mean the US corporations don’t want to control more of it, but please continue to insist that US actions in Venezuela are benign.

Then you should understand how stupid the thing you said is. Why, in your mind, would US oil companies want to control Venezuela's oil reserves and how would they accomplish this here in reality? Keep in mind a large chunk of the Venezuelan state's oil interests have already been sold to Russian and Chinese companies and US oil companies already make a buck off refining the oil.

Warbadger fucked around with this message at 17:35 on Jan 27, 2019

Furia
Jul 26, 2015

Grimey Drawer

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

There's a chart that graphs that since 2013 in the article.



Right, and the question I asked you?

Perhaps more relevantly and unless something changed, why not just sell to Russia and China? What happened to *~solidarity~*?

And why is Maduro even still selling to the yanki empire anyways? All you’re doing is convincing me he should be guillotined as a collaborator at this point

e: too late on the first question

fnox
May 19, 2013



Pener Kropoopkin posted:

There's a chart that graphs that since 2013 in the article.

What's the current poverty rate, by the way, now that we're showing charts?

Idk what's up with that chart but it's not plotted correctly. It actually looks like this:



That big dip in 2014 was when the prices dropped dramatically. As you can see, every year of the Maduro presidency has resulted in lower and lower production.

This is what the price of crude looks like during the same time interval:

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

(and can't post for 29 days!)

Warbadger posted:

You are hilariously incorrect. US oil production has been ramping up quickly for the last 15 years in response to high oil prices making more expensive forms of extraction profitable. US production recently surpassed US demand and made the US a next exporter, which is what your source is talking about (and not the thing you are saying).

Which sanctions do you think impact Venezuelan oil exports, exactly? Keep in mind all Venezuelan oil has been and continues to be refined in the US.

US oil production took a big hit during the Saudi oil glut, because it pre-empted the development of shale oil exploitation in the US & Canada. That's why the US *only* became a net exporter a month ago.

The sanctions impacting Venezuelan exports are literally sanctions targeting deals done with CITGO. American imports of oil are excepted from these sanctions, but all other business - including deals which would help continue the operations of oil extraction aren't.


Furia posted:

Right, and the question I asked you?

Perhaps more relevantly and unless something changed, why not just sell to Russia and China? What happened to *~solidarity~*?

And why is Maduro even still selling to the yanki empire anyways? All you’re doing is convincing me he should be guillotined as a collaborator at this point

e: too late on the first question

Oil has a particular mineral composition that varies from region to region, which means you need specialized refineries to refine particular types of oil. The United States has a long established refinement capacity for Venezuelan oil, and it would mean years of lost revenues to refuse sales to the US while waiting for some other country to develop their own refining capacities.

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there

uninterrupted posted:

Also there’s still no evidence the elections were rigged because they weren’t.

I'm just quoting this to admire it.

fnox
May 19, 2013



Pener Kropoopkin posted:

The sanctions impacting Venezuelan exports are literally sanctions targeting deals done with CITGO.

They literally aren't, other than the deal which would result in Russia taking ownership of CITGO.

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

(and can't post for 29 days!)

fnox posted:

What's the current poverty rate, by the way, now that we're showing charts?

Idk what's up with that chart but it's not plotted correctly. It actually looks like this:



That big dip in 2014 was when the prices dropped dramatically. As you can see, every year of the Maduro presidency has resulted in lower and lower production.

This is what the price of crude looks like during the same time interval:



Certainly. And we can also clearly see that production nosedives after the imposition of American sanctions in August 2017.

Furia
Jul 26, 2015

Grimey Drawer

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

Oil has a particular mineral composition that varies from region to region, which means you need specialized refineries to refine particular types of oil. The United States has a long established refinement capacity for Venezuelan oil, and it would mean years of lost revenues to refuse sales to the US while waiting for some other country to develop their own refining capacities.

Oh, word? Like I didn’t know that?

And Russia and China have never ever dealt with Venezuelan oil, huh? No chinese/russian interests here?

Interesting. Tell me more

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

(and can't post for 29 days!)

I seem to have gotten my wires crossed here. CITGO was specifically exempted from the 2017 sanctions, which were levied on Petróleos de Venezuela.

https://thehill.com/latino/347988-trump-slaps-new-sanctions-on-venezuela

quote:

President Trump levied a new set of economic sanctions on Venezuela Friday in an attempt to exclude the country’s government from U.S. financial markets

The new sanctions ban Americans from “participating in [President Nicolás] Maduro's liquidation of the Venezuelan economy,” said a senior administration official.

The sanctions cover an array of financial activities, banning Americans from acquiring new Venezuelan debt and Maduro's government from receiving profits from U.S.-based companies.

The new sanctions will block CITGO, an American oil company with more than $32 billion in yearly revenue, from sending profits to its corporate owner, state-owned Venezuelan oil company Petróleos de Venezuela.

But the sanctions avoided blocking secondary markets from trading Venezuelan securities and carved out licenses for U.S.-owned Venezuelan debt.

Furia posted:

Oh, word? Like I didn’t know that?

And Russia and China have never ever dealt with Venezuelan oil, huh? No chinese/russian interests here?

Interesting. Tell me more

Russia and China would still have to expand their refining capacity in order to make up for lost sales to the United States.

fnox
May 19, 2013



Pener Kropoopkin posted:

Certainly. And we can also clearly see that production nosedives after the imposition of American sanctions in August 2017.

You're mistaking the sanction that was imposed May 2018 with that one. They're not the same. That one came in place to prevent Goldman Sachs from buying any more PDVSA bonds. You're supposed to be against that, that was literally Maduro selling off our future to Wall Street capitalists.

By the way, they got paid, lol. Maduro may have defaulted on other debt but definitely not this one.

fnox fucked around with this message at 17:42 on Jan 27, 2019

Furia
Jul 26, 2015

Grimey Drawer

fnox posted:

You're mistaking the sanction that was imposed May 2018 with that one. They're not the same. That one came in place to prevent Goldman Sachs from buying any more PDVSA bonds. You're supposed to be against that, that was literally Maduro selling off our future to Wall Street capitalists.

Illegaly, we should add. Issuing bonds illegally.

Dreylad
Jun 19, 2001
Reading about recent Venezuelan history and there's no way in hell Leopold Lopez should be allowed to ever have any access to power, holy poo poo what a maniac

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

US oil production took a big hit during the Saudi oil glut, because it pre-empted the development of shale oil exploitation in the US & Canada. That's why the US *only* became a net exporter a month ago.

The sanctions impacting Venezuelan exports are literally sanctions targeting deals done with CITGO. American imports of oil are excepted from these sanctions, but all other business - including deals which would help continue the operations of oil extraction aren't.


Oil has a particular mineral composition that varies from region to region, which means you need specialized refineries to refine particular types of oil. The United States has a long established refinement capacity for Venezuelan oil, and it would mean years of lost revenues to refuse sales to the US while waiting for some other country to develop their own refining capacities.

In took decades of growth to get to the point of being a net exporter. Venezuelan production of cheap oil dropping like a rock as the extraction and transportation infrastructure fell apart in Venezuela has driven oil prices up globally and made US oil production more competitive and profitable. Venezuelan fields ramping production back up will hurt the less profitable US oil interests in the same way the KSA ramping up production - do you understand that?

I asked for the specific sanctions you think are impacting Venezuelan oil exports. This should not be hard!

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fnox
May 19, 2013



Dreylad posted:

Reading about recent Venezuelan history and there's no way in hell Leopold Lopez should be allowed to ever have any access to power, holy poo poo what a maniac

Did you read that in the most unbiased source of Venezuelan news, Venezuelanalysis dot com?

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