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Truga posted:To save Venezuela, first, you must finish the revolution Chavez's goons failed to. Venezuela is a failed capitalist state with a few social programs that have failed and are going to keep failing because capital will never get behind them. I mean yeah if they'd actually loving run the means of production for the people for once now that most of it was nationalized, that'd be a major plus. Sad that Maduro's government has been utterly uninterested in accomplishing it. It's all especially galling because Cuba's right over there doing far better despite all the additional stuff racked against it, you know? Discendo Vox posted:"right wing death squads" aren't the sole alternative outcome. It's not a binary situation, no matter how much you present it as such. The right wing death squads have been there for years - Maduro's armed paramilitaries.
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Feb 13, 2019 03:50
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Discendo Vox posted:We already discussed the problems with that poll the first time you posted it. I don't see any refutation of the polling or its methodology in the past few pages, other than "we don't like it because its maduro propaganda"
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Feb 13, 2019 03:50
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CAPS LOCK BROKEN posted:This is a very disingenuous point to make. Polling shows that 57% of the country considers maduro to be the legitimate president while only 22% back guaido. Presumably that 57% exercises their agency by telling America to keep its hands off venezuela? Did you figure out who paid for that poll yet?
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Feb 13, 2019 04:01
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brugroffil posted:Is there a poll or survey that shows Guaidó with majority or plurality support over Maduro? This one came out last month: https://www.lapatilla.com/2019/01/26/83-7-de-los-venezolanos-reconocen-a-guaido-como-el-presidente-legitimo-de-venezuela-flash-meganalisis/ quote:83.7% * of Venezuelans recognize "Guaidó as the legitimate President of Venezuela", This is reflected in the flash study of public opinion of the Meganalisis company, which explains that when making the oath, which was the majority wish (81.4%) , the recognition went up by 2.3%. It is also difficult to assess the validity of this one. The guy who runs Meganálisis is named Ruben Chirino Madrid. Unlike Oscar Schemel who owns the polling firm hinterlaces responsible for Caps Lock's poll, he at least is not literally a politician with obvious conflicts of interests. Unfortunately his website does not have detailed methodologies either, but it at least does not have partisan political tracts. The lapatilla publication looks like it has an opposition partisan affiliation. I could find some interviews of Chirino where he talks about his polling, and he's found anti-Maduro results for a long time and that has been covered by the opposition. With a brief look I was not able to identify any strong indicators that he or his firm has a significant partisan affiliation. Unfortunately I'm not sure I would trust any polling coming out of Venezuela right now. Even if Meganalisis is a totally serious firm publishing real research, I do not feel competent to assess their results.
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Feb 13, 2019 04:12
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Squalid posted:tl;dr you have to contextualize prejudice within the context of society to understand the political implications. that's what my link does.
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Feb 13, 2019 04:27
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Truga posted:To save Venezuela, first, you must finish the revolution Chavez's goons failed to. Venezuela is a failed capitalist state with a few social programs that have failed and are going to keep failing because capital will never get behind them. if we accept this framing (by calling Maduro and his cronies capitalists, which I'm fine with), it still involves the destruction of the PSUV as it currently exists which is sort of the problem facing any path to reform if the PSUV were willing to ditch its entire leadership and start fixing its fuckups it probably have done so by now, although I'm still holding out hope for a Zimbabwe option
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Feb 13, 2019 04:50
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Discendo Vox posted:"right wing death squads" aren't the sole alternative outcome. It's not a binary situation, no matter how much you present it as such. who do you put forward as the person in the opposition who is going to tell Elliot Abrams to gently caress off. it's not like he's an unknown, you know. anyone in Guaido's coalition could call him out for what he did, in the name of protecting the people of Venezuela from murderous predators out to profit off their suffering. and yet, oddly, these people who are definitely motivated by their abiding affection for Venezuelans have not said one word against their good friend holding the skull-fragment-encrusted sledgehammer. how are these facts reconciled, in your mind. perhaps they will find their voices later, after he already has School Of The Americas 2: Spring Legbreakers graduates on-site to "correct" people who demonstrate insufficient fealty?
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Feb 13, 2019 05:24
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GreyjoyBastard posted:if we accept this framing (by calling Maduro and his cronies capitalists, which I'm fine with), it still involves the destruction of the PSUV as it currently exists yah, psuv is bad.
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Feb 13, 2019 05:29
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Ruzihm posted:that's what my link does. Yes I read your quote it was interesting. I also went and read the entire paper it is from. Interesting too, though I preferred this explanation for the origin of political polarization and violence in Chavez's Venezuela. I think the Norden paper must have been somebody's thesis? It seems padded in sections. I also followed some of the citations in the section about racial issues. The argument that Cannon made about racialized rhetoric increasing during the 1990s was interesting and I kind of want to read his full paper. It makes sense though, in the United States nativist rhetoric in the media has been found to be positively correlated with economic recessions, so its not surprising to see similar patterns in other countries. My post was more addressed to your petty snipe "okay and actual Americans will tell you that racism is dead in america too but uh" Which is odd because I don't recall anyone ever saying any such thing. If you want to engage with us you should address our actual words, rather than knocking down these weak parodies. edit: oh I also liked these quotes from the Norden paper: quote:In a democratic context, the anger generated by frustrated or enhanced expectations may well be diffused if, first, the aggrieved are reasonably able to express their positions and hope for resolution through the democratic system; and secondly, if the government is generally recognized as legitimate. This leads to my third major point: political violence and instability are more likely when frustrated groups feel politically excluded, and/or when governments lose legitimacy. With respect to the first of these, in Albert Hirschman’s terms (1970), opposition groups without a ―voice‖ within the system may ultimately exit.‖ quote:In contrast to the scenarios discussed above, declining political legitimacy tends to result from more widespread government failures, particularly if a government seems unable to provide essential public goods such as security and economic stability. Responses to this may include popular insurrections or elite-organized military coup attempts. According to Juan Linz and Alfred Stepan, declining efficacy and effectiveness, and a corresponding loss of legitimacy, contributed significantly to the collapse of democratic regimes in the 1960s and 1970s throughout Latin America (Linz and Stepan, 1978:18-22). Governments may also initiate violence, however, either to maintain control, or to These two really make you  about recent events.quote:The Chávez administration, like its Punto Fijo predecessors, has relied on unsustainable oil revenues to fund its generous social spending. Yet other policies could help shield the government budget from some of the unpredictability of oil prices, while also building a stronger work force. At the same time, punitive policies have pushed investment out of the country and created potentially enduring new lines conflict. By deepening social cleavages, creating an atmosphere that excludes economic elites, allowing corruption to flourish, and distributing the costs of economic policies in a distinctly divisive manner, the government’s policies have lent themselves more to political violence than to peace and stability, despite temporarily ample oil wealth. Also its sad to see how excited and optimistic the author was for the potential of land reform to increase agricultural output. . . yah, that didn't really work out. Squalid fucked around with this message at 06:32 on Feb 13, 2019 |
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Feb 13, 2019 06:24
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Squalid posted:My post was more addressed to your petty snipe "okay and actual Americans will tell you that racism is dead in america too but uh" here is someone saying that anecdotes are sufficient to understand race relations Plastic_Gargoyle posted:It's been established multiple times upthread by actual Venezuelans that American perceptions of race don't make sense in Venezuela but thanks for trying to cram that in again. Ruzihm fucked around with this message at 07:01 on Feb 13, 2019 |
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Feb 13, 2019 06:59
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CAPS LOCK BROKEN posted:I don't see any refutation of the polling or its methodology in the past few pages, other than "we don't like it because its maduro propaganda" The poll which has Guaido ahead was done in landlines only and only half the regions. The one which has Maduro ahead includes door to door interviewing and it was nationally represented. It has the correct methodology for a country like Venezuela.
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Feb 13, 2019 07:04
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Discendo Vox posted:"right wing death squads" aren't the sole alternative outcome. It's not a binary situation, no matter how much you present it as such. "Noun. Verb. Elliot Abrams."
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Feb 13, 2019 07:25
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Ruzihm posted:here is someone saying that anecdotes are sufficient to understand race relations This is weird for you to say because that's obviously not what that quote says.
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Feb 13, 2019 07:37
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Feb 13, 2019 07:39
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Squalid posted:This is weird for you to say because that's obviously not what that quote says. Great, so then do you agree that country of residence alone does not make individual testimony an authority on how to understand race relations? Since no quotes were made, I can only assume these "posts by actual venezuelans" are just posts containing anecdotal testimony.
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Feb 13, 2019 07:59
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https://twitter.com/AJENews/status/1095587617138241536
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Feb 13, 2019 09:53
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Feb 13, 2019 10:28
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Guess someone got an offer of assistance from Mossad. Or he's just grateful Israel recognized him instead of Maduro. Not a good look either way, to say the least.
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Feb 13, 2019 10:37
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He is so utterly desperate.
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Feb 13, 2019 10:58
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patonthebach posted:I really appreciate all these cspam trolls that have no real knowledge of the subject come into this thread one or two at a time so they can be promptly told they are fucktards, then thrown out like the nameless bad guys at the start of a Bruce Lee movie. It owns that you think every time someone from cspam comes in here, you're just owning with facts and logic. Meanwhile, people in this thread are enthusiastic about the prospect of starving Venezuelans if it means getting rid of Maduro because "he will cause more damage in the long run".
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Feb 13, 2019 11:00
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They're already starving.
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Feb 13, 2019 11:10
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He does say he will reopen ties with Israel, but uh, the thing about 'being open to moving the embassy to Jerusalem" was just made up by the Al Jazeera reporter. His quote, to the Israeli newspaper, is ""I will declare the resumption of ties and the site of the embassy at the proper time," he said." That could mean literally anything. It could mean Jerusalem, but it could mean that their old embassy in Tel Aviv is a decrepit death-trap since it has been closed for 10 years so they'd need to find a new building. I mean, for gently caress's sake that's just not an honest headline.
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Feb 13, 2019 12:14
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Rust Martialis posted:They're already starving. Embargoes can make it worse. They're tactically and morally wrong. They're tactically wrong because even if Maduro is seven Hitlers, sanctions allows him to shift the blame for starvation from his own policies to the US's sanctions. I don't know if actual Chavistas are making the argument that starvation and inflation are the US's fault, but I'm guessing they are. If they aren't, Maduro is really bad at this propaganda thing. The longer sanctions go on, the harder it gets toremember a time from before the sanctions. Even accepting arguendo that starving civilians now can ever be okay to prevent a speculative amount of death caused by Maduro in the future, there's no reason to think it would do anything but further entrench a leader whose politics are already based in resisting the malignance of outside western influence. On top of this, embargoes are tactically wrong because they hit the people the US nominally wants to support the hardest. If we assume that Maduro is infinitely corrupt and thus infinitely deserving of overthrow, he will use all resources that enter Venezuela to aggrandize himself, by directing them to reward supporters and withholding them to starve dissenters. You can't starve him out before starving out the people you're hoping will oppose him first. The only way it isn't the US starving the people who they hope will overthrow Maduro is if Maduro isn't as corrupt or as powerful as the embargoers claim. Embargoes are morally wrong because they're starving civilians even more. We're done with the arguendo poo poo, this is Kissenger-grade garbage. Isn't starving civilians why Maduro is supposed to be a bad leader in the first place? What's the moral number of civilians to kill now in order to prevent pain later? What gives you the moral authority as an outsider to determine that for Venezuela? Your argument is both counterproductive and deeply evil in a way that no post from a chauvinist tankie stroking himself raw over how many Venezuelans Abrams is gonna kill can ever approach. A tankie is just a bad poster, while your dumb and wrong rhetoric has a sledgehammer behind it. Cease to Hope fucked around with this message at 12:47 on Feb 13, 2019 |
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Feb 13, 2019 12:42
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Cease to Hope posted:Embargoes are morally wrong because they're starving civilians even more. We're done with the arguendo poo poo, this is Kissenger-grade garbage. Isn't starving civilians why Maduro is supposed to be a bad leader in the first place? What's the moral number of civilians to kill now in order to prevent pain later? What gives you the moral authority as an outsider to determine that for Venezuela? While I agree with you about sanctions (except the targeted ones; Chuck seems surprisingly credulous for the argument that 'if you let corrupt people steal enough they'll eventually get tired of stealing!!'), the question is not JUST sanctions: The US for years has been the active #1 supporter of the Maduro regime, because nearly all of the cash money Maduro gets is directly from US citizens filling up their cars at Citgo. At some point, you can say "this is enough I'm not supporting your corrupt-rear end regime and we're not permitting Citgo gas anymore in our country". How is this evil? Anyone else can still buy Citgo gas, but the US isn't going to be the one responsible for shutting them down. (I know the newest sanctions go beyond this, e.g. preventing the sale of diluents to Venezuela, but prior to 2 months ago there were no sanctions that even remotely approached an economic blockade). Why is the US morally obligated to buy Venezuelan oil? So is like the BDS movement against Israel wrong, because if it actually worked and 100% crashed Israel's economy, little settler children will starve? If you are subscribing as a Patreon to some YouTube schmuck and they start saying racist things on every video, are you suddenly culpable for their death when you withdraw your subscription because they can't use your money to buy food anymore and they don't want to get on food stamps or get another job? This isn't a good analogy because Venezuela is not just one person and obviously tons of individual people want the food and would love to work, but the PSUV says "no, you can't accept food stamps and you also can't get another job." A blockade is evil, but saying "we don't want to do business with you anymore, we're not buying stuff from you anymore" and then watching through binoculars as the people starve because no one wants to farm and they've barricaded themselves up to reject your food aid is... I dunno, hosed up but honestly morally fairly neutral? Saladman fucked around with this message at 13:11 on Feb 13, 2019 |
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Feb 13, 2019 13:05
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Saladman posted:The US for years has been the active #1 supporter of the Maduro regime, because nearly all of the cash money Maduro gets is directly from US citizens filling up their cars at Citgo. At some point, you can say "this is enough I'm not supporting your corrupt-rear end regime and we're not permitting Citgo gas anymore in our country". How is this evil? Anyone else can still buy Citgo gas, but the US isn't going to be the one responsible for shutting them down. (I know the newest sanctions go beyond this, e.g. preventing the sale of diluents to Venezuela, but prior to 2 months ago there were no sanctions that even remotely approached an economic blockade). Why is the US morally obligated to buy Venezuelan oil? Because decades ago the US engineered a situation where Venezuela is reliant on access to the western markets in order to not starve, and did so to aggrandize itself and have a whip to hold over any uppity country that gets out of line. It's an exploitative relationship in the US's favor, but it's a relationship almost every country in the world is basically addicted to. Venezuela is especially hooked, because their economy is largely based around exporting raw resources to the US for processing before they can be sold, because the US the only country in the world with enough of the right type of processing capacity. If you're proposing that the US radically restructure its economy and politics to deal with Venezuela as a peer, then loving A right on, but embargoing Venezuela from the only game on earth is not that. If the BDS movement were targeting a starving Israel with a basket-case economy, and if Israel were wholly reliant on the US to continue to feed itself, it would be a considerably different issue. It's not at all comparable. Cease to Hope fucked around with this message at 13:35 on Feb 13, 2019 |
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Feb 13, 2019 13:24
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Why is anyone at this point surprised in any way that Guaido is getting support from Israel, come on.Plastic_Gargoyle posted:It's been established multiple times upthread by actual Venezuelans that American perceptions of race don't make sense in Venezuela but thanks for trying to cram that in again. Bob le Moche fucked around with this message at 13:37 on Feb 13, 2019 |
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Feb 13, 2019 13:33
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Cease to Hope posted:Because decades ago the US engineered a situation where Venezuela is reliant on access to the western markets in order to not starve, and did so to aggrandize itself and have a whip to hold over any uppity country that gets out of line. This didn't happen. No evil engineering was required to force Venezuela, an unambiguously western nation, to be primarily reliant on other western nations. Unless you're alleging the US stole the country physically from elsewhere and moved it to South America? Or are you alleging that Chavez and Maduro are US agents which is why Venezuela didn't magically switch to only trading with Asia?
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Feb 13, 2019 14:18
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fishmech posted:This didn't happen. No evil engineering was required to force Venezuela, an unambiguously western nation, to be primarily reliant on other western nations. the US is one of the main powers that engineered the current global economy, and that economy enriches the US and its peers at the expense of countries that aren't its peers (and sometimes even those that are). it's not something chavez or maduro could single-handedly change; it predates them significantly. you can argue that they should have done more to make venezuela self-sufficient rather than relying on the US economy, okay, but in the meantime it is a fact that venezuela relies on access to the western market to not starve, and the US can choke off venezuela's access to that market. the US has done it in the past to other countries, and is threatening to do it now. before you launch into your fishmechian arguments about whether the US already has done this to venezuela, understand that i was arguing that the US should not, in reply to someone stating that the US should. Cease to Hope fucked around with this message at 14:36 on Feb 13, 2019 |
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Feb 13, 2019 14:27
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Cease to Hope posted:the US is one of the main powers that engineered the current global economy, and that economy enriches the US and its peers at the expense of countries that aren't its peers (and sometimes even those that are). it's not something chavez or maduro could single-handedly change; it predates them significantly. you can argue that they should have done more to make venezuela self-sufficient rather than relying on the US economy, okay, but in the meantime it is a fact that venezuela relies on access to the western market to not starve, and the US can choke off venezuela's access to that market. the US has done it in the past to other countries, and is threatening to do it now. It's cool how you have nothing to back up your claim on Venezuela, and have back pedaled to "well the US is big" since your argument of "Venezuela, a western country located in South America only relies on other western countries due to evil US plots" is utterly indefensible. But I would like to hear your wacky idea on how Venezuela could ever be a primarily Eastern focused economy. Instead of more sophomoric ranting about how the poor plucky dictator should never be inconvenienced.
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Feb 13, 2019 14:35
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fishmech posted:It's cool how you have nothing to back up your claim on Venezuela, and have back pedaled to "well the US is big" since your argument of "Venezuela, a western country located in South America only relies on other western countries due to evil US plots" is utterly indefensible. are you seriously arguing that the US is not capable of embargoing Venezuela from the western international economy? gently caress off dude, you're wasting my time
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Feb 13, 2019 14:41
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Looks like China might be getting ready to throw Maduro under the bus; they've been holding talks with representatives of the opposition in the US. Guess they figure they're more likely to eventually see some kind of repayment from the opposition instead of Maduro and his cronies.
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Feb 13, 2019 14:42
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Cease to Hope posted:are you seriously arguing that the US is not capable of embargoing Venezuela from the western international economy? gently caress off dude, you're wasting my time They certainly didn't manage it with Cuba.
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Feb 13, 2019 14:42
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Rust Martialis posted:They're already starving. I thought you were in Venezuela. What happened? I am surprised you can even make it to the keyboard. Are you alright? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 13, 2019 14:53
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:They certainly didn't manage it with Cuba. are you saying that didn't embargo cuba, or that it didn't overthrow castro? because the us definitely did embargo cuba, with a blockade and everything.
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Feb 13, 2019 15:00
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Judakel posted:I thought you were in Venezuela. What happened? I am surprised you can even make it to the keyboard. Are you alright? No, I've never said I live in Venezuela. You have serious reading comprehension issues or you've mixed me up with someone else.
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Feb 13, 2019 15:07
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Cease to Hope posted:Embargoes can make it worse. They're tactically and morally wrong. So just to be clear here, you believe no matter the country or leadership, sanctions and embargoes are always wrong? So sanctions against North Korea are wrong? Wartime embargoes against nazi germany?
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Feb 13, 2019 15:09
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Cease to Hope posted:are you saying that didn't embargo cuba, or that it didn't overthrow castro? because the us definitely did embargo cuba, with a blockade and everything. The US embargo didn't cut them off from the western economy like you're suggesting a US blockade of Venezuela along the same lines would.
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Feb 13, 2019 15:17
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patonthebach posted:So just to be clear here, you believe no matter the country or leadership, sanctions and embargoes are always wrong? i don't think it matters if venezuela embargoes north korea or vice versa, and hitler died 17 years before maduro was born. north korea is instructive: embargoes did not bring down kim il-sung or his son or his grandson, but they sure did starve a whole lot of north korean people, despite chinese support. as for  , nazi germany was a military threat to its neighbors and was the US's peer in international politics. venezuela is neither of those things.Vincent Van Goatse posted:The US embargo didn't cut them off from the western economy like you're suggesting a US blockade of Venezuela along the same lines would. would it be at all instructive or applicable to venezuela in the present to talk about the us blockade of cuba circa 1962, before the fall of the warsaw pact? in any event, the embargo still managed to starve a whole lot of cubans without overthrowing castro. Cease to Hope fucked around with this message at 15:27 on Feb 13, 2019 |
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Feb 13, 2019 15:19
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:The US embargo didn't cut them off from the western economy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_embargo_against_Cuba#Details_of_Cuban_embargo Is that so, because the US sure did try to do that. I'm sure you can find endless details on the pressure exerted by the US on western companies that continued trading with Cuba.
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Feb 13, 2019 15:23
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Trying is not the same as succeeding. Any hypothetical American Cuba-style embargo of Venezuela will in all likelihood be much more akin to the last few years of the Cuba embargo than the same embargo at the height of the Cold War.
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Feb 13, 2019 15:36
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