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Condiv posted:i already told you that the US didn't just soft-peddle, but backed the coup by helping legitimize it. pushing elections that were under control of the military coup government and were widely denounced, pushing recognition of the coup government to normalize the honduran situation, etc. Yeah, and you want the US to help legitimize Maduro by recognizing his regime as legitimate. Unless you now think the US calls stating that they consider Maduro to be beyond the pale to be acceptable? Studiously remaining neutral in official pronouncements won't fly as all their correspondence will be pored over then and later and they will be judged on that instead. Condiv posted:to answer your question first, if trump said the sky was blue I would double check to make sure it wasn't red now. as for the opposition not being a US coup, thats incredibly unlikely considering how guaido appeared, declared himself the legitimate president, and the trump admin immediately recognized him as the legitimate president. i mean, come on Guaido only "appeared" suddenly to your eyes because that's when he entered your awareness. He had an existence before Trump's pronouncement. It is also utterly unsurprising that Trump reflexively supports anyone anti-Maduro. It is as surprising as Trump recognizing him and, in an incredibly unlikely coincidence, this entire thread being brigaded by people to oppose anything Trump expressed any approval of. [edit] And bringing us back to one of the central points of truth in this world that anything Trump touches turns to poison. Munin fucked around with this message at 05:44 on Feb 19, 2019 |
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Feb 19, 2019 05:39
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Squalid posted:Could you expand on the relationship between the 2009 Honduran crisis and the refugee flows? I was under the impression out migration was driven more by gang violence there than strictly political or state repression. Frankly, my statistical grasp on this is limited and my view tainted by a lot of the reporting into the origins of the refugee caravans that Trump was hating on. I also should have called out Nicaragua and Guatemala. Also, it is less directly tied to the 2009 coup and much more with the president who got elected after it and his rough handling of the constitution, the electoral process and ultimately any opposition to his regime. Gang violence is probably the bigger regional driver (one of the reasons why the Trump administration moved to get it removed as an asylum criteria) but I don't want to give the political violence a pass. How do you see things since it sounds like you might know more about the overall regional situation than me. Could you pass me links to the posts/material? Feel free to PM if you have plat.
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Feb 19, 2019 05:51
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Condiv posted:as for the opposition not being a US coup, thats incredibly unlikely considering how guaido appeared, declared himself the legitimate president, and the trump admin immediately recognized him as the legitimate president. i mean, come on Discendo Vox posted:Are you solipsistic? Guaidó didn't "appear", he was ]elected in 2015. Munin posted:Guaido only "appeared" suddenly to your eyes because that's when he entered your awareness. He had an existence before Trump's pronouncement. so do you guys actually not understand what condiv is saying, or just being actively dishonest for pretend internet discussion points? please advise Concerned Citizen fucked around with this message at 05:56 on Feb 19, 2019 |
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Feb 19, 2019 05:52
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Yes he was recognized by Trump due to being in talks with the US government for recognition? Along with a number of European countries. Did you really think he would just come out of nowhere without trying to gain support from other countries with influence before actually going through with it? It's not like Maduro or the PSUV care what the National Assembly itself can do anymore due to effectively neutering it.
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Feb 19, 2019 05:58
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Concerned Citizen posted:so do you guys actually not understand what condiv is saying, or just being actively dishonest for pretend internet discussion points? please advise What a helpful punctuation to that involved debate. Bravo!
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Feb 19, 2019 06:03
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ChaseSP posted:Yes he was recognized by Trump due to being in talks with the US government for recognition? Along with a number of European countries. Did you really think he would just come out of nowhere without trying to gain support from other countries with influence before actually going through with it? It's not like Maduro or the PSUV care what the National Assembly itself can do anymore due to effectively neutering it. i mean, pence called guaido and pledged us backing if he declared himself president. the us was not a passive bystander in the situation - they actively encouraged and pledged to support the move. it's extremely likely that without us backing, this would not have happened.
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Feb 19, 2019 06:04
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Yes because Trump dislikes Maduro, and despite Trumps constantly bungling the US is still a world power with a large degree of influence. Sure as hell hate that this happened during his term though.
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Feb 19, 2019 06:05
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Munin posted:Frankly, my statistical grasp on this is limited and my view tainted by a lot of the reporting into the origins of the refugee caravans that Trump was hating on. I also should have called out Nicaragua and Guatemala. Also, it is less directly tied to the 2009 coup and much more with the president who got elected after it and his rough handling of the constitution, the electoral process and ultimately any opposition to his regime. No no I know very little about El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala, which are the major sources of the refugees entering the US through the southern border. Nicaragua has started producing political refugees since last year, but the scale of conflict in that country is still dramatically smaller than in its northern neighbors. I really hoped you had more detail. I did read [url=https://www.opendemocracy.net/david-mattingly/quiet-coup-that-could-devastate-human-rights-in-guatemala]this article about an ongoing political crisis in Guatemala that was very interesting and disturbing. I think I got it from Pener kropotkin or someone. There are some parallels to this situation with the way Chavez consolidated power around himself in Venezuela, though not very directly. There's certainly a connection between the gang violence that is ravaging central america and political violence, but it is hard to describe and harder still to imagine a solution.
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Feb 19, 2019 06:16
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ChaseSP posted:Yes because Trump dislikes Maduro, and despite Trumps constantly bungling the US is still a world power with a large degree of influence. Sure as hell hate that this happened during his term though. Yeah, US imperialism is much better when it happens under democrats.
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Feb 19, 2019 07:30
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Sure as hell isn't the US only supporting Guaido right now, but I'm sure you'll continue to ignore that. Unless you really think people in europe will gladly march in step behind trump for...what benefits?
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Feb 19, 2019 07:36
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ChaseSP posted:Sure as hell isn't the US only supporting Guaido right now, but I'm sure you'll continue to ignore that. Unless you really think people in europe will gladly march in step behind trump for...what benefits? How many major player European countries have seized assets for "safekeeping" for Venezuela at this point? Four?
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Feb 19, 2019 07:43
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Squalid posted:No no I know very little about El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala, which are the major sources of the refugees entering the US through the southern border. Nicaragua has started producing political refugees since last year, but the scale of conflict in that country is still dramatically smaller than in its northern neighbors. I really hoped you had more detail. I had not been following that and bloody hell reading up on it, it seems like a fine mess. Claims of American imperialism, GOP support of the government, claims that the anti-corruption commission are Russian stooges by Rubio (who then moved to get their US funding cut), claims that they are US ones by Jimmy Morales. All this in one of the few countries which decided to follow Trumps move to change the location of their Embassy. He has already received far different treatment from the Trump administration since he is a good little Evangelical Christian. Someone somebody like Rubio and other members of the Republican establishment are happy to do business with. Same as Bolsanero and Duterte getting a warm reception. Munin fucked around with this message at 07:59 on Feb 19, 2019 |
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Feb 19, 2019 07:50
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Can we really stop this whole 'they're a member of the Socialist International' thing? It hardly means anything.
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Feb 19, 2019 08:39
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Pedro De Heredia posted:Can we really stop this whole 'they're a member of the Socialist International' thing? It hardly means anything. Of the 64 NA seats held by MUD, the 2nd and 3rd largest parties hold 29 seats and are members of Socialist International though. A bit of a far cry from those calling the opposition all right-wingers, surely?
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Feb 19, 2019 09:23
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ChaseSP posted:Second page, maybe you should actually read the op. And if you are going to say this was actually legitimate, then so is Guaido being declared president by the National Assembly via power given by the Venezuelan Constitution to deem the President unfit. The constitution is expressively clear in what situations a president can be declared to have abandoned their post, and 'we just don't like him' surprisingly isn't one
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Feb 19, 2019 09:46
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A Typical Goon posted:The constitution is expressively clear in what situations a president can be declared to have abandoned their post, and 'we just don't like him' surprisingly isn't one No, it says many ways they may become unavailable to serve, including that the National Assembly may declare "abandonment of the position" presumably by majority vote. One assumes Chavez never considered the possibility that the opposition would have a majority in the NA, or they would have made it a supermajority vote. There's no limitation I can see on the power of the NA to declare the post abandoned in that section. Is there one elsewhere in the Constitution? quote:Article 233: The President of the Republic shall become permanently unavailable to serve by reason of any of the following events: death; resignation; removal from office by decision of the Supreme Tribunal of Justice; permanent physical or mental disability certified by a medical board designated by the Supreme Tribunal of Justice with the approval of the National Assembly; abandonment of his position, duly declared by the National Assembly; and recall by popular vote.
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Feb 19, 2019 09:56
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Rust Martialis posted:Of the 64 NA seats held by MUD, the 2nd and 3rd largest parties hold 29 seats and are members of Socialist International though. A bit of a far cry from those calling the opposition all right-wingers, surely? Both arguments are a bit silly. Acting like the Venezuelan opposition is entirely composed of right-wing psychos is dumb, but so is acting like being a member of the Socialist International means any kind of commitment to anything resembling left-wing politics; it's equally as likely to mean austerity and neoliberalism these days. Latin American politics aren't neatly divided into 'left-wing governments for the people' and 'right-wing dictatorships for the ruling classes.' There are plenty of right-wing, center-right, and right-leaning parties that win elections and run countries, because 1) plenty of people in these countries (including working class people) are actually conservative or centrist, for all kinds of cultural, social, and historical reasons, and 2) people's views on parties are affected by how well they perform, not just their politics. It's OK to say "people are going to vote for center-right and right-leaning parties if they perceive that left-wing governments aren't actually beneficial to them despite their ostensible claim to represent their class interests." Happens all the time!
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Feb 19, 2019 10:38
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Rust Martialis posted:No, it says many ways they may become unavailable to serve, including that the National Assembly may declare "abandonment of the position" presumably by majority vote. It was declared to be against the constitution by the Supreme Court quote:Article 335: The Supreme Tribunal of Justice shall guarantee the supremacy and efficacy of constitutional rules and principles; it shall be the supreme and ultimate interpreter of the Constitution and shall see to the uniform interpretation and application of the same. Interpretations established by the Constitutional Division concerning the contents or scope of constitutional rules and principles are binding on the other division of the Supreme Tribunal of Justice and on all of the other courts of the Republic.
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Feb 19, 2019 10:42
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A Typical Goon posted:It was declared to be against the constitution by the Supreme Court Is that intra vires? As in, is it clear the Supreme Court has the power to declare it illegal? As a comparison, SCOTUS is the arbiter of constitutionality of laws and acts, but where something is deemed "a political question" within the powers of Congress, it's basically powerless. Likewise, while I can see the text in question says the decisions of the Supreme Court are binding on inferior courts, it doesn't touch directly on the ability of the Court to overrule a power of the NA. That may indeed be the case, but it's not clear from the cited text, to me. An added filip would be that the Supreme Court is arguably illegitimate itself, but you won't agree, so ignore it.
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Feb 19, 2019 11:07
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Pedro De Heredia posted:Both arguments are a bit silly. Acting like the Venezuelan opposition is entirely composed of right-wing psychos is dumb, but so is acting like being a member of the Socialist International means any kind of commitment to anything resembling left-wing politics; it's equally as likely to mean austerity and neoliberalism these days. I think the general issue itself is probably PJ and VP, the largest party and third largest parties in the MUD are economically liberal and that Guaido, Lopez and to a lesser extend Capriles are all pretty right-wing. UNT is "ordo liberal" as well. It sounds like Guaido, in particular, is going to be pushing pretty hard for Washington consensus style policy so it isn't really that crazy of a take. As you said, there are plenty of parties in the SI that are socialism in essentially name only, arguably the vast majority of them at this point. (That said, you can argue that is not surprising to see such a turn after the legacy of the PSUV.) Ardennes fucked around with this message at 11:56 on Feb 19, 2019 |
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Feb 19, 2019 11:53
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Rust Martialis posted:A bit of a far cry from those calling the opposition all right-wingers, surely? "Margaret Thatcher's greatest achievement" was in the Socialist International, but nevermind, keep shilling that poo poo to whoever is dumb enough to eat it.
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Feb 19, 2019 13:29
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sexpig by night posted:How many major player European countries have seized assets for "safekeeping" for Venezuela at this point? Four? Whats more realistic here? Countries are literally stealing all the gold from Venezuela and have no intention of returning it, or countries are trying to prevent Maduro from stealing from from his own country, something he has been doing for years?
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Feb 19, 2019 13:58
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patonthebach posted:Whats more realistic here? Countries are literally stealing all the gold from Venezuela and have no intention of returning it, or countries are trying to prevent Maduro from stealing from from his own country, something he has been doing for years? The first? To claim otherwise is ignorance of the history of paternalistic wealth extraction from the global south and the brutality of colonialism. It's not guaranteed to be the outcome, but it's certainly the most realistic pattern of behavior.
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Feb 19, 2019 14:21
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The EU will go where the money is, its what they've always done.thats why they just tsk-tsk Orban, despite him being a vile piece of poo poo. Anyway, here is a oldish article discussing a possible IMF bailout of venezuela https://www.businessinsider.com/imf-reportedly-discussing-possible-bailout-venezuela-2017-10 "Meanwhile, Douglas Rediker, a former US representative at the IMF, told the newspaper, "This is going to be Argentina meets Greece in terms of complexity." Venezuela is uber hosed.
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Feb 19, 2019 15:08
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patonthebach posted:Whats more realistic here? Countries are literally stealing all the gold from Venezuela and have no intention of returning it, or countries are trying to prevent Maduro from stealing from from his own country, something he has been doing for years? ...the...the first one...by far? Like, when in history has poo poo like this ever not been the first one? Were we trying to keep the Ayatollah from flushing all of Iran's money down a big toilet too or something?
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Feb 19, 2019 15:58
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ChaseSP posted:Sure as hell isn't the US only supporting Guaido right now, but I'm sure you'll continue to ignore that. Unless you really think people in europe will gladly march in step behind trump for...what benefits? A lot of them gladly marched in step behind Bush to illegally invade Iraq. Like actually the EU and NATO march in step behind the US' foreign policy all the time. For example why do you think marijuana is illegal in most countries in the world? It's because the USA wanted it to be. patonthebach posted:Whats more realistic here? Countries are literally stealing all the gold from Venezuela and have no intention of returning it, or countries are trying to prevent Maduro from stealing from from his own country, something he has been doing for years? uh yeah the first option.
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Feb 19, 2019 16:02
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A Typical Goon posted:It was declared to be against the constitution by the Supreme Court this is a bit misleading because the Supreme Court annulled every law passed by the National Assembly and delegated the power to rewrite the constitution entirely to Maduro. the Supreme Court was Maduro's tool to usurp the power of the branch of government that was supposed to be a check on him right after the first time his coalition lost an election there.
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Feb 19, 2019 16:03
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By the way according to their constitution the interim president named by the Assembly is supposed to hold elections within 30 days. Well he was appointed Jan 10. So... what's up?
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Feb 19, 2019 16:05
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Moridin920 posted:By the way according to their constitution the interim president named by the Assembly is supposed to hold elections within 30 days. Well he was appointed Jan 10. So... what's up? How is he supposed to do that when Maduro is still in power and won't step down or call real elections?
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Feb 19, 2019 16:09
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Maduro did a 180 last night when he announced that he was expecting Russian humanitarian aid to arrive in the country soon. For weeks now, Maduro has been saying that the humanitarian aid that the opposition is organizing would not be allowed into the country because "Venezuelans are not beggars", and because Venezuelans should work for everything that they need. What's remarkable is that in announcing the arrival of the Russian aid last night, Maduro used the term "humanitarian aid" after disparaging the concept for weeks: https://twitter.com/Gbastidas/status/1097843065107243010 A Typical Goon posted:It was declared to be against the constitution by the Supreme Court I've brought this up before, but it's worth repeating. The Supreme Court in Venezuela is not a legitimate legal authority. This is a fact. The PSUV appointed 13 new justices to the Supreme Court on the last days of its parliamentary majority in 2015 without any kind of oversight of vetting. One of the justices appointed was a sitting member of parliament for the PSUV. Three others had been open about their support for the PSUV. That's just a couple of examples. These people were hand-picked not because of their legal expertise, but because they would trip over themselves to justify everything the PSUV did and nullify everything that the opposition did. And that's exactly what they've done. Shrugging your shoulders and saying, "Sorry! That's just what the law says!" is how humanity's greatest crimes have been justified. Moridin920 posted:By the way according to their constitution the interim president named by the Assembly is supposed to hold elections within 30 days. Well he was appointed Jan 10. So... what's up? "What's up" is that the National Electoral Council is controlled by the PSUV and it will never call, organize or hold the election as long as its current executive remains in their positions.
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Feb 19, 2019 16:10
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Chuck Boone posted:Shrugging your shoulders and saying, "Sorry! That's just what the law says!" is how humanity's greatest crimes have been justified. hoo boy do I have bad news for you about the atrocity-justifying powers of "there's some people over there who look like they might lean to the left"
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Feb 19, 2019 16:15
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:hoo boy do I have bad news for you about the atrocity-justifying powers of "there's some people over there who look like they might lean to the left" I agree with you. But I don't think your observation nullifies mine. I think that both observations are true.
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Feb 19, 2019 16:19
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Condiv posted:that implication presumes that trump's not going to increase suffering in venezuela a poo poo ton more. he's already doing it before the coup's been successful and I have no reason to believe his coup is going to actually improve anything for venezuelans as opposed to making things worse like is usual for US backed coups It is funny that Trump is against "socialists" like Maduro because they disrespect the will of the people, ignore the constitution and the law, play havoc with the economy, and are authoritarian bullies. The pot calling the kettle black.
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Feb 19, 2019 16:22
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Neutrino posted:It is funny that Trump is against "socialists" like Maduro because they disrespect the will of the people, ignore the constitution and the law, play havoc with the economy, and are authoritarian bullies. The pot calling the kettle black. Looking back at Chavez and his anti media stint they should all eat at salt baes and be best buds. Also the Russians get it. Don’t politicize aid 
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Feb 19, 2019 16:26
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Shaocaholica posted:Also the Russians get it. Don’t politicize aid
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Feb 19, 2019 16:27
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Rust Martialis posted:No, it says many ways they may become unavailable to serve, including that the National Assembly may declare "abandonment of the position" presumably by majority vote.
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Feb 19, 2019 17:49
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Rust Martialis posted:No, it says many ways they may become unavailable to serve, including that the National Assembly may declare "abandonment of the position" presumably by majority vote. one assumes, and one presumes, because the alternative to those presumptions is having to call a spade a spade you're allowed to say "they're breaking the law, but the law is bullshit," you know. it's a significantly stronger position than There's No Rule That Says Venezuela's President Isn't Appointed By Donald Trump.
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Feb 19, 2019 17:54
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Again, the Venezuelan opposition exists and has agency independent of the United States and Donald Trump. This is not about the United States. All that the Venezuelan Constitution requires is a declaration by the National Assembly. It may also be helpful to review Article 222: quote:Article 222: The National Assembly shall be empowered to exercise its control function by means of the following mechanisms: parliamentary questions, investigations, questions, authorizations and parliament's approvals as provided for in this Constitution and by law, and any other mechanism that may be established by laws and their associated Regulations. In exercising parliamentary control, the National Assembly shall have the power to make a finding of political liability on the part of public officials and call on Citizen Power to initiate the appropriate action to enforce such liability. Citizen Power refers to oversight and authority entities appointed by the National Assembly.
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Feb 19, 2019 18:01
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https://twitter.com/aaronjmate/status/1097601566671015936
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Feb 19, 2019 18:39
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Its interesting that most of the twitter journalists that are being posted in this thread are currently on a sponsored trip in Venezuela. Your last poster included.
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Feb 19, 2019 18:48
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