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Hey Chuck can we add to the OP that the Pro-coup forces support drinking poison and the anti US intervention forces don’t? I think it helps flesh out the positions of both sides.
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Mar 12, 2019 13:14
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Basically, a cholera outbreak is probably survivable by some people (it's got a 60% mortality rate, probably a little higher given the circumstances). Prolonged lack of access to water is definitely survivable by nobody. Yes, cholera can and will spread beyond the affected area, but will it cause more casualties than people dehydrating to death, attacking police who are preventing them getting at the cholera-water, and then getting cholera anyway when they break through the demoralised, dehydrated cops? That's much harder to make a case for.
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Mar 12, 2019 13:19
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Move on from this.
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Mar 12, 2019 13:19
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Condiv posted:we've been over this before. boiling and filtering water is not always enough to make it potable. that's why "Do not use" notices are a seperate thing from boil water notices. Im sure they will be glad to know that you have it covered. It is extremely rational and likely okay in the short term to drink boiled and filtered water of such in kind if it is the only kind you have access to. Possible heavy metal traces are a bitch after a while i guess but it kind of beats ~certain death~.
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Mar 12, 2019 13:21
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A lot of people in this thread don't seem to be acknowledging know you can get all off your water needs through food. Which is basically most food that aren't Doritos or some kind of specifically dehydrated prepared food. You literally do not need to drink water at all, because you can eat it. Many Americans live like this for better or worse. Is this seriously not common knowledge? Nobody is going to be dying through dehydration here if they're not also starving to death.
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Mar 12, 2019 13:23
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GoLambo posted:A lot of people in this thread don't seem to be acknowledging know you can get all off your water needs through food. Which is basically most food that aren't Doritos or some kind of specifically dehydrated prepared food. You literally do not need to drink water at all, because you can eat it. Many Americans live like this for better or worse. Is this seriously not common knowledge? Gosh, do we have some news for you!
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Mar 12, 2019 13:27
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beer_war posted:Presented without comment: That's some horrible horrible graphic design work
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Mar 12, 2019 13:37
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I haven't seen this video, but Luz Mely Reyes is claiming on Twitter that the government is blaming Luis Carlos for being part of the strike team that carried out the cybernetic and/or the electromagnetic attack against the country's electrical system. She's claiming that there's a video in which Luis Carlos is talking about disruptions to the electrical service that the regime has doctored to make it sound like he knew about the blackout in advance. Luis Carlos is married to Naky Soto, another Venezuelan journalist. Here she is in a video recorded during the overnight hours explaining the situation up to that point: https://twitter.com/LuzMelyReyes/status/1105405629240410112 quote:It's 4:17 AM on March 12. The SEBIN raid on my house, which was conducted with Luis Carlos present, is over. They brought him here in handcuffs. I'm joined by Rafael Uzcategui from PROVEA and Marco Ruiz from the National Syndicate of Press Workers [SNTP]. I'm asking you to join me this morning at 11:00 AM at the Public Ministry to demand the full release of Luis Carlos Diaz Vazquez, lawyer and human rights activist. I'll see you there at 11:00 AM. Luis Carlos was arrested by the SEBIN on his way back from work yesterday afternoon. He was disappeared for 8 hours. It's believed that he is in the SEBIN headquarters in Caracas now. This report about a supposed incriminating video doesn't surprise me because releasing edited videos of people seemingly admitting to crimes is the regime's MO. Most recently they did it to Juan Requesens. It was just a few days ago that two other journalists, Cody Weddle and Carlos Camacho, were arrested for what might have been the same reason: an attempt to implicate them in the blackout. Weddle said upon his return to the United States that the authorities recorded him and that "it was very clear that they wanted me to say... political things". Weddle warned that the government might release an edited video of him "to make it seem like I said something I really didn't say". If I were a betting man I'd say that the authorities arrested Weddle to try to pin all of this on him. They picked him because he's American and the link to the US government would have been easier to make, but overplayed their hand and had to let him go once international pressure rose high enough. The authorities still need a scapegoat to build their narrative, so now they're going for easier targets: Venezuelans journalists. Also, El Pitazo has a really good article here on why the government's sabotage theory is nonsense. It's got lots of statistics and commentary from electrical engineers and other experts. I don't have time to translate it right now, but I'm linking it here for anyone else who speaks Spanish and for the rest to try their luck with Google Translate. El Pitazo's been doing a great job at dismantling the government's version of events. Here's another article where it asked Jesus Olivares, the former VP of a Caracas electrical utility company (Distribucion de la Electricidad de Caracas) about why electrical facilities seem to be blowing up recently: quote:The Humbolt substation probably hasn't had any maintenance in at least 10 year, and the insulating oil in the transformers must be in really bad shape. Given these circumstances, surcharges at the substations face failure conditions due to electrical arcs [which can] produce fires, which is what's happened.
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Mar 12, 2019 13:43
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edit: didnt see the mods post on the last page
patonthebach fucked around with this message at 14:39 on Mar 12, 2019 |
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Mar 12, 2019 14:09
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GoLambo posted:A lot of people in this thread don't seem to be acknowledging know you can get all off your water needs through food. Which is basically most food that aren't Doritos or some kind of specifically dehydrated prepared food. You literally do not need to drink water at all, because you can eat it. Many Americans live like this for better or worse. Is this seriously not common knowledge? Take a look at how much hydration is in the foodstuffs the people used to get in the CLAP boxes. These people aren't just having JELLO and watermelon all day.
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Mar 12, 2019 14:13
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I don't think Condiv is saying that these people are idiots for trying to drink polluted water. It's a natural reaction when there is not other water available. He's just saying that while it's understandable that they want to drink polluted water that doesn't make it in any way helpful to the situation.
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Mar 12, 2019 14:18
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imagine stanning for US fascism so hard you're now arguing it's cool and good to drink poison and bad and wrong to stop people drinking poison lol
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Mar 12, 2019 14:19
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patonthebach posted:I'm not sure you get what is really going on there at all. Saying "dont use unsafe water for anything, even to help flush a toilet" might be sound advice for someone like you that lives in a rich country and you've had access to clean water all your life. You've always been able to just wait and get fresh water. This isn't an option for the poor there right now. The fresh water they need might never come. If you have only had sips of water in days, you will get desperate. These aren't dumb people. They are hopeless and just will take whatever they can get at this point. a mod literally said to stop this discussion if you want to discuss this further you can come to c-spam
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Mar 12, 2019 14:30
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Editorial a couple of days ago from a Venezuelan reporter that touches on what it is like without power in Venezuela https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/03/10/venezuela-is-truly-verge-collapse/?utm_term=.f536dfb3e461 quote:The economy has simply stopped operating. Due to hyperinflation, the country is chronically low on paper money: The Venezuelan central bank just can’t keep up with the demand for bills of larger and larger denominations. As a result, the vast bulk of payments are made electronically — point-of-sale transactions using debit cards and Venmo-like bank transfers have been the only practical way to pay for things for years. With the power system out, you literally can’t access money. The only economic activity that can likely take place now is transactions in foreign currency: U.S. dollars, mostly, but also euros, Colombian pesos or whatever else is around. Most Venezuelans do not have access to foreign money. Work and school have been cancelled since Friday
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Mar 12, 2019 14:35
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There's reports of widespread looting in Maracaibo, the second largest city in the country. The lights came back on briefly there yesterday, for less than an hour, and then went back out. That brief window aside, they've been without power for over 100 hours now. Reports from the rest of the country are hard to come by because they're mostly isolated and travel through Venezuela is difficult even under normal circumstances due to how dangerous roads are. However, it's important to remember the blackout is still ongoing with no apparent end in sight. On another note, SEBIN officers apparently told Luis Carlos' wife not to make too much of a fuss when they visited her in the middle of the night, and that she'd be detained too if she weren't a cancer patient. These pieces of poo poo are as classy as always. https://twitter.com/Gbastidas/status/1105462445705957379 Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 14:55 on Mar 12, 2019 |
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Mar 12, 2019 14:51
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I'm not sure if the U.S. pull-out of all of its remaining staff out of the country was posted here already, but the Venezuelan government is claiming that they kicked out the U.S. staff and that the State Department is trying to play it off like it was their choice. This is Minister of Foreign Affairs Jorge Arreaza: https://twitter.com/jaarreaza/status/1105454380248154114 https://twitter.com/jaarreaza/status/1105470427739156480 EDIT: I think someone linked this earlier, but here's my translation of Maduro explaining what's going on from his speech last night. Here is the speech (translation starting at about 7:35): https://twitter.com/NicolasMaduro/status/1105272338478702592 quote:Maduro: Venezuela is probably the first country in the world to suffer from U.S. cybernetic technology to attack an electrical system. We're now in an advanced phase, liberating the brain [sic], restoring the whole map of the brain [sic]. The time will come when we will show this to you. Compatriots, the second method of attack was electromagnetic. Mobile machines that emit electromagnetic signals, and on the transmission lines--those big cables you see from the highway, with giant towers--they put them there on the towers, the big cables. The emit, uhh, elevated electromagnetic frequencies and this knocks the transmission offline. And when you knock the transmission offline--when the electric highway of the country is undergoing the normalization process--they interrupt and reverse the recovery process. This is what they've done (...) The third method of attack was physical, as I call it. Burning. Explosions of different systems [sic]. The direct burning of substations. Burning stations. As happened yesterday night. As if it weren't clear already, this is the government's claim: 1) Cyber attack knocked off Guri, and 2) Electromagnetic attack carried out by "mobile machines" caused the subsequent blackouts as the recovery was underway, and 3) saboteurs caused the fires that we've been seeing at substations. He does not mention anything about fuel, sanctions, or plants not being able to come online due to lack of fuel from sanctions. There is absolutely no mention of this. It was 1) an initial cyber attack, 2) subsequent electromagnetic attacks, and 3) physical acts of sabotage. There has been zero evidence of any of this provided so far. There's a myriad of questions about each one of these three claims. How exactly did the "cybernetic" attack at Gui take place? How were the attackers able to access the Guri system? Is the system even connected to the internet? If so, why? If not, how did the attackers gain physical access to the site? If attackers gained physical access to the site, there must be evidence of this--where is it? Are these suspects? What is the evidence that the plant's computer system was attacked? Who made this determination, and how? How do we know that "mobile machines" carried out electromagnetic attacks? Where these attacks detected? Were the machines themselves detected? How did the machines get into the country? Or were they built in Venezuela? If so, how? What do these machines look like exactly, and how do they operate? Who operated them? How many machines were there, and were did they conduct their attacks, and when? Where is the evidence that the fires at the substations were caused by sabotage and not, say, because of the reasons that experts have claimed that these fires are caused (poor maintenance, electrical arcs, etc.)? Which substations were hit, exactly? Who are the suspects? What was the method of the sabotage? Were explosives planted at these installations and then detonated? Is so, what kinds of explosives were used, and how was their use determined? If it wasn't explosives, how did the individuals gain access to these sites, given not only the militarization of the electrical system in 2013 but also what one could reasonably assume to be the increased military presence at these sites given the ongoing attack? Also, I'm far from the first one to point this out, but Maduro looks and sounds nervous as hell here. I don't think I've ever seen him like this. Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 15:28 on Mar 12, 2019 |
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Mar 12, 2019 15:08
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These posts lend credence to my “worried about staff being seized and used for propaganda “ theory.
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Mar 12, 2019 15:15
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Discendo Vox posted:These posts lend credence to my “worried about staff being seized and used for propaganda “ theory.
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Mar 12, 2019 15:23
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Chuck Boone posted:There has been zero evidence of any of this provided so far. There's a myriad of questions about each one of these three claims. How exactly did the "cybernetic" attack at Gui take place? How were the attackers able to access the Guri system? Is the system even connected to the internet? If so, why? If not, how did the attackers gain physical access to the site? If attackers gained physical access to the site, there must be evidence of this--where is it? Are these suspects? What is the evidence that the plant's computer system was attacked? Who made this determination, and how? How do we know that "mobile machines" carried out electromagnetic attacks? Where these attacks detected? Were the machines themselves detected? How did the machines get into the country? Or were they built in Venezuela? If so, how? What do these machines look like exactly, and how do they operate? Who operated them? How many machines were there, and were did they conduct their attacks, and when? Where is the evidence that the fires at the substations were caused by sabotage and not, say, because of the reasons that experts have claimed that these fires are caused (poor maintenance, electrical arcs, etc.)? Which substations were hit, exactly? Who are the suspects? What was the method of the sabotage? Were explosives planted at these installations and then detonated? Is so, what kinds of explosives were used, and how was their use determined? If it wasn't explosives, how did the individuals gain access to these sites, given not only the militarization of the electrical system in 2013 but also what one could reasonably assume to be the increased military presence at these sites given the ongoing attack? I wouldn't expect these questions to be answered soon (if ever), even if Maduro's claims are true. Governments rarely release detailed in-depth info about foreign government attacks on critical infrastructure, and this is doubly true for cyberattacks. When the US government gets cyberattacked, the info it releases rarely goes much beyond "malware this sophisticated indicates this was done by a state actor, and here's the state we're gonna blame this time".
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Mar 12, 2019 16:02
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I'm (individually) unsurprised at a public release claiming that the power outages are the result of complex saboteur plots, and also unsurprised that the description of them is one that could be linguistically retrofit to specific and bizarre language that Maduro was using to describe this. But it's concerning that their assumed level of credible process needed in explaining the outages is so functionally low. You could easily grant step one is possible even understanding that catastrophic maintenance backlog, corruption based neglect, and brain drain are the most likely reasons why the power shortages accelerated to power failures. Step three is plainly bullshit. The substations are exploding because failed attempts at restoring functionality at the power production facility are really dangerous even for properly maintained equipment at substations, and these substations are not properly maintained.
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Mar 12, 2019 16:05
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It's important to remember when reading this sort of message in this context, especially the more loopy they seem, that a) you're not the target audience; the targets are domestic and regional populations, who have more obstacles to getting alternative information and have been marinating in lies for a long time. b) a part of the goal for some state propaganda systems, even internally, isn't just to spread consistent lies, but also to get the population to become doubtful, paranoid, relativistic and unable to engage in public information or discourse (this isn't a big one in the case of Venezuela; they don't have enough control). c) states that go all in on state domestic propaganda systems basically fry their own brains. Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 16:23 on Mar 12, 2019 |
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Mar 12, 2019 16:20
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I'm kinda curious, does Maduro's language sound as, well, let's say "eccentric", to Spanish speakers as Trump's sounds to English speakers? I'm not bilingual but I get the sense they both have a unique relationship with their native languages and I was curious if it's at all similar.
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Mar 12, 2019 16:20
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Not sure why it's an extraordinary stretch to say that there is a good likelihood that the US, a country known to have sabotaged infrastructure of governments they were trying to undermine, might have had a hand in sabotaging Venezuela's electrical grid. The fact that the system was poorly maintained, suffering occasional blackouts throughout the years and that the country lacked the skilled experts to deal with problems could have been a vulnerability that the US identified and seized upon. It is awfully convenient for the most catastrophic failure and prolonged outage ever to happen right during a regime change attempt. Maybe Maduro is simply terribly unlucky but I think there is plenty of room for suspicion.
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Mar 12, 2019 16:28
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Zidrooner posted:Not sure why it's an extraordinary stretch to say that there is a good likelihood that the US, a country known to have sabotaged infrastructure of governments they were trying to undermine, might have had a hand in sabotaging Venezuela's electrical grid. Because there's no actual evidence that's what happened?
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Mar 12, 2019 16:30
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Because there's no actual evidence that's what happened? People are acting like it's an absolute impossibility, but surely you must recognize that the motive exists, the precedent exists and the timing constitutes circumstantial evidence? So while this doesn't prove that's what happened, it does suggest that it isn't a totally far fetched paranoid delusion.
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Mar 12, 2019 16:37
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Zidrooner posted:Not sure why it's an extraordinary stretch to say that there is a good likelihood that the US, a country known to have sabotaged infrastructure of governments they were trying to undermine, might have had a hand in sabotaging Venezuela's electrical grid. The fact that the system was poorly maintained, suffering occasional blackouts throughout the years and that the country lacked the skilled experts to deal with problems could have been a vulnerability that the US identified and seized upon. It is awfully convenient for the most catastrophic failure and prolonged outage ever to happen right during a regime change attempt. Maybe Maduro is simply terribly unlucky but I think there is plenty of room for suspicion. Because it makes no loving sense? Read Chuck’s post above, there’s zero evidence of this actually happening in Venezuela, let alone anywhere ever. The most sophisticated cyberattack ever documented on real infrastructure was stuxnet and that was pretty limited and directed. If Maduro’s explanation makes even a lick of sense to you then I think you’ve rotted your brain with Tom Clancy novels. It’s a paranoid delusion and not even remotely in the US’s MO. This would be a huge crime against humanity if intentional and while the US has certainly done those, they tend to be targeted against people they don’t like, and not 100% of a country, especially considering there are a fair number of people in Venezuela friendly to US interests. It’s not DPRK. Taking down an entire country’s electrical grid would be a huge war crime that I don’t think the US would do, it’s like blowing up Mosul dam, which even ISIS didn’t do because it’s so atrocious. Ffs it’s amazing how many people on this forum think that if Putin trips and falls it was the CIA. The CIA are not literal gods, why do you think they’re so omnipotent. Saladman fucked around with this message at 16:48 on Mar 12, 2019 |
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Mar 12, 2019 16:42
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lol stuxnet ended up being found at a ton of places later, and there's still no real evidence usa/israel did it to target iran, what are you talking about
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Mar 12, 2019 16:44
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Because there's no actual evidence that's what happened? If we restricted discussion here to only things supported by actual evidence, then this thread would move a lot slower and there would be a lot less blame-slinging. Actually, on second thought, that sounds great. More discussion about the impacts of the power outages and other events, and less pretending we know what's going on behind closed doors and how it could be related to the giant overarching conspiracy to destroy Venezuela by whoever we hate? Sign me the gently caress up.
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Mar 12, 2019 16:44
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Zidrooner posted:Not sure why it's an extraordinary stretch to say that there is a good likelihood that the US, a country known to have sabotaged infrastructure of governments they were trying to undermine, might have had a hand in sabotaging Venezuela's electrical grid. As noted, I could easily grant that it's possible. However it's a stretch because the venezuelan system did not go from a situation of stable functionality to unexpected, abnormal nonfunctionality. It went from a situation of unstable, overloaded functionality to expected, consequential nonfunctionality. Everything we have to observe now, including statements from members of the government power monopoly (including ones who have been trying as hard as they can to keep the system from progressing to this point), to media of the failing power infrastructure, is consistent with that. It's unfortunately made more of a stretch as a consequence of Maduro's complete, obvious, and repeated fabrication of events making it so that his claims of foreign sabotage come with little inherent worth or credibility. He was going to blame foreign malevolence no matter if it turned out to be because of that or not. You would have to have some other way of making a verification of claims of sabotage at the Guri turbines, or some pretty serious receipts.
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Mar 12, 2019 16:45
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Because there's no actual evidence that's what happened? and it cannot be denied that the current narrative about what happened at El Mozote is -extremely- convenient for the forces opposing our local allies. as a result we have no choice but to disregard them as unsubstantiated fantasy. watching a liberal discourse premised around every possible data point being available for dissection from a dozen distinct angles poo poo itself and die in the presence of any kind of ambiguity is really loving bleak, i'm not going to lie
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Mar 12, 2019 16:48
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Zidrooner posted:Not sure why it's an extraordinary stretch to say that there is a good likelihood that the US, a country known to have sabotaged infrastructure of governments they were trying to undermine, might have had a hand in sabotaging Venezuela's electrical grid. The fact that the system was poorly maintained, suffering occasional blackouts throughout the years and that the country lacked the skilled experts to deal with problems could have been a vulnerability that the US identified and seized upon. It is awfully convenient for the most catastrophic failure and prolonged outage ever to happen right during a regime change attempt. Maybe Maduro is simply terribly unlucky but I think there is plenty of room for suspicion. Let's say you're playing poker and the guy across from you pushes all his chips onto the table, grins widely, and loudly proclaims he's got a hand full of aces. While it is technically possible he may not be lying, you also know he's been betting big on poo poo hands all night and also his eyes seem to be twitching and darting around a lot. That's basically the situation here. Sure, maybe it's possible the US was responsible, but there's absolutely no reason to consider the government's claims as fact considering A) reports from the ground that a brush fire and poor maintenance caused the outages, B) the administration's past claims of sabotage without evidence, or C) the long-standing reports of poor maintenance and upkeep of local infrastructure that indicated months and years ago that a blackout event of this magnitude was increasingly likely. So maybe that guy has pocket aces. Or maybe he's trying to bluff and save face as a catastrophe of his own making unfolds before him. Which do you think is more likely?
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Mar 12, 2019 16:49
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Brushfires causing an overheat condition followed by a local overload is something that happens all the time in areas prone to fires. There is absolutely no conspiracy required.
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Mar 12, 2019 16:54
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California, one of the richest states in the US, recently suffered a gigantic wildfire caused by overgrown foliage around a poorly-maintained transmission tower. Why is it so hard to believe similar circumstances could cause the blackouts in Venezuela? Why jump right to nefarious US spooks hacking the gibson?
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Mar 12, 2019 17:07
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Looks like Maduro has found the culprit. AP just sent out a blurb: CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — Venezuela's attorney general says opposition leader Juan Guaido under investigation for alleged attack on power grid.
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Mar 12, 2019 17:08
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Clearly it was Juan who helped smuggle in the secret EMP drones. I bet he'll be the final boss Maduro will have to face, maybe a cyber version/mech like in Wolfenstein 3D.Main Paineframe posted:I wouldn't expect these questions to be answered soon (if ever), even if Maduro's claims are true. Governments rarely release detailed in-depth info about foreign government attacks on critical infrastructure, and this is doubly true for cyberattacks. When the US government gets cyberattacked, the info it releases rarely goes much beyond "malware this sophisticated indicates this was done by a state actor, and here's the state we're gonna blame this time". Cicero fucked around with this message at 17:14 on Mar 12, 2019 |
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Mar 12, 2019 17:11
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The most Venezuelan option is that the US State Department planned and implemented a sophisticated, multi-pronged attack on the power grid, only to find it had already burned down due to lack of maintenance when they got there.
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Mar 12, 2019 17:20
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gh0stpinballa posted:another transformer has exploded totally spontaneously yeah i'm real worried Venezuela's straight up unable to get Guri back online now, looks like those assessments of "if they keep trying to restart a hosed system it'll toast other poorly-maintained parts of the grid" were pretty accurate (relatedly, thanks for the posts on this chuck and kavros in particular) beer_war posted:Luis Carlos has been taken by SEBIN and they're taking him to El Helicoide. i told you he was a traitor and probably a CIA spy! Chuck Boone posted:I haven't seen this video, but Luz Mely Reyes is claiming on Twitter that the government is blaming Luis Carlos for being part of the strike team that carried out the cybernetic and/or the electromagnetic attack against the country's electrical system. She's claiming that there's a video in which Luis Carlos is talking about disruptions to the electrical service that the regime has doctored to make it sound like he knew about the blackout in advance. ooh, maybe i should apply to be an english-language opinion writer for the venezuelan government, i could use the fifty cents a month for laundry Private Witt posted:Looks like Maduro has found the culprit. AP just sent out a blurb: if this is the pretext the govt uses to arrest him i will laugh and laugh and cry
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Mar 12, 2019 17:26
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Darth Walrus posted:The most Venezuelan option is that the US State Department planned and implemented a sophisticated, multi-pronged attack on the power grid, only to find it had already burned down due to lack of maintenance when they got there. can't be cyberattacked if you have neither electricity nor internet!
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Mar 12, 2019 17:27
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:I'm kinda curious, does Maduro's language sound as, well, let's say "eccentric", to Spanish speakers as Trump's sounds to English speakers? I'm not bilingual but I get the sense they both have a unique relationship with their native languages and I was curious if it's at all similar. He's stuck his foot in his mouth several times, quite famously, saying weird things that don't make too much sense or are grammatically incorrect which people usually seize upon to mock him. He also does tend to ramble in a certain way that is also sometimes strange, but actually Chavez was more of a rambler than even Maduro. I'm pretty sure his weekly television show was like 6 hours long and it was almost entirely just him solo'ing up there. All that said, I wouldn't compare it to Trump's unique brand of sun downing stream of conscious rambling where you'd need complex word tree diagrams to make sense of the digressions within digressions within digressions.
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Mar 12, 2019 17:28
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Private Witt posted:Looks like Maduro has found the culprit. AP just sent out a blurb: Yes. Here we go: Attorney General Tarek William Saab has announced that he's ordered the Supreme Court to investigate Guaido for orchestrating the blackout.
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Mar 12, 2019 17:32
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