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Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~

Zesty posted:

What is it about Lauren that makes her staying worthwhile? She's done little other than being a shadow of Wentworth.

She's hot and I'm shallow

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ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
There's potential in Lauren I think; she's starry-eyed over Wentworth but knows that it's an individual game, so she hasn't told her about the idol. And it takes guts to hold onto an idol during a 5-man TC when you know you're one of the names being thrown about.

She will likely have to cut Wentworth at some point, but I don't see her needing to do that for a while.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

I wouldn't have really cared if Lauren had been voted out, but yeah she has shown a tiny bit of game in finding the idol, not telling anyone (I think?), and not using it when she knew her name was on the block. But I think it's about equal to what Rick's shown. I saw them as pretty equal.

I am not coming around on Wardog so in my ideal case both duos would have just started revolted against the swing vote and said "let's just take the douche out". Que sera sera.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Propaganda Machine posted:

Hey, nobody cares. Wendy is in a super cool spot at the moment, and these dumb swap tribes never last more than a couple of weeks anyway.

Are you ok

Spergatory
Oct 28, 2012
Man, the Survivor Gods really don't want this season to have any new interesting dynamics, do they? That swap was some bullshit. Manu is now so isolated from the rest of the game that their only hope is that Kama being split in two will actually cause them to turn against each other. They can't make any relationships or inroads with the majority tribe, so they have no choice but to cross their fingers and hope they screw up.

Fortunately, there is a decent history of majority tribes doing just that in a situation like this where they enter the merge with a huge lead. Tandang and Timbira from Philippines and Tocantins come to mind. In most situations with true pagongings, the tribes merged even or with a 1-2 person difference, making the majority tribe feel like they had to stick together to defeat a legitimately threatening enemy. But if the numbers are, say, 9-4, the minority seems like no threat at all, and the tribe's attention can turn to resolving long simmering internal tensions. (It helps if the majority kind of hates each other, like the above two examples.)

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

It was a terrible long term split (but hilarious short term) but it does kind of come down to Manu just needs to win something. I think that contributed to what sad sacks they were at the end of the episode more than the sadness of voting out a "family member". Splitting Kama in two evened the odds and removing Wendy took away their scapegoat. They immediately came out of that saying "we can totally win now". So I think part of that sad tribal and depression was just the straight up Wentworth confessional where she laughed at what a bad dream the tribe was.

Also I got a small laugh out of Wendy being the one who finished that challenge.

Ultimately if it keeps going this one sided it won't matter. Manu will be effectively dead after one or two more tribals. That's probably the best case scenario since it would force Kama to have no choice but turn on each other. I'd Manu keeps a small coalition going they potentially remain enough of a threat to hold the Kama tribe together.

I kind of just want Wentworth, David, and Wendy to survive and cause chaos quietly as individuals while Kama weeds out it's boring players.

STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 14:19 on Mar 14, 2019

garthoneeye
Feb 18, 2013

Spergatory posted:

Man, the Survivor Gods really don't want this season to have any new interesting dynamics, do they? That swap was some bullshit. Manu is now so isolated from the rest of the game that their only hope is that Kama being split in two will actually cause them to turn against each other. They can't make any relationships or inroads with the majority tribe, so they have no choice but to cross their fingers and hope they screw up.

Fortunately, there is a decent history of majority tribes doing just that in a situation like this where they enter the merge with a huge lead. Tandang and Timbira from Philippines and Tocantins come to mind. In most situations with true pagongings, the tribes merged even or with a 1-2 person difference, making the majority tribe feel like they had to stick together to defeat a legitimately threatening enemy. But if the numbers are, say, 9-4, the minority seems like no threat at all, and the tribe's attention can turn to resolving long simmering internal tensions. (It helps if the majority kind of hates each other, like the above two examples.)

It also happened in Samoa. All three seasons also did not have a real swap. And there is at least some factional fracturing in Kama with the newbie/returnee tension. The big difference is that the minority were lock solid with each other and I don’t think David would feel that with Kelley. If Manu lose again and cut David I think we could realistically see a F6 of Kelley, Lauren, Wardog, Aubrey, Joe, whatsherface Aurora?.

garthoneeye fucked around with this message at 14:29 on Mar 14, 2019

The Bloop
Jul 5, 2004

by Fluffdaddy
Big Wendy has actually been a challenge beast overall



I mean, she is completely batshit and unstable, obviously, but good to have on the challenge front

SweetJahasus
Dec 23, 2005

Dragon Slayer
Samurai Warrior
Escape Artist
Viking
Chong-Ra Master

BE THE WIZARD
Big Wendy is for some reason my favorite nickname to ever come out of Survivor. I don't know what it is about it, but it makes me laugh every time.

The Bloop
Jul 5, 2004

by Fluffdaddy
Big Wendy

freeman
Aug 14, 2018
I'd be less annoyed with Wendy if she didn't admit she was going there hoping to release some chickens.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

The Bloop posted:

Big Wendy has actually been a challenge beast overall

yeah if she wasn't so obnoxious about the chickens she'd easily be my favorite player so far this season

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!

IcePhoenix posted:

Are you ok

lol, hi.

Yeah, I think Wendy got swapped out of a rough spot and into a place where at least one or two people will be more than happy to talk trash about Aubry and get her on board should they end up at tribal before merge.

It'll be beautiful if it happens, right? Aubry has no idea the trouble she's in AND has the idol she's been craving for three seasons now, which is clearly a ticket to winning. Since the swap tribe is all Aubry's old tribe, sans Joey Amazing, plus Victoria who has a strong will and 100% wants Aubry gone?

Come on. Wendy's in great shape.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

I actually don't think Wendy is unstable at all, really. Wendy's actions are all fairly rational. She knows what she's doing, she knows what the consequences of her actions will be, and hell, her motivations are even pretty sympathetic. But where most of us would say "I'd like to do X but that will hurt the other people and get me in trouble, so I won't because its not worth it" she's just saying "I know this will cause me trouble, but I'm going to do it anyway." That's kind of nuts because its not how we tend to act, but its actually pretty easy to follow.

At the very least she's not some kind of Abi Marie or even like an Angelina from last season who can't seem to recognize what she's doing wrong.

I think that's why David/Rick and Aubry and Co seem willing to try and work with it. Its potentially risky because she could get an unexpected bee in her bonnet that derails your game. But there's also arguably a value to a player who's motivations and actions are kind on the surface vs someone like Wardog who you kind of don't know which way he's gonna chose.

That and yeah, she's kind of low key been a challenge beast. She could be a lot of fun if she survives to the merge because she's competitive and likable enough to actually play the game but she's crazy enough to shake up the game and cause drama.

Propaganda Machine posted:


Come on. Wendy's in great shape.

I don't know if i think she's in great shape, but I definitely think she's got a little wiggle room now. I want to see Wendy and Aubry get close, Victoria decide Aubry is the bigger threat, Wendy tip off Aubry (after Victoria just talks about it 3 ft away from her), and have Aubry use her idol and adopt Wendy as her partner. That feels fun.

STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 15:45 on Mar 14, 2019

The Bloop
Jul 5, 2004

by Fluffdaddy

STAC Goat posted:

where most of us would say "I'd like to do X but that will hurt the other people and get me in trouble, so I won't because its not worth it" she's just saying "I know this will cause me trouble, but I'm going to do it anyway." That's kind of nuts because its not how we tend to act, but its actually pretty easy to follow.
The issue with stability that you glossed over is what goes into the X

For most people, it wouldn't matter what lovely thing went into the X because they wouldn't do something if they determined it was bad for their game. She might. That's not someone you want to be in an alliance with or even at camp with.




I'm not saying she is literally mentally infirm, but she behaves in an unpredictable way because she is apparently willing to act on her most self-destructive whims.

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!
What part of last night's episode made you (STAC) think that Aubry is down with working with Wendy?

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

The Bloop posted:

The issue with stability that you glossed over is what goes into the X

For most people, it wouldn't matter what lovely thing went into the X because they wouldn't do something if they determined it was bad for their game. She might. That's not someone you want to be in an alliance with or even at camp with.

Well I'm not glossing over it. Like I said, its a gamble. Once you know Wendy is willing to go against her own interests for an emotional reason you run the risk of her doing it again and can't totally predict when it could happen.

But I think its the complication of the game of Survivor. If you were playing a team sport, yeah, Wendy would be a bad team player. But when you're playing a game where you have to form alliances with competitors then someone like Wendy whose motivations and actions are easy to read and arguably even selfless or at least not rooted in advancing her own game might be a more inviting ally than someone like Wardog who IS playing for himself and suddenly adept at deceit and betrayal.

Propaganda Machine posted:

What part of last night's episode made you (STAC) think that Aubry is down with working with Wendy?

Well it was mostly that she was saying how much she liked Wendy and how she thought she had a big heart and was a sweet person. I don't think Aubry gave any clear signs of wanting to go to war with Wendy but I think the door's a little bit open. But I think for it to happen it would probably have to be pushed by Victoria and the others targeting Aubry and tipping Aubry or Wendy off about it.

But I can easily see Aubry wanting to work with Wendy post-merge if that tribe can avoid Tribal. I think that's probably the idea that I was reading into with Aubry's comments towards Wendy.

STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 15:56 on Mar 14, 2019

The Bloop
Jul 5, 2004

by Fluffdaddy
If anybody had actually expected her to release the chickens, they would probably still have chickens.




I'm not sure learning that lesson about her is worth the cost.

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!

STAC Goat posted:

Well it was mostly that she was saying how much she liked Wendy and how she thought she had a big heart and was a sweet person. I don't think Aubry gave any clear signs of wanting to go to war with Wendy but I think the door's a little bit open. But I think for it to happen it would probably have to be pushed by Victoria and the others targeting Aubry and tipping Aubry or Wendy off about it.

But I can easily see Aubry wanting to work with Wendy post-merge if that tribe can avoid Tribal. I think that's probably the idea that I was reading into with Aubry's comments towards Wendy.

Really? Because it seemed to me that Aubry finds herself in a somewhat arrogant default position of not being The Next To Go. She seems to like Wendy, sure, and she feels slightly regretful of this perception, but I don't think the cards are lining up for the epic Waubry tsunami.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

The Bloop posted:

If anybody had actually expected her to release the chickens, they would probably still have chickens.




I'm not sure learning that lesson about her is worth the cost.

If I implied they expected her to release the chickens then I misspoke.

What I'm saying is that I rather worry that my alliance mate will release my dinner but stay loyal to me than worry that my ally is scheming behind my back and will blindside me at Tribal. If you worry Wendy's behavior will extend to the game then maybe the equation changes, but I actually think the fact that she did something that actively hurt her game speaks to a kind of "game selflessness" that can be kind of tempting in an ally.

Propaganda Machine posted:

Really? Because it seemed to me that Aubry finds herself in a somewhat arrogant default position of not being The Next To Go. She seems to like Wendy, sure, and she feels slightly regretful of this perception, but I don't think the cards are lining up for the epic Waubry tsunami.

I think I'm misspeaking really badly this morning. Bad sleep.

I think Aubry's motivations work on this level:
1) "Awesome! I'm not on the bottom of the tribe anymore! They'll totally target Wendy before me, right?"
2) "I like Wendy and it sucks that I may need to throw her under the bus to survive."
3) "I like Wendy enough that if we can get to the merge together she could be really useful considering the numbers."

Now, I'm totally speculating about (3) and it becomes moot if Manu goes to Tribal. But I think its kind of a logical, Aubry thought under the surface that I'm totally reading into.

edit: So basically I'm saying "no, I don't think Aubry is working with Wendy at this time" but I do think there's a logical path for them to work together if a few things break the right way. After all, Aubry worked with Tai.

STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 16:07 on Mar 14, 2019

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!

STAC Goat posted:

I think Aubry's motivations work on this level:
1) "Awesome! I'm not on the bottom of the tribe anymore! They'll totally target Wendy before me, right?"
2) "I like Wendy and it sucks that I may need to throw her under the bus to survive."
3) "I like Wendy enough that if we can get to the merge together she could be really useful considering the numbers."

Now, I'm totally speculating about (3) and it becomes moot if Manu goes to Tribal. But I think its kind of a logical, Aubry thought under the surface that I'm totally reading into.

edit: So basically I'm saying "no, I don't think Aubry is working with Wendy at this time" but I do think there's a logical path for them to work together if a few things break the right way. After all, Aubry worked with Tai.

That's the thing. Aubry is a good strategist and we all know this, but there's a certain element of heart that's missing from her game. I mean, we were mostly all here for Kaoh Rong and we were mostly all pissed that she lost, and badly. The fact is that the jury just didn't want to give the win to her, because they just didn't like her very much.

Because you're right. She sees Wendy as a potential opportunity, not necessarily a human.

Lone Goat
Apr 16, 2003

When life gives you lemons, suplex those lemons.




If your ally can't even act in their own best interests then what good are they as an ally?

Wendy is doing effectively random poo poo for no in-game reason, what makes you think she's going to stick to a plan?

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!
I've seen Wendy's behavior as reckless, not necessarily self-sabotaging.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Lone Goat posted:

If your ally can't even act in their own best interests then what good are they as an ally?

Wendy is doing effectively random poo poo for no in-game reason, what makes you think she's going to stick to a plan?
Like I said, it comes down to whether you see it as a character trait that will extend to game decisions or if you see it as evidence that Wendy will make decisions independent of game consequences. I wouldn't blame anyone for not wanting to gamble on Wendy. But I also wouldn't blame anyone for saying "This could bite me in the rear end but I trust Wendy to be more loyal and less devious than Wardog."


Propaganda Machine posted:

That's the thing. Aubry is a good strategist and we all know this, but there's a certain element of heart that's missing from her game. I mean, we were mostly all here for Kaoh Rong and we were mostly all pissed that she lost, and badly. The fact is that the jury just didn't want to give the win to her, because they just didn't like her very much.

Because you're right. She sees Wendy as a potential opportunity, not necessarily a human.

I definitely don't think Aubry will stick her neck out for Wendy out of the kindness of her heart. But I think its possible Aubry COULD see Wendy as someone who would do that for her.

But more I think Aubry's just still in a potentially bad game position and Wendy is the kind of wildcard who she and Joe might need post merge. I'm basically imagining an Aubry, Joe, Wentworth, David, Wendy, and De-Extinct Rick Devens motley crew having to ally against the Kama newbies.

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!
Even after last night's vote, I....really don't see a case where David is at all interested in working with Wentworth. Where are you finding that?

Nottherealaborn
Nov 12, 2012
Lol at anyone who unironically likes Wendy, instead of enjoying her for being an insane Angelina, but with more self awareness.

Her motivations are not at all sympathetic and the only reasons to keep her in the game are 1) being okay at challenges and 2) being a great goat because there’s no way she gets any votes in the final 3 because her social game is terrible at best.

2) is negated completely by how unpredictable she is between her no real alliances and dumb obsession with the chickens which every episode is less driven by caring about the chickens and more driven by thinking she’s cool and badass for caring about the chickens.

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!

Nottherealaborn posted:

Lol at anyone who unironically likes Wendy, instead of enjoying her for being an insane Angelina, but with more self awareness.

Her motivations are not at all sympathetic and the only reasons to keep her in the game are 1) being okay at challenges and 2) being a great goat because there’s no way she gets any votes in the final 3 because her social game is terrible at best.

2) is negated completely by how unpredictable she is between her no real alliances and dumb obsession with the chickens which every episode is less driven by caring about the chickens and more driven by thinking she’s cool and badass for caring about the chickens.

Counterpoint:

She has the raddest swimsuit in the cast photos, by far.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Propaganda Machine posted:

Even after last night's vote, I....really don't see a case where David is at all interested in working with Wentworth. Where are you finding that?

I'm not. I'm just imagining a scenario in which Lesu keeps losing and the merge allows the Kama newbies to come back together and stay anti-veteran, and that theoretically forcing the vets and scragglers together for the numbers.

edit: That being said, if Lesu loses again David could easily be in serious trouble.

STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 16:43 on Mar 14, 2019

MisterZimbu
Mar 13, 2006
I'm curious about how "little" the exiled people get considering they were given fishing gear, which one of the main tribes doesn't even get.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

This focus of this season is shaping up absolutely awfully so far. I've enjoyed the Extinction Island content we've gotten well enough, but that combined with one tribe losing exclusively, and there being some returnees stealing the focus, means we're several episodes in and we still have no idea whatsoever who half the cast is. This has to be the worst that's ever been, right?

They still can introduce these other players and surely will eventually but it'll just feel like t-shirt designer Brett parachuting into Samoa at the F6 if they're not properly established ahead of time. And even though I say the EI stuff has been fine so far, we all know it's going to do something incredibly stupid eventually.

STAC Goat posted:

Apparently he's just Cochran'd and asked for it.

Which in fairness, isn't nearly as desperate as telling everyone to call you "The Wardog".
Somebody posted here earlier that he actually asked to be called by his full name, "Rick Devins," which is pretty funny. I loved Rick. Sad to see him go, he got a real rough break with that swap.

Fast Luck fucked around with this message at 17:40 on Mar 14, 2019

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

My guess is they have the means to build a shelter and fish and stuff but for one or two hungry people its gonna be hard. Especially since the early people voted out don't tend to be the "hunter/gatherer" types.

As long as food rationing isn't a major thing life probably gets progressively easier the more people who show up.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

The Bloop posted:

Big Wendy has actually been a challenge beast overall



I mean, she is completely batshit and unstable, obviously, but good to have on the challenge front
Yeah, exactly. It's a surprising asset to find in the first boot kook. She's already shown off her swimming but seeing her replace out a puzzle solver and win was an extra surprise. Really hope she survives to the merge, but also want this to be the end of that chicken plot

Nottherealaborn posted:

Lol at anyone who unironically likes Wendy, instead of enjoying her for being an insane Angelina, but with more self awareness.

Her motivations are not at all sympathetic and the only reasons to keep her in the game are 1) being okay at challenges and 2) being a great goat because there’s no way she gets any votes in the final 3 because her social game is terrible at best.

2) is negated completely by how unpredictable she is between her no real alliances and dumb obsession with the chickens which every episode is less driven by caring about the chickens and more driven by thinking she’s cool and badass for caring about the chickens.
I think she's not necessarily a total goat... she could be the sort of likable misfit that you end up having affection for if you fail to remove them straight off for being different. I don't actually think she does make it all the way to the end, but if she gets near I could actually see her being seen as a threat for being the lovable underdog? Not sure on this, just think it's possible

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Fast Luck posted:

I think she's not necessarily a total goat... she could be the sort of likable misfit that you end up having affection for if you fail to remove them straight off for being different. I don't actually think she does make it all the way to the end, but if she gets near I could actually see her being seen as a threat for being the lovable underdog? Not sure on this, just think it's possible

Yeah, I think we've seen as many people say they like her as ones who said they didn't. It helps her that Manu/Lesu have been so decimated so the people she upset the most are gradually being taken out. That stuff also happened early in the game so its possible by the time a Wentworth or Wardog get to Jury they've gotten over it or found bigger grudges to hold. Her new Manu tribe clearly wasn't happy about the chickens but they didn't react as badly on cameras as the old Manu/Lesu. Maybe that was editing or time, or maybe they just felt less obligated to the chickens or are just new to Wendy and she hadn't stolen their flint or done other stuff to upset them.

Wendy seems like she can overcome the stuff she's already done, but if she keeps doing stuff like that she makes herself more of a goat. And that does seem like a plausible scenario. But its at least theoretically possible that with the chickens subplot gone the main thing driving her bad decisions is gone and something new won't replace it. I'm not betting on it, tough.

Lone Goat
Apr 16, 2003

When life gives you lemons, suplex those lemons.




Wendy reminds me a lot of Abi-Maria in that she is acting like a person who doesn't want to win the game, but just wants to do whatever.

But more mischievous than malicious.

JakeP
Apr 27, 2003

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
Lipstick Apathy

Nottherealaborn posted:

Lol at anyone who unironically likes Wendy, instead of enjoying her for being an insane Angelina, but with more self awareness.


why cant it be both

Nottherealaborn
Nov 12, 2012

JakeP posted:

why cant it be both

Because in the end Wendy is terrible. People here judged the poo poo out of her tribe for laughing at her exaggerated limping (which, granted is mean), but somehow like Wendy because she steals flint and chickens (definitely worse than anything else shown), while making no effort to have a social game since losing her only friend in the first immunity challenge.

Again, she’s entertaining, but a terrible person and terrible contender.

Spergatory
Oct 28, 2012
Lol at everyone who judges someone to be a "terrible person" based on minutes worth of footage from a heavily edited reality TV show.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

I think we're all clearly laughing at the chicken and flint BECAUSE its so chaotic and messy.

That being said I don't think she's a terrible person, even though I think stealing the flint and releasing the chickens were dick things to do. But I also don't think Wentworth and Co are terrible people despite the fact that making fun of Wendy's injury was a dick thing to do.

Now Wardog's a terrible person. But that's just because he calls himself "The Wardog" and tattooed it on his body.

And Keith is evil. But that's obvious because he goes to Duke.

Dugong
Mar 18, 2013

I don't know what to do,
I'm going to lose my mind

I thought EoE would mean no expansion swap, and yet... Dear Jeff, now that we have had this bananas swap, can we go one season without a 2 to 3 tribe swap. It was cool in Cambodia but that was 7 seasons ago.

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Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004
The 2-to-3 swap is actually almost always a Good Thing, with turnouts like this being aberrations, so they should keep doing it.

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