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TMMadman posted:It sure did seem like Lauren, Dave and Kelly all said "Man, Wardog is annoying and will be impossible to work with later" (or something along those lines) at some point last night, so I was a little surprised that they didn't talk about just about voting Wardog and telling the other tribe at tribal. In this situation you act like you're with him and then if he's up in a tie you just don't go to rocks for him. And if he stays around he's a great shield. He basically appoints himself as the leader of any alliance so he's going to have a target on his back for that. And even though he looks like a physical threat, he's not, so you probably don't really need to worry about him going on an immunity run. Speaking of going to rocks though, I can't decide if I like it or not that Jeff let them talk before revoting or not.
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Mar 21, 2019 20:10
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freeman posted:I got some enjoyment out of them poo poo talking David early in the first half then all 3 of them proceeding to look pretty worthless themselves. Rob C had a great line last night where "you never want to be the one member of Lesu who walks away from the others." As soon as someone walks away its "God, X is worthless." That's just where that tribe is at.
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Mar 21, 2019 20:30
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I just love the poetry of Wendy being voted out unanimously by every single person still in the game who has had to endure her even though they were spread across two different tribes. That kind of serendipity is just 
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Mar 21, 2019 20:44
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Am I crazy, or does Lauren look like she's in better shape than all of her tribe-mates? Like, I know she did say she was sick in one interview, but since then, it seems like that's something that only Wardog has been on about.
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Mar 21, 2019 22:00
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Lauren's younger than Wentworth by a decade and roughly two decades younger than Wardog and David. Plus she's a college soccer player. So it probably shouldn't be too much surprise that she's holding up the best of the bunch regardless of however sick she was. And yeah, for all the talk Wentworth and Wardog were doing about how David was dragging them down Lauren really seems like she's the only one of the bunch consistently carrying her weight in challenges.
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Mar 21, 2019 22:13
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In retrospect voting out Chris was a big mistake for all of them. Why did they do that again
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Mar 21, 2019 22:17
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Wendy was the tribe target but she was pushing the "Get Wentworth Out" thing. David and Devins decided they wanted to do that and got Chris in on it. David warned Chris not to tell Wardog but Chris did anyway because he thought he could manage the blindside. Wardog decided he wanted Wentworth as a shield so he told her and they and Lauren agreed to make him the target. Devins and David became the swing votes between Wentworth and Chris and picked Chris because he had proved himself unreliable with the whole incident. There was a lot of second guessing on that one but I think most agreed that taking the big shot at Wentworth that early would have been a potential mistake for David. I don't think Wendy was even on the table at the end (although Wendy was kind of a low key comp beast). Manu/Lesu just played the game too hard, too early and self sabotaged until the tribe was toxic. STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 22:30 on Mar 21, 2019 |
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Mar 21, 2019 22:27
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I'm still curious about after Chris blabbed to Wardog and the whole plan got out, whether David/Devens would have voted out Wendy if the target hadn't shifted to Chris. Like in a way Chris might have been the guy both sides could compromise on, but idk, maybe the whole thing was dead as soon as Chris leaked it and idol possibilities came into play
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Mar 21, 2019 22:49
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STAC Goat posted:Wendy was the tribe target but she was pushing the "Get Wentworth Out" thing. David was pushing it, Wendy was just along for the ride. Everything else is right though
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Mar 21, 2019 23:49
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STAC Goat posted:Manu/Lesu just played the game too hard, too early and self sabotaged until the tribe was toxic. Overplaying was definitely an issue (specifically by Kelly, Wardog and Chris...I think David is playing an underrated game this season), but to chalk up the majority of their failures to anything other than horribly uneven original tribes followed by the most unfavorable tribeswap scenario possible feels like an exaggeration. Vernacular fucked around with this message at 00:22 on Mar 22, 2019 |
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Mar 22, 2019 00:18
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Vernacular posted:Overplaying was definitely an issue (specifically by Kelly, Wardog and Chris...I think David is playing an underrated game this season), but to chalk up the majority of their failures to anything other than horribly uneven original tribes followed by the most unfavorable tribeswap scenario possible feels like an exaggeration. The tribe swap sucked, but I don't think the tribes would have been anywhere near as uneven physically if they hadn't voted off Reem and Chris so early. Keith clearly couldn't swim in the first challenge, then they kept him around to let him fail at swimming in the second challenge, and then after losing two people they voted off the strongest person on their tribe, and then seem really taken aback they can't win a challenge now. It's been lovely for the tribe but hopefully a wakeup call to future season's players about how important the first half of the game still is.
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Mar 22, 2019 00:42
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Aerox posted:The tribe swap sucked, but I don't think the tribes would have been anywhere near as uneven physically if they hadn't voted off Reem and Chris so early. Keith clearly couldn't swim in the first challenge, then they kept him around to let him fail at swimming in the second challenge, and then after losing two people they voted off the strongest person on their tribe, and then seem really taken aback they can't win a challenge now. I think the producers were banking on the strength of Manu's women balancing out the strength of Kama's men. Hindsight is 20/20, but obviously it's not so shocking that Joe/fireman/YMCA guy/badass med student have been dunking all over a team made up of David Wright/guy who can't swim/dadbod newscaster/Tony Vlachos-looking dude who actually can't do anything. Even if their collegiate athlete didn't end up withering away on camera, their team was still riddled with weak links while Kama didn't really have any.
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Mar 22, 2019 02:29
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Vernacular posted:I think the producers were banking on the strength of Manu's women balancing out the strength of Kama's men. Hindsight is 20/20, but obviously it's not so shocking that Joe/fireman/YMCA guy/badass med student have been dunking all over a team made up of David Wright/guy who can't swim/dadbod newscaster/Tony Vlachos-looking dude who actually can't do anything. Manu also had Reem, so I don't think it was an even split either way. And it's not like Kama didn't have women in shape either; Aurora and Julia seem like they're pulling their weight. Manu had... Chris. I mean Wardog probably fooled them from his appearance. Aerox posted:The tribe swap sucked, but I don't think the tribes would have been anywhere near as uneven physically if they hadn't voted off Reem and Chris so early. Keith clearly couldn't swim in the first challenge, then they kept him around to let him fail at swimming in the second challenge, and then after losing two people they voted off the strongest person on their tribe, and then seem really taken aback they can't win a challenge now. Chris was right before the swap though, so can't really do anything about their post-swap performance. He'd still have been better if he replaced anyone on Lesu, but hindsight. Not booting Keith immediately wasn't great either, but it's understandable why Reem was first boot too. Early bad impressions just set you apart.
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Mar 22, 2019 02:54
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I imagine Kama has its share of weak links too but Joe is such a beast that he covers them. I'm not sure how you balance that out short of putting Malcolm on Manu or something. But yeah, I agree, to some extent Manu drew a bad hand. But I think part of that is also that they drew more strategists and people looking to game out of the gate and cut some throats. That pushed them straight into the game hard and they neglected all the "Tribe" stuff. And I think that took a toll as much as anything else. But yeah, I totally agree there were other factors as well. But like, they weren't terrible at challenges. Wendy was good, Chris was good, Lauren was good. Wentworth and Wardog seemed to be holding their own until they broke down. But its tough to topple the Joe factor. I mean, if Aubry had ended up on Manu she probably would have been a hardcore gamer like she wanted. If Wentworth had landed on Kama I imagine she would have done the same deal where she rounded up allies and started painting targets. The way the cards got dealt definitely helped set up the problems, but I do think the actions of the players moved it along and helped make it the disaster it is. IcePhoenix posted:David was pushing it, Wendy was just along for the ride. The way I recall it Wendy and Wentworth were at odds from W1 and the Reem vote and Wendy was pushing Wentworth consistently. But I should clarify that yeah, David was the game driving force to make it possible. He just drafted off Wendy's desire to push Wentworth to try and hide his own motivations and agenda. I basically remember it like this: Wentworth: Wendy is the target, right? Wardog: Yeah, Wendy. Lauren: Definitely Wendy. Chris: For sure, Wendy. Devins: Yeah. David: Sure. Wendy: You guys have to see Wentworth is the problem. David: You know... I want Wentworth out too. I can use this. Devins: I'd be down with sending Wentworth out. David: Hey, Chris, what do you think about taking Wentworth out? Wendy wants to do it and it would be interesting. Chris: I'd be game. So yeah, I'm not giving credit to Wendy for making it happen. I'm saying David used her clumsy pushing to try put together the numbers. STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 03:05 on Mar 22, 2019 |
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Mar 22, 2019 03:03
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STAC Goat posted:I imagine Kama has its share of weak links too but Joe is such a beast that he covers them. I'm not sure how you balance that out short of putting Malcolm on Manu or something. But yeah, I agree, to some extent Manu drew a bad hand. But I think part of that is also that they drew more strategists and people looking to game out of the gate and cut some throats. That pushed them straight into the game hard and they neglected all the "Tribe" stuff. And I think that took a toll as much as anything else. But yeah, I totally agree there were other factors as well. I actually went back and pulled it up on my dvr out of curiosity. Wendy steals the flint. Tribe sends David and Rick to talk to her. David and Rick use that chance to pitch the Wentworth vote to Wendy. The recap at the start of the episode teased that the three of them had talked about the vote in episode two as well but I couldn't figure out who brought it up to who and didn't want to dig for it, though I think they all were sort of having the same idea anyway.
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Mar 22, 2019 03:25
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Yeah, I'm sure David came to it on his own (and Devins and Chris probably did as well). As I recall Wentworth's name was being tossed out by Reem the first week. I just think David saw Wendy's vocal target of Wentworth as a way to hide his own hand so he didn't make himself a target with the move. I think that's why he backed off and voted out Chris. Him and Devins being the swing votes between Wendy/Chris and Wardog/Lauren/Wentworth would put more focus on him (and Devins) then I think he saw the first scenario. And he didn't trust Chris in that more precarious scenario.
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Mar 22, 2019 03:31
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Seriously wondering on the balance of the tribes when you got Joe on a tribe. A guy who has an incredibly good win rate at tribal councils... Probably one of the top of the top for winning those challenges...
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Mar 22, 2019 03:38
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I think Joe's a huge edge but that's why there's puzzles and "everyone has to be on the mat" stuff. Someone like Joe can win some comps single handily but not every one.
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Mar 22, 2019 03:40
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Despite all our talk about how dogshit Manu/Lesu is, I would not be surprised at all to see them turn the tide at the merge and go deep in the game, especially with 2 idols and some people on the other side - the EoE returnee, Joe and Aurora who could be getable.
JesusSinfulHands fucked around with this message at 04:16 on Mar 22, 2019 |
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Mar 22, 2019 04:13
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I think the other thing is that Kama doesn’t have as many weak links other than maybe Ron and Julie, but they’re not nearly as terrible as Keith.
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Mar 22, 2019 04:52
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If anything Manu/Lesu have a lot of room to take the numbers at the merge. Two idols, Joe desperate for a lifeline, and the Edge of Extinction returnee. Even if the Kama newbies all stay together and someone like Aurora doesn't stray or someone like Victoria doesn't try to make something else happen the Lesu four have probably a good chance to flip things David-like if they play it smart. The question is if all those players can get on the same page. I can see it going either way.
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Mar 22, 2019 05:10
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STAC Goat posted:If anything Manu/Lesu have a lot of room to take the numbers at the merge. Two idols, Joe desperate for a lifeline, and the Edge of Extinction returnee. Even if the Kama newbies all stay together and someone like Aurora doesn't stray or someone like Victoria doesn't try to make something else happen the Lesu four have probably a good chance to flip things David-like if they play it smart. you really think the EoE returnee is going to work with the people that voted them out?
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Mar 22, 2019 06:12
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Lone Goat posted:you really think the EoE returnee is going to work with the people that voted them out? Depends on who it is. Rick would probably fall back in with David and the Lesus. Reem and Keith? Heck no. I really don't know about Wendy and Chris though. I actually wouldn't be surprised if the EoE returnee got immunity for the first merge TC.
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Mar 22, 2019 06:16
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Was bored and decided to watch the Outcasts twist again and I think it was Really Good TV. Hopefully next week lives up to it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UaVl2EZbts https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cZi67iYuyk
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Mar 22, 2019 09:31
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Bow wow to the Wardog. Big dogs gotta eat.
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Mar 22, 2019 11:45
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lol @ Reem or Keith winning a challenge to get back in the game. I mean, sure, it could happen
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Mar 22, 2019 12:06
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We've only seen Reem do one challenge, and she wasn't bad at it iirc? And if there's no water maybe Keith is fine lol
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Mar 22, 2019 15:28
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Vernacular posted:Overplaying was definitely an issue (specifically by Kelly, Wardog and Chris...I think David is playing an underrated game this season), but to chalk up the majority of their failures to anything other than horribly uneven original tribes followed by the most unfavorable tribeswap scenario possible feels like an exaggeration.
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Mar 22, 2019 15:34
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STAC Goat posted:I think Joe's a huge edge but that's why there's puzzles and "everyone has to be on the mat" stuff. Someone like Joe can win some comps single handily but not every one.
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Mar 22, 2019 15:38
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The Bloop posted:lol @ Reem or Keith winning a challenge to get back in the game. i feel like Reem is just boiling over with anger 24/7 so anything she does (including winning a challenge) wouldn't surprise me. Keith, no chance, and i bet he leaves poo poo Mast Island afterward
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Mar 22, 2019 16:28
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I'm looking forward to Reem losing and griping "Probst you made me sit on that damned extinction island for 2 weeks for nothing"
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Mar 22, 2019 19:59
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Lone Goat posted:you really think the EoE returnee is going to work with the people that voted them out? Devins, yes. Aubry, you'd think. Wendy, maybe? Sure there's a ton of water under that bridge but she just got betrayed by Kama too. Reem, Keith, and Chris would theoretically be tougher sells but it comes back to survival. If the Kama OGs stay "Goliath Strong" then it benefits everyone else to work together long enough to break that up and then go at each other like Davids. Whether it plays out like that or not, I have no idea.
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Mar 22, 2019 21:26
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STAC Goat posted:Devins, yes. Aubry, you'd think. Wendy, maybe? Sure there's a ton of water under that bridge but she just got betrayed by Kama too. Reem, Keith, and Chris would theoretically be tougher sells but it comes back to survival. If the Kama OGs stay "Goliath Strong" then it benefits everyone else to work together long enough to break that up and then go at each other like Davids. why would Aubry work with the people that blindsided her? HOW would Aubry work with the people that blindsided her? Devins I'll give you.
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Mar 22, 2019 23:10
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Lone Goat posted:why would Aubry work with the people that blindsided her? HOW would Aubry work with the people that blindsided her? They didn't blindside Aubry? Victoria and the Kamas did. So I'm saying it would make sense for her to work with Lesu and Joe? Why would she work with the Kama tribe who was icing her out and betrayed her? Am I confused?
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Mar 22, 2019 23:34
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I think they’re asking, ‘you really think the people from EoE (Aubry) would work with the people that blindsided them (Mana)?’
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Mar 23, 2019 01:51
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Ohhhhh... We're confusing OG Mana with Mana 2.0, aren't we? Ok, when I say "Mana" I was referring to the original crew that eventually became Lesu and the Edge of Extinction. My argument is that Lesu 4 has a chance to flip the numbers against OG Kama if they can grab Joe and the EoE. Then they'd just need one OG Kama newb (Aurora? Victoria?) or a good idol play. Devins would probably be an easy get. He didn't go out ugly, David had an alliance with him he stayed true to, and he seems smart enough to see the merit in it. Aubry seems like it would make sense for her to work with them, especially if they get Joe. There's a couple of vets there. She's been sketchy of the OG Kama newbs from even before the OG Kama/Manu 2.0 people betrayed her, and she's smart enough to see the merit of it. Wendy is a wildcard. She's got lots of bad blood with Lesu and that could be the most important thing to her. On the other hand it makes more sense to work with the dysfunctional majority of Lesu+ for at least a few votes to take apart the OG Kama plurality and then try and put something together to take apart Lesu. But Wendy clearly doesn't see game well. But I also think Joe might be the kind of player who can connect with her. And Manu 2.0/OG Kama did sell her down the river without hesitation. So I dunno. Reem, Keith, and Chris would be tougher gets for Lesu since they backstabbed them all. It still probably would make sense for them to work with the motley crew to break up the power group. But Reem and Keith seem driven by emotion. Chris seems like he might be more able to get past it, but who knows? My ultimate point is, Lesu has doors open to them to turn this around post merge. Its just a question of whether they can pull it off. STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 03:22 on Mar 23, 2019 |
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Mar 23, 2019 03:20
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STAC Goat posted:Ohhhhh... We're confusing OG Mana with Mana 2.0, aren't we? Well, you said Lesu/Manu which made me think you meant Lesu and Manu combined, since Lesu is a subset of original Manu and there's no reason to say both. The only way Wendy goes back to them is if she's somehow dumber than Matt Elrod, which... is believable actually. But yeah Aubry and Devins would work with Lesu, the rest prob wouldn't.
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Mar 23, 2019 07:32
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I don't like how everyone is all friendly and sad after tribal.
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Mar 23, 2019 09:05
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Yeah, I'm thinking of post merge dynamics as "OG Kama" and "Lesu 4 aka OG Mana" with maybe Joe and the EoE on the outskirts. So I get where it got confusing when I left out the "OG" part. Wendy (or the other OG Mana) could go back if everyone involved said "Despite all our problems and betrayals we're the minority divided and any of us working with OG Kama are just going to be on the bottom and a disposable number, so we should work together to break them up and then we can go our separate ways." Plus Wendy got betrayed by Victoria & the other two as well so she doesn't have a clean sheet with them either. But that's a lot of people (including potentially Wendy) acting beyond their emotions and seeing a big picture they might not have all the info or clear headed position for so I wouldn't bank on it at all. Its not impossible. Its happened. But definitely not something you count on. The boring alternative is that OG Kama convinces Lesu and Joe to all vote out the EoE person and they do like idiots in the name of an "easy vote." That would seem stupid but if its Wendy or basically anyone but Aubrey and Devins I could see it happening very easily.
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Mar 23, 2019 09:14
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I don’t like how we aren’t being shown the votes anymore, even if they’ve been very obvious so far.
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Mar 23, 2019 12:25
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