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Rust Martialis posted:Well, free elections, accepting UN aid freely, and the restoration of constitutional government is a clear set of first steps friend, isn't it? Personally I hope the kleptocracy who stole billions under the PSUV are tracked down and prosecuted, but if the new government declares an amnesty to ease the transition back to democratic government, thats up to the people of Venezuela. quote:I think next the government should try to restore water supplies, electrical supplies and food for the people, and try to restore oil production. I don't think it's in anyone's political program NOT to do those things. You're hiding behind platitudes, the opposition has a more clear political program than that: gut the public sector that Chavez built up. That's not going to go well for the poor. GreyjoyBastard posted:if the shoe were on the other foot and President Leopoldo Lopez jailed all the popular socialists and effectively dissolved the PSUV, you wouldn't look at the US recognizing his reelection and go "hmm, yes, seems legit" Why would the US be expected to only recognize "good" people when they come into power? Nobody is busy calling bullshit on the US recognizing the Saudi king as ruler of Saudi Arabia
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Apr 6, 2019 22:09
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Zidrooner posted:I don't think it's in anyone's political program NOT to do those things. You're hiding behind platitudes, the opposition has a more clear political program than that: gut the public sector that Chavez built up. That's not going to go well for the poor. are you... sure about that? what i've seen so far is disconnected contextless quotes and, well, platitudes that people point at to go "aha! see? no option but to support Maduro until the PSUV decides to self-reform!" Zidrooner posted:Why would the US be expected to only recognize "good" people when they come into power? Nobody is busy calling bullshit on the US recognizing the Saudi king as ruler of Saudi Arabia in that case I'm not sure what you're arguing re: recognition Zidrooner posted:You do realize there is no possibility of a transition to a democratic government under Guaido, on account of his US backing? Democracy implies someone who isn't aligned with US interests could win, surely you are aware that this won't be allowed? There are a couple fundamental disconnects between you and me on this one. - Guaido winning out as interim president is not necessarily the only outcome, but sure, let's assume it happens for these purposes. - I don't think Guaido is anywhere near as much of a US puppet as you do. If anything, my worry would flow the other direction, that he's cottoned to the notion that this whole popular revolt thing could sweep him into total dominance over the opposition and thereby the country, and the US is just a part of that. That's pretty out-of-my-rear end hypothetical, though, just having to do with the differences between him and Lopez et al and the feeling that as this has developed he's become a lot more popular a lot faster than any of his in-country backers expected. - I don't think the opposition as a whole is meaningfully US puppeted. This ties back to my larger position that "anti-coup" folks are, ironically, being not too great at ascribing agency to Venezuelans. - I don't think that if Maduro were deposed in favor of an interim government right now today, the opposition would be particularly beholden to the US. - I'm not certain the Trump administration has a particularly clear idea of US interests right now, so the range of outcomes they'd be willing to accept (or more relevantly imo, couldn't be bothered to overturn) is pretty danged wide. - If literally all of the above fail, you still run into the same problem as when I get asked how I would feel if Maduro held a free and fair presidential election and won. the answer is "be sad and hope there's something left of Venezuela when the PSUV decides to stop being evil", by the way. It's extremely possible - I would argue extremely likely - that a genuinely democratic election would give a win to Lopez or Lorenzo Mendoza or, yes, Guaido. I'm admittedly fairly interested in any information you're willing to post about any of these, if not nearly as interested as in your assertion that we know for a fact the opposition wants to gut the public sector and ruin the poor.
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Apr 6, 2019 22:31
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Zidrooner posted:You do realize there is no possibility of a transition to a democratic government under Guaido, on account of his US backing? Democracy implies someone who isn't aligned with US interests could win, surely you are aware that this won't be allowed? This is simply fearmongering. First off, Guaido isn't even the most likely person to be elected president after Maduro leaves. He's a relative nobody. quote:I don't think it's in anyone's political program NOT to do those things. You're hiding behind platitudes, the opposition has a more clear political program than that: gut the public sector that Chavez built up. That's not going to go well for the poor. As to gutting the public sector, it this means in part reversing the pointless nationalizations of businesses and handing them to PSUV cronies to loot and drive bankrupt, are you saying this would be bad? I mean the PSUV has quite a track record of taking over and destroying chunks of the Venezuelan economy that annoys them, and any rational recovery plan would have to include remedying these excesses. As to what isn't going well for the poor, the massive corruption, the theft of food and medicine, the pathetic debasement of forcing people seeing help to obtain a Carnet, the punishment of opposition with denial of access to social services... well if you approve of that, you won't approve stopping it, I guess. I'd have to see your definition of what it means to "gut the public sector" to give a better response. Certainly the massive corruption in public services needs to be rooted out, I'm sure you would agree.
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Apr 6, 2019 22:31
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Has there been any indication that Guaidó would run for non-interim president, if that election happens? I can understand speculating that he would or wouldn't, just wondering if it's been addressed.
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Apr 6, 2019 22:43
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I'd be really hesitant to say Guaido has little chance of running for or winning a post-Maduro presidency. He's getting international visibility that no other opposition figure ever has, and if Maduro is forced out, it will be in large part because of Guaido's activities. I think he would be a far more popular candidate than politicians who have been muzzled by prison sentences for the past 4 years.
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Apr 6, 2019 22:44
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dublish posted:I'd be really hesitant to say Guaido has little chance of running for or winning a post-Maduro presidency. He's getting international visibility that no other opposition figure ever has, and if Maduro is forced out, it will be in large part because of Guaido's activities. I think he would be a far more popular candidate than politicians who have been muzzled by prison sentences for the past 4 years. ironically, he'd be in a weaker position for a hypothetical future fair election if the 'coup' had succeeded and the military and/or the noble, nonpartisan Supreme Court and CNE had gone "yep, the election actually was fundamentally flawed, let's have a new one with the Speaker of the House as temporary president" Instead of these several months and counting of being the de-facto-by-virtue-of-being-least-imprisoned leader of the popular opposition, he'd have been more of a caretaker. edit: assuming, of course, that the Venezuelan people don't reject him for being a US puppet
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Apr 6, 2019 23:01
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a tiny bit of actual content on the protests today Venezuelans March To Demand Power, Water and End to Maduro https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics/venezuelans-march-to-demand-power-water-and-end-to-maduro-idUSKCN1RI0L1 wait no, that's too anti-maduro Venezuela Braces for Rival Protests https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/04/venezuela-braces-rival-protests-190405211845117.html
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Apr 6, 2019 23:27
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Thanks for all your effort and content, GreyjoyBastard!
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Apr 7, 2019 00:37
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Ideally if Maduro is deposed or steps down (somehow doubt he'll do that, haha) and free elections are held, Venezuela will get someone better than US Puppet/Bolsanaro's Future Best Friend Guaido. Policy-wise can't see anything positive coming from him apart from Not-Being-Maduro.
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Apr 7, 2019 00:41
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Discendo Vox posted:Thanks for all your effort and content, GreyjoyBastard! I got a bit rabbit holed once I got started. 
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Apr 7, 2019 00:44
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In all seriousness though, would anyone care to talk about how the candidate field looks in the event of a new election? I'm not particularly familiar with individual Venezuelan politicians and it would probably help the discussion.
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Apr 7, 2019 00:53
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Syenite posted:In all seriousness though, would anyone care to talk about how the candidate field looks in the event of a new election? I'm not particularly familiar with individual Venezuelan politicians and it would probably help the discussion. There's been some shifting, but if you look at the OP's list of political leaders below MUD, that gives you a few of the major names. Leopoldo Lopez, MCM and Henrique Capriles would be likely to appear in a new, open presidential election. All have been banned from political activity by the PSUV and/or imprisoned (the OP dates back to before the 2015 elections and hasn't kept up with imprisonments and exiles and such).
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Apr 7, 2019 01:24
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Syenite posted:In all seriousness though, would anyone care to talk about how the candidate field looks in the event of a new election? I'm not particularly familiar with individual Venezuelan politicians and it would probably help the discussion. there's a wide field of non PSUV possibles and I'm curious / catching up myself the odds of one of the oppo frontrunners not being one of the following are probably low Leopoldo Lopez, arguably most prominent figure in the MUD. Currently imprisoned. Fairly good ideologically, for a non socialist, back when. Guaido. Duh. Currently disqualified from holding office but not yet imprisoned. Ideologically maybe worrying lately, but was Lopez's protege - that's why he became Majority Leader in parliament before the age of 35. Henrique Capriles. Almost beat Maduro in 2013. Currently disqualified from holding office. I remember even less of his platform than Lopez. Lorenzo Mendoza. Wealthiest non-socialist in Venezuela. Has spent the last decade plus conspiring with nefarious foreign capitalists to overthrow Maduro and cause famine, with only limited success due to visionary PSUV agricultural policies and infrastructure investment. More seriously, probably on the right wing of the Coalition That Was Known As MUD Until The Supreme Court Dissolved It.
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Apr 7, 2019 01:31
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Bear Enthusiast posted:Has there been any indication that Guaidó would run for non-interim president, if that election happens? I didn't think he would be a candidate for President (bowing to Leopoldo Lopez), but the longer it goes on I think raises the likelihood that he runs.
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Apr 7, 2019 03:36
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Syenite posted:Ideally if Maduro is deposed or steps down (somehow doubt he'll do that, haha) and free elections are held, Venezuela will get someone better than US Puppet/Bolsanaro's Future Best Friend Guaido. Policy-wise can't see anything positive coming from him apart from Not-Being-Maduro. Let's not forget that Guaido is an EU puppet as well. And given the number of worldwide democracies that recognize Guaido, he's also a puppet of governments where voters choose their governments. Incidentally, which of his policies do you see as "not anything positive"?
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Apr 7, 2019 04:02
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Presenting Nipples posted:Why should the PSUV step down from leadership to placate a wealthy white dude backed by Elliot Abrams? I'm sorry, but how has no one called this out? Race shouldn't even enter the picture, but have you looked at a picture of Guaido? I feel dumb even asking this question, but what the gently caress? Rust Martialis posted:I mean if elections are held openly, Guaido has like zero chance of being elected president against the main opposition candidates, right? Guaido is, right now, the most popular opposition politician in Venezuela, which is equal to saying he's the most popular politician in general. However, I'd be willing to bet that when free elections finally come around, he'll decline to run and Leopoldo Lopez will take his place. To be fair, the opposition could pit a capybara against Maduro and that fucker would win in a landslide (which if it happened, would almost make this latest dictatorship-episode worth it) but we the Venezuelan electorate are very fickle in who we support, just like most countries. Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 06:51 on Apr 7, 2019 |
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Apr 7, 2019 06:45
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Guaido is white.
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Apr 7, 2019 07:34
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Judakel posted:Guaido is white. I mean, he's mestizo, but so is Maduro.
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Apr 7, 2019 08:11
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Epicurius posted:I mean, he's mestizo, but so is Maduro. How did race get dragged into this discussion?
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Apr 7, 2019 09:23
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Rust Martialis posted:How did race get dragged into this discussion? "Does race matter in Venezuela!?"
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Apr 7, 2019 09:37
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Judakel posted:"Does race matter in Venezuela!?" So why did you say he's white?
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Apr 7, 2019 11:22
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Labradoodle posted:I'm sorry, but how has no one called this out? Race shouldn't even enter the picture, but have you looked at a picture of Guaido? I feel dumb even asking this question, but what the gently caress? Not that people are gonna care, but I guess it could also be pointed out that as far as I can tell he doesn't really come from a wealthy background. His parents were middle class (teacher and airline pilot according to wikiepdia) and they lost their home in the 1999 Vargas natural disaster. Not to mention that probably any high up PSUV official is loads more wealthy anyway.
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Apr 7, 2019 12:58
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Randarkman posted:Not that people are gonna care, but I guess it could also be pointed out that as far as I can tell he doesn't really come from a wealthy background. His parents were middle class (teacher and airline pilot according to wikiepdia) and they lost their home in the 1999 Vargas natural disaster. Not to mention that probably any high up PSUV official is loads more wealthy anyway. So he's a race *and* class traitor clearly. 
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Apr 7, 2019 13:11
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Also the implication that maduro isn't disgustingly wealthy is ridiculous
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Apr 7, 2019 15:44
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zapplez posted:Also the implication that maduro isn't disgustingly wealthy is ridiculous Where is that implication made?
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Apr 7, 2019 15:55
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thatfatkid posted:Where is that implication made? Yeah I think pretty much everyone accepts the fact of massive corruption in the PSUV at this point, the billionaire bodyguard, etc. I mean Chavez seemed pretty clean? But nobody thinks Maduro is like Chavez surely?
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Apr 7, 2019 16:31
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Rust Martialis posted:Yeah I think pretty much everyone accepts the fact of massive corruption in the PSUV at this point, the billionaire bodyguard, etc. I mean Chavez seemed pretty clean? But nobody thinks Maduro is like Chavez surely? Chavez's daughter is allegedly worth over 4 billon. The PSUV is rotten to the core.
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Apr 7, 2019 16:38
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Rust Martialis posted:Yeah I think pretty much everyone accepts the fact of massive corruption in the PSUV at this point, the billionaire bodyguard, etc. I mean Chavez seemed pretty clean? But nobody thinks Maduro is like Chavez surely? Not sure what you're trying to say with this post as it doesn't address what was asked and comes across as needlessly smug.
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Apr 7, 2019 16:47
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thatfatkid posted:Not sure what you're trying to say with this post as it doesn't address what was asked and comes across as needlessly smug. Sorry if I was unclear, I was agreeing with you there no implication that I saw, but then that there's laughably no need for one, PSUV corruption being so manifestly demonstrated. Is that still too 'smug' for your liking, friend?
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Apr 7, 2019 16:53
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thatfatkid posted:Where is that implication made? There was a criticism of Guaido saying that because he is wealthy he shouldn't be supported, even though maduro is massively wealthier.
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Apr 7, 2019 17:20
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zapplez posted:There was a criticism of Guaido saying that because he is wealthy he shouldn't be supported, even though maduro is massively wealthier. Oh I missed that. I did see the racist attack on him, though.
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Apr 7, 2019 17:50
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Judakel posted:Guaido is white. I can't imagine this statement is based on anything but could you possible explain yourself? Or maybe Presenting Nipples, could you explain why you say Guaido is white? Is it based off a statement by Guaido, or something said by a Venezuelan publication, or what? edit: Using the claims like "Guaido is white" to dismiss him and his political movement is so weird an angle I haven't even seen it in Venezuelan state media. It's something I've noticed coming almost exclusively from North Americans. Squalid fucked around with this message at 17:57 on Apr 7, 2019 |
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Apr 7, 2019 17:53
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zapplez posted:Also the implication that maduro isn't disgustingly wealthy is ridiculous so, poking at this question a month or two ago had me actually raising my eyebrows a bit my investigation has been pretty darn cursory, but the net worth estimates (including US sanction related estimates!) I've seen so far for Maduro have him in the seven-figures range - which, sure, still pretty bad for an alleged socialist, but literal orders of magnitude below the most ludicrously wealthy PSUV kleptocrats (and/or druglords, hello el-Aissami) Afaict, which as above isn't necessarily that far, Maduro gets his kicks by just spending a buttload of actual budgeted money on his and his family's lifestyle. Like, low nine figures a year range. Which is also not terribly socialist but a chunk of that is legitimate or legitimate-ish head of state expenses; i can't be bothered to estimate how much of it is truly bullshit graft. Upshot: if Maduro's socking away large amounts of money, he's slightly better at hiding it than the rest of the PSUV and military leadership. personally, i'm tempted to hypothesize that he's not any better at thinking ahead in his personal finances than he is in running the country
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Apr 7, 2019 18:07
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zapplez posted:There was a criticism of Guaido saying that because he is wealthy he shouldn't be supported, even though maduro is massively wealthier. Where specifically is that argument made? Guaido being wealthy doesn't necessarily make maduro not wealthy.
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Apr 7, 2019 18:33
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thatfatkid posted:Where specifically is that argument made? Especially since Maduro has the entire corrupt PSUV apparatus behind him that has been pillaging Venezuela for a decade or more. Totally agreed there, friend.
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Apr 7, 2019 20:01
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Rust Martialis posted:So why did you say he's white? You're a bit behind, friend. He is white and race matters, friend. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Apr 7, 2019 20:30
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Reading this thread, I feel that what a lot of a newcomers to the thread don't understand that is bugging the Venezuelan natives and the regulars is the refusal to hold the PSUV accountable for the current crisis. Whether one likes it or not, the PSUV's officials and policies are major factor for the shortages as well as the political and economic turmoil in the country. Yet so many posters try to minimalize this as much as possible and blame the U.S. interference as the overwhelming cause of these issues, when the fact of the matter is that all of these problems have been going on for at least a full decade. Regardless of Washington now beating the drums of war, doesn't change that the PSUV has had a major hand in paving Venezuela's road to destruction.
punk rebel ecks fucked around with this message at 20:33 on Apr 7, 2019 |
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Apr 7, 2019 20:30
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Rust Martialis posted:Especially since Maduro has the entire corrupt PSUV apparatus behind him that has been pillaging Venezuela for a decade or more. Totally agreed there, friend. If maduro is currently pillaging Venezuela, what would you call guaidos plan to sell off publicly owned state assets and initiate austerity measures? Also kindly gently caress off with this disingenuous smug "friendly" gimmick, friend.
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Apr 7, 2019 21:03
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Judakel posted:You're a bit behind, friend. He is white and race matters, friend. You have a weird definition of white. Juan Gerardo Guaidó Márquez - just another whitey. 
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Apr 7, 2019 21:09
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Literally using a contrast scale like you're calibrating your monitor at the start of a game.
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Apr 7, 2019 21:24
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